Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Who Will Blink First? -- January 26, 2016

Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:
With oil trading near $30 a barrel, calls for orchestrated output cuts to quell global oversupply have intensified this week. Trouble is, none of the world’s largest producers, most notably Russia and Saudi Arabia, have shown they’re ready to make a move.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri called on all countries, both inside and outside the group, to join efforts to revive oil prices. "It should be viewed as something OPEC and non-OPEC tackle together," he said on Monday.

Iraq’s oil minister said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest exporters, might be ready to become “more flexible.”

Yet there’s little sign the countries themselves are ready to reach an agreement despite the economic damage wrought by the lowest prices since 2003. Long-standing obstacles remain -- Saudi Arabia’s desire to defend market share, Russia’s inability to cut production in winter months -- and analysts say talk of a deal probably reflects the hope of producers in pain rather than the expectation of concrete action.

The two countries’ opposing views on Syria, where Russia is President Bashar Al-Assad’s closest ally and Saudi Arabia wants him gone, present another significant diplomatic obstacle.

"It will not happen -- everybody is winking, hinting," said Kamel al-Harami, an independent oil analyst and former executive of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. "The Saudis won’t do it without the Russians. Unless Russia accepts to cut, I don’t see it happening.”
Regardless of how this plays out, it appears that we've seen global crude oil crest. From here on out, global production will start to recede. Fundamentals alone will bring supply / demand into balance by the middle of next year, 2017. Between now and then Iran isn't going to increase production all that much. There will be a lot of talk but oil companies don't have the cash or desire to spend whatever cash they have by actively drilling in Iran. They will start negotiating with Iran, but new production, unlikely. US production will continue to decline, albeit slowly. So it really comes down to Russia and Saudi Arabia, doesn't it? There's not much reason for "OPEC" to convene an emergency meeting; for all intents and purposes, "OPEC" is Saudi Arabia. Looking at the graph at this post, my hunch is both countries, Russia and KSA, agree to cut production by one million bopd. Saudi Arabia will save "face" by convening an OPEC meeting, to make it look like it was a committee decision, and not a unilateral capitulation. Timing? Before Memorial Day, 2016. 

The North Dakota Bakken: Recession Or Depression? -- January 26, 2016

See story at Bakken.com. Archived.

This will be an important test to see how local and state governments "manage" this.

****************************
GOP Debate Thursday -- One Less On Stage

I've always said there are way too many on the GOP stage.  One less this Thursday.

Yellow River, Christie
(No, this in not SecState John Kerry when returned from Vietnam.)

Random Update Of Last 100 Permits In Calendar Year 2014 -- January 26, 2016

Disclaimer: this was done quickly; it was not triple checked. There will be factual and typographical errors.

