Friday, July 11, 2025

Breaking: AIR INDIAN 171 AIR CRASH -- FUEL FLOW SWITCHES WERE CUT OFF BEFORE CRASH -- July 11, 2025

Locator: 48715AIRINDIA171.

Preliminary report -- required by regulators to be published within 30 days of mishap:

Preliminary report for Air India is out. Here are main excerpts, time elapsed from 08:08:42 to 08:08:56 is fourteen seconds; from shutoff at 8:42 to crash at 9:11: 29 seconds.

  • 08:08:42: Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 second
  • in the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff. The other pilot responded that he did not do so.
  • 08:08:52: Engine 1 fuel cutoff switch transitioned from CUTOFF to RUN
  • 08:08:56: the Engine 2 fuel cutoff switch also transitions from CUTOFF to RUN The EGT (exhaust gas temperature) was observed to be rising for both engines indicating relight. Engine 1’s core deceleration stopped, reversed and started to progress to recovery. Engine 2 was able to relight but could not arrest core speed deceleration and re-introduced fuel repeatedly to increase core speed acceleration and recovery.
  • the EAFR recording stopped at 08:09:11 UTC

Updates

July 13, 2025: over on social media, folks are starting to ask -- why is this story getting so little media attention. Three reasons:

  • it happened overseas, in India, third world country;
  • armchair wanna-be aviators knew this from the beginning; it was the only explanation that made sense;
  • it completely absolves Boeing of any "complicity" -- haters so much wanted to see another Boeing "defect." In other words, nothing to see here.

July 12, 2025: there is one huge story not being reported by mainstream media or anyone for that matter. Although one analyst on YouTube did mention it in passing, he did expand on what it really means. 

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A Most Gallant Effort


The most remarkable story not being told with regard to the Air India 171 crash: the “gallantry” of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner’s effort to recover and avert the disaster. After both engines came to a stop after the fuel cutoff had occurred, both engines relit when the fuel switches were returned to the “RUN” position. The Boeing aircraft fought magnificently and struggled to remain airborne and attempted to start climbing once again. When one looks at the timeline, it appears that the plane came within perhaps five seconds of recovering. I know that’s giving “human qualities” to a machine, but I was astounded to see how incredible that jet was in doing what it was designed to do and almost averted the disaster. Boeing gets a lot of grief, a lot of it well-deserved perhaps (I don’t know), but in this case, the Dreamliner proved its airworthiness “in spades,” as my dad would say.

It goes unsaid, of course, these planes are incredibly sophisticated. Just the toggle switches themselves— turning off the fuel flow and turning it back on — amazing design. Having said that, one wonders if designers of commercial airliners might learn something from the USAF / USN when it comes to two-key authentication needed to launch a nuclear weapon. I don’t know the process in the current nuclear-capable aircraft, but in the FB-111, pilots sitting in tandem in the cockpit each had to be involved in the process of dropping a nuclear weapon and neither pilot could do it by himself or herself. Had one toggle switch been placed on the far left side of the aircraft and the other toggle switch placed on the far right side of the cockpit, this particular type of event could not have happened. I assume under the toggle switches, it’s all electrical cable. I can’t imagine it being a mechanical connection from the middle of the cockpit to the engines hanging under the wings

But, then, of course, is for any reason, one of the commercial pilots becomes incapacitated, one of the fuel flow switches to one of the engines would be out of reach.

The 30-day preliminary reports, required by regulators (ICAO) failed to record some things that were definitely known. There must have been a lot of discussion about what to put in that report, how to report that information, and what other leave out.

We know who was flying the plane and YouTube analyses are superb in explaining how all that occurs, how the pilots share duties. What we’re missing from the report is which pilot said what in the audio recoding. That’s obviously known — at least one would think so. My hunch is that if that information was released, the public might focus on one of the two pilots who would be doxxed and his family would be put at risk. As it is, families of both pilots may now be at risk.

Original Post

Link to NY Times here.

