Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Posted Tuesday Night For Wednesday Morning -- November 3, 2026

Locator: 52082B.  

WTI: $95.30.

New wells reporting:

  • Friday, November 6, 2026: 4 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 569 for the year, 
    • None.
  • Thursday, November 5, 2026: 4 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 569 for the year,  
    • None.
  • Wednesday, November 4, 2026: 4 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 569 for the year, 
    • 41909, conf, Devon Energy, Owan Trust North 29-28-27F 2H, 

RBN Energy: national fuel gas becomes last gas utility to de-integrate by spinning off upstream unit. Link here. Archived.

Western New York-based National Fuel Gas (NFG), founded in 1902, has evolved into an energy industry unicorn — the only U.S. company fully integrating exploration and production, midstream gathering and transportation with downstream utility sales of natural gas. For more than a decade, NFG resisted the financial, strategic and investor pressures that led virtually every other major utility to exit the upstream in a wave that peaked in the 2010s. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the factors that drove the company’s October 14 announcement that it would split into two listed companies and evaluate the implications for natural gas development in Appalachia.

NFG was one of numerous entities spun out of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company, uniting former Standard Oil Natural Gas Trust interests in Western New York and Pennsylvania. The company evolved into an umbrella for gas supply and distribution with milestones that included development of the first U.S. underground natural gas storage reservoir in 1916 and absorption of two pioneering Appalachia gas E&Ps in 1913 and 1928. By the mid-1970s, the company internally segmented its Western New York utility into NFC Distribution Corp., its interstate pipeline and storage assets as NFG Gas Supply Corp., and its upstream operations as Seneca Resource Corp.

In the volatile energy industry, NFG has stood out for its conservative fiscal strategy and investor focus: the company has 124 consecutive years of dividend payments and 56 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. However, NFG wasn’t immune to the pressures to accelerate upstream growth. Seneca Resources acquired a 75% interest in Argo Petroleum’s California oil and gas properties in 1987 and drilled its first offshore Gulf well in 1994. However, neither initiative achieved significant scale. NFG’s firm commitment to its long-standing dividend policy meant that Seneca chose not to join its E&P peers in outspending cash flows to compete in the wild land grab that marked the beginning of the Shale Revolution in the early 2000s.

Until the 1990s, ownership of upstream assets was normal for vertically integrated gas utilities. Merchant-energy subsidiaries explored and developed gas production fields to secure supply and fill storage-linked reservoirs. Federal deregulation in the 1990s expanded wholesale competition and pushed utilities toward their regulated businesses. They began shedding volatile, capital-intensive E&P assets less aligned with regulated returns. Balance-sheet pressure increased in the 2000s, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. Utilities prioritizing stability found eager buyers in expansion-focused independent producers. Virtually all exited the upstream, including major utilities such as MDU Resources, CenterPoint Energy, Dominion Energy and Sempra Energy. 

NFG was the notable exception, committing to its fully integrated strategy. Because of capital constraints, Seneca Resources focused its path to participate in shale growth on its Appalachia base. In 2009, the company drilled its first operated Marcellus shale well in Tioga County, PA. To integrate assets across the chain, and based on its long history of pipeline development and construction, Seneca formed National Fuel Gas Midstream Corp. to build gathering facilities that brought Seneca’s Appalachian production to market. Seneca exited the Gulf and wound down its California operations after ramping up Pennsylvania development as Appalachia rapidly expanded into the leading U.S. unconventional natural gas play. National Fuel Gas Supply Corp., which had acquired Duke Energy’s Empire North pipeline in 2003, funded a series of expansion projects from 2010 to transport higher volumes of produced gas to its Western New York/Pennsylvania utility service area and to other connected markets on its pipeline system.

In May 2020, as the E&P industry struggled with a steep, pandemic-induced plunge in commodity prices, NFG’s financial stability allowed it to make the largest acquisition in its then 118-year history: the $505 million purchase of Shell’s upstream and gathering assets in northern and western Pennsylvania. The deal boosted Seneca Resources’ total proved reserves, Appalachia gas production and total Appalachia acreage by 23%, 36% and 52%, respectively, while adding 142 miles of gathering assets and 300 MMcf/d of firm transportation capacity. Seneca accelerated exploration and development capital spending from $360 million in 2020 to $538 million in 2022, boosting output 30% from 900 MMcf/d in 2021 to 1.16 Bcf/d in 2025.

Seneca’s exploration and development capex declined to $465 million in 2025 and we expect it to remain flat in 2026. However, NFG projects a 50% increase in its firm transportation capacity to 1.5 Bcf/d by 2030, driven largely by premium Pennsylvania demand from data centers and industrial development. Seneca Resources boasts an Appalachia inventory of more than 25 years, with a $2.25/MMBtu breakeven at the current development rate, and an independent Enverus assessment confirms the company’s inventory depth is at the top of its peer group. The inventory allows significant development acceleration to meet the growing demand.

