Apple Is Sticking To Its Knitting, As They Say — August 8, 2025

Locator: 48814VENOM. 

This is perhaps the most fascinating story in recent memory: Apple sticking to its knitting.

I'll provide narrative for the following when/if:

• I have the time;
• I have the energy; and,
• I think I have anything of value to add.

Item: which electronic consumers company has 2.35 billion active devices worldwide? Also, link here. Link here.

Item: the king of AI, Sam Altman acknowledges missteps with upgrade of ChatGPT. Link here. This just happened, in the past 48 hours.

Item: Rivian cuts production due to supply chain issues; particularly and specifically heavy rare earth metals and magnets sourced from China. Link here. Huge misstep for a company so dependent on heavy rare earth metals and magnets.

Item: Tim Cook / Apple considered the odd man out when it comes to AI. Think different. Link here.

Item: Tim Cook is considered the king of logistics; supply chain his #1 focus. Link here.

Item: Apple is sourcing heavy rare earth metals and magnets from US #1 source. Link here. Apple will likely be MP Materials’ #1 customer.

Item: Apple is quietly moving from the most-regulated, most-highly taxed state in the union to one of the least-taxed, least-regulated state.  One step at a time. $1 billion at a time. Link here.

Item: MP Materials operations in Ft Worth, Texas. Link here. Alliance Airport, Ft Worth, Texas.

Item: why MP Materials chose Ft Worth, Texas, for its refining and processing operations. Link here.

Item: timeline -- MP Materials moves to Ft Worth, Texas. Link here.

MP Materials is establishing a rare earth metal and magnetics production hub in Fort Worth, Texas, called Independence. This facility will transform rare earth materials from Mountain Pass, California, into metals, alloys, and finished neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets. The goal is to create a domestic supply chain for these critical components used in electric vehicles, drones, robotics, and other technologies, reducing reliance on foreign sources.

Item: an impending shootout between Apple's C1 chip and Qualcom's Snapdragon X85.

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More

Item: quick! Who's number one in wearables? Link here.

Item: services has nothing to do with sales of new iPhones or AI. Services has to do with 2.35 billion active Apple devices worldwide. Growth rate of Apple devices worldwide? Link here.

AI: wouldn't it be interesting if OpenAI offered ChatGPT for free to Apple -- overnight, ChatGPT might be on as many as 2 billion devices!

Venom — August 8, 2025

Locator: 48814VENOM.

For the archives.

Link here.

Link here.

I could be wrong on this but DOR for both STR and VNOM for dividend purposes appears to be August 14, 2025.

At The Close -- Another Record -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48813B.

BRK: owns more Treasury bills than the Federal Reserve. This is an old story, but has been updated. Link here. If this is how you like to invest, go for it.

Putin: sources suggest Putin will stop fighting if Russia gets "Eastern Ukraine." Before folks get too cynical with regard to this proposal, it's a heck of a better deal than the US got at the "end" of the Vietnam conflict.

Pipelines vs renewable energy: the state of North Dakota is re-directing money planned for renewable energy to natural gas pipelines. That about says it all. A simple search reveals multiple sources:

• Clean Sustainable Energy Authority (CSEA): A state board originally created to fund technologies reducing the environmental impact of North Dakota's energy industries will reportedly have no new funding for the next two years.
• Potential for redirection: Officials have stated that future funding from this authority may go towards projects using natural gas supplied by state-supported pipelines.
• Support for natural gas pipelines: The North Dakota Industrial Commission is actively considering proposals from companies seeking financial backing to build natural gas pipelines, including a potential $500 million guarantee to purchase space on such a pipeline, according to the Grand Forks Herald.
• Justification for redirection: Arguments in favor of prioritizing natural gas include ensuring energy reliability, particularly for industrial users, and managing the natural gas extracted alongside oil in the Bakken region. 
• [The real justification: new natural gas pipelines need financial incentives to press forward and ND really, really, really wants these natural gas pipelines -- or the state goes back to flaring!]
  

