Locator: 48662B.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my
posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
- Longer version here.
Berkshire's mystery stock:
- sector (show): energy
- more specifically (place): natural gas
- pick (win): Vistra
All I wanted to see in this list? Virginia and West Virginia .... and, wow, those two states are listed!
The cherry on top of this sundae? Nancy Pelosi has Vstra Energy in her portfolio.
See today's RBN Energy blog and yesterday's RBN Energy blog, both down below, and today's headline story, just below the disclaimer..
See disclaimer.
Natural gas: Woodside sees global natural gas demand surging by 50% by 2030. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: 462.68.
New wells:
- Wednesday, May 21, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 348 for the year,
- 41041, conf, XTO, Lizette State 21X-16AXD,
- 25073, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-10H,
- Tuesday, May 20, 2025: 49 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 346 for the year,
- 40830, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-9,
RBN Energy: is the Marcellus / Utica finally poised for a gas-production breakout? Archived.
The Marcellus/Utica region is by far the most prolific natural gas
production area in the U.S., accounting for about one-third of the
nation’s daily output. The shale play experienced phenomenal growth in
the 2010s, its gas production rising from less than 2 Bcf/d to more than
33 Bcf/d over that decade. But the pace of growth has slowed
dramatically in recent years, mostly due to takeaway constraints. In
today’s RBN blog, we discuss how a combination of new pipeline projects,
in-basin data center development and incremental Gulf Coast LNG demand
might breathe new life into the Marcellus/Utica.
It’s
been a while since we took a big-picture look at the Marcellus/Utica,
so we’ll begin with an overview to bring everyone up to speed. In their
production-growth heyday a few years back, the “dry Marcellus” in
northeastern Pennsylvania and the NGL-packed “wet Marcellus/Utica” in
southwestern Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and eastern Ohio
garnered more than their share of attention. But then came the Permian,
which like Beyoncé or Taylor Swift stole the show when crude-oil-focused
development activity in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico took off
like a SpaceX rocket. It didn’t help that much of the energy news out
of Appalachia the past few years has been about pipeline projects that
were set back or canceled — or that took what seemed like eons to
finally advance to construction and operation.
Even out of the spotlight, the Marcellus/Utica has remained a
production powerhouse. As shown in Figure 1 below, the broader region
(Marcellus/Utica plus other parts of Appalachia) has been hovering
between 34 Bcf/d and 36 Bcf/d through the first half of the 2020s, with
only a few MMcf/d coming from the “other” category. Of the current ~35
Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica production, about 11 Bcf/d comes out of the dry
Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania and the other 24 Bcf/d comes out
of the wet Marcellus/Utica: ~10 Bcf/d from northern West Virginia, ~9
Bcf/d from southwestern Pennsylvania, and ~5 Bcf/d from eastern Ohio.
(RBN estimates that more than 1 MMb/d of NGLs is currently being
“recovered” — that is, not “rejected” into natural gas for its Btu value
— in the wet Marcellus/Utica, more than 400 Mb/d in both southwestern
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia and more than 200 Mb/d in
eastern Ohio.)
Figure 1. Appalachia Gas Production, 2017 to Present. Source: EIA
RBN Energy: backlog for natural gas turbines expends on surging demand, supply constraints. Archived.
There is tremendous buzz around natural-gas-fired turbines right now
with backlogs reportedly stretching five years into the future due to
supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and a surge in demand. The
power generation industry is poised for a major upswing as data center
development and overall electricity demand continue to accelerate,
driving an even greater need for gas turbines. In today’s RBN blog, we
will explore why gas turbines are so challenging to build and why
there’s such a manufacturing backlog.
As we noted recently in Only Happy When It Rains,
there’s been a lot of talk the past few months about artificial
intelligence (AI) and plans by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and others to
build a slew of data centers — energy hogs that require vast amounts of
around-the-clock electricity. Developers have been considering the full
gamut of power-generation sources — everything from renewables to
nuclear — but almost everyone understands that gas-fired plants will be a
big part of the solution. A number of major gas producers and just
about every big midstreamer with a gas pipeline network have been
talking up their plans to serve these new power plants, and several
gas-fired projects — many tied directly to data centers — have already
been announced. And while there are other fundamental factors
stimulating demand for gas-fired power generation, the high profile of
the data center development has put a spotlight on the prospects for
acquiring the turbines needed to run a gas-fired power plant, a bigger
challenge than it might appear.
Before we get into what’s behind the turbine bottleneck, let’s start
with some basics on turbines and how they work. A gas-fired turbine is a
giant engine that transforms the energy in natural gas into electricity
using a continuous, high-speed process. As shown in Figure 1 below, it
works by taking in air, squeezing it tightly and mixing it with fuel —
creating a fiery (but controlled) explosion in its combustion chamber.
The blast of hot, high-pressure gases rushes through and spins the
turbine’s blades. The spinner on the turbine turns a shaft connected to a
generator (bottom portion of graphic), where the mechanical energy is
then turned into electricity. It then heads to a transformer, which
increases the voltage, and then to a transmission line. (High-voltage
lines allow electricity to be transmitted over long distances with
minimal losses.)
Figure 1. How a Natural Gas Turbine Generates Electricity. Source: Omaha Public Power District
