The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Friday, July 3, 2026

High Band Memory Chips: Not Just A Shortage Of Factories (FABS) But Also A Shortage Of Feedstock -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51104LDCS.

Query: the memory chip companies in South Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix) are touting huge factory buidlout. What is Micron doing?

Reply:

Query:

When do you think the memory chip shortage will turn the corner. Everything I read suggests it won't be until 2028. There's a lot of CAPEX now being spent on building fabs -- starting late 2025 and these factories likely to start production in 2027 but customers won't see these new chips until 2028. Your timeline?

Reply:

I see this as good-to-great news for investors (and those employed to build these factories) but not good for consumers in the short term.

Chip Companies Fortunes Fall In 2Q26; Palantir Stock Jumps -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51103AI.

Mixed story on AI:

lots of NIMBY talk;
infrastructure supply-chain shortages: chips, energy
software companies took a big hit earlier in the year
more recently, chip-making companies are taking a hit

but Palantir: stock jumps; "profits have soared"; link here.

huge gain in share price past two days after falling significantly

Palantir unveiled a new AI partnership with Nvidia
DA Davidson analyst upgrades stock to a buy rating; raised target to $175
currently trading at $130
"growing twice as fast as any of its competitors": Snowflake, Shopfiy, Datadog, CrowdStrike

AI is very much still in high growth, high demand

but elements of the buildout remind me of the Bakken when it went from boom to steady-state (maintenance) stage
Palantir's 5-year price curve resembles the standard "S-curve"
breakout/surge began late 2024 / early 2025
peaked, overshot, and then moved back down

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Disclaimer

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Longer version here.

Mixed Story On EV Sales In US: Tesla With Blowout Quarter; Ford Sales Decline 10% Overall Due To 40% Fall In EV Sales -- July 3, 2026

Locator: 51102EVS.

Note: I have no particular interest in EVs; simply a spectator; I find the whole sector fascinating -- it seems so variable among companies.

Very mixed story on EV sales in the US in most recent quarter.

Ford EV sales plummet -- "as EV demand tumbled"
GM's EV sales also tumbled
Tesla: blowout deliveries -- suggesting EV demand is growing

Ford: link here. Overall, all sales -- 10% drop in 2Q26 sales due to significant drop in EV sales

2Q26:"waning EV demand continued to hit results";

Ford EV sales fell 41% in 2Q26 to 9,746

Mustang Mach-E off 31%

F-150 Lightning down almost 60% (actual: 58.6%) --

the F-150 Lightning has been discontinued

hybrids slid 20%: noteworthy given gains seen by direct rivals Honda, Toyota
1H26: Ford's EV sales are down almost 60% (actual 57.4%)
F-Series (non -EV):

continued sales weakness
Ford says due to continued fallout from last year's aluminum shortage

GM: EV sales tumbled, also --

a common theme in the US after expiration of the federal EV tax credit

that tax credit ended 3Q25

Tesla:

25% y/y increase in deliveries -- 480,126 EVs
easily surpassed Wall Street expectations -- 406,000 - 420,000 units
blowout performance: company's first y/y delivery growth after two consecutive years of annual declines

**********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Longer version here.