Fracking: Mexico is having second thoughts. Now, it's okay to frack. LOL. Link here.

At the close:

AAPL: before closing at $229, Apple hit an intra-day high of $231.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.88.

Active rigs: 33.

Seven new permits, #42194 - #42200, inclusive:

• Operators: Kraken (4); Hunt Oil (2); Whiting;
• Fields: Big Stone (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail); and, Foreman Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Whiting has a permit for another Link well, lot 1, section 18-150-101, 
• to be sited 394 FNL and 1130 FWL;
• Hunt Oil has permits for an Oakland well and a Severance well, lots 1 and 2, respectively, section 5-135-89, 
• to be sited 386 / 416 FNL; and 1300 FEL;
• Kraken has permits for two Apollo wells and two Turbodiesel wells, all in NWNE 19-159-98, 
• to be sited 615 FL and 1676 / 1775 FEL.

Alison Ritter -- Geoff Simon's Quick Connects -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48814B.

Alison Ritter -- Geoff Simon's quick connects:

• North Dakota officials give the go-ahead to Bakken-area pipelines -- Bismarck Tribune

• Two pipeline projects look to bring natural gas to eastern North Dakota -- KFYR - TV

• Minnesota Power announces plan for 200 MW wind farm in North Dakota -- Dickinson Press

• Energy officials from Pakistan will visit Minot as part of US State Dept. initiative -- KX News

• Basin Electric's $4B gas plant approved; set to be North Dakota's largest power source -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota landowners want to bring eminent domain case to US Supreme Court -- North Dakota Monitor

• Sensor-based light requirement waived for part of south central North Dakota wind farm -- Bismarck Tribune

• Interior Department has signed off on the expansion of Montana's Rosebud coal mine -- E&E News

• April Keystone Pipeline spill may have been caused by same issue in Walsh County -- Dickinson Press

• Greenpeace says ND judge shouldn't meddle with international free speech case -- North Dakota Monitor

• New Summit CEO teases 'updates' to business plan in letter to landowners -- North Dakota Monitor

• ND regulators join complaint against grid operator for 'egregious' transmission planning -- Dickinson Press

• Australia's Midwest diplomat visits North Dakota to promote shared interests -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakota farmers, ag businesses brace for blowback from expected tariffs -- Dickinson Press

• US Senate approves North Dakota military construction projects, veteran health care -- Minot Daily News

• Four improvement projects coming to state parks to take place this fall across North Dakota -- KX News

• Minot City Council rejects proposal to put half cent of sales tax to public safety expenses -- KFYR - TV

• Historic Pipe Bar and Grill in Killdeer destroyed in weekend fire; no one injured -- KFYR - TV

• NDACo and Divide County officials discuss impacts from latest legislative session -- The Journal

• McKenzie County economy shows resilience and growth in July -- McKenzie County Farmer

• Williams County preliminary 2026 budget released; could be up $17M over last year -- KFYR - TV

• Rural North Dakota is getting a major boost for grocery access; Washburn benefits -- KFYR-TV

• NPS awards $1 million to Turtle Mountain Band for park project slated for 2029 completion -- Dickinson Press

• Ward County commissioners need to cut $745K from property tax levy to fall under cap -- Minot Daily News

• With election of a new mayor, Minot City Council will be looking to fill another vacancy -- Minot Daily News

• Stark County opens six community gathering locations ahead of severe weather threat -- Dickinson Press

• BCDC launches mural grants to boost beautification and creative placemaking -- Bowman County Pioneer

• ND Dept. of Public Instruction looking to establish rules, guidelines for charter schools -- KFYR - TV

• 'Chokecherry parents' recognized with tree planting at Rickard Elementary School -- Williston Herald

• Big Beautiful Bill impacts school lunches in North Dakota with SNAP funds being cut by $186B -- KFYR - TV

• Ray city commissioners take another step toward opening new day care facility -- The Journal

