Friday, May 15, 2026

Market Today -- Trump's Visit To China -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50821CHINA.

Personal portfolio:

  • I expected a loss of as much as 2% when I saw the price of oil and the market indices at the open;
  • in fact, my portfolio closed the day down 0.35% which I consider a huge win

Trump's trip to China:

  • at best I thought Trump might break even;
  • I assumed Trump was going to come away worse than he did
  • nightly news reporting: networks seemed to have trouble coming up with negative stories
  • mostly a break-even trip;
  • I expected much, much worse.
  • in the big scheme of things: a nothing-burger.  

Taiwan:

  • if done like Hong Kong, Trump seems to exude a willingness to support Number Eleven
  • quick: who's the elected leader of Taiwan? 

BRK's Power Bet -- An Analysis -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50820BRK.

BRK-B this past year: there seems to be a pattern --

Link here

When I listened to Greg Abel's comments at the annual meeting just a week or so ago, I had the same thoughts.

MMF -- Flat -- Minimal Change Week Over Week -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50819MMF.

TAG: MMFs MMF 

My favorite chart. 

The US equity markets have been on fire the past couple of weeks. 

Link here

Big Stories From The Oil Patch -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50818OIL.

Each day the strait is closed, the more irrelevant the strait becomes.

The big stories:

  • North America
    • improved shale production: Permian, Bakken -- posted earlier in the blog;
    • export terminals along the Gulf Coast 
    • Canada's TransMountain Pipeline -- see below --  
  • Mideast -- pipelines
    • UAE:
      • The UAE is accelerating construction of a new West-East oil pipeline to Fujairah, scheduled to be operational by 2027, aimed at doubling its crude export capacity to roughly 4 million barrels per day (bpd). This strategic project bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to secure oil exports amid rising regional tensions
    • Saudi Arabia
      • As of April 2026, Saudi Arabia has restored the East-West pipeline (Petroline) to its full capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day (bopd) following attacks. The 1,200 km pipeline serves as a critical alternative route, allowing the kingdom to transport oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and bypass the restricted Strait of Hormuz
  • different plays:
    • South America
      • Venezuela: recently covered by RBN Energy:
      • Argentina: Vaca Muerta -- Rystad, link here:

Canada's TransMountain Pipeline:


Top Texas Story Today -- Toyota Plans $2 Billion Expansion Project -- It Won't Be EVs -- May 15, 2026

Locator: 50817TEXAS.

Huge story. Announced yesterday. Announced literally the same day I posted the fasted growing cities in the US: top five were all in Texas.

Toyota

 Meanwhile, Honda, bet on the wrong horse: the comeback won't be easy -- WSJ -- 


Used EVs are now the most affordable car in the US -- The WSJ: