Thursday, September 20, 2018

Summer's Over -- September 20, 2018

This Is A Given ... But I Think He Is Only 2/3rd Correct

I think there is a very good chance the global internet will be split into at least three "domains": US, Chinese, EU. There are precedents: VHS tapes were region-specific.


The Dreaded Bakken Decline -- September 20, 2018

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.
Disclaimer: the "dreaded decline rate" in the Bakken has never bothered me.

Even though the "dreaded decline rate" never bothered me, I was always of the mind that the oil companies would "figure it out." The "production type curves" have borne that out. The decline rates have become less steep; they seem to plateau at higher levels; and once they reach their plateau they tend to stay there "forever." But this is what is unusual about Bakken tight, horizontal, unconventional wells compared to conventional, vertical wells: the former often see a jump in production for any number of reasons, and it appears one should anticipate a jump in production every five to seven years under optimum conditions.

A reader brought this well to my attention. I was initially concerned there may be a typo, and I would want to check this well again in six months to make sure these numbers are accurate. The best way right now to confirm the numbers are accurate would be to hear from a mineral owner who confirms the pay stub correlates with the data in this table.

Having said that, looking at the "bbls water" and "MCF prod" it appears the "bbls oil" is not a typo. I could imagine a typographical error in one cell or one column, but not typographical errors across the entire row.

I have not seen this before -- at least not to this extent -- this is simply incredible.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Total production in July, 2018: 166,978,000 / 6001 = 27,825 boe + 80,239 bbls crude oil = 108,064 boe -- and this is in the eighth month of production. Unprecedented as far as I know. 

This well:
  • 33039, A, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, t--; cum 282K 7/18;
Another Patsy well:
  • 33041, 606, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, t1/18; cum 197K 7/18; again, note the amount of natural gas produced in July: 199,349,000 / 6001 = 33,219 boe + 56,235 = 89,454 boe -- again, in the seventh month, and well above what it was producing in any of the previous six months. I think I know why but won't talk about it now. By the way, note the IP of "606."
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
The Oasis Patsy wells are tracked here.

Right now, three operators are really impressing me: MRO, Oasis, and Bruin.

I've not talked about Bruin but they have a number of surprisingly good "MHA" wells in Eagle Nest and McGregory Buttes, I believe. I haven't highlighted Bruin because there are simply so many better-than-average wells, but not as big as these MRO and Oasis wells. But Bruin either has found a great, great location or has some really good completion strategies. My hunch: a little of both.

The Oasis Patsy Wells In Siverston Oil Field Have Been Fracked -- September 20, 2018

A reader alerted me to this. Thank you very much.

The Patsy wells in the Siverston oil field are tracked here.

The Book Page

My book of consequence this week: Sea of Dangers: Captain Cook and His Rivals in the South Pacific, Geoffrey Blainey, c. 2009.

I'm in my ocean-going phase, I guess. This must be the third or fourth book along this line.

I really don't know much about "Captain Cook." I actually feel "much more comfortable with Ferdinand Magellan. Even more so than Christopher Columbus, of all things.

Paging through the book quickly, I think the references to England, and specifically, Yorkshire or northern England was what caught my interest in the book and convinced me to check it out at the library. I don't care for the cover, but I love the gravitas of the book, the pitch, font, etc.

So, we'll see.

An example:
James Cook was born on October 27, 1728, -- so this is slightly more than a hundred years after William Shakespeare, and half a century before the US Revolutionary War -- in the Yorkshire village of Marton-in-Cleveland, about fifteen miles from the North Sea. His mother was from Yorkshire, his father from Scotland. To be born in Scotland was an advantage, for the Scots were probably the most literate people in the world at that time, it is almost certain that Cook's father could read and write.
Let me digress for a moment.

If that intrigued you -- that the "Scots were probably the most literate people in the world at that time," you will be enjoy reading a most compelling book on the subject, How The Scots Invented The Modern World, The True Story of How Western Europe's Poorest Nation Created Our World & Everything in It, Arthur Herman, c. 2002. I've read it twice and parts of it many more times than that: the takeaway: the church, the law, the university.

Back to the book.

Cook's first voyage from Whitby (a most wonderful city on the cost, northern Yorkshire) was in the Freelove, a brand-new collier, or coal ship, buit at Great Yarmouth and carrying a crew of nineteen, of whom ten were apprentices or "servants."

