Monday, July 23, 2018

What Don't You Want? -- July 23, 2018

Folks following this story might read between the lines: Oasis, having sold some of its non-core assets in North Dakota to raise cash to buy very expensive acreage in the Permian now says "Bakken is still the company's focus."

It will be interesting for the next twelve months or so to see how the Permian plays out for Oasis, what with the takeaway issues; high cost of completions; and, lack of infrastructure.

From The Williston Herald
Earlier this year, Oasis sold some of its Williston acreage and bought a $946 million position in the Permian’s Delaware Basin.
That works out to a pricey $46,600 per acre, and, at the time, was the most expensive entry yet to the Permian on a per-acre basis, according to analysts. One question that company’s officials heard a lot since acquiring that costly acreage is: What does it mean for the Bakken?
Vice President of Operations for Oasis Petroleum, Jason Swaren, had an answer for that question during the Bakken Conference and Oil Expo.
“Ninety-five percent of our total hydrocarbon production comes from Bakken assets, and only 5 percent comes from the Permian,” he said. “From our company perspective, I cannot stress enough how important the Bakken is to our company.”
At upwards of $50K/acre in the Permian, I would think investors might want to know what they are getting for their money. A billion dollars and only 5% of their production comes from the Permian. Wow. A billion dollars would go a long way in the Bakken these days.

WTI-Permian spread has been as much as a $15 deficit for Permian oil, while Bakken has been commanding a slight premium.

Well, time will tell.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

What Don't You Want, Come Hell or High Water

On a more pleasant note, this is interesting. Oasis saw a potential conflict next year with development of the new Williston airport impacting development of an "Oasis" oil field in the same area. So, Oasis, on its own and shouldering the cost of building the road, procured a right of way that would allow folks to access the new airport without being impacted by oil activity. From The Williston Herald:
A new development that [airport director Anthony] Dudas was excited about is construction of a new access road to the airport, which began Tuesday. The project is not part of the XWA construction itself, and was spearheaded by Oasis Petroleum as a means to allow residents to avoid the development the company will be doing in the area within the next two years.
According to Dudas, Oasis procured the right of way and are constructing the road at their own cost, with the city stepping in to cover the cost of laying gravel and paving the road.
"It's really a great public/private partnership," he said. "and a cost savings to the city. It's really a positive safety outcome as far as improving the road to get out here."
See this post to see where airport will be located.

This graphic suggests where Oasis is likely to be developing wells near the airport over the next couple of years, and where the new access road is likely to be:

Just Posted -- Legacy Fund Deposits For July, 2018

Link here.

July, 2018: $62,538,185.90.

Memo to self: note to Art Berman and Jane Nielson, the oil companies paid the state of North Dakota over $62 million for the month of July.

$62 million.

And 90 cents.

Heat Wave In Texas, California -- July 23, 2018

If Texas hit 73,000 MW, it would be a new record. So, how did Texas do today?

Yup, set a new record and no hysteria about the grid failing. Just good ol' American "know-how" and a "can-do" attitude. Whoo-hoo!

California, meanwhile, sending out the alarm, "not enough electricity! Save energy! The sky is falling!" And was the sky falling? You be the judge:

From what I can tell, Texas set a new "demand" record and didn't miss a beat. California didn't even come close to setting a record.

Lawrence of Arabia -- The DVD

I have just watched the desert scene in which the camels start dying after 20 days without water.

Sort of puts things into perspective.

104 degrees in Texas, and I don't need air conditioning. Ceiling fans, keeping windows draped, having a ground floor apartment, swimming during hottest part of the day, etc., etc, one can survive without air conditioning. Not particularly pleasant, but not particularly difficult.

I forget now, which summer it was, but about three years ago, I went the entire south Texas summer (we lived in San Antonio then where it is even hotter than the DFW area) with no air conditioning just to prove it could be done.

By the way, I'm seeing things in "Lawrence of Arabia" I had not "caught" before and this must be the tenth time I've watched it.

Cool Water, Hank Williams

From nine of the worst power outages in US history:
#7. Southwest Blackout of (2011)  -- human error
This blackout is considered to be the largest in California?s history.
It occurred mainly because of the state’s dependence on power imports from Arizona at the time.
At the end of their summer season that year, the continued hot weather caused California’s engineering schedule to conflict with planned outages (for maintenance).
This then left the grid vulnerable to human error.
A technician switched major equipment, which caused the power to fail for around 12 hours and affect 2.7 million Americans.
The impact to restaurants and grocery stores was devastating. Due to the length of time the power was out they were forced to throw away food at an estimated cost of $12 to $18 million. Several sewage pumping stations also failed, causing the potential for unsafe water in many areas.
Since this time, diesel generators were installed at 5 pumping stations.
Had Hillary and Elon been in charge, the solution would have been windmills and batteries. 

