Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Add This Story To All The Earlier iPhone Stories -- Running Out Of Inventory -- Sprint

Link here to CNBC:
Dan Hesse tells Cramer that business is so brisk, he can barely keep up.
It appears people want the new iPhone and they want it on Sprint. "We're beginning to run out of inventory," Hesse admitted to Cramer during an appearance on Mad Money, "especially the 5S."
Hesse's comments suggest that buyers of the new iPhone, which comes in multiple colors, are drawn to particular hues. "We are out of a number of them already," he added. 
The pricing is very, very good. See the link.

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; But Look At All The Producing Wells That Are Now Reported As Completed; Huge List With Some Outstanding Wells; Newfield Has A Great Well In Siverston Field; OXY USA Reports A Nice IP

Active rigs: 187 (steady)

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: KOG (2), American Eagle (2), Hess, Corinthian
  • Fields: Big Stone (Williams), Colgan (Divide), Timber Creek (McKenzie), North Souris, Bottineau)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Fifteen (15) producing wells were completed, one of the longest lists to date:
  •  24416, 2,855, Oasis, Garraffa 5693 41-11B, Alger, t7/13; cum 13K 7/13;
  • 23662, 444, Zimmerman 3-13H, Stoneview, t8/13; cum --
  • 23883, 1,617, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19D, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 23882, 1,817, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19H, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t9/13; cum --
  • 23881, 850, XTO, FBIR Bird 31X-19G, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t9/12; cum -- 
  • 23885, 1,566, XTO, FBIR Stephen31X-19H, Heart Butte, Three Forks, t8/13; cum --
  • 23884, 1,436, XTO, FBIR Stephen 31X-19D, Heart Butte, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 24084, 1,241, XTO, FBIR Stephen 31X-19G, Heart Butte, t8/13; cum --
  • 23507, 520, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-17D-08-5H, Four Bears, t7/13; cum --
  • 24444, 1,050, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-3, Alger, middle Bakken, t8/13; cum --
  • 22798, 561, Hess, LK-Obrigewitch 146-97-3427H-2, Little Knife, t8/13; cum --
  • 23500, 790, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-3, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum --
  • 24445, 515, Hess, EN-State B 155-93-1609H-2, Alger, Three Forks, t8/13; cum --
  • 24562, 748, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-5, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum --
  • 24869, 868, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-8, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum --
Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 23994, drl, Statoil, Margaret 5-8-3TFH, Spring Creek, no production data,
  • 24138, 449, Oasis, Inez 6093 43-19H, Gros Ventre, t3/13; cum 26K 7/13;
  • 24703, 572, OXY USA, Bernard Irwin 1-1-12H-143-98, Little Knife, t3/13; cum 18K 7/13;
  • 24725, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson 152-95-3328H-2, Hawkeye, no production data,
  • 24997, 1,820, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-4H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 21K 7/13;
  • 25197, drl, XTO, Allie 31X-24D, Capa, no production data

Apparently DOE Actually Backed An Energy Winner -- With Coal

Remember the "list of 38"? That is the growing list of solar companies funded by DOE that have all gone bankrupt or have had significant financial problems.

It turns out that DOE actually backed a winner -- a coal technology company. I cannot make this stuff up.

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Great River Energy, operator of the Coal Creek and Stanton station power plants, will transfer its unique coal-drying technology to Tangshan Shenzhou Manufacturing Co. in China.
The agreement allows the company to sell Great River's DryFining technology in power plants in China for 10 years, using Great River for design and integration services.
The technology was invented by Great River in a Clean Coal Power Initiative with the federal Department of Energy and is one of a limited few DOE projects that is now commercialized.
I believe a company in Australia, or the government of Australia, was also interested in this process; if my memory is correct (and it probably isn't) I blogged about it several years ago, somewhat amazed that Australia was shipping their coal to North Dakota to see if their coal would yield to the process. If that is accurate, I do not know how the test turned out.


There are a number of coal technology processes and a number of coal companies in North Dakota. I can never keep them straight: the companies nor the processes.

That's why I posted several stand-alone posts a long time ago to help me keep all of this straight:
Read those links first. Again, they were written a long, long time ago when I was still trying to figure things out. There are probably errors, but I will gladly correct them if alerted.

[I believe the correct spelling is "beneficiation," though it is spelled "benefication" on occasion according to wiki.]