I haven't yet decided whether to take notes while reading the book like I usually do, or to simply enjoy the book.


By the age of 17,  James Cook was living and working in the small fishing port of Staithes, about fifteen miles from his birthplace. Staithes is to the north of Whitby. While in England many years ago, I hiked the coast from Robin Hood's Bay to Whitby. Had we taken the inland route, the highway, it would have been about a two-hour walk, 5.5 miles. But along the very difficult and jagged coast, it took us six or seven hours, I think. I don't recall. But it was a very, very long hike, and very, very challenging. It would have been a tough hike for teenagers, and the two of us were each about 50 years old (both of us born in 1951 an this must have been in 2003).

I note that because in the book, the author describes Whitby which I recall vividly:
On a river estuary, at the foot of high cliffs, the cramped streets were bustling in daytime, and their little cottages housed families from which at least one person typically went to sea.
The river was the River Esk. The author fails to mention the great Whitby church. From wiki:
The Church of Saint Mary is an Anglican parish church serving the town of Whitby in North Yorkshire England.
It was founded around 1110, although its interior dates chiefly from the late 18th century. The church was designated a Grade I listed building on 23 February 1954.
It is situated on the town's east cliff, overlooking the mouth of the River Esk overlooking the town, close to the ruins of Whitby Abbey. Church Steps, a flight of 199 steps lead up the hill to the church from the streets below. The church graveyard is used as a setting in Bram Stoker's novel, Dracula
I remain a bit peeved with myself. I do not recall how much I knew of the Dracula connection when  I first visited Whitby. Suffice it to say, I would give almost anything to re-live that entire day.


I have read that the origin of "Dixie" is unknown -- the Dixie in "I Wish I Was In Dixie." I'm sure many will disagree with that, that the origin of the word is unknown. Be that as it may.

From the book, in the 18th century, a seaman could easily calculate latitude but longitude was a different story. It was nearly impossible. Captain Cook trained himself and "slowly learned to compute longitude with more accuracy, using a reflecting telescope, than most captains in the Royal Navy."
In London in 1768, the Admiralty were searching for a mariner capable of carrying out an unusual mission in the Pacific Ocean .... to track the transit of Venus. Multiple observations of the transit of Venus across the diameter of the sun from scattered parts of the world would provide the data necessary to calculate the exact distance of the sun from earth, a measurement that would prove vital for navigation and many other activities, according to Edmond Halley (of Halley's Comet fame). 
Seven years earlier:
Two ships left England in ample time to view the transit expected on June 6, 1761. On one of the two ships were two astronomers, Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon. They observed the transit of Venus from an observatory in Cape Town. Later they made a reputation in British North America by surveying the state boundary known as the Mason-Dixon line. Today the evocative musical word "Dixieland" commemorates the astronomer Dixon
But the measurements in 1761 were not as good as hoped for. The next transit of Venus would occur on June 3, 1769, but then after that, it would another 105 years before it happened again. Thus, the observations and measurements in 1769 had to be accurate; no failures accepted this time.
Captain Cook had already been chosen when Captain Samuel Wallis returned to England from his exploration in the South Pacific in the Dolphin late in May, 1768. Captain Wallis reported that he had found the ideal island in which to set up an observatory. It was King George III Island, now known as Tahiti. There, Captain Wallis confidently advised, the skies would be clear on the vital day, and moreover the native inhabitants, he explained with not quite the same confidence, were likely to be friendly. In June, the Royal Society accepted his advice.

Cook's timetable required him to be in Matavai Bay in Tahiti a couple of months before the transit of Venus occurred. After the transit, Captain Cook was to open his secret instructions. While the voyage to Tahiti was public knowledge, Cook's subsequent search for the missing continent was intended to be a secret. The competitive game of colonial expansion called for secrecy.

