Why I Remain Bullish On Copper But Pivoting To Fiber -- April 13, 2026

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Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This is for my extended family members, not for general readership. I use the blog to get information to my extended family members quickly. See the blog's disclaimer. Click on Disclaimer.

Pivoting from SCCO to GLW.

AI prompt: does Copprlink use copper?

Reply: 

AI prompt: what is PCI-SIG?

Reply:  

AI prompt: what is the long-term role for copper vs fiber (or vice-versa)? After reading about Copprlink, I began to wonder: personal computers (I assume) and large data centers use copper and fiber. In the long run, fiber is likely to win out, but that's not a given. What do you see with regard to the "competition" between copper and fiber going forward?

Reply:  

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.

Longer version here.   

Who Controls 20% Of Global Oil When The Strait Remains Closed -- April 13, 2026

Locator: 50516BLOCKADE.

To clarify: 

• the strait is closed due to mines 
• the US Navy is now clearing those mines with underwater drones
• Trump plans to open the strait
• Trump only plans to blockade Iran
• China's not going to like that
• talk of a Taiwan blockade comes into play 

From The Merchant's News substack today: 

I asked Google Gemini to fact check that: 

Again, Trump knows what he is doing. Wow. And only Trump would have addressed this issue after seven previous presidents kicked the can down the road. 

The mainstream media doesn't get it. Many analysts do but they are afraid to speak out, afraid to be seen as supporting Donald Trump.

Right now, Powerline has clarified a number of issues. Particularly the blockade.

Manic Monday -- The Blockade Edition -- Monday, April 13, 2026

Locator: 50515B.

WTI: what does it mean if the price of WTI is lower at the end of the day than at the opening? Asking for a friend. Later: at mid-morning, WTI is $2 lower than it was at the opening. Overnight, WTI briefly hit $105; at the opening, WTI was $104; now, mid-morning, WTI is $102. Later: after lunch, WTI is down slightly from last reading, at $101.70.

Investing: for the extended family members, not general readership -- the big investing story today, Micron; link here.

CVX: surges on announcement of large discovery in the Gulf of America. Link here. Pre-market: CVX is in line with the rest of the oil & gas sector. I don't see any surge based on this announcement. New target: $255 vs the previous $217. Currently in the $185 - $190 range. 

TTE: getting a bit more press than usual today. 

Blockade: rules have changed immensely overnight; as usual, after initial announcement, President Trump clarifies; even those countries against the war now support Trump on this update -- source.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $104. With announcement of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, later modified, WTI surged 8%; added $8. 

New wells reporting: 

• Tuesday, April 14, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 198 for the year,  
• 41945, conf, Phoenix Operating, Goodnight 22-15 5H,
• 41944, conf, Phoenix Operating, Goodnight 22-15 4H,
• 41943, conf, Phoenix Operating, Goodnight 22-15 2H,
• 41942, conf, Phoenix Operating, Goodnight 22-15 1H-LL,
• 41871, conf,  Phoenix Operating, Goodnight 22-15 3H, 
• 41801, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3C,
• 41800, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3F,
• 40634, conf, Hunt Oil, Oakland 154-89-30-19H-1, 
• Monday, April 13, 2026: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 190 for the year,
• 42179, conf, BR, Abersom 1-12 UTFH, ULW, 
• 41799, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3A, 
• 41387, conf, Hess, BW-Barbara Ann-149-100-1705H-3, 
• Sunday, April 12, 2026: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 187 for the year,
• 42177, conf, BR, Omlid 3-8-7 TFH, 
• 41927, conf, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S512HF, 
• 41159, conf, Hess, BW-Sharen Lynor-149-100-2032H-3, 
• Saturday, April 11, 2026: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 184 for the year,
• 41504, conf, Hess, RS-Piepkorn-155-92-1208H-1, 

RBN Energy: US refiners using Persian gulf crude seek alternatives. Link here. Archived.

U.S. refineries are, of course, far less dependent on crude oil from the Middle East than they were before the Shale Revolution and the ramp-up in Western Canadian production. But the ongoing war on Iran and the cutoff in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf is forcing several East Coast, Gulf Coast and West Coast refiners to look elsewhere for the mostly medium-sour crude they had been sourcing from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait before recent hostilities started and the Strait of Hormuz was shut down to most shipping. In today’s RBN blog, we look at which U.S. refineries had been receiving Persian Gulf oil, the qualities of that crude, and the alternative sources of replacement oil — at least until the Middle East returns to normal.

U.S. imports of crude oil from the Persian Gulf have experienced many ups and downs over the past 60-plus years, rising from about 500 Mb/d in the early 1960s to a then-record 2.4 MMb/d in 1977, then falling to less than 250 Mb/d in the mid-1980s — mostly due to new Alaska North Slope production and a post-embargoes shift to non-OPEC alternatives. Another round of rising imports from the Persian Gulf followed, however, and by 2001 a new record (more than 2.6 MMb/d) had been set, followed by a gradual and then accelerating decline as the Shale Era took hold. By 2025, the U.S. was receiving just under 500 Mb/d, about as much as it did when JFK was taking office and The Beatles were playing their first gigs.

To put that in perspective, U.S. crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf accounted for only 8% of the 6.2 MMb/d of total imports in 2025 and only 3% of the 16.1 MMb/d of U.S. refinery input last year, compared to 17% of the 15.1 MMb/d of refinery input in 2001, when imports from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors peaked. 

As shown in the three charts in Figure 1 below, U.S. imports of crude oil from the four Persian Gulf producers (not including Iran, which last sent small volumes of crude to the U.S. in 2023) declined through most of the early 2020s (stacked layers), from 699 Mb/d in 2020 to 491 Mb/d in 2025. But imports to PADD 5 (West Coast; right chart) have remained steady and last year the region was the #1 importer from the Persian Gulf for the third year in a row, receiving an average of 230 Mb/d. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast; middle chart) started out this decade as the top importer, taking 362 Mb/d in 2020 — and topping PADD 5’s 283 Mb/d that year— but by 2025 the volumes sent to the Gulf Coast had fallen to only 176 Mb/d. Persian Gulf deliveries to refineries in PADD 1 (East Coast; left chart) averaged 85 Mb/d last year, the second-highest level in the 2020s.

Figure 1. Imports of Persian Gulf Crude Oil by PADD, 2020-25. Source: EIA

Operation EPIC FURY -- April 12, 2026

Locator: 50514EPICFURY.

Updates

Later, 11:05 p.m. CT: yes, WTI has hit $105 / bbl (actually $104.90) right now.

Later, 8:29 p.m. CT: if the US blockades Iran so that China has no access, does that give "license" to/for China to blockade Taiwan? Asking for a friend. Some Americans, no doubt, see China-Taiwan as an Asian problem. 

Later, 6:05 p.m. CT: it's very possible Trump could extend another olive branch. Not launching any missiles, drones, or bombs in anger -- waiting for Iran to take the first shot. Trump could easily go the peaceful route -- a blockade and minesweepers. But once Iran takes that first shot ...  

Re-posting. 

Locator: 50511IRAN.

The Brits have finally agreed to help Trump blockade the strait. The problem: the UK no longer has a navy. [Later: nope, that's wrong. Now the UK says it won't have anything to do with the blockade. The Prime Minister was just briefed that the UK has no navy.]

Will WTI go over $100 tonight? Seriously I asked that question at 5:12 p.m. CT and then checked oilprice. I guess I should have asked if WTI would go over $105 overnight? 

If it's to be believed, and I think it is entirely believable: President Trump had only one red line with regard to Iran -- and it was all about uranium. 

That speaks volumes. 

Mainstream media has still not reported correctly Iran's strategic plan.  

On another note, does one get the feeling that up until now, Operation EPIC FURY before the cease-fire was just the warm-up. 

Trump gave Iran one last chance to make a deal.

Now, the Allies and Iran are playing for all the marbles, as they say.  

The fact that the US Navy has brought in underwater drones to clear mines speaks volumes.  

 

USPS: Population -- Two Populations -- April 12, 2026

Locator: 50513USPS.

See also this post: link here.

Current employees: 531,000. 

USPS retirees (USPS pensioners): 700,000.