Locator: 50568AI.
Elevator speech: Mythos --
- from the same folks that brought you Claude (Anthropic)
- Claude on steroids
- new generation of chatbots (three breakthroughs [at least[)
- users: cybersecurity folks for CIA / NSA / DOD - level work
- purpose: for defense
- risk: could be used for offense in the wrong hands (offensive attacks)
- among the new generation of chatbots that can check their own work - huge breakthrough
- and, they check their own work against the results of other chatbots
******************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $88.62.
New wells reporting:
- Monday, April 20, 2026: 63 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 220 for the year,
- 42183, conf, BR, Omlid 5-8-7 TFH,
- 41875, conf, Phoenix Operating, Nystuen 20-17-8-5 5H,
- 41874, conf, Phoenix Operating, Nystuen 20-17-8-5- 4H,
- 41873, conf, Phoenix Operating, Nystuen 20-17-8-5 2H,
- 41872, conf, Phoenix Operating, Nystuen 20-17-8-5 1H,
- 41788, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo Federal 14X-12H-N,
- 41786, conf, Phoenix Operating, Nystuen 20-17-8-5 3H,
- 41733, conf, Hess, EN-Binger-157-94-1201H-4,
- 41389, conf, Hess, BW-Sharen Lynor-E-149-100-2032H-1,
- 41320, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-17-7H-1,
- Sunday, April 19, 2026: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 210 for the year,
- 41787, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo Federal 14X-12C-N,
- 41732, conf, Hess, EN-Binger-157-94-1201H-5,
- 41441, conf, Hess, GO-Seaton-156-98-0607H-4,
- Saturday, April 18, 2026: 50 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 207 for the year,
- 41442, conf, Hess, GO-Seaton-156-98-0607H-5,
RBN Energy: California refinery closures, Persian Gulf issues strain PADD 5 product supply. Link here. Archived.
The West Coast (PADD 5), particularly California, has been the U.S. region hardest hit by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly regarding the Golden State’s ability to obtain refined product imports. California has endured a string of refinery shutdowns in recent years and more are expected in the future, making imports — especially of jet fuel and gasoline — critical to meeting regional demand. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how the strait’s closure has impacted PADD 5 imports.
We should note at the outset that reopening the strait was a key condition of the two-week cease-fire announced by the U.S. and Iran on April 7, but vessel traffic remained very limited after the agreement. Some hopeful signs appeared on April 17 with the declaration by Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on X that Iran had fully opened the strait for commercial traffic due to the cease-fire negotiated between Israel and Lebanon. How “open” it really is — and whether it can be sustained — remains highly uncertain.
The war against Iran not only created a chokepoint for global shipping at the Strait of Hormuz, it also directly hit the flows of refined products and LPG that underpin the Pacific Basin fuel market. As we discussed in Eyes of the Ranger, with the strait effectively blocked to virtually all shipping for the last several weeks, large volumes of crude oil, LPG, naphtha and refined products bound for Asia were suddenly stranded, forcing refiners in South Korea and elsewhere to cut runs and curb gasoline and jet fuel exports.
The disruptions caused by the war have been a much bigger deal for PADD 5 than other areas of the U.S. Refining capacity in the West Coast region has shrunk faster than demand in recent years, and the region has increasingly leaned on imported gasoline and jet fuel from Asia to cover shortfalls. But the strait’s closure squeezed the Pacific product pool and caused Asian suppliers to pull back, further tightening the PADD 5 market for gasoline and jet fuel. There have been several major changes in California’s refining sector in recent years, including conversions to renewable fuel production and outright closures:
Conversions
- Marathon Martinez: Marathon’s Martinez refinery, a roughly 150-160 Mb/d crude unit, stopped production in 2020 and began producing renewable diesel (RD) in late 2022, ramping to full renewable‑fuels capacity through 2023-24. This conversion permanently removed a big chunk of gasoline‑making capacity from the Bay Area.
- Phillips 66 Rodeo/Santa Maria: Phillips 66 (P66) stopped processing crude at its former 80-Mb/d refinery in Rodeo (also near San Francisco) in February 2024, switching to renewable fuels feedstocks to produce RD and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Earlier, in 2023, P66 closed its Santa Maria refinery on California's central coast. This refinery had a capacity of 40 Mb/d and was operating together with Rodeo and the total lost capacity of the combined complex was 120 Mb/d.
While some parts of the converted facilities continue operating, they no longer produce conventional transportation fuels, effectively removing a substantial share of in-state gasoline supply, with their SAF production only partially replacing the lost conventional jet fuel.
Closures
- P66 Carson/Wilmington: P66 announced in October 2024 that its Los Angeles-area refinery complex would in close Q4 2025; it ultimately shut in November 2025.
- Valero Benicia: Valero announced in April 2025 that it planned to cease operations at its 150-Mb/d Bay Area refinery in Benicia within a year. It ceased operations in February 2026.
This means California has lost about 575 Mb/d of conventional refining capacity from closures or conversions, resulting in a significant supply drop in an already constrained market. These losses are driving a structural shift. Total imports of transportation fuels into PADD 5 climbed to more than 300 Mb/d in October and November (dashed red box in Figure 1 below), coinciding with the P66 Los Angeles refinery closure and increased reliance on foreign supplies into California. Most of the growth was in gasoline (green bar segments) and jet fuel (blue bar segments), while imports of ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD; yellow bar segments) were not a big driver. The import surge aligned not only with the P66 changes but also with ongoing disruptions at other California refineries, especially PBF’s Martinez (Bay Area) plant, which was fully shut after a February 2025 fire at its cat feed (VGO) hydrotreater and has been running at only 85-105 Mb/d since early Q2 2025 (compared with its nameplate capacity of about 157 Mb/d). That refinery is only just now returning to full rates. As refinery runs gradually recovered from fall maintenance and Martinez edged toward full operation, imports pulled back in December and January but remained ahead of year-ago rates.
Figure 1. PADD 5 Import of Transportation Fuels By Type. Source: EIA, RBN
