Monday, November 29, 2021

Victor Davis Hanson Joins The "Woke" Crowd; Yorkshire Inn Gets Snowed In; The NFL Is Back -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 29, 2021

The word for the day: abatis

I mentioned earlier I was in my US Civil War / US Grant phase. See this post. My notes on US Grant are in progress at this post.

It was in James Marshall-Cornall's biography that I came across the word abatis, along with glacis. The latter, glacis, has nothing in common with glassy as far as etymology is concerned, but there is a sort of family resemblance. LOL.


I wasn't going to post this except that it bothers me that it appears that Victor Davis Hanson has joined the "woke" crowd. I've haven't read of of his stuff in a long time -- perhaps the last time I paid much attention to him was pre-Covid when I would sit for hours at Starbucks. But since then, not much interest. It was pure serendipity that his article appeared in the most recent issue of The Claremont Review of Books when I was reading about US Grant and putting that story together.

It all began with my short -- very short -- visit to Shiloh, TN, last month, a truly life-altering event for me. 

Internet sources suggest "the Shiloh battlefield" was 5.8 miles square and/or 9,324 acres. The numbers don't work; different sources, but be that as it may, prior to the battle Grant was anticipating as many as 100,000 Union soldiers (James Marshall-Cornall), although fewer than that actually fought. A smaller but similar number of Confederates were expected; about 45,000. 

It is impossible to imagine that many men (and hangers on) in an area that would be about six sections in size. And then the logistics: the food required to feed this army; the liquor required; and, finally, the number of port-a-potties that would have been required. Many arrived by steamer coming down the Tennessee ... just the disembarking of tens of thousands of troops would have been mind-boggling.

Global Warming

I wouldn't have bothered with posting this story but I have such fond memories of Yorkshire, how could I not post this for the archives for my grandchildren. 

If I had all the money in the world, I would have a house in Yorkshire. 

Here's the headline: snowstorm strands 61 in pub in Yorkshire, England, for third night, plenty of beer available. You will have to google the story. Google blogger app blocks this site from being linked. 

From the article:

  • Tan Hill Inn
  • Yorkshire Dales
  • three feet of snow "overnight"

So, now, the map. I was stationed for many months at RAF Menwith Hill, northern Yorkshire, and I often spent weekends walking in the Yorkshire Dales. 

The map, and there it is:

  • Tan Hill Inn is 90 minutes northwest of Pateley Bridge
  • some folks left their heart in San Francisco; I left mine in Pateley Bridge

The Tan Hill Inn website.

From wiki:

Tan Hill is a high point on the Pennine Way in the Richmondshire district of North Yorkshire, England. It lies north of Keld in the civil parish of Muker, near the borders of County Durham and Cumbria, and close to the northern boundary of the Yorkshire Dales National Park. It is in an isolated location, the nearest town of Kirkby Stephen being an 11-mile drive away.

The Tan Hill Inn is the highest inn in the British Isles at 1,732 feet above sea level. 

The NFL Is Back!


Several months (?) ago I mentioned on the blog how brilliant Amazon was to "steal" the rights to Thursday Night Football from Fox Sports. So, how did that work out. Here are the headlines, from The TV Ratings Guide:

  • November 26, 2021: Thursday TV ratings 11/25/21: NFL dominates Thanksgiving; top shows in prime time:
  • NFL Overrun, CBS
  • Football Night In America: NBC
  • NFL: Bills vs Saints: NBC
  • November 18, 2021: Thursday Cable Rating 11/18/21: Rising NFL Leads

And then this, from SportsNaut:

  • Week 12: November 29, 2021: Raiders, Cowboys Thanksgiving OT thriller draws historic NFL audience numbers -- this was a Thursday game. LOL. Historic NFL audience numbers.
    • NFL TV rating: CBS draws 38.3 million for Thanksgiving broadcast
      • A Thanksgiving matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders delivered what will go down as one of the most-watched games in NFL history. CBS estimates it averaged 38.53 million viewers for its Thursday broadcast of the Raiders and Cowboys overtime thriller, the largest audience for a regular-season game since 41.47 million watched the New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers.
  • Week 11: Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs had everyone watching;
    • TNF: 13.52 million; 7.7 rating
    • Fox Game of the week: 28.06 million; 14.4 rating
    • Early Fox game: 17.28 million; 9.15 rating
    • SNF: 14.55 million; 8.05 rating
    • MNF: TBD, tonight
  • Week 10
    • TNF: 12.92 million; 7.4 rating; third behind SNF (16.74 million) and Fox Game of the Week (17.58)
  • Week 9: a 3% bump from the 2020 NFL season
  • Week 8: TNF -- with 20.26 million viewers, only behind SNF with 21.29 million viewers; MNF far behind with 13.92 million viewers
  • Week 7: TNF -- a weak matchup but "the TV ratings will leave the NFL and its broadcast partners very pleased." Viewership for TNF week 7 marked a 26% increase from 2020 week 7 TNF;
We'll quit there but that tells me everything I need to know.

A Closer Look At The Nikolai Federal Well Just Reported By Oasis -- #35483 -- November 29, 2021

The Oasis Nikolai Federal wells are tracked here.

The parent well, because these wells are still confidential, not sure which way they run, but it appears they run to the north ((?). If so, the one well in that drilling unit is #20266. Again, this is all conjecture. The nearest wells are one mile to the west, Equinor wells, and there are subtle hints there, but I can't say anything for sure.

  • 20266, 777, Oasis, Wold Federal 15-33H, Banks, t3/12; cum 169K 9/21: was off line during the exact two months that the Nikolai Federal well (#35483) was off line. Note the huge jump in production, from around 750 bbls/month to 5,500 bbls/month, a 7x increase:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:

  • 35483, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33B, middle Bakken; Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K over four months; 33-053-08741; SESW 33-153-97; 321 FSL 1834 FWL
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

  • fracked 4/17/21 - 5/3/21
  • water: 9,596,506 gallons
  • fresh water by mass: 91.09279%
  • produced water by mass: 0.06447%
  • sand by mass: 8.62190%
  • a gallon weight 8.34 pounds
  • 9.596506 million gallons = 80.034860 million lbs
  • 0.9115726 of ? = 80.034860 million lbs
  • total pounds of proppant plus water: 87,798,668 lbs
  • sand: 0.086219 * 97,798668 = 7.6 million lbs
  • a small/moderate frack with lots of water;

Just Like Clockwork: "Focus On Fracking" -- Weekly Edition Posted -- Thirty-Four Active Rigs; Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- November 29, 2021

Link here. The lede:
SPR at a 18 yr low, gasoline supplies at 48 mo low, distillate supplies at 23 mo low; total inventories at an 82 month low... oil prices drop 13% on new Covid variant; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 18-year-low as US plans further withdrawals; another 48 month low for gasoline inventories; a 23 month low for distillate inventories, and an 82 month low for total inventories...

Regular gasoline at our corner service station over the weekend: $2.89 / gallon.  

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3414576655

Monday, November 29, 2021: 40 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 294 for the year:

  • 38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38237, conf, CLR, Jensen 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 36897, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7XH, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 43K 9/21;

Sunday, November 28, 2021: 37 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 291 for the year:

  • 38270, conf, CLR, Middlestadt 9-17H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 36818, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-3H, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 55K 9/21;

RBN Energy: the Spire STL natural gas pipeline and the new challenge to already-built assets. Archived.

Determining whether to approve plans for interstate natural gas pipeline projects has never been an easy task for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. There are so many things to consider, chief among them the need for the pipeline, impacts on the environment and landowners along the route, and what it all means for gas customers. But as complicated as the decision-making process may be, at least pipeline developers, gas producers, and customers knew that once a new pipeline was approved by FERC, permitted, built, and put into service that the matter was closed — that is, the pipeline was here to stay.

Now, in the wake of a groundbreaking court ruling on a new gas pipeline near St. Louis, things are not so certain. As it turns out, we’re intimately familiar with the matter, having just made the case that the 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline is an important addition to the regional pipeline network that provides supply diversity, improved reliability, and access to lower-cost gas. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the evolution of FERC regulation of gas pipelines and the new uncertainty that all affected parties face.

Decades ago, back when natural gas pipelines themselves bought and controlled most of the supply in the gas market, the process for certifying new pipelines was especially complicated and arduous. In essence, the pipeline company needed to prove to FERC beyond the shadow of a doubt not only that the proposed pipeline was really needed by real, provable demand, but that there was sufficient gas supply at the upstream end of the pipe to serve customers through the project’s lifecycle.

