Monday, May 18, 2020

If You Can Keep Your Head -- Idle Rambling -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 18, 2020

There's a Bloomberg (?) story out there tonight reporting that China is about to put a 100-million-population province back under draconian lock down measures because .... 34 new cases -- no deaths (reported in the article) ... but 34 new cases in a province with a population of a 100 million. Wow.

I wrote this before. I think it was a personal e-mail --- not on the blog. Folks are absolutely terrified of this. It does not matter their educational level or background but folks are absolutely terrified of this virus.

My wife; our oldest granddaughter (age 16); my Harvard-educated son-in-law; my Indian IT neighbor; my brother-in-law and sister-in-law; everyone in my little world is terrified of this virus.

I'm in the minority and I'm conflicted. Not terrified. Just conflicted. I know I've either had it or will eventually have it.

But everyone in my little world is absolutely terrified of this. Wuhan flu. Fascinating.

Years ago, in medical training, I was taught that when working in the emergency room and a patient went into cardiac arrest, I was to take my own pulse first. The point being: stay calm, stay rational, press on.

But even better, Rudyard Kipling, link here, it begins.
If you can keep your head when all about you   
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;   
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, ...

Turn Into, Yeah Yeah Yeahs

As I reflect on the above, trying to decide whether to post this or not, there is one group of folks that seem to be unbothered by Wuhan flu, not afraid of it, just frustrated that their lives have been interrupted.

The Enerplus Patriot Pad Wells Have Been Updated -- May 18, 2020

Production data for the Enerplus Patriot pad wells has been updated several times. I finally got my act together on this pad. The production data and the wells will be updated at this post.

These are extended long laterals, or super-long laterals or 3-section laterals, whatever one wants to call them. These are incredibly good wells. One is approaching 700,000 bbls of oil, cumulative since 2014.

Note: three of the four wells are 3-section laterals; one of the four is a standard two-section lateral. Based on cumulative production, one can guess as to the standard two-section lateral.

The WPX Blue Racer Wells And Small Jump In Production In Neighboring Well -- May 18, 2020

The well:
  • 20087, 378, Enerplus, Hudson 13-21H, Mandaree, t3/17; cum 371K 4/20;
See full production at this post.

Note: this was drilled back in 2017 and like most Bakken wells had a sharp decline to 4,000 bbls/month. Then, in 3/20, after being off line for only four days in February, 2020, had a significant jump in production.

Note recent production: 10,014 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to 20,028 bbls over days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020151001494294668851265331405
BAKKEN2-20202541424429144835211783813
BAKKEN1-20203042244356130535902351131
BAKKEN12-201930482946941321480136970
BAKKEN11-20193041024130891400229030
BAKKEN10-20193142434170998404929130
BAKKEN9-20192636393652828350525400
BAKKEN8-20193142664343123336273309222
Of interest, this well, #20087, is a short lateral running in the opposite direction, parallel the recently fracked Blue Racer wells to the west:
  • 36550, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum --;
  • 36504, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HD, Mandaree, t--; cum 65K over 61 days;
  • 36505, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Mandaree, t--; cum 91K over 59 days; Three Forks B1; FracFocus: fracked 2/20/2020 - 3/3/2020; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.0247; see this post;
  • 36506, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HG, Mandaree, t--; cum 78K over 56 days;
To the west, the nearest older producing well was taken off line 10/19; and, remains off line through 4/20:
  • 20320, 375, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11H, Squaw Creek, t5/12; cum 367K 9/19; 
36505:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030445584462424442542723247116876
BAKKEN3-202029450114478334565548232069729158

Small Jump In Older, Producing Hess HA-Link Well -- May 18, 2020

This DUC reported today:
  • 34829, drl/A, Hess, HA-Nelson A-LE-152-95-3427H-1, Hawkeye, t--; cum 35K over 31 days; 17,034 bbls over 6 days extrapolates to 85,170 bbls over 30 days; see below;
Several older, producing wells are currently off line. However, one of these older producing wells has been returned to prodcution:
  • 22801, 983, Hess, HA-Link-152-95-3526H-2, Hawkeye, t9/12; cum 310K 3/20; note small jump in production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020314274400068639231263266
BAKKEN2-2020394118429327419
BAKKEN1-2020936545116189582174
BAKKEN12-2019291354138958537313397334
BAKKEN11-2019301473148257537753434341

