Friday, July 27, 2018

Global Discoveries Recover -- July 27, 2018


July 30, 2018: the increase is led by discoveries in Guyana.

One day later, July 28, 2018: crude oil supply crunch might be looming -- WSJ. Dearth of investments in oil projects mean a spike in prices above $100 could be on the horizon. Think about this: BHP takes a $10 billion bath on shale E&P. Do you blame oil companies for being hesitant about investing in new projects? Sure, the sector looks good under a Trump administration, but under anyone other than Trump, all bets are off. Best example: the US refinery industry bet on the completion of the Keystone XL, never, never, ever expecting "a President Obama" to kill the project. These two comments from readers at the linked article:
The shale boys saved Obama from a total economic meltdown - now they shift into high gear. Amazing what creative people combined with private property can do. Meanwhile our "carbon footprint" keeps declining thanks to natural gas and not the government.
The shale drilling did save Obama from a complete economic meltdown - but he spent much of his 8 years fighting the pipelines to deliver the oil, he kept the USA from exporting LNG for 7 out of 8 years - but he worked really, really hard to make sure Iran pumped as much oil as possible ( so much for global warming) - makes one wonder whose side he was on? 
Today: global oil discoveries see remarkable recovery in 2018. This goes back to that discussion some years ago that "we" were going to run out of oil because oil companies had cut back on exploration. I never accepted that premise.
Global discoveries of conventional oil and natural gas are seeing an exciting recovery with discovered resources already surpassing 4.5 billion boe in H1 2018, Rystad Energy analysis shows.
The average monthly discovered volumes YTD are estimated at 826 million boe, up approximately 30% compared to 625 million boe in 2017.
Re-posting, the original post:
Crude oil E&P: we've talked about this before -- folks worried that the oil industry has fallen behind in exploration -- I consider it a meme and a false narrative. I'm not worried, one way or the other.  Unfortunately, this article does not put "$37 billion" into perspective (except for past three years), from Rigzone, majors on pace to approve $37 billion in projects during this calendar year (2018).
... over 30 percent ($12 billion) of these had already been approved during the second quarter.
BP, Eni, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, ExxonMobil, and Chevron  approved over $77 billion worth of greenfield projects from 2015 to the first quarter of 2018.
Of this figure, BP approved the most at $27.6 billion, followed by Eni at $25.4 billion, and Shell at $11.1 billion.
So, $77 billion / 13 quarters = $6 billion quarter (from 2015 to 1Q18, inclusive = 13 quarters). This calendar year, $37 billion / 4 quarters = $9.25 billion / quarter.

Even this arithmetic doesn't do much for clarification or perspective -- but it is what it is.

Another link

Norway’s Equinor and the Canadian province Newfoundland and Labrador have agreed to develop a deepwater oil project off Canada’s eastern coasts that will cost US$5.2 billion, according to the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Dwight Ball.
Equinor Canada is the operator of the Bay du Nord oil discovery, made in 2013 and estimated to hold more than 300 million barrels of light, high-quality crude oil.
The province of Newfoundland and Labrador is now buying a 10-percent equity stake in the Bay du Nord oil project, which is expected to be sanctioned in 2020 and aims for first oil in 2025.
Bay du Nord is the first remote, deepwater project in the province’s offshore. It is located 500 kilometers (311 miles) from shore at a depth of around 1,200 meters (3,937 feet). The Bay du Nord project opens a new basin—the Flemish Pass—and is the first project to be negotiated under Newfoundland and Labrador’s generic oil royalty regulations.
The good news: no pipeline through Burnaby will be needed.

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