That was my first thought posted on the blog some time ago. If I can find the post, I will re-post it. But it was the only obvious possibility based on information provided. Analysis on YouTube by "most-experience" active pilot posting on this subject mentioned that as one of three possible explanations but was so incredibly unbelievable, he would not touch it, and he threw that possibility into "the waste bin of possibilities" and said he would not even discuss it.

The only two other possibilities:

  • fuel contamination (not possible); and,
  • full electrical failure (also, not possible). (I forget if this was the third possibility; I believe it was but will see if I can find original post; regardless the third possibility had to do with sudden mechanical catastrophic failure involving both engines, also a statistical impossibility).

But, it all makes sense. The first question/answer: it explains why the Boeing planes were not grounded after this and it suggests the investigators knew from the beginning and it will be confirmed on the voice recorder.

If any analogy: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's Sherlock Holmes and The Hound of the Baskervilles

I haven't read the full article yet, but I'll explain how this could have happened. There is a logical explanation and the NTSB folks knew it from the beginning and that's why these Boeing a/c weren't grounded in the first place.

Immediately after the crash, Indian authorities started changing scheduling routines and pilot training for Indian pilots. There will be a cultural component to this.

Hess With Permits For Six New SC-Foster Wells In Crazy Man Creek -- Southeast Of Williston, ND -- July 11, 2025

Locator: 48714HESS.

I would not expect to see these wells drilled, completed, and producing for at least another twelve months:

Updates

July 11, 2025: daily activity report with permits for six more SC-Foster wells -- see map -- this could affect a fair number of folks in the Williston (Williams County) area.

  • five 1280-acre spacing wells;
  • one 2560-acre spacing overlapping well

From the daily activity report:

Twelve New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- July 11, 2025

Locator: 48713B.

WTI: $68.45.

Active rigs: 31.

Daily activity reports for yesterday, Thursday, July 10, 2025, and today, Friday, July 11, 2025.

Twelve new permits, #42105 - #42108, #42110 - #42117, inclusive, #42109 is a permit for a SWD well:

  • Operators: Formentera Operations (4); Prima Exploration (2); Hess (6).
  • Fields: Smoky Butte (Divide County); Crazy Man Creek (Williams); and, Frazier (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • Formetera has permits for four Bull Mountain wells, SESW 31-162-97/SESE 18-162-97; 
      • to be sited 500 FSL and 2160 / 2265 FWL.
    • Prima Exploration has permits for two Gummy Bear wells, SESW 15-160-100, 
      • to be sited 343 / 373 FSL and 2290 FWL;
    • Hess has permits for six SC-Foster wells, SESW 20-153-99; and, SWSE 20-153-99;
      • to be sited 249 FSL and 2483 /2615 FWL; and, 249 FSL and 2615 / 2648 FEL;

Seven permits renewed:

  • XTO: three Harley Federal, Grinnell, McKenzie County; and, three Edwards Trust Federal, North Fork oil field, McKenzie County;
  • Formentera Operations, Curtis, Colgan, Divide County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 41245, 1,339, Hess, EN-Hegland-156-94-3229H-6, Mountrail County;

Change of operator:

  • we're starting to see a few wells being transferred from Petro-Hunt to Phoenix Operating.

The Book Page -- July 11, 2025 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Locator: 48712AMAZON.

Amazon: last of four "Prime Days."  

Huge reminder: almost any big ticket item (over $100) can be bought using Amazon's Prime Chase Visa Card or Affirm and pay over a full year at zero percent interest. That's really an amazing deal. One wonders to what extent Jeff Bezos and the bank debated over this. It shows Amazon's clout. Someone is taking the hit on that interest-free loan. Imagine: America's largest e-retailer, everything paid on a credit card, and interest-free for large ticket items and cash back on all orders.

NFL: considering an 18-game season. With more games and more international venues some are suggesting the league's season may have to be extended. During the transition, additional games could be scheduled during the pre-season. 