• Two days of professional development for Hazen teachers cut out after funding stalled -- Hazen Star

• Center-Stanton's new principal sees connections as mission for success -- The Center Republican

• North Dakota schools seeing a change in the cafeteria with healthier meals implemented -- KX News

• National Science Foundation awards over $8 million across ten North Dakota colleges -- Kevin Cramer

• China is choking supply of critical minerals to western defense manufacturers -- Wall Street Journal

• Surging temperatures drive electricity demand in Lower 48 to record peak in July, says EIA -- Reuters

• As OPEC+ ends supply hikes, next move will require 'delicate balancing,' analysts say -- World Oil

• EPA pushes back rollout of Biden administration's methane emission rule for oil and gas -- MSN

• China's Foreign Ministry pushes back at US demands to stop buying Russian and Iranian oil -- AP News

• BLM calls new oil and gas rules 'noncontroversial,' exempts from public comment -- Inside Climate News

• Artificial intelligence needs energy- but it doesn't have to cost the planet -- The Energy Pioneer

• All spin aside, the emerging artificial intelligence will rely on natural gas -- RealClearEnergy

• States scramble to complete renewable energy projects before tax credits expire -- South Dakota Searchlight

• EPA plans to terminate $7B in federal grants for solar power projects in low-income communities -- Oil Price

• Democrats who drove up electric rates with the Green New Deal now blaming Trump -- RealClearEnergy

• Media in an alarmist tizzy over EPA plan to repeal "science" that's not science -- Climate Change Dispatch

• EPA administrator Lee Zeldin schools CNN for false climate claims on endangerment finding -- NewsBusters

"A Victory For Mr Trump And A Brushback Of A Judge -- New York Times -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48812BOASBERG.

Link here to The New York Times.

Goes Free -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48811ASSAULT.

Without comment:

Well, except for this comment: had that 73-year-old victim not been there, the assault on him would not have happened. When we lived in Turkey, that was also the law -- if you had not been there, "it" would not have happened.

CNBC All Morning Knocking AAPL / Apple -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48810APPLE.

I think talking heads are focused on the wrong thing. I used to think the same way. Then I had an epiphany. And then things changed. 

Most say the stock is too expensive (P/E).  Apple's P/E has historically ranged between 27 and 34.

Today:

This past month:

From the April lows:

Services has nothing to do with sales of new iPhones or AI. Services has to do with 2.35 billion active Apple devices worldwide.

Okay. Maybe I should be investing in McDonald's. Or Macy's. Or Ralph Lauren.

CNBC Talking Head: Liquidity -- Side-Line Money Drying Up -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48809INVESTING.

A talking head on CNBC this morning said that, with regard to the stock market, liquidity is drying up, suggesting less and less money available for investing.

Let's check.

Links:

• link here;
• link here.

New York Was In The News Today On CNBC -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48808STATEBUDGETS.

These numbers need to be fact-checked. Rounded.

Three states, population:

• New York: 20 million
• Florida: 23 million
• Texas: 31 million

Annual state budget, three states:

• New York: $254 billion
• Florida: $117 billion
• Texas: $169 billion

Illinois

• population: 13 million
• annual budget: $55 billion

California:

• annual budget: $300 billion
• population: 40 million

Apple, Samsung, Texas -- Three-Layer Stacked Sensors -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48804APPLE.

Link here.

From the linked article:

Apple is teaming up with Samsung to produce digital image sensors for future iPhone models.

This is tied to Apple’s Wednesday (Liberation Day, August 6, 2025) announcement that it is working with Samsung’s semiconductor facility in Austin, Texas, to launch “an innovative new technology for making chips, which has never been used before anywhere in the world.”

Samsung will use the advanced chip technology to produce three-layer stacked image sensors for next year’s iPhone 18 lineup, citing anonymous sources “familiar with the deal.” Sony is currently Apple’s sole supplier of image sensors, which are produced in Japan under contract with TSMC. Unlike Samsung, Sony doesn’t have a US-based chipmaking facility that would enable it to evade the incoming tariffs on chips produced outside of the US.