A story published by The Bismarck Tribune on September 6, 2009, also had to do with drying coal, but was being done by GTL Energy, not Great River.
A million pounds of New Zealand lignite is en route to a southwestern North Dakota plant designed to remove water from the low-quality but abundant coal.
Once processed at the unique, new drying plant near South Heart, the fuel will be shipped back to the Southwest Pacific nation in chunks the size of barbecue briquettes, weighing at least one-third less, burning cleaner and producing more energy, said Robert French, the chief executive officer of GTL Energy USA Ltd.
Plentiful in North Dakota and other parts of the world, lignite can be used to fuel electric power plants. But it usually has a moisture content of 30 percent to 60 percent, meaning it is heavier and more costly to transport than other forms of coal.
"Lignite in its natural state can be one-third water," said Steve Van Dyke, a spokesman for Bismarck-based Lignite Energy Council. "For every three coal cars, the third one would be nothing but water."
But as noted above, I do not know if this test took place, or the results.


A reader provided the following after the original post:
The little physics/chemistry experiment on the prairie is GTL Energy.  Their process is in competition with the process you mention at Great River.

The GTLE site is just outside of South Heart, which is ten miles west of Dickinson.  For the last several years they have been processing quantities of coal from around the world to prove their process.
From a website:
GTL Energy Ltd (GTL Energy) was formed in Adelaide, South Australia, in 2000 initially to investigate coal-to-gas and gas-to-liquids technology for a specific project in Australia using low rank coal. This led GTL Energy to research and develop process technologies to convert low grade coal into higher rank fuel for cleaner, more efficient power generation, gasification and liquefaction. 
Low rank coal comprises sub-bituminous coal, lignite and brown coal, all of which contain substantial amounts of water (20% to 70% Total Moisture (“TM%”) by weight). Due to its high moisture content, low rank coal diminishes power plant efficiency and produces more emissions per unit of energy produced. 
GTL Energy’s primary objective is to upgrade low rank coal by removing a significant amount of water, thereby raising the thermal value, reducing emissions, improving the transportation and handling characteristics and increasing the market value of the fuel. Upgrading coal from low rank to high rank may result in access to stranded resources and a reduction in emissions.
In tests to date, the GTLE Process has reduced the moisture content of coals from around the world, thereby increasing the energy value and the dollar value of low rank coals.
Disclaimer:  I'm rushed right now, and might have to clean this post up. But as noted above, the various coal technologies and the various companies confuse me. I don't purposely mislead anyone. Regardless, it looks like the reader clarified this for me. Hopefully it's closer to being more correct than my original post.

More later, if necessary.

Wow, I learn a lot from this blog. Thank you to all the readers for keeping me honest.

Is Something Going On With Oasis?


Later, 1:50 pm CT: three related headlines:
Later, one minute later: just after posting the original post below, I went "around the horn," and almost all oil companies are having a good day today, some better than others. CLR is jumping, so it is not just Oasis, but Oasis is clearly the standout. Right now, it looks like the Goldman Sachs article linked below that is moving shale oil companies. And the one company GS recommends as a sell (WPX) is down over a percent.

Of the 53 new highs today: BCEI, CLR, OAS, WLL, WMS.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

On an otherwise flat day for the market, and on a day when the price of oil is falling, all of a sudden, out of the blue, after hitting recent highs, OAS pops another $2.00, up almost 5%.

I don't see any Oasis headlines (I will keep looking) but any stock that pops 5% without an obvious reason ....

KOG is up a percent, so the surge in Oasis could simply be due to analyst's ratings. Last week Sanchez mentioned four companies "with top fundamentals." The only energy company of the four mentioned was Oasis.

Today, I see Goldman Sachs, in Barron's, names Oasis and Approach Resources as top picks for US shale prices
Not all stocks are created equal, however, and the analysts expect some stocks to handily outperform others, and their top picks “are poised to deliver long-term, capital-efficient growth…while trading at attractive valuations that currently provide 20%+ upside to our price targets.” Their winners? Oasis PetroleumApproach ResourcesBonanza Creek Energy, and Gulfport Energy, all of which are rated Buy with Oasis also added to Goldman’s conviction list. Investors, however, should avoid  WPX Energy, which the analysts rate a Sell.
So, now back-to-back, in less than a week, one article in Barron's and one article in IBD both name Oasis as a top pick. 

