Friday, July 31, 2026

Likely To Be Off The Net For Until Late This Evening -- Good Luck To All -- July 31, 2026

 NDIC Hearing Dockets have posted: link here.

Wow, What A Week -- TGIF -- July 31, 2026

Locator: 51297B. 
Pageviews: 70,323,924. 10:43 a.m. CT, Friday, 31 July, 2026.
24-hour rate: 543,332 pageviews in the past 26 hours.

The market:

  • AAPL: resets -- back it what it was maybe two months ago? 
  • AMZN: surges -- 
  • CVX: very volatile; currently up $2.09, trading at $194.63. Still well below the 52-week high, $214.71.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.49.

New wells reporting:

  • Sunday, August 2, 2026: 4 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 398 for the year, 
    • 42106, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S513HF,
    • 41698, conf, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-8, 
    • 41440, conf, Whiting, Jefferson Federal 5003 42-14 10BX,
  • Saturday, August 1, 2026: 1 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 395 for the year,
    • 42105, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S611HF, 
  • Friday, July 31, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 394 for the year, 
    • None.

RBN Energy: major changes disrupting global oil and refined product flows. Link here. Archived.

Since early 2026, crude oil and refined product flows have been fundamentally rerouted both within the U.S. and around the world, with more changes still to come. The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sweeping changes in Venezuela's export strategy have dramatically reshaped trade flows in just six months. At the same time, refinery closures along the U.S. West Coast and new product pipelines headed there will send barrels down paths they haven’t traditionally traveled, reshaping both domestic and even global markets in the process. In today’s RBN blog, we look at these major shifts and what they could mean going forward.

Most recently in Waiting on the World to Change, we discussed our newly released Future of Fuels report, which forecasts lower global crude oil prices and a potential rollback in U.S. production in the next few years. Today’s blog offers another look at some of the key developments examined in our report. Three issues stand out. The Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela, and plans for a new wave of pipelines into the West Coast have already shaken up the market in a big way, with more changes to come; we'll tackle them one at a time.

As we’ve addressed in the RBN blogosphere, the Trump administration’s actions against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz seriously impacted global crude and product markets, not least of which is the massive Pacific Basin fuels market. With the strait now substantially blocked for almost all of the past four-plus months (see Eyes of the Ranger), large volumes of Persian Gulf crude oil, LPG, naphtha and refined products bound for Asia were suddenly stranded, forcing refiners in South Korea, India and elsewhere to cut runs and curb gasoline and jet fuel exports (see Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad). As of late July, with on-and-off hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, the strait’s outlook continues to be uncertain, with the picture seemingly changing by the day.

U.S. gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports have helped plug part of the hole left by disrupted Persian Gulf flows. An interim deal between the U.S. and Iran in June briefly calmed tensions, and as Figure 1 below shows, crossings rebounded sharply later that month. But it did not last. Even during periods when the Strait of Hormuz has technically remained open, traffic has been sparse and vulnerable to disruption. The week of July 6 highlighted that reality and it’s been uncertain since that time (red bars to far right). Three tankers were struck by projectiles or drones on July 7, leading the U.S. to revoke the temporary license that had allowed Iranian oil sales under the cease-fire agreement and launch a new round of strikes against Iran. Vessel traffic quickly thinned out. Before the conflict, there were typically 130 to 135 ships daily, counting inbound and outbound traffic. On July 8, when President Trump declared the cease-fire over, Kpler recorded just 24 tanker transits, including inbound and outbound movements.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Citadel And Situational Awareness -- Citadel Had It -- The Hedge Fund Situational Awareness Did Not -- Irony, I Guess -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51296CITADEL. 
Pageviews: 70,323,924. 10:43 a.m. CT, Friday, 31 July, 2026.

This was the "first take" by a lot of folks. I didn't know what to think, how to phrase it, how to articulate what Citadel did, but this is what started it all:

If you don't know the story, query Citadel and the billion-dollar Situational Awareness hedge fund started by a 20-something whiz-kid -- and the went bust:


I believe that was from earlier this morning.

But here's a reply that makes sense of all this:


Ya gotta love it.

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The Book Page 

Tonight, a recent purchase from "Friends of the Library," Portland, OR, three new books for less than $15 --

  • Metazoa: Animal Life and The Birth of the Mind, Peter Godfrey-Smith, c. 2020. $4.00 (original: $28.00).

First four pages and I'm hooked. 

It's an origin of life book. If not -- I haven't read enough to know for sure -- it's a book what will immediately have you start pondering some very deep questions. particularly, just how / why is "life" different than "non-life." The ability to replicate is obvious but the difference between "life" and "non-life" is so much different. Let's say a rock could replicate itself -- but so what? There's still so much more. 

Anyway, it's going to be a fascinating book. 

Are sponges plant or animal? And how was it conclusively proven? 

  

The Oil Bet -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51295OIL 
Pageviews: 70,059,425. 8:40 p.m. CT, Thursday, 30 July, 2026.

Rambling thought: GDP missed analysts' estimates. Link here. But the headline was worse than the story. Estimate: 1.8%. Actual, 1.5%. But it must concern the Fed about raising rates and killing the economy completely when the problem is something the Fed cannot control:

Thursday’s gross domestic product report included positive signs on other fronts. Consumers increased their spending, shrugging off a surge in gas prices fueled by the conflict with Iran. Business investment remained strong as companies kept investing in IT equipment and software for the AI build-out.

WTI tonight dropped to under $83. The actual number is irrelevant -- don't take that out of context -- it's the direction of movement that's important. It's very possible that CVX will trade lower tomorrow. I have no idea what it might mean that WTI is trending down right now, albeit not by much. 


Others:
  • PSX: today up strong, futures green, albeit not by much.
  • COP: today up 1%; futures green tomorrow at 0.6%.
  • XOM: up today but inconsequential; futures, much better tomorrow.
  • TTE: flat.
  • OXY: negative today.
  • DVN: negative / flat.

The oil story simply makes no sense

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Disclaimer

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here 
  • Tech -- Three Stocks -- July 30, 2026

    Locator: 51294TECH. 
    Pageviews: 70,047,037. 8:40 p.m. CT, Thursday, 30 July, 2026.

    Amazon -- incredible! Wow, when you scroll through x and the other articles on Amazon / AMZN -- the superlatives blow you away 

    Micron -- amazing! Tim Cook said Apple is "evaluating all options," as the DRAM market remains concentrated among just MU, SKHY and Samsung.

    Apple -- best July quarter ever! Jim Cramer: Apple's issues are all memory and currency ... sticking with it. Loved that Amazon call. Shay: Michael Burry is concerned. Very concerned.

    These are very, very interesting times. For an investor with a 30-year horizon, it's hard to beat Apple. Amazon similarly, but doesn't return cash to investors, as far as I can tell. Micron? Is this just a short-term event? Five years or less? No clue.  

    So, a guessing game. From CNBC, after the close today, a semiconductor company, and the narrative for some is better than the numbers::

    Amazon

    Shay is incredibly bullish on Amazon. Link here

    And, then there's Apple. Nothing to add.

    Anticipation: lots of hours until the market opens Friday morning, but right now --

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    Disclaimer

    Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here 
  •  *******************************************
    APPLE: AppEconomy

    It's almost no good looking at history any more. It's all about the future and memory. Amazing how this seems to have blindsided everyone.

    More on Amazon: link here