Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Notes And Comment -- Late Night Edition -- April 14, 2021

QCOM: I think this was reported earlier but over at marketbeat it was noted that QCOM increased its quarterly dividend from 65 cents to 68 cents. 

COST: at the same site (marketbeat), it was noted that Costco also raised its dividend.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Permian: the basin will never face a pipeline shortage again -- Irina Slav. For the archives.

A Closer Look At Today's EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 14, 2021

From earlier today:

Link here

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil in storage: 492.4 million bbls; only one percent above the five-year average for this time of year;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a non-trivial 5.9 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US distillate fuel supplies decreased by 2.1 million bbls last week, but still 4% above the five-year average;
  • US refiners operating at 85% their operable capacity;
  • imports, FWIW, averaged almost 6 million bpd; down by about a half-million bpd;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6 million bpd; 0.7% more than same four-week period last week;

So, think about that: possibly driving into the most uncharted territory ever -- coming out of a pandemic where people do not want to use mass transportation, and US driving season about to begin --

  • US crude oil in storage only one percent above the five-year average for this time of the year;
  • what about gasoline: production is increasing but inventories decreased last week;
  • gasoline imports are running about a million bpd day (rounded up from 839,000 bpd)

Now, more. The weekly EIA petroleum report was absolutely incredible. It paints an incredible picture of how fast "we" are coming out of the pandemic. 

Jet fuel delivery: look at the huge change -- this was such an incredible change, I had to check it twice:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 41

March 3, 2021

-24.20%

Week 42

March 10, 2021

-29.80%

Week 43

March 17, 2021

-36.20%

Week 44

March 24, 2021

-35.40%

Week 45

March 31, 2021

-30.20%

Week 46

April 7, 2021

-11.70%

Week 47

April 14, 2021

24.80%

Crude oil imports, look at the last column:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 41

December 23, 2020

5.6

0.140

-12.900%

Week 42

December 30, 2020

5.3

-0.238

-14.400%

Week 43

January 6, 2021

5.4

0.043

-18.100%

Week 44

January 13, 2021

6.2

0.900

14.900%

Week 45

January 22, 2021

6.0

-0.194

-11.800%

Week 46

January 27, 2021

5.1

-1.000

-13.900%

Week 47

February 3, 2021

6.5

1.400

-9.200%

Week 48

February 10, 2021

5.9

-0.700

-12.000%

Week 49

February 18, 2021

5.9

0.041


Week 50

February 24, 2021

4.6

-1.300

-13.300%

Week 51

March 3, 2021

6.3

1.700

-12.800%

Week 52

March 10, 2021

5.7

-0.600


Week 53

March 17, 2021

5.3

-0.332

13.900%

Week 54

March 24, 2021

5.6

0.300

-9.500%

Week 55

March 31, 2021

6.1

0.500

-9.400%

Week 56

April 7, 2021

6.3

0.119

-5.000%

Week 57

April 14, 2021

5.9

-0.411

0.700%

Distillate fuel in storage:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 20

January 6, 2021

6.40

4.0%

Week 21

January 13, 2021

4.80

9.0%

Week 22

January 22, 2021

0.50

8.0%

Week 23

January 27, 2021

-0.80

8.0%

Week 24

February 3, 2021

0.00

8.0%

Week 25

February 10, 2021

-1.70

7.0%

Week 26

February 18, 2021

-3.40

6.0%

Week 27

February 24, 2021

-5.00

3.0%

Week 28

March 3, 2021

-9.70

-17.0%

Week 29

March 10, 2021

-5.50

-4.0%

Week 30

March 17, 2021

0.30

-2.0%

Week 31

March 24, 2021

3.80

1.0%

Week 32

March 31, 2021

2.50

4.0%

Week 33

April 7, 2021

1.50

5.0%

Week 34

Apr 14, 2021

-2.10

4.0%

WTI Breakout? Up 5% Today; No New Permits But Sinclair Renews Seven Permits -- April 14, 2021

Where did all the rental cars go? The WSJ. Agree. I've seen it at our local Enterprise. Lot is generally empty; can't get car on 12-hour notice; not sure about 24-hour notice, but it's difficult. 

Ketchup: again a "shortage" is being reported. Not sure if it's a ketchup shortage or a plastic, individual-container shortage. Link here at The WSJ. Solution? Carry your own Ketchup and/or your own Tabasco sauce. I had my own Tabasco-camouflaged belt holder while in the USAF.

US Steel: 7% jump today. 

MNRL: on a tear, up another 3.6% today; now trading over $16. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Great Britain's dependence on imported oil: there's a big story line here -- I've alluded to it over the past several years ... from Financial Times ...


WTI:

  • up 5.25%; up over $3/bbl; trading at $63.34.
  • oil hits highest since mid-March on strong demand outlook.

Permian Basin: poised for a production boom

Road to Texas renewable energy: another round of power shortages grips Texas

WMT:

  • moving more part-time workers to full-time workers
  • Walmart's goal: two-thirds of workforce to be full-time workers;
  • WMT down slightly today; trading at $139/share;

Gasoline demand: for the first time since the pandemic began, Americans are driving more than they did in 2019 on interstate highways. Vehicle miles driven on interstate highways were up 1% on the week ending April 11, 2021, vs same 2019 week.

Gasoline demand, link here:

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.15
4/14/202104/14/202004/14/201904/14/201804/14/2017
Active Rigs1734636151

No new permits.