How Will Lifting Iranian Sanctions Affect Price Of Oil?

Link here.

For 30-second sound bite, it looks like:
  • we're talking about 1 - 2 million bopd embargoed
  • the 1 - 2 million bopd is pretty much the increased amount that Saudi can provide
  • even if US - Iran become a bit friendlier, the sanctions won't go away overnight
  • once the sanctions are dialed back, Iran won't get new oil production to the market overnight
My hunch is that if US-Iran talks go well, the "risk" premium in the price of oil will be reduced, taking us back to about where we were before this all started, i.e., about $96.

NYMEX $91 to $99 is the sweet spot for Bakken operators from what I can see.

Over $100 can be a problem for hedges, derivatives for the Bakken operators.

Despite the price of oil continuing to fall in price today, all three US majors (CVX, COP, XOM) are all up today. As is the market. Barely.

I think share prices of oil companies will follow the stock market in general. As the price of oil goes down in an orderly fashion, the stock market -- all things being equal -- should rise.

I think the stock market will rise and fall based on global economy; political theater in Washington, DC; the US economy; and, easing of world tensions (we've already seen the latter).

Or stated another way: the shares of oil companies will follow the general market. The price of oil, as long as it rises or falls in an orderly manner, will have little long-term (> 6 months) effect on how shares in large- and mid-cap oil companies will do.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Apple Expansion; New Poll

MacRumors is reporting:
Last October, Apple began construction on the first phase of its Prineville, Oregon data center, a project ultimately planned to include two 338,000 square-foot data center buildings on 160 acres.  
Apple appears to be looking to add an additional 96 acres to its holdings in the area.
Apple has been on a data center building boom in recent years, opening a large facility in Maiden, North Carolina and moving forward on both the Prineville project in Oregon and another facility near Reno, Nevada. 
Apple's push into new data centers comes amid continued growth of Apple's digital stores, as well as growing iCloud services that require significant server capacity for Apple.
The company has committed to using 100% renewable energy at its data centers, building its own solar farms and fuel cell facilities in some cases and in other cases sourcing wind and hyrdroelectric power from local providers
Steve Jobs always talked about "skating to where the puck would be."

I think most folks assumed that Jobs/Apple "going solar" was for economic/public relations.  I don't think so. I think there's another reason. 

So, hold that thought.

I haven't updated any of the polls in several weeks (months?), so I need to update at least one.

I will update: favorite operator in the Bakken. The finals came down to:
  • CLR:  42%
  • KOG: 31%
  • WLL: 27%

So, now for the new poll. See the post above regarding Apple's commitment to 100% renewable energy. I personally don't think it has to do with public relations, the "right thing" to do, or economic reasons. I think there is another reason why Apple is committed to 100% renewable energy, and thus the reason for the poll. Sure, the other reasons facilitated the decision, but I think there was another reason. But don't let me influence your vote. When I close the poll, I will opine on what I think Apple made this decision (and, of course, I assume many readers know what I'm thinking and agree with me). 

Catty Remark For The Day

These guys are a lot smarter than I am, so I know they have their reasons for doing this, but naming all their wells "Smokey" wells regardless of which oil field they are in will eventually cause confusion and frustration among "everyone" trying to figure out what is what.

KOG has at least 14 "Smokey" wells in Pembroke oil field.

Now, they have another four "Smokey" wells in Ranch Creek oil field.

Both fields are widely separated, one in the southeast corner of McKenzie County, the other field farther north in the same county.

I count about 42 "Smokey" wells so far, including a couple of "Smokey" salt water disposal wells. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a year from now the well names are changed to designate "Smokey" as well as the oil field, such as "Smokey Pembroke."

For now, I guess we will just keep adding "Smokey" wells to the Bakken, to set some kind of record for the most wells with the same "first" name.

Whiting's (KOG) P Peterson Wells


February 5, 2017: graphic of the P Peterson wells at this post.

