Saturday, January 28, 2023

Fascinating — January 28, 2023

Link here: https://freewestmedia.com/2023/01/05/volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-will-contribute-to-global-cooling/.

John Kerry, et al, bet on the wrong horse: mankind should be more concerned about global cooling than global warming. 

Pop Quiz: Reefers — January 28, 2023

Pop quiz: name the two states with highest percentage of households owning “separate” freezers.

50 points for naming one of the two states.

75 points for naming both.

100 points for putting the two states “in order.”

Extra credit: name the US state with the highest percentage of households that own two or more refrigerators.

Hint: no states are reported twice in this survey.

Answer: at this site.
  • refrigerators: Idaho
  • freezers: South Dakota, followed by North Dakota
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Recipes

Fettuccine Alfredo. 

Saturday Morning -- Part 1 -- Remember: We're In A Recession And It's Only Gonna Get Worse -- January 28, 2023

Laser-focused on dividends: ten companies that raised dividends this past week (remember, we're in a recession):

  • CVX, KBM, NSC, CMCSA, ADM, HAL, MRO, NUE, BLK, HCA, SPGI, SCHW.
  • Barron's has a negative article on railroads; 
  • CMCSA headlines were bad when earnings reported;
  • CVX: well, what can I say?
US crude oil, commercial supplies, days of supply: second consecutive week the number of days increases; setting recent records. Link: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_VSD_NUS_DAYS&f=W. More than four weeks. For this time of year, more than twice as long as needed.

Investing: in 50 years of investing (rare, occasional, short-term exceptions), two sectors in which I never invested: airlines and refiners. That changed this past year.
 
Transition: it appears some investors were unaware of the post-Covid global re-opening. I was not unaware, but I did not anticipate some of the major changes. McKinsey, et al, should have been incredibly busy the past twelve months, but my hunch: probably not.

The nice thing about investing: if a particular equity concerns you, there are 15,000 others among which to choose.
 
Natural gas:

Fed policy: signs it may be working (https://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1619162528772235265).

US debt:

  • link here; as a percent of tax receipts —
    • US interest payments so we could have nice things / tax receipts: 2.5% (needs to be fact-checked)
    • amount to spend to have a nice house 28% of income
  • link here, fact checking: looks like I'm correct;
  • pet peeve: when folks don't provide denominators, and/or don't put things in historical perspective; and, myths about global warming -- but that's about it -- that's about the only pet peeves I have.
  • oh, one other pet peeve: hand-wringing over money spent by government during Covid-19 lock downs
  • and one more: PSA (police standing around).


 


Railroads: link here

Friday, January 27, 2023

Cost Of Renewables -- January 27, 2023

Compare my utility bill (below) with that of a similar-size apartment in northern California

  • The northern California bill:
    • about 60 kwh / day
    • trending toward $900 / month
  • the northern Texas bill:
    • about 25 kwh / day
    • total bill: about $120 / month

Our entire monthly bill -- we have no natural gas. We only have electricity. 

My wife and I are taking no extraordinary measures to save energy, using whatever we want.

The "December polar vortex / cyclone bomb" did affect this bill.

Friday End-Of-Day Report -- January 27, 2023

Egypt: currency crisis. Link here.

And some folks think JPow is being too aggressive.

Germany, 2022: oil imports rose eleven percent; crude oil import bill doubles. Link to Julianne Geiger.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $79.98.

Natural gas: $3.109

Eight new permits, #39605 - #39612, inclusive:

  • Operators: Oasis (5); Ovintiv (3)
  • Fields: Alger (Mountrail); Cottonwood (Mountrail); Sandrocks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for three Jammer wells and two Heron wells, SWSE 32-157-92; 
      • the Heron wells to be sited 2035 FEL with one 400 FSL and the otheer 445 FSL; 
      • the three Jammer wells bo be sited 1995 FEL and at 695 FSL, 740 FSL, and 785 FSL;
    • Ovintiv has permits for three Barracuda wells, SWSE 35-151-100, 
      • to be sited 939 FSL and between 2208 FEL and 2168 FEL:

Three permits canceled:

  • Lime Rock Resources: three State Dvorak permits in Dunn County, Manning oil field

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35412, 150, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Austin 3-17-20-158N-99W-MBH,
  • 38240, 2,971, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-1HLW,
  • 38241, 2,470, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-12H,
  • 38242, 1,707, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-2H,
  • 38243, 1,405, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-13H,
  • 38792, 968, Ovintiv, White Butte 146-98-34-27-1H,