Eighteen New Permits; MRO Reports Six Incredible Completed DUCs -- September 20, 2018

  • Dow (irrelevant): third day in a row; triple -digit jump; today up over 265 points
  • NASDAQ: closes above 8,000
  • S&P 500 (very, very relevant): hits an all-time high; trading above 2,900; 
  • Russell 2000: fourth of four major indices to jump significantly today
  • WTI: dropped below $71 but still solidly above $70
  • 10-yr bond: the market should have crashed today; yielding 3.08%; by the way, CNBC talking heads now scrambling to explain why a 10-year bond yield great than 3% is not a bearish indicator;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs66553267196

Eighteen new permits:
  • Operators: QEP (12); CLR (3); Whiting (3)
  • Fields: Van Hook (Mountrail), Pleasant Valley (Williams), East Fork (Williams), Beaver Lodge (McKenzie)
  • Comments: QEP has permits for a 12-well MHA pad in SENE 28-150-92; 3200-acre spacing units, sections 30, 29, 38, 27,26 (laydown); centered in section 28 --
One permit reinstated, with new name:
  • 34207, conf, BR, Anderson Ranch 1C MBH (Rader Ranch 1A MBH-ULW), Camel Butte, 
Seven permits renewed:
  • BR (3): two Renegade permits and one Chuckwagon permit, all in McKenzie County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Eric Stratton Federal permits, McKenzie County
  • QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32011, 5,328, MRO, McMahon USA 13-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum --
  • 32013, 5,550, MRO, Tony USA 24-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum --
  • 32014, 5,666, MRO, Jackie USA 34-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum --
  • 32015, 5,156, MRO, Hal USA 34-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum --
  • 32851, 2,996, MRO, Brant USA 44-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum --
  • 32850, 4,871, MRO, Loftquist USA 34-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum -- 
    • nearby: 19064, 27366, 26806, 26807, 26805,
    • note: previously posted -- MRO is likely to be named the operator of the year in North Dakota

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+38 -- September 20, 2018 -- This Is Why Gasoline Prices Are Plummeting

NG fill rate, link here:

From John Kemp over at twitter:

WTI: $71.07

Stock market: every major index green. After two huge days, the Dow (irrelevant) is up another 211 points.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+38 -- September 20, 2018

I'm not home now, but I bet CNBC is talking about trade wars, the Canadian marijuana companies, and bitcoin, and doing everything they can to avoid mentioning that the Trump rally continues.

Later, this afternoon, CNBC will spend 45 minutes looking at charts, technical analysis, "head and shoulders" and the classic tea cup handle.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+38 -- September 20, 2018

Weekly jobs report: unexpected plunge.
  • consensus, new claims: 210,000
  • actual: 201,000
  • last week: 204,000
  • so, analysts forecast a jump of 6,000 in new claims
  • note: the four-week moving average of 208,000, last week, hit 50-year lows for the second straight week
  • Trump is being given no credit for any of this, of course 
  • not reported above the fold:
  • at at 201,000, this is the lowest level since November, 1969. 

The market: two days of 3-digit jumps in the Dow (irrelevant). So, what's the market doing today. Futures:
  • Dow, up another 113 points
  • S&P: solidly above 2,900 at 2,919
  • NASDAQ: up almost 40 points
  • WTI: unchanged at $71.12
  • UNP: down
  • AAPL: up
  • TSLA: up
  • SRE:
  • COP: down
  • XOM: up
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.

OPEC in disarray. Over at Bloomberg via Rigzone. An excerpt:
From 2011 onward, OPEC enjoyed years of riches and relative stability as oil traded near $100 a barrel, but a threat was emerging. A new generation of wildcatters from North Dakota to Texas was deploying innovative fracking technology to tap previously inaccessible shale oil deposits. OPEC was blind to the danger at first, then downplayed the risk even as some members raised the alarm -- reasoning that shale was an expensive business and the cartel simply had to bide its time. By mid-2014, U.S. production had jumped more than 50 percent, crude prices were teetering on the brink and it was clear this new industry was reshaping the global market as OPEC stood by and watched.
UK sees the light: Cuadrilla granted fracking consent for second horizontal shale gas well.

Canada, where hope springs eternal: battered oil-sands servicers pin hopes on Shell's LNG project.

