Thursday, January 20, 2022

Inappropriate Exuberance -- January 20, 2022

I just spent the last thirty minutes or so looking at some incredible wells around Killdeer, ND, and my inappropriate exuberance has just gotten worse -- if that makes sense, and if that's possible. 

The Bakken, simply, never ceases to amaze me. But I'm burned out looking at all these wells. I will come back to them tomorrow if I can find the time. I've posted the wells and their full production elsewhere but not at the blog. Not ready for prime time.

I will be taking care of Sophia, seven years old, for the next two days -- we have a full school schedule. Her school district just closed all schools in the school district -- multiple elementary schools, two middle schools, and two high schools. The number of students and staff testing positive is now reached "critical mass." Most are asymptomatic; those that are symptomatic are ill for eighteen hours. There are exceptions.

Sophia's sister felt fatigued and congested three nights ago (MLK Monday); went to bed early; felt "back to normal" the following afternoon. Covid test today came back positive -- seventy-two hours after it was taken and when she was back to normal. But with a positive test she can't participate in soccer tournament this weekend though it will be five days and she feels completely normal now. But she says she has so much schoolwork she welcomes the break. 

The students are loving it. Ninety-nine percent are asymptomatic including the ones that are testing positive -- if symptomatic, lasting less than 24 hours. There are exceptions, of course. 

But I'm really impressed with the school district. The administration and the teachers have not missed a beat. E-mails update us daily. The administration just as a calm, matter-of-fact, decided to close the school for two days (and the weekend, for a four-day weekend) so that everyone can take a breather. I'm really impressed with the school. "Everyone" is vaccinated; taking everything in stride. Masking has sort of become optional. Some families/students are very, very serious about masking; others not so much. No one seems to judge anyone; my wife and I wear our masks everywhere. My wife wears her mask because she is seriously concerned about the disease. I wear the mask to show my "support" for her and the teachers, even the teachers that don't wear masks. I don't know what the guidelines are any more. I don't care. 

Tonight at the wine tasting put on by the apartment complex manager, well attended, no one wore masks, not even me. I guess deciding to wear a mask is sort of "what are the others doing?"

Sophia and her two sisters are vaccinated. All adults in the extended family are vaccinated and with a booster shot. The dad had a fairly severe case about a year ago. My wife and I have probably had it but never tested. Based on symptoms over the past two years, my wife has probably had it twice; I've had it three times based on symptoms and contacts. Never tested. 

And so it goes. 

While all this was going on, several members of my extended family have tested positive in Tucson, AZ. That story is even more interesting than our story here in Texas.

And then my sister and her husband and their grandchildren who live in Williston, ND, flew out to Hawaii for their annual winter vacation. The retired sister / brother-in-law go to the "big island" for a month or so every winter; the grandchildren join them for a week -- they arrived this time just as the Tonga tsunami warning hit. I missed the whole story because I was fielding calls on all the family members with Covid but apparently my sister almost drowned off the dock in Hawaii trying to save the $8-flip-flips she had just bought at the ABC Store. But her high school senior grandson saved her. 

And so it goes. 

And, then of course, the family members on Flathead Lake, one of whom also had Covid. 

Mind you, all these calls and updates were coming in tonight. I was on the cell phone with one family member (Sophia's mom); my wife was on her phone with another (California); and I was on a FaceTime call with yet another (Flathead Lake, MT) on the 27-inch desktop iMac. 

And finally, the four-member family in Portland, OR, with that son-in-law with a fairly severe chest cold due to Covid but not hospitalized and the twins ill for three days. Our Portland, OR, daughter did not become ill. Again, all vaccinated, boosters, masks, minimal time away from home. 

And so it goes. 

All this in the last week; most of it tonight.  

None of the above is hyperbole, but they are my observations. I'm sure other family members would describe things differently. 

I just posted this the other night but I enjoy it so much, I'm going to post it again, come on, Eileen,

Come On Eileen, Sugarland and Sara Bareilles


What's WTI doing? I see it has slipped just under $87, at $86.90. I wonder if Nancy Pelosi is enjoying her ice cream tonight?

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

A Little Comedic Relief -- WTI Just Went Over $87 Again -- January 19, 2022

Link here.