The Samsung partnership is connected to a $100 billion expansion to Apple’s American Manufacturing Program, which will now see the company invest $600 billion to bring more of its supply chain to the US. “By bringing this technology to the US first, this facility will supply chips that optimize power and performance of Apple products, including iPhone devices shipped all over the world,” Apple said in its press release.

More at the link. 

But holy mackerel! Three-stacked image sensors. Up until now, I was only aware of double-layer stacked technology first announced by Apple only a few months ago. Two- and three-layer stacked chips -- makes for faster processing speed. Also helps with size of footprint of mobile devices. Not sure if it helps with power consumption.

The Military Has Been Preparing For This For As Long As I Can Remember -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48803WAR!

Back in 1994 - 1996, I was on a USAF trip to South America, part of which was specifically designed around drug interdiction. That was some thirty years ago. President Trump has been in office for about six months.

It's important that President Trump not declare "war on drugs." Only the US Congress can "declare war," -- Judge Boasberg.

The New York Times reports, note, "secretly," LOL:

Meanwhile, Israel has made a decision that perhaps should have been made a long time ago. If the UN was not going to take care of the situation, and no country n Europe wanted to do what was needed, then someone had to do some adulting.

Tariffs -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48802TARIFFS.

Went into effect yesterday.

Already nations are showing concern.

Most recent, overnight: Japan is asking Trump for "repairs." 

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Automobiles

This is where Japan is really, really, really hurting.

Think Toyota!

Link to The Wall Street Journal.

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Tariffs -- Japan

My hunch: Japan is going to have to come around quickly with those "repairs."

TSMC Surges -- Tariffs Won't Affect The Company -- Comparing Ken Fisher And Warren Buffett -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48801TSMC. 

Ticker:

Ken Fisher and Warren Buffett:

Ken Fisher: per AI, August 8, 2025:
 
The data above, if accurate, compared with the data below, if accurate, suggests that Ken Fisher has recently made a big (?) investment in TSM.

BRK: per Business Insider:

Link here.

Status Of Proposed Natural Gas Pipelines -- The Bakken -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48800PIPELINES.

Link here.

A state official briefed regulators on two separate underground pipelines that companies plan to build across hundreds of miles of North Dakota, bringing natural gas from the oil fields in the west to mostly industrial users in the more populated east. 

Both pipelines — one by Intensity Infrastructure Partners and Rainbow Energy Center, the other by WBI Energy — would span about 350 miles roughly from the Watford City to Fargo areas. Segments would come into service in 2029 and 2030. The companies didn’t disclose the projects’ costs. 

The presentation to a state industrial panel of elected officials was among the first steps in a process for the state to sign on with a 10-year, $50 million-per-year line of credit. That is essentially a backstop so projects can proceed with the intent that the state back out one day when other users join. Companies won’t build a pipeline without firm commitments from users. 

North Dakota has a critical need for more natural gas transportation as oil wells age and produce more natural gas relative to oil, North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin K

Top ND Story Of The Year? August 8, 2025

Locator: 48799EPPING.

Search: north dakota basin electric largest project $4 billion.

This is 100% to support the growing energy needs in the Bakken. The project won't become operational until 2030. Think about.  

Will be sited between Epping and Ray, ND.

North Dakota Monitor: state green lights natural gas power plant. Link here. Post 4:30 a.m. Friday, August 8, 2025.

North Dakota utility regulators on Thursday approved plans for a large natural-gas power plant  that could become the largest single source of electricity in the state. 

Public Service Commission Chair Randy Christmann said Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s plan is well-suited to Williams County and provides the first additional baseload power in 45 years. 

“This is huge,” Christmann said, noting it would be the largest single plant in the state. 

The nearly $4 billion project near Epping is planned to be built in two sections, with the first starting to generate power in 2029 and the second in 2030. Each unit would be capable of generating 745 megawatts of power.

The Bison Generation Station would burn natural gas, which Christmann said would benefit North Dakota’s oil and gas industry. It also would generate power by using steam produced by the plant to turn turbines — making it the first combined cycle power plant in the state.

In a June hearing, Basin Electric officials said the project was not developed to meet energy demands of data centers.

This is 100% to support the growing energy needs in the Bakken. The project won't become operational until 2030. Think about. 

Basin Electric future projects will be needed to meet the needs of data centers.

From KFYR: link here.

Several large-scale industrial projects are coming to northwest North Dakota. With them comes the need for more power.

Officials with Basin Electric Power Cooperative met with the Public Service Commission in Williston on Monday to discuss how they plan to keep up with demand going forward.

With several planned data centers, oil and gas-related projects and potential residential growth in the region, making sure the lights stay on is important. Officials at Basin Electric said the proposed Bison Generation Station between Epping and Ray will help keep up with an ever-growing need for electricity.

The big winners? The local public schools. Wow.

“This project will significantly increase Basin Electric’s ability to supply energy capacity in the local area,” said Basin Electric Power Supply Planning Manager Benjamin Hertz.

TGIF -- August 8, 2025

Locator: 48798B.

Jobs numbers: revisions -- largest revision in 60 years -- on CNBC this mornig

• Harvard professor says most volatile time in economy in 60 years
• I guess he forgot about the Covid lockdown just five year ago
• and that's just a start
• it gets tedious

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $64.22.

New wells:

• Sunday, August 10, 2025: 22 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 500 for the year, 
• 39520, conf, BR, State Dodge 3C MBH,
• Saturday, August 9, 2025: 21 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 499 for the year,
• 41464, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 4H,
• 41270, conf, CLR, HM Hove 6-9H,
• Friday, August 8, 2025: 19 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 497 for the year, 
• 40900, conf, Hess, BL-Blanchard-155-96-2215H-3,
• 37542, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-LS-152-95-120H-1,

RBN Energy: the stars align and the western Canadian heavy / WTI differential narrows. 

Any number of things can impact the price of specific types of crude oil at various locations — supply interruptions, takeaway constraints and refinery outages, to name just a few. Every so often, the stars align and just about all those factors narrow the differential between, say, Western Canadian Select (WCS) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at the U.S. Gulf Coast to near-record levels. Well, that’s happening now, for the first time in five years. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the shockingly small WCS/WTI differential and what’s driving it.

In recent months, the price differential for WCS — and Access Western Blend (AWB), another grade of Canadian heavy crude that is actively traded for physical delivery to Gulf Coast refiners and exporters — have held near their narrowest values since the depths of the pandemic in 2020 (dashed red rectangle in Figure 1 below). Based on data collected in RBN’s weekly Crude Oil TradeView report, these two grades of heavy oil, priced in the spot market for physical delivery as a differential to the NYMEX-CME Calendar Month Average (CMA) crude oil price, have been sustained at discounts tighter than US$(3)/bbl under CMA since the beginning of June (dashed black rectangle).

Figure 1. Price Discount for WCS and AWB Heavy Crude Oil in the Gulf Coast.

Source: Crude Oil TradeView

This is the longest run of tight price differentials since the second half of 2020, when Canadian production curtailments in the wake of COVID disruptions created turmoil for the physical oil market. Only for a brief time in March 2022 (dashed pink circle) were differentials comparable to the current and 2020 tight price differential cycles. For most of the past five years, the differential has been between $(5)/bbl and $(20)/bbl, with the widest differentials coming in late 2022 and early 2023 when a host of international factors pressured the price discounts wider (see I Go to Extremes). These included the nearly yearlong sale of competing medium-sour barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the heavy discounting of Russian medium-sour Urals crude that came about after its invasion of Ukraine and the international sanctions on that country as a result (see Synchronicity).