Friday, April 24, 2026

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The $64,000 question: if push came to shove, how fast could South American / Latin American oil replace Middle East oil. My hunch: faster than folks think.

SLB earnings out this morning: before the opening.  

Wow, wow, wow. Peter Zeihan touched on it again today -- the challenge of America's light crude oil (shale). 

Canceling the Keystone XL was the biggest energy mistake made in recent history. Like in the past 100 years. That may be the real reason we're seeing high gasoline prices in the US. We have an excess of oil; unfortunately for our consumers and the refiners, it's the wrong kind of oil. That's a very simplistic but sometimes simple is good. 

Jones Act: by the way, which type of oil was the first to be loaded upon announcement of the Jones Act wavier. Yup Bakken. This is the link if you need it.

Nscale's Monarch: CAT and BESS. Link here. This story simply gets bigger and bigger. CAT up 3.3% ($26 yesterday) and will hold that gain today. Do you know that a year ago one could have bought CAT at $300? Today? $835. And CAT pays a dividend. Comparing INTC vs CAT:

• one day: CAT
• five day: CAT
• one month: INTC
• six months: INTC but close
• one year: INTC but close
• five year: CAT by a landslide
• and, oh, did I mention, CAT pays a dividend? Albeit not much but that's probably due to the astronomic rise in share price.

Oil prices: $95 is the new baseline. 

We've had three shocks to the system -- the OPEC embargo back in the 80s; Covid, 2020; and now the war. This time around, the numbers don't make sense and it seems analysts are more hopeful than realistic. Seriously, do you think we're back to $60 oil by summer? Airlines can't catch a break. 

Iran: two huge developments --

• Trump's order to "shoot and kill" the fast boats; and,
• Kharg Island storage tanks should be full by the beginning of next week; if so, Iran will need to start shutting in its wells.

Intel's numbers: they don't add up. But the story/myth/hope is bigger than reality. Is there a possibility that Intel has become a meme stock?

Nvidia is scrambling. It's all about the CPU / GPU ratio and AMD is on the winning side right now. 

MSFT: stumbling? Co-Pilot just the tip of the iceberg? But, wow, it's very, very difficult for MSFT to do this; absolutely did not want to do this. Not exactly a Hobson choice, I suppose, but that's what comes to mind. Others also trimming: META and Amazon. LDCs are costing them a bundle.

MSFT will cut employees by 7% -- first time in history that MSFT has cut employees? It's even a huge story in The New York Times. Link here. First time in its history? Yes, that's true: As of April 2026, Microsoft is taking a historic step in its 51-year history by offering voluntary retirement buyouts to U.S. employees for the first time. This move is aimed at restructuring the workforce, rather than a traditional involuntary layoff, and targets long-serving staff. Dead wood.

Insane: all of a sudden the energy crisis is all about Pakistan. Seriously? 

For heaven's sake, it's a developing nation: as of early 2026, Pakistan’s economy ranks roughly 42nd–45th globally by nominal GDP (approx. $376 – 408 billion), placing it among developing nations. While its GDP per capita is quite low (around – ), ranking near 162nd, its large population supports a high PPP rank (23rd–27th). PPP: purchasing power parity.

Rail vs trucking: with investing, I learned during the Bakken revolution that at the end of the day, US transportation at the broadest level is "rail vs trucking." 

The size of the transportation pie is pretty much stable; the slice of your piece of pie varies based on relative support for one or the other. Top discriminator? Price of diesel. Trains are so much more fuel efficient; trucks are so much more flexible. This explains UNP's recent share price surge, I would suppose.

52-week high and look at that dividend: UNP will likely increase it's dividend in August, 2026, lifting it to $1.42. Could raise it as early as May, 2026. If it hits $1.42, that would be a 33% increase in its dividend since 2021. Has your salary increased by 33% in the past five years?

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $97.77, going into the weekend. Pre-market.

New wells reporting: 

• Saturday, April 25, 2026: 83 for the month, 83 for the quarter, 240 for the year,  
  
  42085, conf, XTO, GBU Hera 33X-7C, 
• 41097, conf, Enerplus, Lind 145-97-2-11-6H, 
• 41096, conf, Enerplus, Lind 145-97-2-11-5H, 
• Friday, April 24, 2026: 80 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 237 for the year,
  
  • 42184, conf, BR, Omlid 6-8-7 MBH, 
  • 41862, conf, Devon Energy, Finn 13-25F 4H, 
  • 41362, conf, Devon Enegy, Marvin 27-34 5H, 
  • 41361, conf, Devon Energy, Marvin 27-34 4H, 
  • 41095, conf, Enerplus, Lind 145-97-2-11-4H, 
  • 41094, conf, Enerplus, Lind 145-97-2-11-3H, 
  • 41093, conf, Enerplus, Lind 145-97-2-11-2H-WLL,

RBN Energy: propane exports to increase i 2026 as war with Iran shifts market dynamics. Link here.  