Ten New Permits; XTO Has Permits For A 6-Well Zane Federal Pad In Siverston Oil Field -- July 23, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66583270194

Ten new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6); Whiting (4)
  • Fields: Siverston (McKenzie); East Fork (Williams)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Zane Federal permit on lot 3, section 6-149-97; Whiting has permits for a 3-well Jackman pad in SWSE 11-156-100; its fourth permit was for a Tarpon Federal well in SWSE 20-153-96; Tarpon Federal wells are tracked here;
One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:
  • 34193, n/d, CLR, Radermecher 11-22H2, Camel Butte, 4 sections, reported as A, but no further data; FracFocus, API - 33-053-08251, has no data to suggest this well was fracked; it looks like a DUC, it quacks like a DUC, it waddles like a DUC;
Operator transfer:

Why I Love To Blog -- Helps Me To Put Things Into Perspective -- July 23, 2018

Pardon the interruption: I was watching President Trump on CNBC. They cut away after 60 seconds. I had to go to Fox News to get the full speech. Amazing.

Now, where was I -- oh, here it is -- 

According to this tweet, Exxon could be producing 750,000 bopd from Guyana by 2025. Is 750,000 bopd a lot? Ten years ago I would not have been able to say one way or another; I certainly would not have been able to put it into perspective.

Right now, North Dakota is producing about 1.2 million bopd. XTO, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Exxon is producing 2.4 million bbls/month or about 80,000 bopd, assuming I did the math correctly.

Disclaimer: I often simple arithmetic errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Apparently, currently Exxon produces about 5.3 million bopd. One million bopd from Guyana represents about 20% of Exxon's total production. Wow.

Iran Imploding

Trudeau's Immigration Policy Advil Headache -- July 23, 2018

I never know when to simply "update" earlier posts, or start a new post on a subject already being discussed. Whatever.

Bloomberg is reporting that Trudeau's immigration policy is giving him one huge Advil headache. I decided to give this a stand-alone post because I was frustrated that Bloomberg talked about the "ditch," but failed to provide a map of the "ditch's" location. From the linked article:
The issue is most prominent in Quebec, where it’s been percolating for 18 months. A makeshift processing center has even been built in the French-speaking province, at a border crossing that had been little more than a dirt path through a ditch.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police arrested waves of people as they exited taxis, dragged out luggage and crossed over from New York state. Last August, more than 5,700 people were arrested crossing illegally into Canada -- nearly all in Quebec, where at one point Montreal’s Olympic Stadium was commandeered to help handle the influx.
But this year, the arrest average has been about 1,800 per month nationwide. The province has nonetheless asked Ottawa to speed up processing times for asylum claims and warned it won’t ensure housing to an unlimited number of migrants.
What frustrates me more is that Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez have not yet appeared at the "ditch" for a photo op (at least that I am aware). Surely this is must be a manifestation of a Trump immigration policy failure. Maybe they're waiting for the dead of winter when it's really, really harsh on infants being forced to crawl across the border.

Previous posts:
Canadian Defense Dollars Spent On Refugees From USA
August 9, 2017

Meager as their defense budget may be (previously posted), Canada will use soldiers, not for security, but for reception, housing, processing of Haitian refugees streaming across the US border.

Of course, this will only encourage the stream.


A Deer Caught In The Headlights

Too many asylum seekers -- illegal immigrants -- and not enough pipeline. What next?

Lake Champlain

The map above reminded me of a great book on the US Revolutionary War:

Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution
Nathaniel Philbrick
c. 2016
DDS: 973.4 PHI
I wish I had the book in my personal library but I simply have no more shelf space. Back to the library.

Chapter 1: link here.

Chapter 7
Chapter 6
Chapter 5
Chapter 4
Chapter 3
Chapter 2
The origin of the submarine.
Chapter 1
First mention: nothing transcribed

Chapter 8: link here.

Chapter 9: link here.

Chapter 10: link here.

Chapter 11: link here.

Chapter 12: link here.

Chapter 13: link here.

Epilogue: link here.

The Next Big Thing -- Making Money / Losing Money On EV Batteries -- July 23, 2018

Winners: entrepreneurs; agile retailers; Waste Management; shysters/scam artists
Losers: automobile manufacturers; early adopters; EV owners

These were the data points from the first link that caught my attention:
  • over time, EVs will need to be re-charged more often
  • over time, EV's mileage range on a charge will decrease
  • the average EV family car will need battery change at 10 years
  • EV taxis and buses will need to be change at four years
Replacing batteries in EVs is not a trivial issue, both in time and cost.

Idle Chatter Regarding MRO Re-Fracks In Bailey Oil Field -- July 23, 2018

I have looked at a lot of MRO wells in the Bailey oil field. It is clear the MRO has an active re-frack program in that field (I think the company may have even mentioned that a long time ago -- I've long forgotten). Be that as it may, I have a tag -- MRO re-fracks. I assume I've missed tagging a lot of re-fracks that I have posted, not to even mention all the re-fracks I have completely missed. I have spent most of my time looking at 16xxxx permits when it comes to MRO re-fracks; I don't recall how many 17xxx permits I have looked at.

I feel pretty comfortable suggesting that "every" 16xxx MRO permit/well is a candidate for re-fracking. I'm about ready to quit looking for new 16xxx MRO re-fracks and am curious about:
  • 17xxx MRO re-fracks; and,
  • 16xxx MRO re-fracks of re-fracks (that may be another four or five years before we see that, but the Bakken moves fast and there's a lot of innovation / experimentation; I think folks are curious what re-fracks of a re-frack might look like (I'm talking about medium or full re-fracks, not re-works or "mini-re-fracks."
Disclaimer: in a long list like this there are bound to be typographical and factual errors. In addition, the list is dynamic and will be changed almost daily. If the numbers don't add up, it simply means I made an error.

MRO oil and gas permits in Bailey oilfield:
  • total: 190
    • A: 137
    • Conf: 13
    • IA: 21
    • NC (DUCs):  9
    • PNC: 7
    • TA:  3
  • 15xxx: 1
  • 16xxx: 40
  • 17xxx: 22
  • 18xxx: 14
  • 19xxx: 4
  • 20xxx: 6
  • 21xxx: 6
  • 22xxx: 12
  • 23xxx: 3
  • 24xxx: 8
  • 25xxx: 6
  • 26xxx: 0
  • 27xxx; 0
  • 28xxx: 16
  • 29xxx: 12
  • 30xxx: 5
  • 31xxx: 0
  • 32xxx: 0
  • 33xxx: 24
  • 34xxx: 9

Papirosi And Paparazzi -- July 23, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

As noted earlier, my "consequential" book for this week: The Victorians, A. N. Wilson, c. 2003. The heft and feel of the book is awesome. I love the feel of the paper, and love the pitch and font. This should be a fun book; it is a continuation of my "China phase."

I've now read the first three chapters, and have skimmed through most of the rest of the book. It is not an easy read for me. It probably is not an easy read for the average American. It is extremely heavy on politics everywhere, and statistics in places. I don't care for politics in general, and I definitely don't care for British politics. But in defense, the author has it exactly correct -- one cannot discuss/analyze/report any "modern" human "activity" without understanding the politics. But the book is quite unreadable for the most part -- unless one is really, really concentrating.

But, wow, where it is readable, it is incredible. This is the kind of book I would like on my book shelf if I had book shelf room for any more books. This is an incredibly good reference book.

I am quite perplexed why the author completely avoided any mention of the opium wars. Hong Kong is mentioned once, p. 124, in passing.
An extraordinary expansion of British imperialism had marked the first decade of Victoria's reign. Hong Kong in the Far East -- 1843, Labuan in Indonesia -- 1846, Natal -- 1843, Orange River in South Africa -- 1848, Gambia on the West Coast of Africa -- 1843. In 1842 the British fought the first of their disastrous Afghan wars, temporarily annexing that unconquerable country. Even the Russians in the twentieth century, or the Americans in the twenty-first, did not experience quite so cruelly the brutal indomitability of the Afghan guerrilla. 
Then this, page 197: two things to emerge from the Crimean War, completely unpredictable -- the importance of photography, and a change in the Western world's smoking habits.

Data points from the Crimean War and smoking as told by A. N. Wilson:
  • Robert Peacock Gloag, a Scotsman, was in the Crimean during this period; Wilson does not know why
  • while he was there, Gloag saw Turks and Russians smoking cigarettes; "in them he found an idea and an ideal. From the war a purposeful man emerged." -- 
  • the first Gloag cigarettes on sale in London were cylinders of straw-coloured paper into which a cane tip was inserted and the tobacco filled in through a funnel
  • the Russians called these little scorchers, papirosi (reminds me of paparazzi, also little scorchers)  
  • then a list of early cigarette-makers that followed
    • "Moscows" -- had a piece of wool in the end to act as a filter
    • "Tom Thumbs" -- penny lines to be smoked to the bitter end
    • "Don Alfonso" -- bundles of 25 for 1 shilling
    • "the Whiff" -- introduced in 1871; the profits paid for the church of St Stephen, Peckham
  • Gloag had introduced a narcotic that was so addictive that social attitudes were forced to change in order to accommodate the cigarette compulsion
  • previously, smoking was considered a "low" activity; greatly restricted where folks could smoke
  • by 1860, smoking was allowed in railway carriages
  • the real smoking revolution happened in the generation after Gloag's when the Bristol tobacco firm of W.D. and H.O. Wills pioneered the first Bonsack cigarette-making machine
    • the Bonsack cigarette-making machine was bought from America in 1883, the invention of James A. Bonsack of Salem, VA
    • the Bonsack: could manufacture 200 cigarettes per minute
  • between 1860 and 1900, consumption of cigarettes grew about 5% per annum
  • the firms that followed Willis:
    • Lambert and Butler (London)
    • John Player and Sons (Nottingham)
    • Hignett Bros and Cope Bros (those are two firms, Liverpool)
  • the Liverpool firms competed for the franchise to display and sell cheap cigarettes in the Railway Refreshment Rooms
  • 1880s: a price war let to the "penny cigarettes
  • Wild Woodbine, 1888, founded: became the most famous cheap smoke in the Western world, forever associated with the men fighting in the trenches 25 years later
  • smoking soared
  • the working classed were hooked; the true opium of the people
  • Gloag's legacy of the cigarette habit could be said to be the most lasting and notable consequence of the Crimean War
  • and then this, a typical A. N. Wilson observation:
    • When the Turkish, Russian and British empires are now as obsolete as the Bonapartist dynasty, the British working class, 146 years after the treaty of Paris, are still addicts of what Gloag brought home -- though in other classes the custom, like its adherents, is dying.
Maybe later, time to talk about photography and the Crimean War.

Notes to the Granddaughters

In 1988, or thereabouts, as the clinic commander of the RAF Mildenhall clinic, I was involved in caring for some Afghan guerillas, casualties of the Soviet-Afghan war. That war lasted nine years, from December, 1979, to February, 1989.

I have a great photograph of some of those injured guerillas. When I saw those "soldiers," I knew there was no way the Russians could win that war. I had the same "feeling" when the US Army and special forces entered Afghanistan.

[Later: I found the photo. Movement of these guerrillas was only to occur after dark but there was an unexpected daylight landing this date en route to the US. Somehow the photos got past the censors.]

Note: indomitability = untameable.

I will add this list to the word list for Arianna.

This Is Not An Investment Site --- July 23, 2018

Blue eyes cryin' in the rain. Tesla shares drop following news that Tesla confirmed that it did indeed ask for money back from supplies, going back as far as 2016, calling it a normal practice in the automotive industry. The big question is whether the US will extend the "200,000 threshold" and/or whether the states of California/Nevada will bailout Tesla?

The other bit question, of course, is how low will TSLA go today? Now trading below $300 (again), TSLA dropped almost 5% in early morning trading. [Later: TSLA has now dropped 5% in early morning trading.]

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Others (making America great again):
  • UNP: up a bit over 1.5%, up $2.37, trading at $143.78
  • CVX: up about 0.5%, up 55 cents, trading at $122.82
  • NOG: up a little over 1%
  • EOG: up about 0.7%; trading at $123.22
Mainstream media: doomsday for Daily News?

Iran. The all-caps tweet from President Trump was meant for those countries who say they will ignore US sanctions on Iran. Oil market: hardly noticed. 

150K BOE In Three Months -- New CLR Well In The Bakken -- July 23, 2018

This well will be reported out later today. Stay tuned.

In North Dakota, the water is inexpensive and plentiful. It looks like Harold Hamm thought about that.

31517, 2,572, CLR, Lansing 6-25H; API - 33-053-07061, huge frack, 20.8 million gallons of water (twice the usual currently used in the Bakken;, but look at this, 94.8% water; 139,577 + 291,342 MCF = 139,577 + 48,549 = 188,126 boe over three months; 56 stages; 9.3 million lbs sand (mesh/large white), t3/18; cum 140K 5/18:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The CLR Lansing wells are tracked here.

Fast And Furious -- July 23, 2018


Later, 5:36 p.m. CDT: it doesn't matter whether the data is correct or not; the question is how an entire industry; and, the millennials fell for his data; I guess the same way they fell for the global warming data -- if you say it enough times, it becomes fact. Public school education.

Original Post
Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend:
  • Monday, July 23, 2018:
    • 33999, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36H, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33998, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36D, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33957, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie3-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
    • 33343, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36B, Bear Den, no production data; Dakota Federal wells are tracked here;
    • 33193, 94 (no typo), Enerplus, Bear Den 150-94-32D-29H, Spotted Horn; producing, nice but not remarkable; t1/18; cum 43K 5/18;
    • 33192, 81 (no typo), Enerplus MHA 150-94-32D-29H-TF, Spotted Horn, producing; very, very nice; t1/18; cum 82K 5/18;
    • 33095, 701, CLR, Monroe 13-2H1, Banks, very, very nice well; the CLR Monroe wells are tracked here; t3/18; cum 78K 5/18;
    • 31956, 1,234, Hess, EN-Vachal-LW-155-93-0523H-9, Alger, t6/18; cum --
  • Sunday, July 22, 2018:
    • 34289, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36HXE, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33342, drl, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36F, Bear Den, no production data,
    • 31957, 1,205, Hess, EN-Vachal-LW-155-93-0532H-1, Alger, t6/18; cum --
  • Saturday, July 21, 2018:
    • 33958, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 4=29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
    • 33055, drl, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36A, Bear Den, no production data,
    • 31517, 2,572, CLR, Lansing 6-25H, Banks, 56 stages; 9.3 million lbs large/mesh; 20 million gallons water, huge well; 50K+ in one month; t3/18; cum 140K 5/18; the Lansing wells are tracked here;

Fast and Furious

Fast and furious (we'll get back to these when time permits)

Back to the Bakken

HAL beats: North American revenue rose 38%; international revenue a paltry rise of 6% -- tells one where the activity is, doesn't it?

Active rigs:

Active Rigs67583270194

RBN Energy: Permian producers' options when severe gas takeaway constraints arise.
Permian producers continue to walk a tightrope, almost perfectly balanced between still-rising production of natural gas and the availability of gas pipeline takeaway capacity to transport that gas to market. Don’t get us wrong. There are gas takeaway constraints out of the Permian, as evidenced by a Waha cash basis that averaged more than 50 cents/MMBtu last week. But a combination of factors — including increased flows to Mexico and a couple of small, under-the-radar expansions of existing takeaway pipes — has prevented the Waha basis from tumbling to $1 or even $2/MMBtu. But that big fall may still happen — in fact, you could say that odds are that severe takeaway constraints and differential blowouts will occur within the next few months. If and when that happens, what can producers do to quickly regain their balance? Today, we discuss recent developments in Permian gas markets and the options that producers, gas processors and midstream companies may need to consider if things get really tight.
Philippe Petit, the French high-wire artist who in 1974 famously walked (eight times!) between the twin, 110-story towers of the original World Trade Center in New York City, once said, “When I see three oranges, I juggle; when I see two towers, I walk.” Well, when oil and gas producers see a hydrocarbon resource as gargantuan and as promising as the Permian, they jump in with both feet, even if it requires multibillion-dollar investments in infrastructure and poses the risk of huge, profit-squeezing price spreads if production growth outpaces the ability of pipelines to transport crude oil and natural gas to end-users.
Notes for the Granddaughters

Whenever we go back to San Pedro, California (along the coast, south of Los Angeles, along the LA Harbor), we always enjoy the drives along the coast.

There's a particularly steep hill in San Pedro, but I had never given much thought to it. It's "28th Street" -- just a mile or so down the road from where May's parents' home is. I avoid it whenever possible. I can't imagine learning to drive an Alfa Romeo with manual transmission on that incline. LOL.

Last night while watching an old Humphrey Bogart - Lauren Bacall - David Goodis movie I was reminded of the steep hills in San Francisco. I was curious. Just how steep are those hills. From wiki:
Filbert Street and 22nd Street in San Francisco have a maximum gradient of 31.5% (17.5°).]
The steepest hill on Filbert is the east half of the block between Hyde and Leavenworth; like 22nd St it is one-way down.
The city map shows a descent of 65 feet, which based on a half-block being 206.25 horizontal feet makes the grade 31.5%, the official figure.
The sidewalk-only section of Broderick Street (between Broadway and Vallejo, where the city map shows a climb of 96 feet in the 275-foot block) is steeper, just under 35% grade, and a block west the sidewalk-only block of Baker Street is a bit steeper than that.
An unofficial survey of San Francisco streets declared the steepest street in San Francisco to be a 30-foot section of Bradford Street, paved in 2010, with a 40% grade. The curvy Lombard Street started as a 27% grade.
Now this:
Three streets in Los Angeles are steeper—28th Street in San Pedro at 33.3%, Eldred Street in Highland Park at 33%, and Baxter Street in Silver Lake at 32%.
That 28th Street down the road from May's parents' home -- steepest of the steep. Amazing where following the dots leads one. LOL.