Locator: 50175B.
Iran: has a new leader.
Israel: has a new target.
France: to send two warships to the Red Sea. Why?
- on that news, the price of oil dropped from $120 to $98
British contribution: begrudgingly offers one base in England; and, Diego Garcia, but with caveats, limitations, warnings, small print, and lots of bluster
KSA (Saudi Arabia): clearly getting ready to join the allies.
*****************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $98.80. Overnight went as high as $120, or thereabouts; has dropped back significantly after markets open.
New wells reporting:
- Tuesday, March 10, 2026: 10 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year,
- 42086, conf, Scout Energy, TNT 1,
- Monday, March 9, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
- Sunday, March 8, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
- Saturday, March 7, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
- 41602, conf, BR, Sivertson 6E,
- 40632, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-5,
RBN Energy: for the US, "energy dominance" doesn't mean going it along. Link here. Archived.
A
major theme under the second Trump administration has been the concept
of “energy dominance,” with a focus on expanded drilling, increased oil
and gas production, and an easier path to project permitting and
approvals. Despite that shift in approach, the U.S. remains critically
intertwined with the global market as a source of supply and demand for
everything from crude oil and feedstocks to gasoline and renewable
fuels. In today’s RBN blog, we explain why the goal of “energy
dominance” doesn’t mean going it alone.
For a prime
example of the U.S.’s advantageous position, let’s start with the
refining sector. The U.S. boasts the world’s second-largest refining
complex (after China) but has the most complex/dynamic facilities and
significant edges over other developed economies in access to crude oil
and natural gas. And while domestic demand may be stagnating, the U.S.
remains a global leader in refined product exports, in large part due to
the structural advantages noted above, but also, and probably even more
importantly, due to the free-market environment in which the industry
is allowed to operate.
The
other major refining markets face their own set of headwinds. While
China surpassed the U.S. to become the largest global refiner by
capacity in 2023, it remains focused on meeting domestic, not export
demand. Refined product growth there is slowing, due in large part to
the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a greater focus on
petrochemical production, along with a deteriorating demographic
environment. Refinery capacity additions are also slowing in the Middle
East, where refiners face high capital costs and significant
geopolitical risks — highlighted by the ongoing military strikes by the
U.S. and Israel against Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Iran against
some of its neighbors — dimming the outlook despite their advantaged
crude and natural gas supply. India’s refining sector has seen the
fastest growth in recent years, and its private refiners are large,
complex and efficient. It has benefited from access to sanctioned
Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine, and additional growth in
Venezuelan crude production could bring future benefits (more on
Venezuela below), but India will remain dependent on imported crude and
natural gas, with the potential for additional regulatory issues and
higher costs.
We should also note the downbeat
outlook for Russian and European refiners. For Russia, continued
sanctions and a lack of outside investment (and technology) are causing a
“slow bleed” in refinery conditions and capabilities. The longer the
war with Ukraine continues, the more significant the impacts are likely
to be. We should also note those problems won’t automatically disappear
if/when the war ends, and Russian refiners could find themselves with
decreased (or no) access to European markets for the long term. The loss
of Russian crude oil and natural gas also poses major challenges for
European refiners, who are already disadvantaged by higher operating
costs, a difficult regulatory environment, declining populations and
stagnant economic growth.
The U.S. refining sector
has a number of inherent advantages, but a significant part of its
success is that it doesn’t operate as an island unto itself. For
starters, U.S. refiners import significant volumes of crude and
feedstocks — primarily heavy crude/resid and low-cost intermediates,
which complex refineries can upgrade very cost effectively. As shown in
Figure 1 below, the U.S. has continued to import significant quantities
of crude oil (blue line) even as domestic production (green line) has
more than doubled over the past 15 years and crude exports (orange line)
have steadily moved higher, now averaging about 4 MMb/d.