The wells.
  • 20563, PA/1,710, Whiting/KOG, P Peterson 155-99-2-15-22-15H, Epping, t6/12; cum 103K 7/13; middle Bakken?, 28 stages, 4 million lbs; there was no geologist's summary; the sundry form showed drilling only to the middle Bakken and yet the frack form said the "Three Forks formation was stimulated"; I think it is a middle Bakken well; a sundry form initially requested that this well be P&A until mid-2017; crossed out in ink and changed to September 30, 2016;
  • 21081, 2,053, Whiting/KOG, P Peterson 155-99-2-15-22-15H3, Epping, t61/2; cum 193K 12/16; Three Forks, 28 stages, 4.17 million lbs;
  • 26564, 1,878, Whiting, P Peterson 155-99-3-15-22-13H3, Epping, t5/14; cum 116K 12/16;
  • 26565, 1,516, Whiting, P Peterson 155-99-3-15-22-14H, Epping, t5/14; cum 115K 12/16;
  • 26566, 1,271, Whiting, P Peterson 155-99-3-15-22-14H3, Epping, t5/14; cum 94K 12/16;
  • 26567, 1,566, Whiting, P Peterson 155-99-3-15-22-15H, Epping, t5/14; cum 148K 12/16;

Random Update Of CLR's 14-Well Atlanta Pad In Baker Field Has Been Updated

Link here.

The CLR Linbeck Wells

These wells will be on a 14-well pad on the northeast bank of the river. The wells will lie in a slight diagonal (running northwest to southeast) in the SENE quadrant of section 6-153-93. "H" wells will alternate with H1 wells. I assume "H" wells will target the middle Bakken and the "H1" wells will target the upper Three Forks. Compare with CLR's Atlanta wells in Baker field southwest of Williston.
  • 26548, loc, CLR, Linbeck 1-6H, Alkali Creek,
  • 26549, loc, CLR, Linbeck 2-6H1, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26550, loc, CLR, Linbeck 3-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26551, loc, CLR, Linbeck 4-6H1, Alkali Creek,
  • 26552, loc, CLR, Linbeck 5-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26553, loc, CLR, Linbeck 6-6H1, Alkali Creek,  
  • 26554, loc, CLR, Linbeck 7-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26555, loc, CLR, Linbeck 8-6H1, Alkali Creek,  
  • 26556, loc, CLR, Linbeck 9-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26557, loc, CLR, Linbeck 10-6H1, Alkali Creek,  
  • 26558, loc, CLR, Linbeck 11-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26559, loc, CLR, Linbeck 12-6H1, Alkali Creek,  
  • 26560, loc, CLR, Linbeck 13-6H, Alkali Creek, 
  • 26561, loc, CLR, Linbeck 14-6H1, Alkali Creek, 
The northernmost well is 1609 feet from the north line.
The southernmost well is 1979 feet from the north line.
North-to-south: 370 feet.
The westernmost well is  855 feet from the east line.
The easternmost well is 602 feet from the east line.
West-to-east: 253 feet.

So, I assume the pad will be about 500 feet x 400 feet, 200,000 square feet.
640 acres = 27,878,400 square feet.
200,000/27,878,400 = 0.0071740
x 640 acres = 4.59 acres. So the pad will be about five (5) acres?

Tuesday Morning News, Views, Links

Active rigs: 187

RBN Energy: natural gas pipelines in the state of Florida; only Texas uses more natural gas for electricity generation than Florida, and Florida has no natural gas storage capacity (NIMBY?)

There's a lot of talk about a government shutdown (there have been many in the past; this will be nothing new). More worrisome for "someone" is if the US actually defaults on any of its debt. We've been through this before, and I may or may not blog about it. I don't know yet. All I know is that all presidents worry a lot about their legacies, and regardless of "who" is responsible for a default, history would record that for the first time in modern history, it was under President Obama that the US government defaulted. Good, bad, or indifferent; right or wrong, that would be the title of the chapter in the digital history book twenty-five years from now -- "The First Time The US Defaulted On Its Debt, President Obama's Second Term."

The Wall Street Journal Links

Heard on the street: Apple's dazzling weekend wasn't as dazzling as first reported. That was the headline. Then when I read the story, I had to LOL.  The writer really had to work at finding issues with the blowout weekend. One can read the article a completely different way and realize it was even more impressive than the iPhone 5 launch last year. This year's launch and the article at the link suggests that Tim Cook has logistics figured out. And there was "almost" plenty of inventory, and certainly better than the previous launch one year ago.

