TSMC -- Huge News -- Again -- Thursday -- July 16, 2026

Locator: 51183MISC.

Dell continues to fall while AAPL continues to rise. 

• moats (large cash; relevancy; ability to make big deals)
• China growth 
• business models 

Mideast: fifth consecutive day of allied attacks on Iran.  

US LNG exports:

• page 1: Putin cuts off natural gas to Europe (a long time ago)
• page 2: now, the Strait. 
• Quick, who's leading Iran. now? 
• The Supreme Leader of Iran is Mojtaba Khamenei or IGRC? 
• Certainly not "the moderates," and the term is used loosely.

TSM: big news overnight but lost in all the other chatter ... from a reader ... 

PGA (golf): Open this week/weekend. Certainly not the days of Tiger Woods.

• Scheffler: tied, 13th. But certainly not out of it yet. But if he has a second day like today, he wil be out of it.
• DeChambeau: tied, 4th.
• Rory McIlroy: tied...... 104th. Are. you kidding me?

Mostly just observations and stories that interested me.

The market: acting very strange today. 

Some great buying opportunities, but market seemed to pivot around 1:30 p.m. ET -- influencers, traders just came back from 3-martini lunch. Wow, something in my portfolio really changed near the close -- to the upside -- very, very strange -- has to be AAPL or energy -- what's WTI doing now? Nope, WTI is still negative for the day. MPC? Great day. Ah, here it is. CVX. Again, for the family, not general readership. 

WTI: is down about 1%; now trading at $79. Why does this interest me?

• this comes on a day that Iran:
• says they aren't backing down; and,
• they have announced they're ready to get the Houthis involved to shut down other oil routes;
• as noted prior: the Mideast, currently, appears irrelevant to US investors
• what will move price of WTI?
• China; and,
• SPR.

Taxes: huge earners moving to no-income-tax states (TX, FL, TN)

• even if Governor Newsom gets his way for a national / federal "high-net-wealth-tax" (which won't happen for at least five years:
• states like California, New York, won't stop their programs;
• money going to the feds doesn't necessarily help individual states much;
• DOW/DOD; HHS; and debt will simply suck up all that extra income. 
• being reported in some mainstream media, not others.
• my link is being blocked by the host. Nothing new; that source has always been blocked.
• top Google link: Kiplinger, April 6, 2026; link here.
• so I asked Gemini for NYT links -- result:

TSM: another $100 billion for its chip-making plant in Arizona. Link here. 

TSM: profits soar. Link here. Shares dip.

Investing: for the family, not for general readership -- I pivoted from tech to health about a year ago.

• I still buy tech when opportunities are too good to ignore; but,
• I generally stick with ETFs with regard to health, and,
• I am tip-toeing into banks. 

IHE vs IYH: it seems IHE is preferable.

Again, for family only, not general readership: I have held LNG / utilities "forever" but am interested in increasing holdings for the grandchildren. 

Query: if investing in US LNG exports, suggestions? SRE, LNG, VG, ETFs?

Reply:

ETFs do pay dividends if their holdings pay dividends, and Schwab does indeed include ETF dividends in their quarterly investment income but it's pretty much based on historical payouts. 

 

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

Thursday -- July 16, 2026

Locator: 51182B.

Apple: 

Apple:

This explains "Lulu's" recent rants about Trump and the Mideast:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.08.

New wells reporting:

• Friday, July 17, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 381 for the year, 
• 42446, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hoiby 158-94-4C-3-4H, 
• 22057, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 29-32 1H, 
• 22056, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 29-32 2H, 
• Thursday, July 16, 2026: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 378 for the year, 
• 41697, conf, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-9,

RBN Energy: will increased natural gas demand and new pipelines spur higher northeast output? Link here. Archived.

Demand for natural gas in the Northeast regional market and pipeline capacity out of Appalachia are expected to grow in the coming years as more coal plants retire and more data centers come online, but will production necessarily follow suit? Even if market conditions improve, it’s not a done deal. Operators in the region remain largely focused on capital discipline rather than chasing incremental volumes. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at which producers are best positioned to grow if conditions warrant.

Today’s blog is part of our broader Northeast natural gas series and marks a shift from pipelines and other infrastructure to producers and where growth might — or might not — show up. We’ve already taken an in‑depth look at new pipeline capacity and the potential impact of new data centers on the Northeast gas market, but we can’t promise a “Field of Dreams” outcome. Just because pipeline capacity is being added doesn’t mean significant new production will automatically follow. On paper, added pipeline capacity and rising demand could support more output, but there’s still plenty of market skepticism about whether producers will deviate from the current strategy to focus on growth. Appalachia has had several years of flat production growth averaging around 33 to 36 Bcf/d since 2020 for a number of reasons, with almost all their drilled wells in either northeastern Pennsylvania or the southwestern Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia/eastern Ohio area (see Figure 1 below). Capital discipline has been the dominant theme, as most producers have prioritized investor demands for free cash flow over growth for its own sake.

US SPR -- July 15, 2026

Locator: 51181SPR.

Link here.

This is either going to be really, really important ... or not. 

It seems to be one of those "things" that doesn't matter ... until it does. 

The statutory operational minimum, Congressionally-mandated: 150 million bbls but there are discussions regarding the "physical" operational limits ... which could be as high as 300 million bbls. 

I keep coming back to this: it seems to be one of those "things" that doesn't matter ... until it does. 

So, for the record / archives, WTI: $79.99.  Brent is slipping despite more Allied attacks on Iran.  Later: WTI is now $80.08.

South Korean stock exchange (or something to that effect) fell 7% after the South Korean central bank (or something to that effect) raised rates for the first time in three years. That's not happenin' in this country -- at least for now.

The US SPR could be Warsh's first test.  

Kalshi traders see gasoline considerably higher by the end of July.  

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Movie Night

Humphrey Bogart's Sabrina and Harrison Ford's Sabrina. 

Personal Mileage -- 2012 Civic Honda -- Short Trips, Expensive Gasoline = Poor Mileage, High Cost Per Mile -- July 15, 2026

Locator: 51180MILEAGE.

 

Two New Permits; Twelve Neptune Operating Permits Canceled -- July 15, 2026

Locator: 51179ND.

Roosevelt Library in the Badlands. This is a reflection of the Badlands on the grand piano. 

Global warming: this tells me all I need to know. The EU is more concerned about European AI than saving the earth. Whatever. And "taxing" Apple and Microsoft.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.60

Active rigs: 26.

Two new permits:

• 42781, loc, KODA Resources, Amber 3421-3BH, SWSW 34-160-103, to be sited 45 FSL and 397 FWL; Fertile Valley, Divide County;
• 42782, conf, CLR, Langved 5-2H, SWSE 2-155-95, to be sited 420 FSL and 2624 FEL, Beaver Lodge, Williams Country.

Twelve permits canceled, all in Williams County: 

• Neptune: CPEUSC Holmes (5); CPEUSC Chase Douglas (4); CPEUSC Manchuk (2); and, CPEUSC Campbell (1).