Tariffs: tariffs under Trump were always "personal." Now, it's out in the open. Canada is in a world of hurt. Canada's prime minister Carney was smart to respond to Trump's tweet / letter with a "measured / we will continue to negotiate" reply. Carney is looking at other markets than America. Shipping costs to the US are negligible; shipping costs to China, Europe are not trivial -- also lead time / shipping time. Right now, upwards of 35% tariff on all Canadian products -- I think steel might be higher.

Automobile quality: I was reminded again this week how insane the quality is for Japanese products compared to American-made products (automobiles). And German-made products, for that matter, also.

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The Book Page

Today I will be finishing up my summer reading program with regard to the Bible, Mideast, pre-history, Egypt, Assyria, Hebrew, to include:

  • Life in Ancient Egypt, Adolf Erman, c. 1971; Translated by H. M. Tirard with an introduction by Jon Manchip White; notes here
  • Assyria: The and Fall of the World's First Empire, Eckart Frahm, c. 2023. 
  • Stories From Ancient Canaan, Second Edition, Michael D. Coogan, c. March 15, 2012. Notes here.
  • The Invention Of Hebrew, Seth L. Sanders, c. 2009. Notes here.
  • Who Really Wrote The Bible? The Story Of The Scribes, William M. Schniedewind, c. 2024, Princeton University Press. Notes here.
  • 1177 BC The Year Civilization Collapsed, Eric H. Cline, c. 2021. Updated. Tracked here.
  • Thutmose III and Hatshepsut Pharaohs of Egypt: Their Lives and Afterlives, Aidan Dodson, c. 2025, The American University in Cairo Press (wow)

The last book to be read which I'm finishing today: Assyria, Eckart Frahm, c. 2023.

TGIF -- July 11, 2025

Locator: 48711B.

Felonies: I don't think folks realize that interfering with a federal agent, such as an ICE agent, will be more costly than the average DUI arrest -- time, money, and possible loss of a professional license -- and many of these folks are willing to sacrifice livelihoods for themselves and families for criminals. Truly amazing. These folks don't see themselves as tools of Mayor Karen Bass, a new metonym for sanctuary city mayors.

BRK-B: another huge decline today; looking at an opening down almost $4.00 / share. Meanwhile, NVDA opened "up" today: up $2.40 / share; up 1.47%; now solidly above $4-trillion market cap. BRK probably won't drop below its $1-trillion market cap but it continues to trend in the "wrong" direction, unless you're shorting it. Remember, this is not an investment site. See disclaimer. Later: in mid-morning trading, BRK-B is down almost $5.00 for the day. NVDA is up almost $3.00.

Best European ETF: Greece! Up 55% for the year. On average, European stocks have beat American stocks significantly this year. Look at your average mutual fund focused on American large cap vs European large cap.

Pre-market: a big drop at the opening ...  but yet Amazon should open higher. See my comments regarding Amazon over past few days. Amazon Prime days end in less than 24 hours.  I'll definitely get a few more items. Today will be a record-setting day for Amazon.

Gasoline: price of gasoline about to plummet. Will easily offset tariff-shock inflation.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.34. Recovers after yesterday's comments by Trump.

New wells:

  • Sunday, July 13, 2025: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 451 for the year,
    • 41449, conf, Kraken, Bubba 14-11-12 2H,
  • Saturday, July 12, 2025: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 450 for the year,
    • 40864, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 3H,
    • 40547, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-3,
  • Friday, July 11, 2025: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 448 for the year,
    • 40689, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 2B,

RBN Energy: ExxonMobil's strategy for wink to Webster Pipeline enhances control of Permian crude.

The Wink to Webster Pipeline, operated by ExxonMobil, stands out as the largest crude oil pipeline by capacity exiting the prolific Permian Basin in West Texas. What makes it even more of a midstream icon is the company’s hands-on management of the entire process, from the production well to the long-haul run to delivery to ExxonMobil’s refineries. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine Wink to Webster’s complicated ownership structure, how it connects directly to terminals run by its owners and its destination flexibility.