NDARC At 14; WTI Continues To Rise -- May 18, 2020

Active rigs:

$32.745/18/202005/18/201905/18/201805/18/201705/18/2016
Active Rigs1466615226

One new permit, #37582 --
  • Operator: Rimrock Oil & Gas
  • Field: Twin Buttes (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Rimrock has a permit for a Charging Eagle well in SWSW 21-147-92, Twin Buttes oil field;
Three permits renewed:
  • BR: three Patton permits in Dunn County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34829, drl/A, Hess, HA-Nelson A-LE-152-95-3427H-1, Hawkeye, t--; cum 35K over 31 days; 17,034 bbls over 6 days extrapolates to 85,170 bbls over 30 days; see below; see also this note;
  • 36505, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 45K over 29 days; see below;
  • 35031, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte,t--; cum 52K 3/20; see below;
  • 36590, drl/A, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H, South Fork, t--; cum 10K over 30 days;
Early production data for DUCs reported above:
  • 36505:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202029450114478334565548232069729158
  • 35031:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031134281340131655852984920
BAKKEN2-202026116381170026794694469120
BAKKEN1-202030124511234630704660937442819
BAKKEN12-201919132701303030155637550561292
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-2019008340000
BAKKEN9-20192834017003890389
BAKKEN5-20190000000
  • 34829: 17,034 bbls over 6 days extrapolates to 85,170 bbls over 30 days --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031350433532915426533062308230224
BAKKEN2-202061703416326408930343130342

Notes From All Over, Late Afternoon Edition -- May 18, 2020

Venezuela: one step closer to losing Citgo. From Bloomberg via Yahoo!Finance:
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an appeal by Venezuela in its fight to retain control of oil refiner Citgo Holding Inc., putting the country a step closer to losing its largest asset.
The justices, without comment on Monday, left intact a federal appeals court victory for a defunct Canadian gold mining company seeking to force the sale of Citgo’s parent company. The gold miner, Crystallex International Corp., is trying to collect a $1.4 billion arbitration award, most of which remains unpaid.
The rebuff leaves Venezuela at risk of losing a much-needed source of revenue in Citgo. The country’s opposition leader, Juan Guaido, has been fighting to safeguard the assets since taking control of Citgo as part of his power struggle with President Nicolas Maduro.

***************************
Fortune 500 -- 2020

Apple: fourth in annual Fortune 500 list of America's largest companies. Link here.  Based on revenue.
  • first, Walmart
  • second, Amazon,
  • third, ExxonMobil
  • fourth: APPLE
  • fifth: CVS Health

  • 6th: Berkshire Hathaway
  • 11th: Alphabet (Google)
  • 21st: Microsoft
  • 46th: Facebook
Full list here.

Most incredible: percent change in revenue, year-over-year (numbers rounded), among the top 200, some of those with the greatest percent change:
  • CVS Health: up 32%
  • Netflix: up 28%
  • Facebook: up 27% 
  • Progressive: up 22%
  • Amazon.com: up 21%
  • Synnex: up 19%
  • Disney: up 17% 
  • OXY: up 16%
  • Raytheon: up 16% 
  • Bristo-Myers Squibb: 16%
  • Comcast: up 15%
  • Tesla: up 15%
  • USAA:up 14%
  • Lockheed Martin: up 11%
  • Bank of New York Mellon: up 8%
Speaking of Tesla: today it was announced that the state of California has denied SpaceX funding.

******************************
Who Else?

President Trump says he's been taking hydroxychloroquine + zinc for the past "couple of weeks."

I wonder if hydroxychloroquine + zinc is "covered" by ObamaCare.

As for me:

Another Huge First For North Dakota -- Washington Post Analysis -- May 18, 2020

This is being reported at multiple sites. If you hit the Washington Post paywall, try the Independent Tribune. There are other ways to access the story.

