Disclaimer: the "dreaded decline rate" in the Bakken has never bothered me.
Even though the "dreaded decline rate" never bothered me, I was always of the mind that the oil companies would "figure it out." The "production type curves" have borne that out. The decline rates have become less steep; they seem to plateau at higher levels; and once they reach their plateau they tend to stay there "forever." But this is what is unusual about Bakken tight, horizontal, unconventional wells compared to conventional, vertical wells: the former often see a jump in production for any number of reasons, and it appears one should anticipate a jump in production every five to seven years under optimum conditions.
A reader brought this well to my attention. I was initially concerned there may be a typo, and I would want to check this well again in six months to make sure these numbers are accurate. The best way right now to confirm the numbers are accurate would be to hear from a mineral owner who confirms the pay stub correlates with the data in this table.
Having said that, looking at the "bbls water" and "MCF prod" it appears the "bbls oil" is not a typo. I could imagine a typographical error in one cell or one column, but not typographical errors across the entire row.
I have not seen this before -- at least not to this extent -- this is simply incredible.
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 31 | 80239 | 79817 | 59403 | 166978 | 161560 | 5232 |
BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 30 | 35021 | 34992 | 20965 | 63199 | 34891 | 28128 |
BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 31 | 29348 | 29348 | 20751 | 64418 | 47707 | 16525 |
BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 30 | 32546 | 32546 | 23430 | 64199 | 64019 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 31 | 37721 | 37739 | 27337 | 76684 | 76498 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 2-2018 | 28 | 28114 | 28096 | 24407 | 54883 | 33763 | 20952 |
BAKKEN | 1-2018 | 25 | 19815 | 19836 | 29310 | 23272 | 17167 | 5955 |
BAKKEN | 12-2017 | 31 | 19133 | 19112 | 37519 | 28094 | 18592 | 9316 |
Total production in July, 2018: 166,978,000 / 6001 = 27,825 boe + 80,239 bbls crude oil = 108,064 boe -- and this is in the eighth month of production. Unprecedented as far as I know.
This well:
- 33039, A, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, t--; cum 282K 7/18;
- 33041, 606, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, t1/18; cum 197K 7/18; again, note the amount of natural gas produced in July: 199,349,000 / 6001 = 33,219 boe + 56,235 = 89,454 boe -- again, in the seventh month, and well above what it was producing in any of the previous six months. I think I know why but won't talk about it now. By the way, note the IP of "606."
Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 31 | 56235 | 55939 | 77531 | 199349 | 193931 | 5232 |
BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 30 | 24611 | 24590 | 27437 | 77490 | 77310 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 31 | 32023 | 32023 | 32201 | 75564 | 75378 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 30 | 27088 | 27088 | 32816 | 59173 | 58993 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 31 | 31098 | 31110 | 34130 | 59675 | 59489 | 0 |
BAKKEN | 2-2018 | 28 | 17673 | 17661 | 27460 | 34539 | 16920 | 17451 |
BAKKEN | 1-2018 | 13 | 8644 | 8644 | 29643 | 32664 | 8653 | 23933 |
The Oasis Patsy wells are tracked here.
Right now, three operators are really impressing me: MRO, Oasis, and Bruin.
I've not talked about Bruin but they have a number of surprisingly good "MHA" wells in Eagle Nest and McGregory Buttes, I believe. I haven't highlighted Bruin because there are simply so many better-than-average wells, but not as big as these MRO and Oasis wells. But Bruin either has found a great, great location or has some really good completion strategies. My hunch: a little of both.
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