Date
File Number
Operator
County
Field
Status/IP
Name
18-Dec-14
30268
HRC
Dunn
Eagle Nest
954
Fort Berthold 148-94-17D-8-12H
18-Dec-14
30269
HRC
Dunn
Eagle Nest
1716
Fort Berthold 148-94-17D-8-13H
18-Dec-14
30270
SM Energy
McKenzie
Poe
SI/NC
Stenehjem 14X-9HA
18-Dec-14
30271
SM Energy
McKenzie
Poe
SI/NC
Stenehjem 14-9H
18-Dec-14
30272
SM Energy
McKenzie
Poe
SI/NC
Stenehjem 14X-9HB
18-Dec-14
30273
Whiting
Dunn
Twin Buttes
1642
Charging Eagle 10-14-11-3H
18-Dec-14
30274
MRO
Dunn
Bailey
1813
Klee 11-3TFH
18-Dec-14
30275
CLR
Williams
Burg
367
Elias 1-21H
18-Dec-14
30276
Hess
Williams
Ray
558
GO-Perdue-157-97-0112H-5
19-Dec-14
30277
WPX
Dunn
Mandaree
conf
Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ
19-Dec-14
30278
WPX
Dunn
Mandaree
conf
Joseph Eagle 19-18HD
19-Dec-14
30279
OXY USA
Dunn
Cabernet
loc
Kenneth Stroh 6-12-1H-143-97L
19-Dec-14
30280
BR
McKenzie
North Fork
conf
Merton 21-15TFH
19-Dec-14
30281
BR
McKenzie
North Fork
conf
Merton 21-15MBH
19-Dec-14
30282
BR
McKenzie
North Fork 
conf
Jerome 21-15MBH
19-Dec-14
30283
Newfield
McKenzie
South Tobacco Garden
conf
Orvis State 150-99-21-16-4H
19-Dec-14
30284
Newfield
McKenzie
South Tobacco Garden 
conf
Orvis State 150-99-21-16-3H
19-Dec-14
30285
XTO
McKenzie
Siverston
drl
Stenehjem 31X-28D
22-Dec-14
30286
EOG
McKenzie
Antelope
1974
Riverview 102-32H
22-Dec-14
30287
QEP
McKenzie
Spotted Horn
951
Dailey 6-12-13BH
22-Dec-14
30288
QEP
McKenzie
Spotted Horn
2067
Dailey 4-12-13T2H
22-Dec-14
30289
QEP
McKenzie
Spotted Horn
2197
Dailey 7-12-13BH
22-Dec-14
30290
QEP
McKenzie
Spotted Horn
1888
Dailey 4-12-13TH
22-Dec-14
30291
QEP
McKenzie
Blue Buttes
2463
Dailey 12-11LL
22-Dec-14
30292
Whiting
Mountrail
Sanish
884
Arvo 12-33TFH
22-Dec-14
30293
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
SI/NC
Fertile 7900905H
22-Dec-14
30294
Hunt
Mountrail
Ross
conf
Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-23H-2
22-Dec-14
30295
Hunt
Mountrail
Ross
conf
Palmermo MCNIC 156-90-22-23H-3
22-Dec-14
30296
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
conf
Fertile 63-1004H
22-Dec-14
30297
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-5
22-Dec-14
30298
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-6
22-Dec-14
30299
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-7
22-Dec-14
30300
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-8
22-Dec-14
30301
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9
22-Dec-14
30302
Slawson
Mountrail
Big Bend
PNC
Moleback 7-20-21TFH
22-Dec-14
30303
Slawson
Mountrail
Big Bend
PNC
Moleback 6-20-21TFH
22-Dec-14
30304
Slawson
Mountrail
Big Bend
PNC
Moleback 9-20-21TF2H
22-Dec-14
30305
Slawson
Mountrail
Big Bend
PNC
Moleback 10-20-21TF2H
23-Dec-14
30306
Statoil
Williams
Painted Woods
conf
Olson 10-15 3H
23-Dec-14
30307
Statoil
Williams
Painted Woods
conf
Olson 10-15 2TFH
23-Dec-14
30308
CLR
Mountrail
Sanish
PNC
Margaurite Federal 6-15H2
23-Dec-14
30309
CRL
Mountrail
Sanish
PNC
Margaurite Federal 7-15H
23-Dec-14
30310
CLR
Mountrail
Sanish
PNC
Margaurite Federal 8-15H1
23-Dec-14
30311
CLR
Mountrail
Sanish
PNC
Margaurite Federal 9-15H
23-Dec-14
30312
Murex
Mountrail
Sanish
conf
Sophia Drake 25-36H
23-Dec-14
30313
Whiting
McKenzie
Bully
1214
Stenehjem 41-3-3H
23-Dec-14
30314
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
SI/NC
Fertile 800905H
23-Dec-14
30315
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10
23-Dec-14
30316
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-11
23-Dec-14
30317
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyracuch C-154-92-2932H-12
23-Dec-14
30318
Hess
Mountrail
Robinson Lake
conf
EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-3932H-13
23-Dec-14
30319
Slawson
Mountrail
Big Bend
947
Peacemaker Federal 1 SLH
23-Dec-14
30320
Triangle
McKenzie
Buffalo Wallow
SI/NC
Anderson 148-100-7-6-4H
23-Dec-14
30321
Whiting
McKenzie