From the lede:
In the first few chaotic weeks of the Paycheck Protection Program, federal officials and banks throughout the country struggled to get bailout funds to small businesses as layoffs and furloughs climbed into the tens of millions.
But there was one exception, a place where loans found their mark more quickly than any other: North Dakota.
Small businesses there secured more PPP funds, relative to the state’s workforce, than their competitors in any other state — more than $5,000 per private-sector worker as of May 8, according to a Washington Post analysis.
And North Dakota's "beat" was not by a small margin. A screenshot of as much as I could capture (the full table here):

Look how far Texas is down the list.

North Dakota was #1, it appears, in both rounds. NJ and NY took second and third by the end of the second round, but they really had to catch up after the first round. I assume governors Cuomo and Murphy were scrambling for ventilators and masks during the first round. Whatever.
 
More of the story here. It's so fun to read:
In the program’s troubled first round in particular, the state put business lenders in the rest of the country to shame. North Dakota small businesses appeared to have a significant advantage in administration and organization.
What’s their secret? Much credit goes to the century-old Bank of North Dakota, which — even before the PPP officially rolled out — coordinated and educated local bankers in weekly conference calls and flurries of calls and emails.
According Eric Hardmeyer, BND’s president and chief executive, BND connected the state’s small bankers with politicians and U.S. Small Business Administration officials and even bought some of their PPP loans to help spread out the cost and risk.
“They were really expeditious and efficient,” said Robert Hockett, a Cornell Law School professor and a veteran of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “There was no leakage — the sort of ridiculous fee-charging that tends to happen when you do it through larger banking entities.” He added later that because BND is a public institution, “it isn’t really designed to maximize revenue lines by finding as many places to assess fees or brokerage charges as possible.”

Death Takes A Holiday: Weirdest Graphs I've Seen For An Infectious, Viral Disease -- Sweden -- May 18, 2020

Later: see comments.

This is a graph of "new daily deaths" from the corona virus in Sweden.

The number of new deaths trends toward zero on Sundays, and tends to peak during the week.

Go to the link and check out the dates. Weird.

Sweden:


Compare with Norway. Norway did not report any deaths on the last three Sundays, May 17, May 10, and May 3:


Those were the only two countries I've checked. The spike you see in the Norwegian chart was April 20, a Monday.

Glitch Fixed -- May 18, 2020

Link here -- the oilprice glitch has (finally) been corrected.

OPEC Basket now reflects "official" OPEC site.


Market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earlier this morning:


Later:


What next needs to be done?


CLR: 1Q20 Results

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. The following is an incomplete summary and may include content and typographical errors.

Link here. Data points, some numbers rounded:
  • production
    • production: 361,000 boepd
    • production: up 9% year-over-year
    • production: 56% oil (wow, that represents a lot of natural gas)
  • costs
    • among oil-weighted peers, CLR claims to have lowest costs
    • $3.61 production expense per boe
    • $1.31 total G&A per BOE
  • CAPEX
    • CAPEX: $650 million in 1Q20
    • CAPEX tracking 3% to 5% below previously revised $1.2 billion budget
  • shutting down
    • currently no fracking crews in the Bakken; one frack spread in Oklahoma
    • rigs reduced to four by year-end 2020
  • earnings: 
    • net loss: $0.51 per share; with excluded items,  $0.43 per share;
    • adjusted net loss: $0.08 per share;

Flashback: Surge Of New Bakken Operators During Last Saudi Surge In Production -- May 18, 2020

Announced sometime in 2014, and continuing through 2016, Saudi Arabia tried to destroy the US shale sector by flooding the world with oil.

Surge of new operators, late 2015; through 2016 (all one link).

It will be interesting to see what happens this time around.

Although no longer in the Bakken, the company I am perhaps most interested in right now: OXY (not as an investment but as spectator sport).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