Seven permits renewed:

  • Sinclair: six Lizzie Rae permits in McKenzie County, and one Crosby Creek permit in Dunn County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36251, loc/A, Slawson, Osprey Federal 5-26-29TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36252, loc/A, Slawson, Osprey Federal 2-26-29H, Big Bend, no production data,

Re-Posting: Pending DAPL Decison -- Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Re-posting:

Link here.

If DAPL shutdown were to occur:

  • CLR says it would not be affected; doesn't ship on the DAPL;
  • CLR says it would affect Bakken light sweet by $1 - $2 / bbl:
  • operators shipping on the DAPL have contingency plans ready to go, posted yesterday; some operators are already booking CBT (crude by truck) -- a third-world option.
  • CBR: wow -- again -- CLR says a DAPL shutdown would impact Bakken oil by $1 - $2 / bbl

For me, shutting down the DAPL will be a "psychological / emotional" phenomenon more than anything else.

Most interesting to me:

  • DAPL is getting more press than the situation regarding Brent. 
  • Brent: trending toward production less than amount of oil that would be carried by DAPL + DAPL expansion.

CBR: look at that capacity. Blows me away.

  • look at all the jobs a DAPL shutdown would provide
  • reminder: BNSF generates 25% of all Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's revenue
  • I assume there are CBR options for Enbridge pipelines at risk running between Canada and the US;

Where we stand today:

Friday, April 9, 2021, day 0:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021, day 1:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021, day 2:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021, day 3:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021, day 4:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 14, 2021, day 5:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 15, 2021, day 6:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 16, 2021, day 7:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Saturday, April 17, 2021, day 8:

Additional Details On The Enerplus - Hess Deal Announced Recently -- April 14, 2021

There's a handful of "things" I like about the blog. One of the "things" I like is the sidebar at the right with all the links. Among that long, long list, are the deals for each calendar year. That section comes in quite useful.

I follow the recent Enerplus - Hess deal, 2021, here. 

At the time I missed the press release from Hess which was much more informative than the news reports. This is additional information not previously noted on the blog:

Hess Corporation announced today that it has entered into an agreement to sell its Little Knife and Murphy Creek acreage interests in the Bakken in North Dakota to Enerplus Corporation for a total consideration of $312 million, effective March 1, 2021.

The sale consists of approximately 78,700 net acres, which are located in the southernmost portion of Hess’ Bakken position and not connected to Hess Midstream infrastructure. Net production from this acreage averaged 4,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to Hess in the first quarter of 2021.

"The Bakken is a core asset in our company’s portfolio," CEO John Hess said. "Sale of the Little Knife and Murphy Creek acreage – the majority of which we were not planning to drill before 2026 – brings material value forward and further strengthens our cash and liquidity position."

The sale is expected to close in May 2021, subject to customary closing conditions.

See first comment. A reader provided this link regarding Hess and Guyana

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- April 14, 2021

Link here

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • US crude oil in storage: 492.4 million bbls; only one percent above the five-year average for this time of year;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a non-trivial 5.9 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US distillate fuel supplies decreased by 2.1 million bbls last week, but still 4% above the five-year average;
  • US refiners operating at 85% their operable capacity;
  • imports, FWIW, averaged almost 6 million bpd; down by about a half-million bpd;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6 million bpd; 0.7% more than same four-week period last week;

So, think about that: possibly driving into the most uncharted territory ever -- coming out of a pandemic where people do not want to use mass transportation, and US driving season about to begin --

  • US crude oil in storage only one percent above the five-year average for this time of the year;
  • what about gasoline: production is increasing but inventories decreased last week;
  • gasoline imports are running about a million bpd day (rounded up from 839,000 bpd)

WTI after the report! Whoo-hoo! I had not looked at this until now, but I thought the EIA report above was very bullish ....

  • WTI: up over 4%; up $2.50 / bbl; and now trading at $62.68;
  • a nice day for an E&P company to be "naked" (unhedged)
  • explains why EOG popped today

Re-posting:

Total cost structure; E&Ps; from RBN Energy, back in early April, 2020, almost exactly one year ago.

From RBN Energy the other day:

Annotated:

Notes And Comment -- Early Morning Edition -- IN PROGRESS -- April 14, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

US markets:

  • Dow and S&P 500: new all-time record?

US markets:

  • futures were relatively flat last evening;
  • at 4:00 a.m. EDT this morning, futures began to move up; subtle but very noticeable;
  • open: bank earnings "eye-popping"; across the board, well above analysts' expectations; as much as 80% above forecasts; most at 40 - 60% above forecasts
  • at open, Dow surges, up 170 points;
  • S&P 500: open up 7 points;
  • NASDAQ: up 30 points
  • WTI: over $61
  • pipelines (reminder: Texas pipelines will struggle this summer -- source):
    • OKE: up 1.4%; up 70 cents; trading at $51.78;
    • ENB: up 0.5%; trading just under $37;
    • EPD: up 0.65%; trading just over $23;
    • ET, most exposure to bad news: trading just over $8;
  • AAPL: surprisingly, after being up slightly before market open, drops back 0.6%; profit-taking;
  • UNP: up 0.4%; trading just under $223;
  • SRE: up a bit; trading at $135.45; several weeks ago, I considered this a $124-stock;
  • MNRL: whoo-hoo! Up almost 4% today; up 61 cents; trading at $16.31;
  • EOG: whoo-hoo! up over 5%; up $3.55; trading at $74

Total cost structure; E&Ps; from RBN Energy, back in early April, 2020, almost exactly one year ago.

From RBN Energy the other day:


Annotated: