Saturday, April 18, 2026

Someone Finally Noticed -- The Warren Buffett Watch Newsletter -- April 18, 2026

Locator: 50571BRK.

Link here.

For what it's worth, the article is clickbait. The headline says it all. 

Meanwhile, it's being reported that Greg Abel has just sold more of BRK's AAPL shares.

Apparently he didn't like the headline.

Previously reported. The Apple headline above.

Very Few Publicly-Traded Companies Can Swing $100-Billion Deals -- Has Cash Ever Been Such A Moat? April 18, 2026

Locator: 50570MOAT.

Look at this: Google Gemini considers $100-million tech deals as "scraps." In my AI prompt, I misspoke, it should have been $100-billion+ deals, not $100-million+ deals, but Gemini answered my question. Correcting the prompt sorts things out. The companies below need $100-billion deals to move the needle; top-tier AI start-ups require $100-million deals.

AI prompt:

I would suppose this is a boring subject for you -->investing. But with AI and the tech companies, it now seems, that at the end of the day, less than ten publicly traded companies can "do" $100-million deals. Your thoughts?

Reply:

Investing in the AI era is indeed anything but boring; it has created a "Winner-Take-Most" dynamic where a tiny group of American giants possesses nearly all the dry powder required for $100 million+ deals. 
As of April 2026, there are approximately seven to nine publicly traded American companies with the specific combination of massive cash reserves and strategic AI positioning to consistently execute such deals. 
The "Magnificent" Dealmakers:

These companies, often referred to as the Magnificent Seven, hold over $600 billion in combined cash and short-term investments as of April 2026. 
  • Alphabet (GOOGL): Currently leads the tech sector with approximately $126.8 billion in cash. Its $400 billion+ annual revenue driven by AI cloud growth makes it a primary "megadeal" contender.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Holds roughly $123.3 billion in cash. Its AWS division generates over $100 billion in annual revenue, providing the liquidity for massive infrastructure and AI acquisitions.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Maintains about $89.5 billion in cash. As a leading AI infrastructure player, it often executes multi-billion dollar partnerships (like its ongoing support for OpenAI) rather than just $100 million "scraps."
  • Meta Platforms (META): Has roughly $82.4 billion on hand. Despite heavy AI capital expenditures, it remains highly profitable with consistent net income growth. 
  • Apple (AAPL): Currently holds $66.9 billion in cash. It is widely viewed as a "core holding" for investors due to its ability to push AI features to hundreds of millions of devices. 
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): The current world leader by market cap, holding $62.6 billion in cash. Its dominant 80–95% share of the AI training workload market has transformed it into a massive cash-generating machine. 
The Financial Powerhouses

Outside of "pure" tech, two legendary American firms maintain the scale to dwarf these tech companies in sheer liquidity: 
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): Currently the most cash-rich company in the U.S., sitting on $164 billion. 
  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Led by Warren Buffett, it holds a record cash pile of $373.3 billion. Buffett has notably kept this "big money" on the sidelines, waiting for opportunistic moments amid the AI spending boom. 
The Deal Concentration

While these giants can easily stroke $100 million checks, the market is seeing a "squeezed mid-tier." In early 2026, most AI venture funding was concentrated in just three companies raising $1 billion+ rounds, while everyone else was left "fighting for crumbs" in the $100 million range. 

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Apple

I was surprised to see how far Apple's cash hoard had dwindled. I spoke to Google Gemini about that. Gemini says it is Apple's plan to become "cash neutral." That seems foolhardy or it suggests Apple is incredibly confident about its future. It should certainly he a headwind for AAPL stock since its cash horde had become such a meme for Apple investors. 

Berkshire Update -- Barron's -- April 18, 2026

Locator: 50569BRK.


From the linked article:
Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B -0.11% may have sold about $15 billion in stocks during the first quarter that were managed by Todd Combs, who left in December for an investment role at JPMorgan Chase.

CEO Greg Abel decided to unload the stocks that had been managed by Combs, who ran an estimated 5% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio that totals about $300 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Berkshire doesn’t disclose which stocks in the portfolio are run by which manager. Combs and investment manager Ted Weschler, who remains at Berkshire, had run a total of about 10%; Chairman Warren Buffett handled the other 90%.

As CEO, Abel now oversees the portfolio, with Weschler responsible for about 6% of the holdings. Abel succeeded Buffett as CEO at year’s end.
Combs knew it was time go to. He was 54 years old when he left BRK for JPM. 

I guess at 63 years of age, Ted Weschler has really no place else to go, except retirement.  Greg Abel is also 63 years of age.  Both are eligible to start taking social security. 

Exactly what is Weschler's role as "investment manager at BRK? 

It's not as if we weren't warned a year ago:


And MDU pays a dividend:

Anthropic's Project Glasswing -- Mythos -- AI -- Scientific American -- April 18, 2026

Locator: 50568AI.



What is Mythos?
a) It's a highly advanced generative AI model and a large language model specifically optimized for cybersecurity. It is not a general-purpose chatbot meant for public use. 
z) While it was trained to be a general-purpose model it is particularly useful in completing cybersecurity-related tasks that involve multiple steps. 
The jump from (a) to (z) is particularly interesting and I can't wait to discuss this with ChatGPT or Google Gemini later. As ChatGPT would say, "there's a lot to unpack there."

Before we get started: a reminder -- this model was designed for defensive purposes. It turned out to be better than expected. Much better. A good offense begins with a good defense. 

To begin:
In the wake of Anthropic’s announcement of its latest artificial intelligence model, Mythos, on April 7, the company has stood by an unusual decision: refusing to release it to the public. Not since OpenAI temporarily withheld its GPT-2 model in 2019 has a major developer deemed a system too dangerous for the public. More than a week later, that choice is still reverberating through finance and regulatory circles.
Next:
  • a 245-page technical document released at the same time;
  • suggests it represents a major leap in capability
  • Mythos operates like a senior software engineer 
  • it demonstrates an ability to spot subtle bugs and self-correct mistakes

To repeat:
  • it is able to self-correct mistakes
  • this is huge -- this is new in the world of AI/LLM -- again something that needs to be discussed with ChatGPT

Compared to previous Anthropic cutting-edge model Opus 4.6:
  • Mythos scored 31 percentage points higher
  • that's like an F-student scoring a 69% on a math test, taking a remedial course, and scoring 100% the next time around.
But here's why it is so dangerous: Mythos is also a formidable offensive weapon.
That same coding prowess makes Mythos a formidable offensive weapon, and Anthropic says it can outstrip all but the most skilled humans at identifying and exploiting software vulnerabilities. 
In tests, it found critical faults in every widely used operating system and web browser. Of those vulernabilities, 99 percent have not yet been patched. 
Anthropic has disclosed only a fraction of what it says it has found. Independent evaluations suggest the danger is real, if more bounded than the company has implied: an assessment by the U.K.'s AI Security Institute (AISI), which was granted early access, found the model succeeded in expert-level hacking tasks 73 percent of the time. Prior to April 2025, no AI model could complete those tasks at all.
The model succeeded in expert-level hacking tasks 73 percent of the time. Prior to April 2025, no AI model could complete those tasks at all.

So, what conclusion does the article reach / what is the article's tone by Chris Stokel-Walker, a freelance journalist in Newcastle, England
  • not to worry;
  • it's simply evolutionary;
  • government regulators have "it" under control.
I can't make this up.

"Hal, open the door."

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More to explore: Daniela Amodei and Dario Amodei. 

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So, I just spent two hours with ChatGPT on all of this. Just like a two-hour seminar in college. And entirely free. 

Highly, highly recommend, if interested in this sort of stuff, taking an in-depth look at Project Glasswing.

The financing is very, very interesting. How Anthropic is funding the estimated $100 million for this single project. 

40+ organizations plus major "anchors":
  • Amazon, Google, MSFT, Apple
  • JPMorgan, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, etc.
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At age 39, Daniela could be around for a very, very long time.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Alison's Quick Connects -- Friday, April 17, 2026

Locator: 50567B.

Alison's top quick connect below

As of early 2026, the largest power generator in North Dakota is the Coal Creek Station. It is a 1,150-megawatt (MW) lignite coal-fired plant located near Underwood. Let's round the "1,150" to 1,000.

However, the under-construction Bison Generation Station in Williams County is set to become the new largest, projected to produce 1,490 MW of natural gas power by 2030. Let's round the 1,490 to 1,500.


Alison's quick connects:

• Basin Electric to break ground on its largest power plant this spring -- Minot Daily News
• Scott Hennen: Let's celebrate a North Dakota milestone in oil production -- InForum
• Bakken gas capacity set to rise as Bison XPress nears full service -- Pipeline & Gas Journal
• The Bakken is known for its oil, but it also produces coal, helium and potash. -- KFYR-TV
• Tesla sues North Dakota as it seeks to open car dealerships in Bismarck, Fargo -- North Dakota Monitor
• Trump issues several pipeline permits, authorizes Bakken Pipeline Company construction -- Reuters
• Energy takes center stage in Minot as community members gathered to discuss industry's future -- KX News
• Current state of gas prices and why they aren't lower despite North Dakota's oil presence -- KFYR-TV
• Meridian Energy CEO provides update on status of plans to build the Davis Refinery in ND -- The Crude Life
• Bakken boom continues to shape North Dakota, foreshadows future development challenges -- The Journal
• It's all about diversification at Rainbow Energy Center; pipeline completion to open doors -- Minot Daily News
• North Dakota utility regulators advance power project to serve Fargo data center -- North Dakota Monitor
• North Dakota stands at the center of America's nuclear deterrence amid Iran conflict -- Valley News Live
• Questions over River Run Energy Center, hyperscale data center dominate discussion -- The Beacon
• Greenpeace and Energy Transfer face off in Dutch court over Dakota Access Pipeline ruling -- KFYR-TV
• Port: Governor Armstrong, wisely, wants to prepare North Dakota's budget for a new reality -- InForum
• North Dakota voters face a largely uncompetitive statewide primary ballot in June -- Bismarck Tribune
• North Dakotans see lower state income taxes tied to federal policy changes -- North Dakota Monitor
• District 20 Republicans select Larimore farmer Rustebakke to fill vacant House seat -- North Dakota Monitor
• Economic Policy Institute: North Dakota's cost of living lower than most western states -- Dickinson Press
• Legacy Fund website to launch Nov. 1; seeks to improve investment transparency -- North Dakota Monitor
• One uncontested statewide race will be on North Dakota ballot during primary election -- Dickinson Press
• North Dakota Ethics Commission seeking applicants for two available positions through April -- KX News
• Williston announces significant progress in reducing its long-term debt through SB2323 -- Minot Daily News
• Officials announce start of Phase II of CR 27 reconstruction project in McKenzie County -- KX News
• City of Minot's 2027 budget schedule has been approved; neighbors can follow the process -- KX News
• Minot's two mayoral candidates laid out distinct visions for the city during chamber forum -- Minot Daily News
• State of the Region 8, City of Dickinson Town Hall both slated for April 23 in Dickinson -- Dickinson Press
• Williston City Commission proclaims upcoming Clean City Week and Free Landfill Day -- Williston Herald
• National television airing live segment from Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library -- Dickinson Press
• Medora business owners hiring and expanding as construction signals extra busy summer -- Dickinson Press
• MHA Nation, McKenzie County Sheriff's Office announce public safety partnership -- Minot Daily News
• Bank of America pledges $5M sponsorship to Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library -- Dickinson Press
• Badlands Art Assoc. accepting submissions for Lyle Glass Memorial Western Arts Show -- Dickinson Press
• Rural Health Transformation Program meeting scheduled for Hazen April 23 -- The Beacon
• New NDSU, BSC presidents sign contracts with North Dakota University System -- North Dakota Monitor
• Different paths, shared purpose: ND Petroleum Foundation Teens of the Year named -- Bismarck Tribune
• Minot middle schools test scores in the spotlight at school board's regular meeting -- Minot Daily News
• Minot High School officially adopts new secondary logo amid ongoing trademark dispute -- Minot Daily News
• 'Shared vision' comes to fruition as Alexander school celebrates expansion -- McKenzie County Farmer
• Jeremy Brenner resigns from Williston school board; applications for replacement sought -- Williston Herald
• Students compete in North Dakota National History Day; winners will advance to Washington DC -- KFYR-TV
• Commentary: Free school meals drive energized as ND lawmakers choked -- North Dakota Monitor
• Valley City State presidential search suspended after candidates withdrawals -- North Dakota Monitor
• Despite the cease-fire in the Middle East, prices at the pump are still rising. Here's why. -- Wall Street Journal
• Trump acknowledges gasoline prices might remain high through the November midterm election -- Oil Price
• Oil prices fall as signs of potential U.S.-Iran dialogue to end their war reduce supply concerns -- Reuters
• Armada of crude tankers en route to United States to purchase American energy -- The Center Square
• Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that he expects gasoline prices to peak in the next few weeks -- The Hill
• United States stops nine oil tankers attempting to break Trump's blockade on Iranian ports -- Fox News
• Chevron's stepped-up imports of Venezuelan oil are helping ease fuel prices for US consumers -- CBS News
• More evidence that the Trump Administration is serious about a nuclear energy revival -- RealClearEnergy
• Julie Fedorchak joins Axios reporter for conversation on strengthening US electric grid -- Julie Fedorchak
• Officials in the Gulf region bracing for a timeline closer to six months until US-Iran peace deal -- Oil Price
• Investor-owned utilities plan to pour at least $1.4T into new capital expenditures through 2030 -- E&E News
• Wright, Burgum to urge top US oil and gas companies to increase drilling in bid to lower prices -- E&E News
• Youth climate activists challenge Trump's executive orders in 9th Circuit appeal -- Washington Examiner
• Soaring energy prices are the result of bad government policy, time for a course correction. -- City Journal