These days, there are three main factors affecting the propane market: export economics, export dock space and storage levels. The war with Iran has dramatically shifted export economics and filled dock space, yet storage remains at all-time highs. In this two-part blog series, we will look closer at all three factors and provide our outlook for what’s in store for the remainder of 2026. In today’s RBN blog, we will review how we got here and discuss the upcoming changes in the supply/demand balance.

Propane inventories as of April 17 were 80 MMbbl — more than 23% higher than they have ever been this time of year. How did propane storage get so high? The math is simple. Figure 1 below illustrates the changes in both supply and demand. In 2025, total gas plant production (dark-blue bar segment at left) increased by 117 Mb/d, supply from refineries (orange segment) increased by 8 Mb/d and supply from imports (dark-green bar segment) increased by 7 Mb/d. At the same time, total domestic (non-export) demand (light-blue bar segment at right) increased by 46 Mb/d, with export demand (purple bar segment) rising by the same amount. This resulted in a total supply increase of 132 Mb/d and a total demand increase of 92 Mb/d. The balance is growth in storage of 40 Mb/d (light-green bar segment). That may not seem like a lot in a 2.7-MMb/d market, but multiply that figure by 365 days in the year and you end up with a 15-MMbbl storage surge.

Figure 1. U.S. Supply/Demand Changes for Propane, 2025. Source: EIA

One New Permit; Two Permits Renewed; Seven Permits Canceled -- April 23, 2026

Locator: 50600B.

WTI: $97.11. Trending toward $100 again, on no specific news.

Active rigs: 23.

One new permit, #42859 --

• Operator: CLR,
• Field: Beaver Lodge, Williams County;
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Langved well, SESW 2-155-95, 
• to be sited 420 FSL and 2587 FWL; 1920-acre spacing; bottom hole, NWNW 26-156-95.

Two permits renewed:

• Whiting: two Roggenbuck permits, Sanish, Mountrail County.

Seven permits canceled:

• Oasis: five Domalakes permits, Burke County; one Merganser permits Bottineau County; and, oe Owan permit, Williams County. 

INTC Surges -- April 23, 2026

Locator: 50599INTEL.

Tag: INTC. 

The Intel story today was an incredible story. It will be interesting to see how analysts interpret what this all means. 

AI query:

Intel surprised everyone. It appears that CPUs are becoming the chokepoint. The CPU / GPU ratio is getting back to "normal." Do you see it that way? 

Reply: 

Agree completely. Link here. 

Agree completely. Link here. 

Agree completely. Link here. 

Ticker: 

 

Link here.

Amazing that Pat Gelsinger couldn't do this.
 

This is pretty amazing:

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Micron

Link here.  

WTI Spikes; Shares Of Majors Follow -- WTI Now Trading Above $96 -- April 23, 2026

Locator: 50598JONESACT.

Tag: Jones Act Waiver 

The War: 

Giovanni Staunovo appears to be taking at face value analysts' reports that it is Trump's "truth social" tweets that are preventing any diplomatic breakthrough. It gets tedious. Link here. 

Apparently some folks prefer an Iran with nuclear weapons controlling the strait, and along with it, the entire Mideast, I suppose. 

The only tweeting in my feed today: Giovanni Staunovo. Wow. 

Everything being reported by Staunovo with regard to the Mideast suggests we might as well hunker down to a three-year Korean-War-like truce. Seriously. It will be interesting to see what the next administration will do. No president ever did end the "Korean War," and history, even if it doesn't repeat itself, does tend to rhyme. If we have a three-year Korean-War truce and the overall western economy GDP does just fine, it means one thing: Mideast fossil fuel is irrelevant after 2028. Seriously. 

By the way, speaking of which. Qatar has recovered! Qatar is now shipping natural gas despite the destruction of its export terminal in Qatar. If I can find it, I will post the link. Yup here it is -- see next section. Qatar's LNG export terminal is spelled "Sabine" and pronounced "suh-BEAN" or "suh-BEEN." 

Qatar:  

Oil traders are reading the blog. From oilprice:

I'm lovin' it. Anyone who thought we were close to a diplomatic breakthrough ...  

Back from biking, time for a bit of The Rockford Files.  

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Manhattan

Citadel appears to be backing away from a major expansion in downtown Manhattan. Link here. Why Citadel would plan to expand in the socialist capital of America is beyond me. Prior to the mayoral election: 

It's too soon to pivot to Dallas but that's obviously where they're looking. Perhaps, more specifically, Plano, TX.