Fracking: oil giants use size to overcome fracking challenges; Chevron employs "factory model" to manage shale-drilling operations in remote Canadian region. Williston's own Rollefstad used the phrase "manufacturing phase" years ago, anticipating this. I don't think there is anything of consequence in this article. The Bakken is way ahead of this. CLR led the way in pad drilling and Harold Hamm put a copyright/trademark on "Eco-Pad."
Chevron Corp. is laying the groundwork here for what it calls a “factory model” for shale drilling, master planning an entire region of small shale wells by locking up labor, building infrastructure and securing sand and other needed materials, all at once.
Shale drilling, once the province of small, scrappy operators, has run into growing pains in places such as the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, as producers struggle with pipeline bottlenecks and rising labor and material costs.
Big oil companies seeking to re-create the U.S. shale boom in countries such as Canada and Argentina are trying to avoid these problems by managing shale sites in concert to prevent logistical hurdles and streamline operations, similar to the way they run traditional oil megaprojects.
Already in Texas, there is evidence that larger companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil Corp. are weathering the bottlenecks and rising costs there better than smaller rivals—and continuing to ramp up production—because they have the economies of scale and wherewithal to develop their own solutions to these problems.
Universal Life Insurance backfires. At The WJS. Interesting article. Many story lines. Seems to be as much fault with the industry as with the consumer. This story is not new; it's been around for years. The question: what prompted this story to be featured again at this time? It's not at google, so "follow the money." I would start with Ken Fisher. LOL.

Three More EOG Parshall Wells Soon To Be Fracked -- September 20, 2018

See this comment over at an earlier post:
EOG has three other Parshall field wells on confidential 33373 33374 and34271, on section 13-151-91:
  • 33373, 33-061-04009;
  • 33374, 33-061-04010; and, 
  • 34271, 33-061-04154 
Existing wells were filled with 30 or 40 K barrels of water to keep fracking fluids out. They were taken off line to pump out that water but it's taken several months, so it seems. They used artificial lift (AL) to vacate the water from the flooded wells. The wells come of confidential 2/2019.

The Henry Hub -- September 20, 2018

I'm just waiting for the market to open. Only two more hours. Thank goodness for readers -- keep sending me notes ... this one caught the reader's eye -- Dorothy Parker and the Algonquin ...

... be that as it may ... I never in a million years thought it would be interesting to look up the origin of the "Henry Hub" but here it is. A pdf will downdown at this link:
Just out of curiosity: does Jeff even mention where the Henry Hub is located? If so, I missed it.

"Siri, where is Henry Hub located?"

"Did you ask where Henry your husband is located?"

"Siri, where is Henry Hub located?"

"I found four sushi restaurants near Henry's Hobby Shop."

"Siri, where is Henry HUB located?"

"I found Henry the eighth I am I am I am I am Siri."

Henry VIII, I Am, Henry's Hermits
"Hal, open the pod bay doors."

Mother Nature Colludes With Trump To Destroy China's Soybean Crop -- Annie Wu -- September 20, 2018

Speaking of global warming, it looks like China is getting a boatload of global warming. LOL.

I can't make this up: Mother Nature colludes with President Trump to destroy China's soybean crop -- reported one day -- again, reported one day -- after Trump signs the executive order levying tariffs on China.

How does one get Trump, collusion, global warming, China, trade war, soybeans into one story? It would be the perfect political story. Not quite. To be the perfect political story, Stormy Daniels would have to be mentioned. 

A huge "thank you" to the reader for alerting me to this article.

This is one of those articles that overflows with irony.

Readers will recall that the hurricane of the century was forecast to hit Wilmington, NC, as a category 5, until Trump threatened Mother Nature with sanctions. Florence came to a halt, spinning herself into a non-story out at sea, and then hitting landfall as a category 1, quickly dropping to a tropical storm (rainstorm).

Meanwhile, China levies huge tariffs on US soybeans in retaliation for Trump's trade war -- which at the time were only gleams in his early morning tweets. How that worked out for China depends on which movie one is watching. The movie I'm watching suggests that was probably not China's best moment.

So, now global warming. Just when China doesn't need it, China gets hit with a dose of global warming.  Mother Nature colludes with Trump to take down China. I can't make this up. From Annie Wu:

Chinese soybean production has dropped precipitously as unusually frosty weather hit key agricultural regions in early September, damaging more than 2.5 million acres of soybean fields and reducing the harvest by an estimated 300,000 tons in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang.
So, there you have it. If China was already reeling from a self-imposed soybean shortage, now they have Mother Nature colluding with President Trump to make things even worse.

I'm only hoping the weatherperson in Raleigh, NC, who reports this story is named Stormy Daniels. Then we would have the perfect news article.

