CLR Press Release With 2016 CAPEX And Production Guidance -- January 26, 2016

From a CLR press release:

CLR today announced a budget of $920 million in non-acquisition capital expenditures for 2016, a 66% reduction from 2015's $2.7 billion budget. The Company expects average production of approximately 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe) per day for 2016.

The Company currently estimates 2015 actual non-acquisition capital expenditures were approximately $2.5 billion , or approximately $200 million under budget for 2015.

Continental expects average production for 2015 to be approximately 221,700 Boe per day, above previously revised guidance. The Company expects to report year-end 2015 total long term debt that is essentially flat with long-term debt at September 30, 2015, up only $7 million quarter over quarter. Continental plans to report full-year 2015 results on February 24, 2016  after the close of market trading.

Looking to the current year, the Company expects first quarter 2016 production will be in a range of 210,000 and 220,000 Boe per day and expects to exit 2016 with fourth quarter production between 180,000 and 190,000 Boe per day, reflecting reduced drilling and a lower level of well completion activity. The Company's 2016 production mix is expected to average 60% crude oil and 40% natural gas. Full 2016 guidance is available at the conclusion of this press release.

Non-acquisition capital spending is expected to be approximately $300 million in first quarter 2016, down from an estimated $395 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. By fourth quarter 2016, capital expenditures are expected to decline to approximately $200 million.

The Company estimates its 2016 capital expenditures budget will be cash flow neutral at an average WTI price of $37 per barrel for the full year. At an average WTI price of $40, the Company estimates 2016 results would be cash flow positive in excess of $100 million.

I may be mis-reading something or comparing apples to oranges, but in the press release above, it says CLR announced a CAPEX budget of just under $1 billion. If I read the Oasis presentation correctly, Oasis announced a similar CAPEX budget for 2106: the analyst suggested that Oasis CAPEX presumed a total spending of slightly less than $1 billion in 2016. That presentation suggested guidance of 50,000 boepd in 2016; compare with CLR's estimate of around 220,000 boepd.

By play:

The Company expects to spend 35% of its 2016 capital expenditures in the North Dakota Bakken and 28% in the SCOOP play in Oklahoma.

Continental's 2016 capital expenditures budget anticipates an average of 19 operated drilling rigs for the year, with four in the North Dakota Bakken, five to six in SCOOP, five in Northwest Cana JDA, and four to five in STACK. Continental recently decreased its operated rig count from 23 to 19 by dropping four rigs in Bakken, and therefore the current deployment of operated rigs is in line with the expected averages for the 2016 budget.

In terms of wells, the Company expects to complete 71 net operated and non-operated wells in 2016, with 26 in Bakken, 25 in SCOOP, 11 in Northwest Cana JDA and nine in STACK.

Continental plans to defer completing most Bakken wells in 2016, which will increase the drilled but uncompleted ("DUC") inventory from 135 gross DUCs at year-end 2015 to 195 gross DUCs at year-end 2016. This is a high-graded inventory of DUCs, with an average estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well of 850,000 Boe.

In Oklahoma, Continental plans to deploy an average of 2.5 completion crews in 2016. The Company ended 2015 with approximately 35 gross DUCs in Oklahoma, and expects to end 2016 with approximately 50 gross DUCs, with an average EUR per well of 1.8 million Boe.