Our adult daughter, Kiri, 40+ years old, is in a standuppaddleboard race off Stewart Beach, Galveston, TX.
To say the least, it looks very, very daunting, even doing this will friends. Going out against the tide must be incredibly difficult, but perhaps easier when coming in with the tide.
The course is one-mile long. They kayak or paddleboard out to the buoy one-half mile off the coast, come around and back to the start/finish buoy along the shore, for a one-mile lap. Racers choose the distance they want. This is Kiri's first time on the open ocean so she is racing a short race, only three miles. Her experienced friend is racing five miles. I didn't ask the expected time, but based on first one-mile lap, this looks like an hour per mile.
The granddaddy of US river/lake racing is the Chattajack in / near Nashville, TN -- a 31-mile race on the Tennessee River Gorge -- start-point Chattanooga, TN, -- which Kiri has done for the past four years (?). On the fifth completed race, they earn a huge belt buckle which she should earn this year.
The race start: I missed it. I was moving the car so it wouldn't get towed!! The race started about 11:15 a.m.
12:15 p.m.: Kiri and her friend finished 3.5 miles in less than an hour. After the first lap, they had to sit down to finish the race. That's how hard it was.
September 26, 2026: production update; the Rella wells started to show production in June, 2026. Early production:
42344, conf, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 2B, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/18/2025; t--; cum --;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
7-2026
22087
15872
6-2026
6071
4341
42345, conf, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 3B, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/19/2025; t--; cum --;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
7-2026
23895
17097
6-2026
5913
4630
42346, conf, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 4BX, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/20/2025; t--; cum --;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
7-2026
23895
17097
6-2026
5913
4630
Original Post
The wells:
it looks like the reader has a new family of wells, the Oasis Rella
wells in Ft Buford. These are incredibly long laterals -- four miles
long. Remember, the standard Bakken well is two miles long; we've seen a
few three-mile horizontals but I can't recall any four-mile laterals.
These wells are in Ft Buford, in township 153N and range 103W.
They
are sited in section at the north section line and extend through four
sections to end at the south line of section 31. The reader has
royalties in section 31-153-103.
42344, drl, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 2B, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/18/2025; t--; cum --;
42345, drl, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 3B, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/19/2025; t--; cum --;
42346, drl, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 4BX, Ft. Buford, spud, 11/20/2025; t--; cum --;
The deed:
The Oasis permits approved September 25, 2025. They have all been drilled to depth and are waiting to be fracked, from the daily activity report: The Oasis permits:
From the daily activity report:
The permits:
The maps:
This is a very, very busy slide. I may come back to it and explain it. Until I do, you're on your own.
The second map: simply documenting the wells have been drilled, waiting to be fracked:
The third map: the three-well Rella pad sited in section 18-153-103 in Ft Buford.
The fact that these numbers and these launches get very little
mainstream media attention one can safely say the US has fully moved
into space -- it has moved from the "exploration" cycle (which lasted
for decades); is now in the late states of the "boom" cycle (which will
probably last less than ten years due to Elon Musk); and quickly moving
into the "sustainability" or "manufacturing" stage.
One wonders if all
that talk about going to Mars was less about actually going to Mars but
use that "excitement" to get the sector (the space launch sector)
moving.
Finally:
The Wright brothers flight: 1903.
I think one can argue the US entered
the modern air travel age in 1936 with The Douglas DC-3 (1936): this
revolutionary aircraft allowed airlines to make a profit strictly from
carrying passengers, freeing them from a reliance on government mail
subsidies and launching modern commercial air travel. That took only 36
years.
With space exploration it has taken much, much longer, but I
think one can argue that the modern space age (cargo) began in 2018
with Elon Musk's Falcon Heavy launch. And, now, only 2018 t0 2025, seven
years. Thoughts?
It's going to be easier than ever to write books in the future.
****************************** The Book Page
Speaking of books, I continue to read Stephen Witt's biography of Jensen Huang. Absolutely fascinating. It explains very, very well how PC gaming / PC gamers were related to Nvidia. Today, we begin Chapter 9, "CUDA." This should be very, very interesting.
The "big book" I'm reading is the authoritative book on Transcendentalism by Robert A Gross, 2021, along with Gemini. You can follow our discussions, chapter by chapter, by clicking here.
Chapter 9, "Cuda" begins:
Ian Buck was a graduate student in computer graphics at Stanford in 2000.
Gamers like Johnathan Wendel lowered their screen resolution to maximize the frame rate in deathmatch. Ian Buck took things to the opposite extreme .... in 2000 he chained thirty-two GeForce units together to render Quake III across eight projectors.... it took an entire wall....
Poking around the circuits, Buck began to wonder if his GPU daisy chain might be used for tasks other than shooting grenades at his friends. If you wanted to hand-render thirty frames of Quake III in 8K using pencil andpaper, and you were willing to work twenty-four hours a day to do so, the arithmetic would take about 16,000 years to complete. Buck's GeForce array was doing that every second. Plus, the whoel rig cost only about $20,000 to assemble -- a pittance by the standards of high-performance computing. To play Quake on the wall, Buck had inadvertently build a low-budget supercomputer.
DARPA, 2002 or thereabouts ...
2004, Jensen Huang called ...
Parallel-computing evangelist .. Bill Dally -- offered a job by Jensen Huang, 2003 ...
Compute Unified Domain Architecture, CUDA ... a secret Nvidia project at the time ..
John Nickolls, an Nvidia engineer who invented CUDA ...
Prediction that Intel's long domination would soon expire ... p. 94.... Moore's Law truly dead ....
CUDA launched in 2006 ... p. 100
The incredible argument between Deb Shoquist and Jensen Huang .. p. 103 .... worth the price of the book ..
... ends with Kirk leaving permanent job at Nvidia to become a part-time consultant and to find his replacement ... p. 105.... his replacement would soon transform Nvidia Research into the most successful corporate R&D department in the world.
*********************** The Car Page
Here are the photos. Narrative below the photos. The JEEP has a "Let's Go Brandon" above "Sahara." Below JEEP is "Wrangler." This is a brand new 2026 JEEP.
A rounding error, unless I made a basic error in arithmetic: it will be interesting to see where Lennar is five years from now. 26 million shares at $81 / share = $2 billion. Berkshire has $365 billion cash on hand. Huge headlines; hardly a rounding error. 2 / 365 = 0.5%. So, even if LEN triples -> 6 / 365 = 1.6%.
For me, housing:
generational wealth transfer: a lot of old housing is going to become available as seniors downsize over the nest 30 years;
financing: like McDonald's, I don't see a lot of foot traffic moving to homebuilders;
margins: historically 11 - 15%; Lennar says it will give up some margins to move property; it's costing them a lot of money to hold unsold property; 11% on a homebuilding bet or 6% on Treasuries?
declining birth rate;
#1 reason for US population increase disappeared almost two years ago; we're starting to see that in rental rates and have seen that in used car prices for quite some time;
not sure if I can find where homebuilders can cut production costs.
Demographics: Millennials (Gen Y): Born 1981 to 1996, making them 30 to 45 years old.
The younger half of the 30–50 range belongs to this group.
Generation Z:
Born 1997 to 2012, making them 14 to 29 years old.
Facts:
Baby boomers (62 to 80 years old): downsizing; out of the housing market; their children won't move into their old homes.
Generation X (45 to 61 years old): thinking about downsizing; regardless how much they want to buy, they are pretty much fixed in their current homes.
Generation Y(millennials, 30 to 45 years old): prime home-buying segment; more on them below.
Generation Z(14 to 29 years old): too soon to say but it will be nothing like the homebuying frenzy we saw after WWII by my parents' generation and my generation later.
Opinion:
Homebuying is not dead, but it certainly doesn't look like a growth industry. Technology is the growth industry -- technology as the "infrastructure" for everything else, and I just don't see much technology in homebuilding that would entice Generation Y (the 30- to 45-year-old group).Generations Z and Y are more interested in travel, experiences, job hopping, experimenting, way fewer children (perhaps zero).
