Five New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed; Three Permits Canceled; And Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 12, 2026

Locator: 50202B.

Rivian: this may simply be a reflection of the overall market, but Rivian fell over 8% today. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $95.76.

Active rigs: 27. 

Five new permits: 

• Operators: Phoenix Operating (4); Oasis;
• Fields: Charlie Bob (McKenzie); Enget Lake (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has permits for four Logan Fed wells, SESE 32-146-98, 
• to be sited 523 FSL and 365 / 455 FEL;

Seven permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy (5):
• Neptune Operating (2):

Three permits canceled:

• Enerplus: Widgeon, Scaup, and Pintail, Dunn County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

• 41412, 748, Slawson, Atlas 5-21-16H, McKenzie County;
• 41413, 770, Slawson, Atlas 4-21-16H, McKenzie County;

Amidst Huge Fanfare, Rivian To Release R2 Today -- Said To Be A "Make-Or-Break" Model For The Company -- March 12, 2026

Locator: 50201RIVIAN.

News:

Summary: 

Average likely price:

Margin: 20%; $12,000 per vehicle.

Debt and cash-on-hand:

Production targets:

The math:

• current debt: $5 billion
• 300,000 units x $12,000 profit = $3.6 billion annually
• plus "technology sales/value/goodwill" to Volkswagen, others

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report For Week Ending March 6, 2026

Locator: 50200OIL.

This doesn't look like a nation short of oil or gasoline or jet fuel. And the US hasn't even come close to going to "war-time footing."

Link here: 

I used to track this on a weekly basis, then got bored. Understood it. Looks like I haven't missed anything.

WTI Trending Toward $100 Again By The Weekend -- March 12, 2026

Locator: 50199B.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $92.21. Up over $4 overnight; about 6%; Iraq has closed it exporting terminals.

New wells reporting:

• Friday, March 13, 2026: 13 for the month, 119 for the quarter, 119 for the year, 
• 42237, conf, BR, Sandie 2C MBH-R,
• 41821, conf, BR, Rolla 6I, 
• 41603, conf, BR, Sivertson 6F, 
• Thursday, March 12, 2026: 10 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year, 
• None.

RBN Energy: how coast refiners and their partners move refined products to Mexico. Link here. Archived.

Despite ongoing efforts by Mexico’s government and state-owned Pemex to boost domestic production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, the Mexican market still depends on imports from the U.S. for just over half of its refined product needs. And moving nearly 700 Mb/d of transportation fuels from U.S. refineries to population centers south of the border is no easy task, involving a combination of product tankers, unit trains, trucks and distribution terminals. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at U.S. refined product exports to Mexico. 

n Part 1, we said that Mexican demand for refined products has been hovering just under 1.4 MMb/d the past couple of years and that sub-par performance by Pemex’s six legacy refineries (with a combined capacity of 1.6 MMb/d) has left the nation of more than 130 million people far short of transportation fuel self-sufficiency. A seventh Pemex refinery — the 340-Mb/d Dos Bocas facility ramping up in southeastern Mexico — slightly reduced the need for imported gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in 2025 (stacked bar to far right in Figure 1 below), but it’s a good bet that a handful of refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast will remain critically important suppliers for years to come.

Overnight -- Literally Every Country In The Mideast Was Struck By Iranian Drones In Past 24 Hours -- March 12, 2026

Locator: 50198EPICFURY.

Meme. Wrong. "The biggest winner in the Mideast War: Russia." At the moment, I would say the biggest winner is Israel and it's not even close. For Israel, it's an existential issue.  

Hegseth: in the middle of a war that the US could very well lose, Hegseth is now on a mission to take on the "JAGs" across the entire War Department. We might need a few of those JAGs following:

• US strike on girls' school in Iran, using outdated maps? 
• US sinking of an Iranian training vessel off the coast of India? 
• it's being reported that one "general [more likely an admiral] said its more fun to sink a ship than capture a ship" 
• more likely apocryphal but the damage has been done 

Mideast: literally, every country in the Mideast was struck by Iranian drones in the last 24 hours.

• Iran: hoping that the entire Mideast politely asks the US to declare the war over and to go home. 
• we'll know more by Monday 
• could cheap drones take out floating mines had we focused on that technology? 
• how many mine-sweepers does the US have in the Strait? 

Whose decision was this?

UN: Security Council passes resolution condemning Iranian's actions, neither Russia nor China veto the resolution! 

Reporting: the press is doing a superb job reporting strikes in the Strait of Hormuz; not hearing one thing about continued B-1, B-2, B-52 attacks on Iran. 

Random note: not letting the US Marines blockade the coast of Iran was mistake #1, but administration was focused on body counts. 

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Meanwhile, Somewhere in the US

Could be anywhere. Most likely New York City, Los Angeles, or Albuquerque.  Name three places I would prefer not to live.

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Ticker

Amgen: 

• the 37% gain in six months did not excite me:
• the $101 increase in value over six months really excited me;
• currently paying 2.67% (not too shabby), it was paying 4% when it was trading for $260