Typically, that high bar was met via what you might call a package deal under which gas producers made long-term commitments to supply gas (and show that they had sufficient reserves of gas in place), pipeline companies contracted to buy and transport the gas, and local distribution companies (LDCs) committed to buy the gas from the pipeline. The pipeline’s bundled rates included charges for the gas itself and a range of services: transportation, storage, and peak shaving. Everything was locked down.

That all changed in 1992 with FERC Order 636.

It said that gas pipelines would only transport and store gas, not buy and sell it, and that shippers would essentially rent space on pipelines between two or more points.

Where gas came from and where it went was no longer the pipeline’s business — the new buzzwords were “open access” and “unbundled.”

To give structure to how new facilities are reviewed in the post-Order 636 world, after some experience in the unbundled market, FERC in 1999 issued a statement of policy laying out the hurdles that need to be cleared to get project approval.

One such hurdle was a requirement for firm precedent agreements on the project (commitments to sign firm service contracts when the project goes into service) to demonstrate customer demand and the need for capacity. In addition, many other standards were incorporated in the process having to do with the impact on other customers of the same pipeline, on competitors, on landowners, etc. (Pipelines already had to clear the very high hurdle of an environmental analysis under the National Environmental Policy Act, through either an environmental assessment or an environmental impact statement if it was warranted.) Notwithstanding these standards in the policy statement, reliance on precedent agreements became the primary test of need in most cases.

The Shale Revolution gave a new urgency to getting new gas pipelines (and pipeline reversals and expansions) approved and built. Production in the Marcellus, Permian, and other shale plays was taking off and producers needed to add capacity fast to keep pace. Getting approvals for supply-push pipeline reversal projects was relatively easy in that they typically had little or no environmental impact, but some greenfield pipelines (especially in the enviro-conscious Northeast) proved tougher to advance, and some didn’t make it past the finish line. Also, there was growing resistance (and not just in the Northeast) from landowners and communities about the eminent domain rights that come with a FERC certificate. (Eminent domain is the power for an entity to take private property from another entity for a valid public purpose.) The transfer of federal eminent domain to a private pipeline developer was added to the Natural Gas Act by Congress in 1947, making the issuance of a certificate to construct a much bigger deal than it had been.

Since 2018, FERC has been exploring possible changes to the 1999 policy statement on the certification of new interstate pipelines. Among other things, FERC has been examining the role of precedent agreements and landholder interests in the decision whether to grant a certificate that includes eminent domain; the commission’s evaluation of project alternatives; and — most recently, in a draft Notice of Inquiry (NOI) filed in February 2021 — the impacts of proposed projects on greenhouse gas emissions and “environmental justice communities.” Those matters will be discussed and decided over time.

The rest of the story at the link. 


My Condolences To Those Charging Their Chevrolet Bolts Tonight In New England -- 1:28 A.M. Eastern Time -- November 29, 2021

ISO NE link here

The ten deciles in ISO NE are not linear. As one goes up the scale, the range increases markedly. By the time we get to the 7th decile, price-spreads are remarkable, to say the least:

  • 1st decile: under $0
  • 2nd: a $20-spread, $0 - $20
  • 3rd: a $20-spread, $21 to $40
  • 4th: only a $30-spread, $41 to $70
  • 5th: still only a $30-spread, $71 to $100
  • 6th: a $50-spread: from $101 to $150
  • 7th: where we find ourselves this morning, a $50-spread; from $151 to $200
  • 8th: a huge $300-spread, from $201 to $500
  • 9th: a whopping $500-spread, from $501 to $1,000
  • 10th: over $,1000 / MWh


Later, 6:30 a.m. CT: the original post was just after midnight, earlier "this morning." It's gotten worse. All of New England, with minor exceptions has now moved to "orange," the 7th decile (it may have been higher overnight), with electricity trending toward $175 after spiking to $125 / MWh around 2:00 a.m. It didn't stay there long but since 4:00 a.m. it's been going back up and is now around $175 / MWh. Note "renewable" contribution. It's gonna be a long winter.

Original Post

Electricity just spiked to nearly $150 / MWh. At midnight?

Price of electricity in the "yellow' -- at the 6th decile.

With renewable energy, it should be running close to "free," we were told.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Random Update Of The BR CCU Gopher Wells -- Re-Fracked -- Some Fracked For The First Time -- November 28, 2021

The CCU Gopher wells are tracked here.

It appears BR is in the process of fracking and/or re-fracking some of these CCU Gopher wells. Whether these are initial fracks or re-fracks we'll sort out later. I assume at least one reader could tell me. The first one below is obviously the first frack:

We'll end up looking at all of them but for now, this one should get our attention:

  • 33806, SI/A (a DUC), BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 150K in six months of production (see below);

#33806? Guess when that well was permitted? July 21, 2017 -- over four years ago. On that date the following Gopher wells were permitted, and all are currently being listed as DUCs by the NDIC:

  • #33806 - #33811, inclusive:
    • 33806: 6-2-15TFH; fracked early 2021; Three Forks first bench; stimulated (fracked) 2/16/20; test date, 2/11/21; IP 22 bbls (no typo); 33 stages; lbs proppant, 7,994,240 lbs proppant; max production, 42K over 28 days extrapolates to 45K over 30 days;
    • 33807: 6-2-15MBH; stimulated (fracked) 12/16/20; test date: 2/2/21; 33 stages; IP: 24 bbls (no typo); lbs proppant: 7,931,630 lbs; max production, 22K 5/21;
    • 33808: 5-2-15TFH; max production, 27K over 23 days, 3/21; extrapolates to 35K over 30 days;
    • 33809: 7-2-15MBH; max production, 26K over 31 days;
    • 33810: 8-2-15TFH; max production, 29K over 29 days;
    • 33811: 8-2-15MBH; max production, 31K over 30 days;

Now, back to #33806, full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me; Remind Me Again About Hubbert's Theory -- November 28, 2021

On my way to looking up something else, I happened to come across a great well.

I was checking up on wells that came off the confidential list in 4Q15, six years ago. I only got through a handful of such wells when I stumbled upon this.

I ran across a couple of BR CCU Gopher wells that had a very interesting production profile; that led me to check up on #30780.

The four well pad:

  • 30777, 1,960, BR, CCU Red River 7-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t10/15; cum 248K 9/21;
  • 30778, 1,844, BR, CCU Red River 8-2-15MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 311K 9/21;
  • 30779, 2,325, BR, CCU Gopher 1-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 240K 9/21;
  • 30780, 2,525, BR, CCU Gopher 2-2-15MBH, Corral Creek, t9/15; cum 419K 9/21;

Recent production:

  • #30778:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • #30779:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

For newbies, when you see production profiles like that in the Bakken, it generally means one thing: a neighboring well is being drilled, fracked, or re-fracked.

It didn't take long to find that well:

  • #30780:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

So, let's see if the file report this well has anything to add: nope, nothing. The most recent sundry form is dated 2016, a workover. So, this well was re-fracked. 

Full production report is located here.

And that's going to take us to the other Gopher wells. Stay tuned.

Happy Festivus -- November 28, 2021

Sophia's elementary school principal -- here in Texas -- sends out a weekly newsletter. Today, my wife noted this in the newsletter:

Wow! The [elementary school] special days/dress schedule didn’t miss any holidays — Hannukah, Christmas, Diwali, Ramadan, Kwanzaa …!

In fact, she did. LOL.

Grocery Store -- Sunday After Thanksgiving

Random observations at our local grocery store, not Target:

  • casual observations: any shortages on the shelves not immediately noticeable
  • closer observations: some shortages, but if one can afford "average" grocery store prices, no one will go hungry
  • pasta: I was surprised to see so little spaghetti and similar pasta on the shelves; pasta has been in limited supply for months; I believe that's also true for beans and rice, although I did not check tonight;
  • beef, pork, chicken: no shortages; I did not check the prices; however, I did not see any whole chickens, though I did not look very hard; a small selection of chicken livers which I never buy any more but used to enjoy; prefer gizzards (LOL);
    • with rotisserie chickens so affordable, I have no idea why folks buy fresh / frozen chicken to cook at home except for special occasions or special events (e.g., beer can chicken on the Weber)
  • beer: normal prices; six packs running at $9.99 which was discounted from $10.99 and $11.99; last summer one could find same six packs running at $8.99 (discounted); Yuengling beer recently introduced to Texas always least expensive; often discounted;
  • no Spam on the shelf except for two cans of Spam Lite; store brand "Spam" instead, but limited quantities
  • potato chips on sale, some brands markedly reduced; I see this periodically in this particular store
  • turkeys: still large quantities and priced at 99 cents / lb
  • canned tuna on sale at $1.00 / can
  • Campbell's soup getting more expensive, but store brand very competitive; e.g., Bean and Bacon (Campbell's): $1.69, but store brand at 99 cents;
  • white, sliced bread: the "off-brands" still easily found at 99 cents/loaf
  • I bought brand-name hot dogs; real hot dogs, not those "turkey dogs"; don't remember exact price but I wouldn't have bought them if more than what I used to pay (I seldom buy hot dogs but like to have some in freezer / refrigerator -- in case Sophia wants one for a snack);
  • I did not look at the bacon; even if being given away, I was not in the mood to buy any;
  • russet potatoes: 89 cents / pound;
  • the one thing I came in for: Ken's Honey Mustard salad dressing; regular, not lite; don't remember the price but it was no more than what I expected to pay;

Williston Mayor Howard Klug On Fox And Friends Sunday Morning -- November 28, 2021

A reader writes: Williston mayor Howard Klug on Fox and Friends Weekend this morning.

I Scream, You Scream, We All Scream For Ice Cream

Twenty months old. Pretending to eat ice cream out of the side of a toy fire truck. At the end, Levi is upset because they're "run out" ice cream. After the movie stops, Judah scraped some of his "ice cream" off his spoon and gave it to Levi.

Twins driving their fire truck. Levi always gets to drive; Judah never gets to drive. Second thought: looks like they are riding a motorcycle.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 28 ,2021

The wells:

  • 38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1 Chimney Butte, no production data, SWSW 9-T146N-R95W; from section 9, Kuklas run south, Candees run north
    • parent well to the north
      • 16509, a dual lateral, AB/484, CLR, Candee 11-9H, Chimney Butte t6/07; cum 206K 12/19;
  • 37440, conf, Oasis, Wold 5297 11-6 2B, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38266, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 12-7HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 38267, conf, CLR, Pletan 12-18HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH
  • 37623, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 6B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36816, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data, SWSW 8-T146N-R95W; one section to the west of the Candee / Kukla wells;
    • the parent well, #16316:
      • 16316, a dual lateral, IA/280, CLR, Jensen 1-5H, Chimney Butte, cum 227K 11/19;
  • 38236, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 10-17HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-H1 Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 38237, conf, CLR, Jensen 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 36897, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7XH, Sanish, SWSW 7-T153N-R92W
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    • the parent wells to #36897:
      • 17964, IA/571, Whiting, Satterthwaite 11-7H, t6/09; cum 189K 3/21;
      • 21252, 690, Whiting, S-Bar 11-7TFH, t2/12; cum 114K 9/21; was off line 4/21 - 8/21; back on line 92/1;
  • 38270, conf, CLR, Middlestadt 9-17H1, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 36818, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-3H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- November 28, 2021

Monday, December 6, 2021: 55 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 309 for the year:
38250, conf, CLR, Candee 10-9H1,
36863, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7XH,

Sunday, December 5, 2021: 53 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 307 for the year:
38251, conf, CLR, Kukla 8-16HSL, 
37624, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 10BX,

It's been a long time since we've seen wells coming off the confidential list every day of the next week.

Saturday, December 4, 2021: 51 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 305 for the year:
38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1,
37440, conf, Oasis, Wold 5297 11-6 2B,

Friday, December 3, 2021: 49 for the month, 52 for the quarter, 303 for the year:
38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H,

Thursday, December 2, 2021: 48 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 302 for the year:
38266, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 12-7HSL1,
38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH,

Wednesday, December 1, 2021: 46 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 300 for the year:
38267, conf, CLR, Pletan 12-18HSL,
38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH,
37623, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 6B,
36816, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2H,

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 296 for the year:
38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL,
38236, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 10-17HSL1,

Monday, November 29, 2021: 40 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 294 for the year:
38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-H1,
38237, conf, CLR, Jensen 11-8HSL1,
36897, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7XH,

Sunday, November 28, 2021: 37 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 291 for the year:
38270, conf, CLR, Middlestadt 9-17H1,
36818, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-3H,