NOG: 1Q20 Results

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

NOG: 1Q20 results. Link here. Some numbers rounded:
  • production increased 28% over the prior year
  • production averaged 44K boepd
  • cash flow from operations: $94 million (does not include $7 million from changes in working capital)
  • 7% increase over the prior year
  • exceeded 1Q20 CAPEX of $87 million
  • over 27,000 bopd over rest of 2020 hedged at over $55/bbl
  • approx 20,000 bopd of 2021 oil production hedged at $55/bbl
  • 2020 total CAPEX now forecast to be between $175 million and $200 million, down almost 60% at the midpoint vs 2019 C&C and ground game CAPEX
  • as for liquidity and debt:
As of March 31, 2020, Northern had $8.5 million in cash and $590.0 million outstanding on its revolving credit facility. Northern had total liquidity of $218.5 million as of March 31, 2020, consisting of cash and borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility.
As of March 31, 2020, Northern had additional debt outstanding consisting of a $130.0 million 6% Senior Unsecured Note and $327.5 million of 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. During the first quarter, Northern strengthened its balance sheet through several negotiated agreements and open market purchases aimed at reducing the principal amount of the 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. In the aggregate, the company retired $90.2 million in principal amount of these notes during the first quarter. Furthermore, and as noted in a Form 8-K filed on May 8th, Northern has continued to execute on the reduction of its secured debt in the second quarter and has entered into agreements to retire an additional $6.1 million of 8.5% Senior Secured Notes. Upon closing of these transactions, the outstanding principal amount on the 8.5% Senior Secured Notes will be reduced to $321.4 million.

WTI Up Almost 10% -- May 18, 2020

Focus on fracking: weekly edition posted Lede and other data points:
  • global oil surplus at a record 18 million bbls per day in April
  • global oil surplus exceeds demand by a whopping 22%
  • horizontal drilling at August, 2006, low
  • for April, month-over-month, OPEC increased production by 1.5 million bopd, all of it coming from the Saudis (1.6 million bopd); the Emirates (332,000 bopd); and, Kuwait (259,000 bbls) -- every other major OPEC producer adhered to output allocations (again, Saudi shenanigans)
  • update on oil tankers off the coast of California; more en route (other source, previously posted); see comment at this post --
    • there was an 18.2 million barrel per day global surplus in April, so if this armada is a speculative purchase over and above normal demand, it would account for almost 13 days of it
  • DAPL not mentioned
Atmospheric CO2: on May 4, 2020, I noted there was little (no?) association between atmospheric CO2 and human activity.  Over the weekend the same was being reported over at Watts Up With That.

No deal: Total SA backs out of deal to buy OXY assets in Ghana. As recently as May 5, 2020, the deal was still on.

Five companies on "brink of financial disaster": NOG, Transocean, Chesapeake Energy, Denbury Resources, and OXY. Link here, May 17, 2020.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

China: demand almost back to pre-virus crisis levels.  Link to Bloomberg at  [Canada] Financial Post.

OPEC basket, link here: $26.54.


***********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:


$32.215/18/202005/18/201905/18/201805/18/201705/18/2016
Active Rigs1366615226

Wells coming off confidential list this weekend, Monday --

Monday, May 18, 2020: 55 for the month; 105 for the quarter, 332 for the year:
  • 35622, SI/A, CLR, Palmer Federal 13-25HSL1, Haystack Butte, t--; cum 15K over 23 days;
  • 34729, drl, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-2, Blue Buttes, t--; cum --;
Sunday, May 17, 2020: 53 for the month; 103 for the quarter, 330 for the year:
  • 35933, drl, conf, XTO, Hovet Federal 41X-29D, Haystack Butte; t--; cum --;
  • 35621, SI/A, CLR, Palmer Federal 12-25HSL, Haystack Butte, t--; cum 30K over 24 days
  • 34730, drl, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-2, Blue Buttes, no production data,
Saturday, May 16, 2020: 50 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 327 for the year:
  • 35747, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 3H, Poe, t--; cum 94K over 4 months;a 45K month;
  • 35669, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 5TFH, Poe, t--; cum 98K over four months;
RBN Energy: crude, gas and NGL midstream projects advance despite market turmoil. DAPL not mentioned. I did not find any news on DAPL after short google search.
Back in late March and early April, U.S. refineries responded to the sudden falloff in demand for jet fuel and motor gasoline by quickly ramping down their operations. Similarly, E&Ps in recent weeks have reacted to sharply lower demand for crude oil by slowing — or even suspending — their drilling activity and shutting in wells. Midstream companies’ actions have generally been more muted, though. While many midstreamers have ratcheted back their planned 2020 capital spending plans, the bulk of their major crude oil, natural gas and NGL projects already under construction are staying on-plan. Most of the rest are only being delayed by a few months, and a handful are either being reworked or deferred indefinitely. Today, we consider the midstream sector’s seemingly modest response to the crashes in crude oil prices and demand.