Thursday, April 16, 2026

Locator: 50544B.

US markets: pull back slightly after S&P 500 hits all-time record yesterday.

• BRK-B: down another dollar
• AMD: new 52-week high; up $14; trading at $272 
• MU: up slightly, essentially flat 
• GLW: continues to struggle 

Mideast: it still boggles my mind that folks who should know better -- 

• would like to see the US military weakened / defeated by Iran if it meant the end of the president's political future; their go-to article today -- "The War Has Weakened The US" -- The New York Times.
• feel Iran was perfectly safe with / entitled to nuclear weapons;
• going to war was not worth expensive gasoline 
• $5.00 gasoline in the states / $6.00 in California just to stop a nuclear Iran;
• the atrocities list is endless; abbreviated, going back to 
• NYC World Trade Towers, 9/11 -- 2001 
• October 7, 2023 -- Hezbollah / Hamas kidnap / kill thousand(s?) of Iraqis
• US Marines barracks in Beirut: October 23, 1983
• Iran using snipers to kill Iranian women protesting, 2026 
• everything else is noise 

Iran peace deal: won't give up (on) Hezbollah. See previous bullets (no pun intended).

*******************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $93.04. Oil traders must have been spooked by DOD's press conference this morning.

New wells reporting:

• Friday, April 17, 2026: 49 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 206 for the year,
• 40953, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-6-31H 1,
• Thursday, April 16, 2026: 48 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 205 for the year,
• 42182, conf, BR, Omlid 4--7 MBH, 
• 42180, conf, BR, Abercrombie 112MBH, 
• 41804, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3H,
• 41803, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3D, 
• 40954, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-8-17H 1,

RBN Energy: Will Surging Cash Flows Tempt Still-Disciplined E&Ps to Ramp up Spending? Link here. RBN Energy. Archived.

Weak Q4 2025 results provided a timely check-in on how upstream E&Ps were allocating capital in a lower-price environment — just before a sudden commodity price tailwind in 2026 from the onset of Middle East hostilities. Managements have said they would stick to the capital discipline that won back the hearts and wallets of investors; however, surging oil and gas prices this year are putting more cash back into E&P coffers. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q4 2025 cash allocation of U.S. E&Ps and address the question: Will discipline hold, or will temptation take over?

Across our universe of 35 companies, cash flow from operating activities (CFOA) declined 12% in Q4 2025 from the previous quarter to $24.7 billion, reflecting weaker oil prices. Despite that pressure, capital allocation priorities remained largely intact. Capital spending fell modestly to $15.3 billion, or approximately 62% of cash flow, preserving a reinvestment framework that has become increasingly embedded across the sector over the past several years.

The resulting $9.4 billion of free cash flow (FCF) — while down from the prior quarter — continued to be deployed in a balanced manner. Companies shifted toward net asset sales, generating $1.8 billion of net proceeds, while also resuming debt-reduction efforts with $2.2 billion of net repayments. Shareholder returns remained a core priority, with dividends and share repurchases accounting for 11% and 15% of CFOA, respectively, underscoring the durability of return-of-capital frameworks even in a softer pricing environment. These trends were broadly consistent across our Oil-Weighted, Diversified and Gas-Weighted peer groups, highlighting just how ingrained this capital discipline has become.

Taken together, Q4 2025 reinforced a broader structural shift in the industry — away from growth-at-all-costs and toward a more measured, cash-return-focused model. That evolution is illustrated clearly in Figure 1 below, which shows how reinvestment rates (blue bars and left axis) have converged over time to a rough 60% of cash flow, with the balance directed toward debt reduction, shareholder returns and opportunistic transactions. Even as commodity prices softened in recent years, companies resisted the urge to chase volumes, instead scaling back capital spending to preserve this framework.

Figure 1. E&Ps’ Reinvestment Rate, 2014-25. 
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC

Trump Signs Executive Order Granting Enbridge Cross-Border North Dakota Pipeline -- April 15, 2026

Locator: 50543PIPELINE.

Pipelines are intermittently tracked at the sidebar here, but that site has not been updated in years. 

Enbridge Pipeline 26, the Enbridge "Portal" Bakken Pipeline. 

The Enbridge "Portal" Bakken Pipeline system generally refers to a network covering approximately roughly 103 miles of Canadian pipeline, with an extension connecting North Dakota. The system is designed to transport Bakken crude from Berthold, ND, to the Enbridge mainline hub in Cromer, Manitoba. 

Before we get started, a digression.  Later in this post, we will see the pipeline referred to as Pipeline 26. It should be noted that the most famous US president associated with North Dakota, Teddy Roosevelt, was the 26th president of the United States.

Before we get started, another digression regarding Portal, North Daktoa. Portal is on the North Dakota - Canadian international border. Portal is located about midway, west-to-east on that international border. And this is its claim to history:

What a fitting location to place an international pipeline crossing. LOL.

Due to the "immensity" of the executive order, I expect RBN Energy to post a blog on presidential order at some time.  

This whole entry is a bit out of joint, because I was posting links / excerpts as I found them. I will start with the chatbot summary which will be more than enough for most folks. 

A huge thanks to the reader who sent me this story. I had missed it and I might have missed it altogether.

I asked the read if he/she thinks Trump ever sleeps.

From Google Gemini:

From x:

Also referred to as the Enbridge "Portal" Bakken Pipeline.

If I understand this correctly and it can be confusing, this is Line 26 that originates in the North Dakota Bakken and then enters the Enbridge pipeline, the Mainline Pipeline. 

North Dakota (US oil) will flow through Pipeline 26 to cross the Canadian border and then connect with Enbridge's Mainline Pipeline in Manitoba, Canada, and then flow again, south back into the US for points south.

Interestingly, there is a great map from an RBN Energy from November 19, 2025 -- no longer available without a subscription but here it is, link here. Archived here.The link will have a much longer story, but this is the map. Note the very, very small orange segment, Line 26, the Enbridge "Portal" Bakken Pipeline.

Here's the link to the RBN Energy story: link here.

But this is the most fun, link here:

The article continues but does not end with this. Go to the link for the full essay.

Is the number "26" connected with the state of North Dakota in any way. I don't think so; just asking in case I'm missing something obvious. 

There are some social media comments that President Trump previously "banned" this pipeline. Google Gemini says there is no evidence of that at all. It gets tedious.

When It Rains, It Pours -- A Lot Of Pipeline Stories Tonight -- Won't Get To Them All -- But First .... April 15, 2026

Locator: 50542RBN.

... I need to catch up on two RBN Energy stories; both are early access stories. If I don't catch them, I could miss them.

First, early release, Thursday, April 16, 2026 -- link here. RBN Energy. Nashville’s Growth Boom Could Have a Big Impact on Regional Fuel Supply -- archived:

Nashville is best known for its country music, but it’s also a fast‑growing gasoline and diesel market, uniquely positioned between the Gulf Coast and the Midwest. As the city rolls out massive plans for development — including an expanded entertainment complex and a new NFL stadium — space is getting tight along the Cumberland River, where several fuel terminals cluster. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how Nashville’s rapid growth could reshuffle product flows and what that means for refiners, marketers and shippers.

Nashville has no refineries of its own but serves as a terminal and distribution hub for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel across Middle Tennessee — the state’s middle third — and into neighboring states, allowing it to play an outsized role in the regional refined products market. The 2.5‑MMb/d, 5,500-mile Colonial Pipeline system, in service since 1963, runs from Houston to Linden, NJ (just outside New York City), and has many stub lines that branch out to supply cities that aren’t on the main route. Nashville depends on those stub lines to move barrels from Gulf Coast refineries into Middle Tennessee, while Colonial’s mainlines continue on to serve Southeast and Mid‑Atlantic markets.

There are three Colonial stubs that extend northwest from the main pipeline’s Atlanta junction in northwestern Georgia to Chattanooga. From there, two parallel stub lines — one carrying only gasoline and the other batching diesel and jet fuel (blue lines in Figure 1 below) — extend northwest to Nashville, while the third (not shown) runs northeast to Knoxville. Nashville’s 10 large refined product terminals are primarily supplied by Colonial’s stub and spur lines. (In its documents, Colonial defines “stub lines” as those extending from the main line, while “spur lines” are for local delivery off the system.)

Figure 1. Nashville Refined Products Terminals and Development Projects. Source: RBN

********************************* 

Second, Wednesday, April 15, 2026, Will Surging Cash Flows Tempt Still-Disciplined E&Ps to Ramp up Spending? Link here. RBN Energy. Archived.

Weak Q4 2025 results provided a timely check-in on how upstream E&Ps were allocating capital in a lower-price environment — just before a sudden commodity price tailwind in 2026 from the onset of Middle East hostilities. Managements have said they would stick to the capital discipline that won back the hearts and wallets of investors; however, surging oil and gas prices this year are putting more cash back into E&P coffers. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q4 2025 cash allocation of U.S. E&Ps and address the question: Will discipline hold, or will temptation take over?

Across our universe of 35 companies, cash flow from operating activities (CFOA) declined 12% in Q4 2025 from the previous quarter to $24.7 billion, reflecting weaker oil prices. Despite that pressure, capital allocation priorities remained largely intact. Capital spending fell modestly to $15.3 billion, or approximately 62% of cash flow, preserving a reinvestment framework that has become increasingly embedded across the sector over the past several years.

The resulting $9.4 billion of free cash flow (FCF) — while down from the prior quarter — continued to be deployed in a balanced manner. Companies shifted toward net asset sales, generating $1.8 billion of net proceeds, while also resuming debt-reduction efforts with $2.2 billion of net repayments. Shareholder returns remained a core priority, with dividends and share repurchases accounting for 11% and 15% of CFOA, respectively, underscoring the durability of return-of-capital frameworks even in a softer pricing environment. These trends were broadly consistent across our Oil-Weighted, Diversified and Gas-Weighted peer groups, highlighting just how ingrained this capital discipline has become.

Taken together, Q4 2025 reinforced a broader structural shift in the industry — away from growth-at-all-costs and toward a more measured, cash-return-focused model. That evolution is illustrated clearly in Figure 1 below, which shows how reinvestment rates (blue bars and left axis) have converged over time to a rough 60% of cash flow, with the balance directed toward debt reduction, shareholder returns and opportunistic transactions. Even as commodity prices softened in recent years, companies resisted the urge to chase volumes, instead scaling back capital spending to preserve this framework.

Figure 1. E&Ps’ Reinvestment Rate, 2014-25. 
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC

 

Apple Adoption Is Accelerating -- Source -- April 15, 2026

Locator: 50541APPLE.

Link here. 

Six New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- April 15, 2026

Locator: 50540B.

Iran: suffered $60 billion in energy infrastructure losses, and it's not over yet.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $90.74.

Active rigs: 19. Recent all-time low.

Six new permits: #42843 - #42848:

• Operators: Whiting (3); Enerplus (3);
• Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie County); Tyrone (Williams County);
• Comments:
• Whiting with permits for three Roosevelt Federal wells, NWNE24-150-103, 
• to be sited 511 / 576 FNL and  1583 / 1588 FEL;  
• Enerpus has permits for two Orcas State wells and one Berger well; lot 2, section 4-156-101; 
• to be sited 490 / 566 FNL and 2382 FEL; 

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 41478, 216, EOG, Wayzetta 413-0915H, Mountrail;