Locator: 48833B.
Until I saw this chart, I thought US oil production had flat-lined.
Chart of the day, link here:
Locator: 48833B.
Until I saw this chart, I thought US oil production had flat-lined.
Chart of the day, link here:
Locator: 44540ARCHIVES.
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LNG
A must-read: the history of US LNG export. Two big takeaways:
A third big takeaway: American exceptionalism.
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The Book Page
I simply don't find such quality tweets over at Bluesky.
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Netflix
Set streaming records. Link to The New York Times.
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Hertz -- The Day The Music Died
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ISO-NE
Trending toward $180. Link here.
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Seasonal Flu
Two weeks from now, should start to get interesting.
One wonders if RFK, Jr. has had his annual flu shot. LOL.
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Recipes
Big batch eggs.
In land area, Indonesia is smaller than Denmark. Hold that thought.
Countries strongly dependent upon coal, ZeroHedge:
Oil: meanwhile the stories keep coming in -- shortage of crude oil; end-of-year crude oil could see $90-Brent; $87-WTI. With WTI at $84 yesterday, I don't see a lot of difference between yesterday's price and end-of-year price as forecast by Goldman's Jeff Curie. Remember: whether or not guys like Jeff Curie are right or wrong, folks make decisions based on their estimates.
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Americans on the Move
Moving company, Mayflower, data:
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Lana Del Rey
Eighth album: Blue Bannisters.
Apparently just released.
Full album is already on YouTube.
Her fans are incredible.
I'm back. Sorry for the late start. I had to take our car in for annual inspection and because I'm home alone, had to get the bike on the carrier, and then ride the bike home. Reverse the process later today.
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US crude oil imports, link here.
OPEC basket, link here: pretty much levels off at $40.45 despite issues in Norway, US Gulf.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $41.09 | 10/8/2020 | 10/08/2019 | 10/08/2018 | 10/08/2017 | 10/08/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 13 | 56 | 64 | 59 | 33 |
Three wells coming off confidential list -- Thursdy, October 8, 2020: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter, 676 for the year
RBN Energy: Covid-19 slowing progress on LNG Canada project. Archived.
When plans for LNG Canada, a big LNG export project on the British Columbia coast, were sanctioned two years ago this month, the move came as a welcome sign that Western Canadian natural gas producers might finally be able to break their long-standing reliance on just one export customer: the U.S. Access to Asian and other overseas gas markets became a high priority, in part because U.S. demand for Canadian gas had been sagging for years as production in the Marcellus/Utica and other U.S. plays came to meet the vast majority of domestic needs. But while construction on LNG Canada has steadily advanced, there are signs that delays could be mounting. Today, we begin a two-part update on this all-important Canadian LNG export project and its accompanying Coastal GasLink pipeline.
From the early days of gas market deregulation in the 1980s, Canada enjoyed an expanding love affair with its southern neighbor in the form of growing natural gas exports. With U.S. domestic gas supplies looking to be heading toward terminal decline in the early 2000s, Western Canada’s abundant supplies and rising gas prices throughout North America appeared to be locking in a vast, profitable, and long-term gas export relationship. Also, a number of LNG import terminals were developed in the U.S. in anticipation of shipped-in gas supplies from overseas.
That all changed with the Shale Revolution, which turned the U.S. into a gas production powerhouse. Steadily expanding U.S. gas supplies over the past decade reduced the need for Canadian gas and sent Canada’s gas exports into a sort of terminal decline of their own. The share of U.S. gas demand met by Canadian supplies collapsed (on a net basis) from 10.5% (~7 Bcf/d) in 2010 to just 5.1% (~4.3 Bcf/d) through the first seven months of 2020, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the same time, some of those U.S. LNG import terminals were re-purposed as export terminals deal with the new abundance of U.S. gas supplies.
Crude oil production generally decreased each year between 1970 and 2008. In 2009, the trend reversed and production began to rise, and in 2018, U.S. crude oil production was 22.8 quads, the highest on record. More cost-effective drilling and production technologies helped to boost production, especially in Texas and North Dakota.At the blog, search doofus-in-chief.
U.S. unconventionals will be crucial for oil majors in the near future – and the majors are taking note.
In a new report released by Wood Mackenzie, the potential of unconventionals in the Lower 48 is examined by looking at five U.S. majors (BP plc, Chevron Corp., Equinor ASA, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell plc).
“Following BP’s $10.5 billion deal with BHP, all of the supermajors have a footprint in the Permian Basin, and are poised to deliver an unprecedented phase of production growth that will see output reach new highs over the next decade,” Roy Martin, research analyst in WoodMac’s corporate upstream team.How important is shale to the majors?
Without their volumes, collective production from the majors would enter long-term decline from 2020.The majors:
The big player here seems to be ExxonMobil, who has the most acreage, biggest resource and highest peak production.Martin said no other major has comparable diversity across the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus plays.In the Bakken, XOM has XTO. From my perspective: blind luck, but I could be wrong. I often am.
BP’s deal with BHP “transformational” and makes it possible for BP to overtake Exxon to become the leading shale gas producer.
Chevron’s dominance in the Permian (with 2.2 million net acres) has made its portfolio the most valuable.For the record, my favorite major (not to be confused with "my favorite Martian") is Chevron.
“Underpinned by its low-royalty Permian position, Chevron possesses the most attractive Internal Rate of Returns (IRR) on new U.S. conventional projects among the majors,” Martin said. “Its future investment in the resource theme of $54 billion is second only to ExxonMobil.”Again, the emphasis is on the Permian. That's fine. North Dakota mineral owners are quietly going to the bank every month.
But the future played out differently than it seemed it would in the summer of 2008. Unbeknownst to most people, oil producers were experimenting with a marriage between two established oil drilling technologies — horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.
The success of this marriage would unlock oil in tight oil and shale oil deposits that had previously been too expensive to recover, and would result in one of the greatest oil booms the world had ever seen. In fact, the “fracking revolution” caused U.S. oil production to turn upward in 2009, and then rise over the next seven years at the fastest rate in U.S. history.
While it is still true that OPEC produced 42.6 percent of the world’s oil in 2017, the majority of new oil production since 2008 has come from the U.S.As I read that, my thoughts turned to the comments from two readers over at The WSJ:
The shale boys saved Obama from a total economic meltdown - now they shift into high gear. Amazing what creative people combined with private property can do. Meanwhile our "carbon footprint" keeps declining thanks to natural gas and not the government.
Wiki says the US oil and gas sector makes up 8% of the US GDP.The shale drilling did save Obama from a complete economic meltdown - but he spent much of his 8 years fighting the pipelines to deliver the oil, he kept the USA from exporting LNG for 7 out of 8 years - but he worked really, really hard to make sure Iran pumped as much oil as possible ( so much for global warming) - makes one wonder whose side he was on?
Now may not be the best time to unveil plans to export liquefied natural gas from the U.S. But don't tell Charles "Buddy" Roemer.
The former governor of Louisiana will formally announce Monday one of the largest LNG-export proposals in the U.S., at a time when faltering demand for gas in Asia, as well as low prices, threaten the viability of ventures much further along the way than his.
"There may be 40 ahead of us in the world already producing, but there are 30 behind us, and something is happening," said Roemer, chairman of a Baton Rouge-based G2 LNG. "This will be a powerful industry."
The company is assembling a project worth nearly $11 billion, which would make it one of the biggest energy undertakings ever in Louisiana. Over 30 years, G2 LNG would export 672 billion cubic feet of LNG annually to China, Europe, the Caribbean and India.Then a lot of warnings in the article about over-supply of global natural gas. But:
"Natural gas will be the product of the future," Roemer said in an interview. "It will take the place of coal. It will take the place of oil. It will be a threat to the old empire."
Moreover, according to Roemer, U.S. LNG will become increasingly appealing in comparison to gas from other, less stable regions of the world, like Russia and the Middle East.
"The thing that's attractive about America is its consistency," he said. "It's the fact that you make a deal and we honor it. It's not (Russian President Vladimir) Putin. It's not the Middle East. It's America, and I think this energy business will be important to America.
That's the reason we started this venture. I know there's competition. I like that. But the chance to deliver a promise made in America around the world is powerful to me."A huge "thanks" to Don for the link.
When SolarCity, the fast-growing provider of rooftop solar electricity systems, announced last year that it would begin making its own equipment, executives said they would focus on creating high-efficiency panels in an effort to reduce the cost of the electricity they sell. They announced on Friday that they had done just that, with a panel that converts more of the sun’s energy into electricity than competing products.
The company plans to start making the panel — whose output has been measured at more than 22 percent — this month at a small plant in Silicon Valley, said Peter Rive, a founder, but will eventually produce it at the enormous factory it is building in Buffalo.
The move into manufacturing, a business that has proved deadly for many other upstart American solar companies, came with the acquisition of a start-up, Silevo, and is intended to help the company compete with conventional energy sources once generous federal subsidies begin to phase out at the end of next year.
Although 22 percent may not seem like a tremendous level of efficiency, the breakthrough for SolarCity is that it can produce the panels at a lower cost than it pays to buy standard models but get more electricity out of the same square footage, Mr. Rive said.The more one knows about intermittent energy, the less one likes it.
Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. broke ground on the first component of a $6 billion expansion Wednesday that executives say could be transformative for the company.Part of the American Energy Revolution.
Crews are preparing a site at the company’s Baytown facility for a massive new ethane cracker, which company officials say will be the first new major facility of its type built in the U.S. in a decade.
The investment, which officials say will contribute to the creation of about 400 jobs, represents a huge step for the company that’s jointly owned by Chevron and Phillips 66.
Heavy snow walloped the metro area and surrounding communities Friday, persisting into the morning commute and making travel challenging during this unusual but not unprecedented dose of winter in April.
The amount of snow so far — 12 inches or close to it mostly along the metro’s western and northern edges — combined with below-freezing temperatures and strong wind gusts to leave motorists with a most unpleasant end of the week travel scenario. Across from Duluth, Superior, WI, was pounded with nearly 18 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service.I love that "unusual but not unprecedented" dose of winter in April ... journalists have fallen hook, link, and sinker for all that global warming talk, when they see this much winter in April, it causes "cognitive dissonance."
United Parcel Service Inc. is spending $70 million to add 1,000 propane-fueled trucks to its delivery fleet, the biggest bulk purchase of propane-fired vehicles yet as output of the fuel in the United States hits record highs.
The fleet, which UPS is buying from Daimler AG's Freightliner Custom Chassis Corp., will replace gasoline and diesel vehicles in Louisiana and Oklahoma, UPS said in a statement on Wednesday. The investment will include 50 new fueling stations.
The transition is expected to begin in the middle of this year and be completed early next year, UPS said. It also plans to introduce propane-fueled vehicles in other U.S. states.The North American energy revolution continues.
More crude oil is moving around the U.S. on trucks, barges and trains than at any point since the government began keeping records in 1981, as the energy industry devises ways to get around a pipeline-capacity shortage to take petroleum from new wells to refineries.
The improvised approach is creating opportunities for transportation companies even as it strains roads and regulators. And it is a precursor to what may be a larger change: the construction of more than $40 billion in oil pipelines now under way or planned for the next few years, according to energy adviser Wood Mackenzie.
"We are in effect re-plumbing the country," says Curt Anastasio, chief executive of NuStar Energy LP, a pipeline company in San Antonio. Oil is "flowing in different directions and from new places."
U.S. oil production has reached its highest level in two decades, while imports have fallen dramatically. A system built to import oil and deliver it to coastal refineries has become ill-equipped to handle rising production in Texas, North Dakota and Canada's Alberta province.
"All of the pipes are pointed in the wrong direction," says Harold York, an oil researcher at Wood Mackenzie. "We are turning the last 70 years of oil-industry history in North America on its head, and we are turning it on its head in the next 10 to 15 years."And the naysayers commenting over at CarpeDiem will continue to say that the Bakken is not profitable. Apparently the independent oil companies enjoy transferring money from the wealthy to the railroads.
For decades, the vulnerable desert tortoise has led a sheltered existence.
Developers have taken pains to keep the animal safe. It's been protected from meddlesome hikers by the threat of prison time. And wildlife officials have set the species up on a sprawling conservation reserve outside Las Vegas.
But the pampered desert dweller now faces a threat from the very people who have nurtured it.
Federal funds are running out at the Desert Tortoise Conservation Center and officials plan to close the site and euthanize hundreds of the tortoises they've been caring for since the animals were added to the endangered species list in 1990.
"It's the lesser of two evils, but it's still evil," said U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service desert tortoise recovery coordinator Roy Averill-Murray during a visit to the soon-to-be-shuttered reserve at the southern edge of the Las Vegas Valley last week.So, "we" euthanize hundreds of desert tortoises (on the endangered species list since 1990) and oil companies are charged with a felony for six migratory ducks allegedly dying in a waste pond during an unprecedented flood in northwest North Dakota. Don't even get me started.
Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPP) said shipper commitments support development of a 270-mile pipeline header system for delivery of ethane to US Gulf Coast petrochemical plants from the company’s storage complex at Mont Belvieu, Tex.August 30, 2012: Shell selects Pittsburgh for the new $2 billion ethane cracker unit (see original post). Ohio and West Virginia are miffed.
A giant chemical plant that processes natural gas is coming to the Midwest and Ohio leaders hope the state's newly tapped gas deposits, coupled with growing industries that use gas products, make Ohio the favored location.I think "Cramer" has talked about the revitalized polyethylene business in the US also (but I forget).
Shell Chemical is finalizing plans for a $2 billion complex that is expected to create hundreds of jobs and pull other industries and manufacturers into its orbit. Shell has said only that it plans to build in either West Virginia, Pennsylvania or Ohio, three states that overlay ancient shale beds rich in natural gas.
With a site announcement imminent, interest in Shell's decision grows keener by the day. The placement of the mega-refinery, called a cracker, could define where other major oil companies establish operations in the nation's newest energy field.
In North Dakota, an ethane pipeline is being built from Hess's expanded Tioga plant into Canada, for processing to polyethylene in Canada. ONEOK is building a natural gas liquids pipeline from near Williston to Kansas. In Kansas, the ethane will be separated from the propane, butane, and pentane fractions, with the ethane than piped to Texas for conversion into polyethylene. Hess's expanded plant in Tioga will be a technically "complete" nat gas processing plant, while ONEOKs will not separate the higher hydrocarbons from each other.By the way, the comment also noted that in addition to the giant chemical plant that will be coming to the Midwest (Ohio?), EPP is going to build a 1,230-mile pipeline from Texas to the chemical plant.
The ATEX Express - a 1,230-mile pipeline - will send about 190,000 barrels of ethane daily from the local natural gas producing region to Texas.With all these pipelines being built across the country, it begs the question: what was it about the Keystone XL that first got folks' attention. Once it became politicized, I understand it; but how did it become politicized in the first place? No wonder TransCanada was taken by surprise. The pipeline was a no-brainer: jobs and money for the states, and pipelines are about as ubiquitous in the US as lawyers.
As officials from West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania wait to see which state will get Royal Dutch Shell's multibillion-dollar ethane cracker, a pipeline project will soon send ethane produced in those states to the Gulf Coast to be cracked.
Chesapeake, the Upper Ohio Valley's largest active gas driller, will be among the companies sending the ethane south via the Appalachia to Texas pipeline, also known as ATEX Express. The pipeline's owner is Enterprise Products Partners.