How's The Frost Down On The Pumpkin, Loretta Lynn and Conway Twitty

By the way, what are some numbers regarding soybeans and China? From the article:
On August 10, 2018, Reuters quoted a Chinese agricultural official as saying that Chinese soybean production typically falls short of demand by over 90 million tons, and that it relies on imports to make up the rest. In 2017, China consumed more than 110 million tons, of which it imported 95.53 million tons, or 87 percent of total consumption.
When I read the first time, I thought the article said Chinese demand was 90 million tons -- no, China typically falls short of demand by 90 million tons and relies on imports to make up the rest. Again, and this is hard to believe -- China consumes more than 110 million tons of soybeans but needs to import more than 95 milion tons. Sure, that works out to 87 percent, but, seriously, tell me: if you consumer 110 of anything and you need to import 95 of that, isn't that like you have to import it all. Wow.

I bet Trump knew those numbers. Larry Kudlow probably did not, but he does now.

Why The Europeans Tried To Convince The World The Need To Go To Renewable Energy -- September 20, 2018

Natural gas: before we go any farther/further ...

Disclaimer: I do not understand natural gas. Or much else for that matter.

Now back to natural gas.

It looks like one of the many stories that is not getting enough play in the national media, much less the international media, the US is awash in natural gas. It doesn't need nuclear energy. It doesn't need coal. And it sure as hell, as they say, doesn't need solar and/or wind. Natural gas in the Permian is now trading as low as 50 cents / unit. See RBN Energy today.

In the old days, if you opened a new account, the bank would give you a free toaster. Here, the banks are giving you a lifetime supply of natural gas if you open a new bank. Some banks are still throwing in the free toaster.

The US is awash in natural gas.
  • in the northeast, they have so much natural gas they are shutting down new pipelines
  • in the Boston area, there's so much natural gas, the old pipes can't handle all the pressure (resulting in Armageddon for some)
  • operators in the Marcellus/Utica are diverting their natural gas to Florida (previously posted)
  • in Texas, as noted, natural gas in the Permian is trading for 50 cents/unit
  • California says it doesn't want any more natural gas
  • the Pacific Northwest has more than enough hydroelectric power
  • the upper midwest no longer needs to heat their homes in the winter -- global warming has solved that problem

The rest of the world is desperately short natural gas. Asians are paying $8 / unit for natural gas. The Germans are so hard-pressed they are selling their Faustian soul to help Russia finance a natural gas pipeline to Angela's penthouse on the Rhine.

The Germans and the EU saw this decades ago. The writing was on the wall. The US was going to have a glut of natural gas and the EU was going to go bankrupt paying for energy -- and that was before the aforementioned Merkel shut down the country's nuclear program, convincing Germans that coal was safer and cleaner.

The Germans were so concerned they begged Algore to write a book on global warming, hoping the US would be forced to give up fossil fuel and join the rest of the world with renewable energy. If everyone went to renewable energy, it would be an energy-level-playing field, they thought. Algore was promised a Nobel Prize if he would also do a PowerPoint Presentation.

I Never Promised You A Rose Garden, Trudeau's favorite singer

They had Obama in their corner; and the "world order" was almost ready to claim victory.

Then Trump came along.

Now that the US is not going down the renewable energy road, the rest of the world has a choice: depend on really, really expensive non-dispatchable intermittent solar/wind energy; or start building natural gas import terminals (which, by the way, Germany is now doing). Australia has also decided. Canada: eh, what just happened?

The renewable energy ploy almost worked. Jerry Brown, if elected to a fifteenth term as California governor, will continue to press the issue out west. And there's no doubt in my mind he will win. Anyone who can convince voters to pay $100 billion for a train to nowhere and one they won't see in their lifetime (or their children's lifetime for that matter) and who plans to launch a CO2-monitoring satellite will be able to convince Californians to build more dicers, slicers, and condor fryers.

Switching gears.

What does 50-cent natural gas mean for the Permian?  A couple reminders for newbies: the Bakken is pretty much a pure-crude-oil play. The Marcellus/Utica play is pretty much a pure-natural-gas play. The Eagle Ford, about 40-40-20 with the "20" being condensate. The Permian, probably 50-30-20, but it can actually be almost anything -- the Permian is so huge. But, for those folks who recently paid $95,001 for a mineral acre in the Permian, natural gas at 50 cents -- ouch.

Remember, you can still buy into the Bakken for under $100/acre.

The Permian:
  • short term, one year out: a lot of companies are going to struggle; I think a lot will go bankrupt
  • mid-term, out to five years: a lot of companies drilling today won't be in the Permian in 2023
  • long-term, out to ten years: those who survive will be doing very, very well
Now, for the best part. RBN Energy.