"One State's Trash Is Another State's Treasure" -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

Whiting With One New Permit; Four Permits Renewed; $87-WTI -- January 19, 2022

Active rigs: NDIC list 30 active rigs; one is a SWD rig; one rig is listed twice:

$86.96
1/19/202201/19/202101/19/202001/19/201901/19/2018
Active Rigs2812566858

One new permit, #38741:

  • 38741, loc, Whiting, Joanna TTT 11-6H, to be sited in Sanish oil field, lot 4 section 6-153-91; 532 FNL and 752 FWL

Four permits renewed:

  • CLR: fous Chloe permits in Williams County;

MRO Charchenko Wells In Murphy Creek

The wells:

  • 36196, PA, MRO, Raleigh 44-20H, Murphy Creek,
  • 36197, AL/A, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 155K 11/21;
  • 36198, AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
  • 36617, AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;

To the east, drilled in 2009 and had a huge jump in production, in mid-2017;

  • 17449, 128, MRO, Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 262K 11/21; huge jump in production, 8/17 - 9/17;

Farther east: this second generation daughter well drilled four years after the parent well; and has produced just as much as the parent well; something that "we've" been told isn't supposed to happen:

  • 25256, 1,398, MRO, Michael Charchenko 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t8/13; cum 254K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017;

Farthest east, in same section:

  • 17599, 307, MRO, Charchenko 34-21H, Murphy Creek, t2/09; cum 156K 11/21; small halo effect summer of 2017; nice halo effect in autumn of 2014;

So, there you have it. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me:

  • three generations of wells: two parent wells; one daughter well; and three granddaughter wells:
  • the second generation wells showed a halo effect; and will be better than the parent wells, something we're told doesn't happen; and,
  • three granddaughter wells (there would have been four, but one was canceled, at least for now) and they will be better than the previous two generations: and, on top of all that,
  • lots of room for more wells.

***********************************
Corky Hosted A Wine Tasting Earlier Today

Corky invited her out-of-town relatives.


Wine tasting with Corky's family and friends:


Agree 1000% With BofA --Tesla -- January 19, 2022

I didn't read the article. just saw the headline.

From ZeroHedge: Tesla's market share will collapse "in next few years."

I wonder if the article mentions these two things:

  • Tesla just pushed back its biggest money-maker: the CyberTruck, ceding first mover advantage to Ford; and,
  • no style changes in any of the Tesla models since originally launched; this didn't hurt Saab ... except Saab no longer makes cars.

SAAB Automobile initially went bankrupt in 2011 and, after a brief period under another company, stopped producing cars under the Saab name in 2014. Therefore, no, Saab is no longer making cars. ... SAAB is a Swedish company that began in aerospace and defense in the 1930s. -- Source.

The "best" two cars we ever owned were Saabs; owned them at the same time, a "his" and "hers." Both cars served us well while overseas. We left them in Europe in perfect condition. Gave the first one away when we left Germany, on our way to Turkey, and then gave the other one away when we departed Turkey. I remember well giving the first one away; don't recall who got the second car. Would have been left at Incirlik Air Base, Turkey. They were built to European specs and would not have passed US specs. US manufacturers protect(ed) their turf.

The Incredible XTO Johnson Trust Wells; A Closer Look At An XTO Well That Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago -- January 19, 2022

The well:

  • 35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 33-053-08573, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21;
    • FracFocus: fracked 8/30/21 - 9/11/21; 8.76 million gallons of water; a typical/moderate frack for the Bakken; 88.77% water by mass;

Full production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021295991859089361791382141379290
BAKKEN10-202100140000
BAKKEN9-20212182044439660966

Three wells of interest, east to west, nearest to farthest from #35047:
  • 17439, remains off line following recent #35047 frack;
  • 27203, huge jump in production after #35047 fracked;
  • 27204, never came off line while #35047 was fracked;

Graphics:




The XTO Johnson Trust wells:

  • 35044, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021305859858587250621480931428384938
BAKKEN10-20212660387603642990913836213806726
BAKKEN9-20212102702953255402554
  • 35045, PNC, ...21X-6A, Siverston;
  • 35046, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, Siverston,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021304663446725322121041421001383872
BAKKEN10-2021256140061356445201262541236722452
BAKKEN9-2021272607144324203242
  • 35047, see above
  • 35048, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston,  minimal production, 9/21; no more as of 11/21;
  • 35049, drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021306572465576327681494051436605555
BAKKEN10-2021266450264735387221416451387492751
BAKKEN9-20212104204170307703077
  • 35050, PNC, ...21X-6G, Siverston;

Updating The Last Few Wells That Reported No Production When They Came Off Confidential List Two Years Ago, 1Q20

Note: in a long note like this, there will be many content and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Earlier this week I went back and updated every well that came off the confidential list in 4Q21 -- one quarter ago. I noted that except for a handful of Slawson wells all wells that came off confidential list in 4Q21 were drilled to depth, completed, and showing some production. 

Now, let's go back and clean up 1Q20, two years ago. Some time ago I updated that list and found a lot of DUCs.