Other related articles:
Apple sells 9 million iPhones over the weekend; perhaps more impressive was the announcement that ...
... more than 200 million of its devices already were running iOS 7—a free overhaul released last week of the operating system used on iPhones, iPads and iPod Touch devices.
As noted earlier, unlike Microsoft upgrades (in general), Apple provided iOS 7 free of charge. Analysts had predicted six to seven million units would be sold versus the 9 million sold. Again, the article did provide caveats. LOL.

Meanwhile, Microsoft announced that it upgraded its Surface tablets. To be honest, I was not aware they were still selling Surface tablets. I thought the article lacked any specifics and the individuals who commented thought the same thing. The "press release" said the battery time was extended but no specifics given. The comments suggest the battery charge is quite short compared to the iPad.
At Sprint, they are running out of 5S inventory

Regular readers know I am an Apple Fanboy. Fanboy #3 to be exact.

Another story, from another source, is reporting: Yahoo!Finance is reporting:
Investors are finally weighing the damage Apple may be inflicting on Pandora Media and its popular online radio service.
Apple said on Monday that 11 million people have already listened to its copycat service, which is included in the new iOS 7 operating system for iPhones and iPads. On Tuesday Pandora founder Tim Westergren conceded that Apple’s entry into the market would have a “modest” impact on his company, which has about 72 million monthly active listeners.
Pandora investors largely ignored the potential threat until this week. Shares of Pandora have climbed 167% so far this year, including 62% since Apple officially announced iTunes radio on June 10. The company also priced a secondary share offering last week, raising a war chest of nearly $400 million.
But after Apple released iOS 7 last week, huge numbers of Pandora fans started sampling the competition. They flocked to Twitter and posted about their disloyalty. Pandora shares lost 10% Monday, bouncing back less than 1% Tuesday.
My hunch: if Pandora survives, it will either find an inconsequential niche, or it will be absorbed by another social networking company. But I doubt any one of your ten closest friends will be talking about Pandora two years from now. Maybe one of your hundred friends might mention it in passing.

It turns out there was legitimate concern about using wi-fi devices on airplanes. The FAA moved toward mandating replacement of Honeywell displays on more than 150 Boeing 737s and 777s, after earlier tests showed susceptibility to interference by Wi-Fi.

Burger King will try "new" French fries. Burger King is going after what it calls "lapsed users" with new french fries that promise fewer calories and less fat.

If you thought you were imagining this, you weren't: U.S. regulators are putting the kibosh on more mergers under President Barack Obama, prompting many companies to structure their deals with stronger safeguards against the risk of antitrust challenges.

If you thought you were imaging this, you weren't: The number of people caught illegally entering the U.S. is up for a second straight year, adding fuel to the debate over whether the border should be better secured before any overhaul of immigration laws.

No child left behind continues to disappoint. Florida is dialing back its participation in a national group developing exams for tougher math and reading standards known as the Common Core, dealing another setback to an effort that has come under increasing fire.

Not a day too soon: Lois Lerner, the official at the center of a congressional probe into the IRS, has retired, the agency said. She had been on leave since shortly after a controversy emerged in May over the agency's targeting of tea-party groups.

Talk about a weak argument. That's the purpose of a background check: to screen out the liars. The suspected Navy Yard shooter lied during the security-screening process when he joined the military, according to documents released by the Pentagon.

You have to love this headline: Kenya believes all hostages are free. Yes, that's the headline. I guess they chopped off this part: "... or dead."

Whatever happened to Syria? Again, a word search on front page of on-line WSJ did not reveal even one instance of "Syria

The Los Angeles Links

Computer glitch cuts off 80,000 Californians from receiving their unemployment checks. State officials apologize for delays in processing unemployment benefits but many jobless Californians are falling behind on bills because of the malfunction in a computer system upgrade. Anyone who thinks the weekly jobless figures are even close to accurate any more ....

This I find most interesting: Egypt bans the Muslim Brotherhood. Even Mubarak couldn't get that done. This is quite fascinating. My hunch is that "outside money" forced the decision.

The New York Times Links

Top story above the fold, with photograph, a story not on the front page of the LA Times:
The outcome of a legal challenge to a plan to reduce benefits in San Jose is expected to have a major impact on local budgets around California and, perhaps, the nation.


NBCSouthernCalifornia is reporting: disabled no longer get to move to head of line. Everyone tired of scams. Best news I've read all day.