Locator: 52068TECH.
Update
For investors, a great review of the competition among NVDA, AMD, Marvell, and Broadcom, see this link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/PWiXutU88cwdHjIUr.
Apple's Baltra, by the way, has hit a timeline snag. What it means: link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/N5qkckHjcAVttt2UD. Analysis suggests this delay is not "fatal" but it's an expensive delay for Apple. I wouldn't think an Apple investor would like to see the word "fatal" in any analysis of the company.
Oracle:
Google: link here.
Original Note
For investors, estimated 2027 P/Es: link here.
For investors, this is the real question with regard to AI and the "stock market":
- was this simply background noise that is always part of the market:
- profit taking, reaction to exuberance, and end-of-year actions by the mutual and hedge funds; or,
- was it a "reset" for the entire AI sector.
My hunch: a combination of both -- a reset (or at least a re-evaluation of how the AI sector build-out is progressing ... at the end of the day, one can howl at the wind, but AI is here to stay.
The fear-greed meter reminds us: investors are always greedy; no matter how good it is, they want more. If not fearful, they would not be successful investors.
The fear-greed meter is not the same as a gasoline gauge in one's car: when the gasoline gauge needle gets to the far left, the driver has only one choice if she wants to continue driving. On the other hand, the investor has many, many choices when the fear-greed needle gets to the far left (fear).
Amazon (AMZN): perhaps this summarizes the status of AI right now -- link here. Link: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2115957138132804069.
That pace is roughly 6,000 accelerators a day, and customers are
absorbing it almost as fast as it comes online.
Two other details from the call add context: AWS backlog is $578B, up
over 100% YoY, and inference is now well over half of AWS's AI revenue. [To put that backlog in perspective, Boeing's backlog is $750 billion. Boeing's backlog one year ago was pretty much the same, at $640 billion.]
Inference demand recurs every day, which makes this spending look less
like a one-time build-out.
Inference (this is really, really important): Inference is the core computational process of running a trained AI
model to generate a single output or answer, whereas agentic behavior
(or agentic AI) is a multi-step, autonomous framework that uses
inference repeatedly to plan, use tools, and solve complex goals. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/ZzOxCV5BL697TKOyK.
For investors right now, moving into the last two months of the year:
- where are the safe havens?
- where are the huge opportunities?
- where to place new money between now and December 31st?
- reminders:
- RMDs by the end of the year;
- 4Q26 quarterly estimate not due until January 15, 2027.
Centers of gravity:
- Elon Musk's xAI and SpaceX;
- Oracle;
- Broadcom.
Links here:
Query to ChatGPT: what to follow.
Reply: it was a very, very long reply, but it suggests I'm on the right track -- link here. Link: https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6ae615fd65788191a97961c994c47d1a.
Same query to Gemini resulted in this reply -- link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/HuF4JVzqbP4rvoTGO.
What is the status of Colossus 2 right now. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/NZKfSVivL2Vf3OPWZ.
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Disclaimer
Briefly:
I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution. I've
now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately
exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general
public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended
family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my
extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.Longer version here.