Bully
1267
Sondrol 11-3-3H
23-Dec-14
30322
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
conf
Parshall 435-1113H
23-Dec-14
30323
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
loc
Parshall 436-1113H
23-Dec-14
30324
OXY USA
Dunn
Fayette
loc
Raphael Stroh 5-13-24H-143-97L
24-Dec-14
30325
BR
McKenzie
Sand Creek
conf
Sun Notch 41-32TFH
24-Dec-14
30326
BR
McKenzie
Sand Creek
conf
Old Hickory 41-32TFH
26-Dec-14
30327
SM Energy
Divide
West Ambrose
SI/NC
Colleen 4-14HS
26-Dec-14
30328
SM Energy
Divide
West Ambrose
SI/NC
Nancy 4-14HN
26-Dec-14
30329
SM Energy
Divide
West Ambrose
SI/NC
Maria 4B-14HN
26-Dec-14
30330
SM Energy
Divide
West Ambrose
SI/NC
Beth 4B-14HS
26-Dec-14
30331
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
conf
Parshall 434-1113H
26-Dec-14
30332
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
conf
Parshall 432-1113H
26-Dec-14
30333
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
loc
Parshall 94-32H
26-Dec-14
30334
EOG
Mountrail
Parshall
loc
Parshall 95-3230H
29-Dec-14
30335
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Hendrickson Federal 3-36H2
29-Dec-14
30336
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Hendrickson Federal 4-36H
29-Dec-14
30337
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Hendrickson Federal 5-36H1
29-Dec-14
30338
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Hendrickson Federal 6-36H
29-Dec-14
30339
XTO
McKenzie
Siverston
1147
Lundin 14X-33F
29-Dec-14
30340
XTO
McKenzie
Siverston
1677
Lundin 14X-33EXF
29-Dec-14
30341
XTO
McKenzie
Siverston
1742
Lundin 14X-33A
29-Dec-14
30342
Whiting
Stark
Bell
1536
Obrigewitch 41-29PHU
29-Dec-14
30343
Whiting
Stark
Bell
985
Obrigewitch 44-20PHU
29-Dec-14
30344
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Holstein Federal 12-25H
29-Dec-14
30345
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Holstein Federal 11-25H2
29-Dec-14
30346
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Holstein Federal 10-25H
29-Dec-14
30347
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Holstein Federal 9-25H1
29-Dec-14
30348
CLR
McKenzie
Elm Tree
drl
Holstein Federal 8-25H
30-Dec-14
30349
Samson Resources
Divide
Ambrose
529
Ranchero 1819-8H
30-Dec-14
30350
Hunt
Divide
Writing Rock
438
Writing Rock 161-101-23-14H-1
30-Dec-14
30351
Hunt
Divide
Writing Rock
389
Writing Rock 161-101-26-35H-1
30-Dec-14
30352
Hunt
Divide
Writing Rock
824
Writing Rock 161-101-25-36H-1
30-Dec-14
30353
Hess
Williams
Beaver Lodge
820
BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-2
30-Dec-14
30354
Hess
Williams
Beaver Lodge
836
BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-3
30-Dec-14
30355
Hess
Williams
Beaver Lodge
536
BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-4
30-Dec-14
30356
Hess
Williams
Beaver Lodge
819
BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-5
30-Dec-14
30357
Enduro
Renville
Mouse River Park
conf
MRPSU 19-33-H2
30-Dec-14
30358
Enduro
Renville
Mouse River Park
85
MRPSU 19-33-H1
30-Dec-14
30359
CLR
Williams
Dollar Joe
loc
Salem 6-6H1
30-Dec-14
30360
CLR
Williams
Dollar Joe
loc
Salem 7-6H
31-Dec-14
30361
CLR
McKenzie
Camp
1239
Patterson Federal 6-13H
31-Dec-14
30362
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
State Weydahl 5-36H1
31-Dec-14
30363
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
State Weydahl 6-36H
31-Dec-14
30364
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
State Weydahl 7-36H2
31-Dec-14
30365
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
Brandvik 5-25H1
31-Dec-14
30366
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
Brandvik 6-25H
31-Dec-14
30367
CLR
Dunn
Corral Creek
SI/NC
Brandvik 7-25H2
31-Dec-14
30368
Petro-Hunt
McKenzie
Charlson
SI/NC
Thompson 153-95-8D-6-2H
31-Dec-14
30369
Petro-Hunt
McKenzie
Charlson
SI/NC
Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H