Let's update those DUCs. When I went back and looked at those wells off confidential list 1Q20, two years ago, the following were were still DUCs or in "drl" status, or no production data provided:

  • 36626, SI/NC, XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 35851, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte,
  • 35850, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, 
  • 35852, drl, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte,
  • 35854, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, 
  • 35853, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, 
  • 35047, drl, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, 
  • 35856, drl, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, 
  • 35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,  
  • 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa,  
  • 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F,
  • 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, 
  • 36665, SI/NC, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days;
  • 34951, drl/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production;
  • 34954, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal,
  • 34953, drl, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, 
  • 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, 
  • 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, 
  • 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
  • 36617, conf, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20;
  • 36198, conf, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; 
  • 36564, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
  • 33424, drl,  Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, no production data
  • 36793, drl, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 35424, SI/NC, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
  • 34392, drl, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 32461, drl, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, no production data;  
  • 34851, SI/NC, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059;
  • 36943, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek;
  • 36942, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek;
  • 34377, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH,
  • 33806, SI/NC, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --; 
  • 34378, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34373, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek,
  • 31794, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  
  • 36944, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek,  
  • 34375, drl, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34395, drl (2/21), White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek, 
  • 36308, drl/IA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole:  

I may have missed a few but I posted at least initial production from the rest of the wells that came off confidential list 1Q20.

So, now, let's see if any of the above wells have reported at last some production:

  • 36626, SI/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 35851, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19E, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35850, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, , XTO, FBIR Stephen 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35852, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR STephen 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35854, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19B, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 35853, drl/NC-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19F, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • ****35047, drl,-->drl/NCW, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 60K 11/21;
  • 35856, drl-->drl/NCW, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • ***35049, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, no change in well status but huge production; first production, 10/21; t--; cum 131K 11/21;
  • 36424, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 35048, drl/NC, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, status of well unchanged, although minimal production 9/21; none after that;
  • 36425, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36665, SI/NC-->AL/A, PetroShale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, 25K over 23 days; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 126K 11/21;
  • 34951, drl/A-->AL/A, Petro Harvester PTL4 10-15 163-92 D, Portal, minimal production; first production, 11/19; t--; cum 70K 11/21;
  • 34954, drl-->AL/A, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 C, Portal, A Madison well, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 56K 11/21;
  • 34953, drl-->255, Petro Harvester, PTL4 10-15 163-92 B, Portal, a Madison well, t1/20; cum 92K 11/21;
  • 36427, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36426, drl/NCW, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, unchanged, 11/21;
  • 36680, drl, XTO, Mariner 13X-36POW-H, Bear Creek; see this note;  
  • ***36617, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 159K 11/21;
  • ***36198, conf-->AL/A, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, not reported as of 2/18/20; first production, 8/19; t--; cum 193K 11/21;
  • 36564, drl-->286, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t1/20; cum 210K 11/21;
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,  
  • ***33424, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 5-5H, Little Knife, first productioni, 11/21; t--; cum 27K 11/21;
  • 36793, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Harris Federal 2-32H, Lone Butte, t--; cum --; still no production data provided as of 11/21;
  • ***35424, SI/NC-->5,455, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, 33-061-04288, Reunion Bay, t1/20; cum 410K 11/21;
  • 34392, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil, Jore Federal 5-12H, Clark Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 94K 11/21;
  • 32461, drl-->drl/A, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 32K 11/21;
  • ***34851, SI/NC-->SI/A, CLR, Pittsburg 8-18H, 33-053-08510; Banks, first production, 1/20; ***t--; cum --; fracked 6/3/19 - 6/21/19; 11.1 million gallons of water; 88.7% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.059; cum 246K 11/21;
  • **36943, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24H, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 184K 11/21;
  • ***36942, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 210K 11/21;
  • 34377, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 55K 11/21;
  • 33806, SI/NC-->SI/A, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 190K 11/21;
  • 34378, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 76K 11/21;
  • 34373, drl-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  • 31794, drl-->F/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson,  first production, 10/20; t--; cum 219K 11/21;
  • 36944, drl-->drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 163K 11/21;
  • 34375, drl-->drl/A, White Butte, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 61K 11/21;
  • 34395, drl (2/21)-->drl/A, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH, Clarks Creek,  first production, 7/21; t--; cum 38K 11/21;
  • 36308, drl/IA-->PA, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltman's Ocelot 1-21, Wildcat, target: Lodgepole

I think some interesting observations can be made. 

How Bad Is It? BuzzFeed Just Collapsed -- January 19, 2022

Link here.

Crude Oil Futures Expiration Dates -- Current Contracts Expire Tomorrow -- Volatility Noted -- Pushing Toward $88 WTI -- January 19, 2022

Link here

Symbols:

  • CLG22
    • C: crude oil
    • L: light crude
    • G: February
    • 22: year (2022)
  • Months:
    • January: F
    • February: G
    • March: H
    • April: J
    • May: K
    • Jun: M
    • Jul: N
    • Aug: Q
    • Sep: U
    • Oct: V
    • Nov: X
    • Dec: Z