RBN Energy features a song to accompany their daily energy blog. Yesterday I spent a fair amount of time listening to some Guy Clark music. I forget what particular song, but possibly "Desperados Waiting for a Train."

In today's RBN Energy blog, the featured song is Guy Clark classic, "LA Freeway."

LA Freeway, Jerry Jeff Walker

The Early, Early Morning Note -- September 20, 2018 -- Natural Gas Is Plunging To As Low As 50 Cents -- RBN Energy

10-year bond: 3.083 percent. All things being equal, now that the 10-year bond is yielding more than 3%, the stock market should crash today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Way ahead of my headlights. I don't understand natural gas. We've been through this before. I may have it all wrong -- I'll let others fact-check me on this -- but overseas "they" are paying $8 for natural gas ("units" intentionally omitted); in the US, at the Henry Hub (or whatever hub "they" use, natural gas is selling for $3. In the Permian, natural gas is treading water (a strange metaphor, to say the least):
"Permian prices have so far managed to avoid falling below the dreaded $1.00/MMBtu threshold, a precipice that historically defines a gas producing basin as definitively oversupplied." 
See below. And now RBN Energy is reporting that Permian natural gas can be had for as little as 50 cents.

Peak oil? Yup, but this time it's Russia. Before reading any further/farther, consider the source. Okay, moving on. Link here. The article is simply quoting comments from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who I assume, has no agenda. LOL. Data points:
  • Russia's oil production could peak as early as 2021
  • why?
  • high taxes and costs
Other data points:
  • Russian oil production expected to average around 553 million tons this year
  • 553 million tons = 11.105 million bopd (11,105,000 bopd -- again, the false precision)
  • by 2021, production will rise to 570 million tons
    • let's do the math = 11,446,383 bopd
  • but then, production may start to fall and may reach just 310 million tons by 2035
    • let's do the math = 6,225,226 bopd
  • and then this: "Russia is capable of adding 300,000 bopd to its production within a year," the Russian Energy Minister said. The Russian energy minister did not say "which" year.
The Russian energy minister failed to mention that by 2035 everyone in California will be driving an EV, manufactured by Moonbeam-Mars-Musk Joint Ventures and even as little as 6 million bopd from Russia will be about 3 million bopd too much.

Must have been a slow news day over at

It's a slow news day here.

Weekly jobs report: unexpected plunge.
  • consensus, new claims: 210,000
  • actual: 201,000
  • last week: 204,000
  • so, analysts forecast a jump of 6,000 in new claims
  • note: the four-week moving average of 208,000, last week, hit 50-year lows for the second straight week
  • Trump is being given no credit for any of this, of course

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, September 20, 2018
  • 34359, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2A-S, Bear Creek, no production data, 
  • 31773, SI/NC, BR, Ivan 6-1-29UTFH, Elidah, no production data, 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs66553267196

RBN Energy: SoCalGas storage constraints sideswipe Permian gas prices.
It’s no secret by now that Permian natural gas pipelines have been running near full the last few months, jam-packed like Southern California traffic while trying to whisk away copious volumes of mostly associated natural gas to markets north, south, west and east of the basin.
Despite every major artery running near capacity this summer, Permian prices had so far managed to avoid falling below the dreaded $1.00/MMBtu threshold, a precipice that historically defines a gas producing basin as definitively oversupplied. That all changed yesterday, as word came in that Southern California Gas Company, one of the largest recipients of Permian gas, has nearly filled its gas storage caverns and will soon need far less gas hitting its borders.
That’s particularly bad news for the Permian, which has few other options if it needs to reduce the supply that is currently flowing west out of the basin to California. A large unplanned outage for maintenance was also announced on one of the pipelines leaving the Permian and heading north to the Midcontinent. As a result, the SoCalGas news and maintenance combined to put a huge dent in Permian gas prices, some of which plunged as low as 50 cents in Wednesday’s trading. Today, we detail this most recent development and the implications for Permian gas takeaway.

Soybean War -- Update -- September 20, 2018

I posted this a long time ago -- China may have shot itself in the foot, as they say, when they slapped tariffs on soybeans. A reader sent me the link to the same story, this time printed in, dated August 30, 2018, so I was curious how things were going.  Here's the screenshot:

The links:
So, we'll see.

The tea leaves suggest that the US is winning the trade war with China. I'm just waiting for reports of Chinese bankers jumping out of windows.