Link here. 

If Ken Griffin goes ahead with his NYC plans, it tells me all I need to know about Ken Griffin.

New 52-weeks highs today: link here. Just some of them. And this was a huge down day for the market, at least during the noon hour.

Beth: AI? AI? It's all about memory. Link here.

Ethan BeWarned is worried about the fact that Qatar can no longer provide the helium that is needed to cool chip lithography. LOL. A doomscroller. Does the Permian produce any helium?

Doomscrollers: it's like playing whack-a-mole.

I have to quit. This could go on forever. 

Go Trump! Go Hegseth.  

For The Journal / For The Archives -- April 23, 2026

Locator: 50597ARCHIVES.

This is for the extended family; nothing about the Bakken and not much about anything else. 

Not for the general readership. 

Family update:

Granddaughters:

• oldest granddaughter racking up the air miles between DFW and SEA, visiting significant other as often as possible.
• middle granddaughter having taken college courses in Peru and the Galapagos is now off to the Marshall Islands. Still has her eyes set on playing polo for the college team; the one and only time she has been on a horse was when she was in the Boston area in second grade. She also has 14+ hours flight time and two solo fights with the USAF -- from a couple of summers ago, California dessert. No interest in pursuing. Been there, done that. Favorite (?) college course: music, specifically German Techno; one three-hour class each week during which all they do is listen to music. 
• the youngest granddaughter is watching soccer and jiu-jitsu from the sidelines due to a "boot"on her right ankle/foot from a sprain that is slowly recovering. I don't think she needed it; she could have toughed it out, but she's loving the rest and the attention. 

Grandsons: six-year-old twins; home-schooled. just got their first-grade certificates in reading; now reading at second-grade level. Where they excel? Arithmetic and singing. One of the twins probably reads at third-grade level; the other prefers to discuss the history of Egypt, mummification, and purple dye from Murex snails. 

Wife: will not be happy if I write anything about her.

Me? First visit to a physician since 2018. I thought it was 2016, but it looks like it might have been 2018, eight years ago. I thought it was ten years ago. Although I couldn't pass the USAF requirements for the mile-and-a-half run, I passed the general physical -- so, if I'm called up, I'm ready to go. No meds, no follow-up labs, no nothing. Next visit: one year from now. If I remember, I will come back to this later. 

The US market has been on a tear, but today, a pullback led by Microsoft. 

BRK-B finally had a good day, but BRK-B is still way off it's historic highs. Huge disappointment for new investors, I would think. 

The Iran war is at (another) turning point. 

Hegseth has sacked the US Secretary of the Navy (well deserved; should never have been appointed in the first place; discussed at length elsewhere). Iran's leadership is incredibly divided: hard-liners who want to live the good life vs hard-liners who want to be martyrs. Trump appears to be perplexed. Nonetheless he is tightening his grip on the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of Iran. Today he issues a "shoot-and-kill-on-sight" order -- for the US Navy to take out the "fast boats." The fast boats will go back into their shell(s) to come out to fight another day. 

AI/LDC: Nscale's West Virginia Monarch announcement is a game-changer. CAT, up as much as $31 earlier has pulled back as the overall market has pulled back. 

Investing: made major changes in portfolio. No new positions, but sold two huge disappointments and replaced with more shares of a particular US retail giant in which I already had a position. I live and breath investing and blogging. Seldom does one get these opportunities to make major changes in the portfolio. I don't think I have made such major changes in over a year. Again, did not add any new positions; simply added to existing positions, and completely eliminated one position. 

Best lunch deal: McDonald's -- double cheeseburger, small fries, and no limits on soda refills, $3.23 -- all in, with tax. 

The double cheeseburger is free today -- for the 2026 season, North Texas McDonald's offers a free McDouble (with an addition $2.00 minimum purchase) via the McDonald’s app when the Texas Rangers turn a double play at a home game. This "Double Play" offer is typically valid at participating DFW-area locations until 11:59 p.m. the day after a qualifying home game. At Starbucks, $3.23 will get me a tall coffee. The Texas Rangers double play - free double cheeseburger is this year's go-to luncheon for me.

Biking: ten-mile round-trip daily, except on the weekends; either for hash browns, coffee and real orange juice at McDonald's for breakfast or the "$3.00" McDonald's lunch. And I bet I weigh less a year from now than I do now.

Reading this week: really, really excited about Paul and The Jewish Annotated New Testament, NRSV, Second Edition, Oxford, c. 2010. Notes at this post plus elsewhere. 

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The Book Page

The Jewish Annotated New Testament, NRSV, Second Edition, Oxford, c. 2010. Notes at this post plus elsewhere.