But funding that growth could be an issue under NFG’s current integrated structure. As production increased, Seneca and the associated gathering assets (Integrated Upstream and Gathering, or IUG) accounted for an increasing share of NFG’s earnings, reaching 68% of fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA (blue slice in Figure 1 below), far outpacing its Pipeline & Storage (orange slice) and Utility (gray slice) segments.

The Stock Of The Day? AMD -- November 3, 2026

Locator: 52081AMD.  

See disclaimer: these are simply observations; no recommendations are being made, implied, inferred. 

I'm seeing two things:

  • advancements are being made at breakneck speed; and,
  • the stock market can be unforgiving.

AMD, earnings, November 3, 2026. Is this a jump from 5nm process to 2nm process? 

Link here. 

Link here.

Link here. 

Earnings:

Ticker: 


I track "chips" at this page. The last time I updated these AMD chips went only through EPYC Genoa. Now we're up to EPYC Venice. It even appears "wiki" at that link has not been updating everything -- it's just moving way too fast. I'm no longer tracking these chips for the most part, except Apple's chips. 

More: 

And greater detail: 

For Intel investors, this is the next question to ask: How is Intel coming along with their 14A process chip yet to be delivered?

Compare Intel's six-month chart with AMD's full year chart above:

Four New Permits; One Permit Canceled -- A Little Bit Of Denbury - XOM History -- November 3, 2026

Locator: 52080B.  

WTI: $95.64. A lot of dots to connect, but is Hegseth out?

Active rigs: 39. 

Four new permits, #43447 - #43450, inclusive --

  • Operator: KODA Resources
  • Field: Daneville oil field, Divide County
  • Comments: 
    • KODA resources has permits for four Ale wells, SESE 15-161-103, 
      • to be sited 756 FSL and 470 / 575 FEL. 

One permit canceled:

  • 31110, Spotted Hawk, War Eagle 22-42H, McLean County.

Change of operator, from Denbury to MMGL MT I, LLC -- about 300 wells, all (?) in Bowman County; South Red River wells.  


 

More Than Just Oil Near Marmath, North Dakota -- November 3, 2026

Locator: 52079DINOTRACKS.  

A Tyrannosaurus rex footpath has been discovered in southwestern North Dakota near the town of Marmath, North Dakota, in the far southwest corner of the state near the border with Montana.

Dinosaur footpaths are extremely rare and this is the first adult T rex footpath. 

Link here. 

Monday, November 2, 2026

The Midnight Hour -- November 2, 2026

Locator: 52078AAPL.  

Pageviews: 112,118,466 -- a 24-hour run rate of 1,227,464. 

Status: currently on an incredibly bumpy red-eye flight, somewhere over the Rocky Mountains; the pilot did not mention anything but the back-end crew said the inbound flight they were just on was incredibly bumpy; told us to strap in and hold on. They weren't kidding.

Items that might be driving the run rate:

  • Apple's earnings
  • the book page: Etty Hillesum; Hunter S Thompson
  • the breakdown of US fighters/bombers 

Apple's earnings -- much, much more here.  

Greed vs fear? Nope. Simple craziness. Here's the headline:

Here's the verbiage in the story:

On the earnings call, Apple said it expects revenue to increase between 7% and 10% on an annual basis in the December quarter, compared to the 6.1% average analyst estimate. Comment: 10% is well ahead of 6% -- and Apple tends to be conservative in its estimates. 

The company’s gross margin forecast for the current quarter is 45% to 46%, trailing the 46.3% average estimate. Comment: 46% estimate vs 46.3% estimate and, again, Apple, tends to be conservative in their estimates.

By the first of December, something else will come along affecting Apple's share price. And so it goes. 

******************************
The Book Page

Re-posting: 

Etty Hillesum

The "adult" Anne Frank.

From an earlier post over at my literature blog: this softcover was packed away some years ago. 

Etty Hillesum: An Interrupted Life and Letters from Westerbork, with a foreword by Eva Hoffman, c. 1996. 
---bought another copy at a used bookstore, Portland, OR, October 30, 2026, softcover, $5.
-- Eva Hoffman, born in Poland, 1945, about the time Etty Hillesum died
-- emigrated to Canada at age 13; Harvard graduate; ultimately the pinnacle of American writing. 
More. connecting with Hunter S Thompson -- link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/9IbLNIIdtt4LVnZaW.  
 
In Etty's Diary and Letters, softcover, page 102:
Slowly but surely I have been soaking Rilke up these last few months: the man, his work, and his life. And that is probably the onlky right way with literature, with study, with people, or with anything dlse: to let it all soak in, to let it mature slowly inside you until it has become a part of yourself That, too, is a growing rocess. Everything is a growing process. And in between, emotions and sensations taht strike uou iek lightning. But still the most imprtant thing is the organis process of growing.
Etty would die in a German-Polish concentration /extermination camp (Auschwitz) within a year or so of writing that in her diary, and she knew it, and yet she remained at peace with circumstances and able to keep writing with an element of optimism, if not for her, for the human race.
 
Meanwhile, my Rilke at about the same age (for me) was Hunter S Thompson who wrote when the hope of the counterculture of 60s died in the early 70s.  

"The Wave Speech" from Hunter S Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, 1971.

"We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. . . . So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."