Friday, September 9, 2016

Iranian Oil Output Stagnates; GDPNow -- 3Q16 At 3.3% In Latest Forecast -- Friday, September 9, 2016

Iran Output Stagnates

From Reuters:
Iran's steep oil output growth has stalled in the past three months suggesting Tehran might be struggling to fulfill its plans to raise production to new highs while demanding to be excluded from any OPEC deals on supply curbs.
Iran's oil output soared to 3.64 million barrels per day in June from an average of 2.84 million bpd in 2015 following the easing of Western sanctions on Tehran in January. 
But since June, output has stagnated and reached just 3.63 million bpd in August.
Unless I missed it, the article does not say why Iranian output stagnated. But it fits my view that there's more to the oil patch than just "saying you're going to do something."


Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — September 9, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on September 9, down from 3.5 percent on September 2.
The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent and from 3.3 percent to 2.0 percent, respectively, on Tuesday after the motor vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.62 percentage points to 0.57 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution
Nathaniel Philbrick
c. 2016
DDS: 973.4 PHI

The waterways along the East Coast played a major role, a subject well suited for Nathaniel Philbrick. A key to understanding the Revolution War -- the war itself -- is the role water played for moving troops quickly.

In this book, Philbrick will cover the two "fronts" in the Revolutionary War: the shooting war between George Washington's troops and William Howe's troops; and, the non-shooting civil war among squabbling colonists

Chapter 1:
  • spring of 1776
  • March, 1776: British abandon Boston, after a 9-month seige
  • May, 1776: Continental Congress commissions Charles Willson Peale to paint Geo Washington's portrait
  • June, 1776: George Washington has established his army's headquarters in NYC
  • August 5, 1775: British General Clinton joins them; he had recently been defeated at Charleston, SC
  • important landmarks
  • New York City and New Jersey
  • Sandy Hook: barrier beach; last landing before ships sail north, through "the Narrows"
  • the Narrows: a chokepoint -- between Brooklyn (western end of Long Island) and Staten Island that ships must sail through to reach Port of New York, south Manhattan; the Narrows opens up into the Upper Bay
  • Upper Bay: northern opening just north of the Narrows; Ellis Island; Governor's Island
  • Ellis Island, smaller of the two, to the west; Governor's Island, larger of the two, to the east
  • Hudson River, up the west side of Manhattan
  • East River, up the east side of Manhattan
  • recent history:
    • three months earlier (in March) British General William Howe had abandoned Boston with 9,000 soldiers; George Washington had set up cannon on Dorchester Heights overnight, March 4, 1776; General William Howe evacuates to Halifax, Nova Scotia; again, using the sea (waterways) -- provided quick movement whereas land impeded movement; re-armed in Nova Scotia; heads back to NY
    • brothers Richard and William had an older brother George who had been killed in the French and Indian War; had "soft spot" in their hearts for the colonists; hoped war could be avoided; declaration of independence, 1776, had ended all hopes of a peaceful resolution
  • contemporary events:
  • June 27, 1776: British Navy seen on open sea, arriving
  • middle of August, 1776: 400 vessels; 45,000 soldiers and sailors
  • William Howe, Army general; when British military returns from Nova Scotia to attack NY, the British Navy is under command of William's older brother: Admiral Richard Howe; another British Army General on those ships, General Henry Clinton; so two British Army generals, staging at Sandy Hook before moving through the Narrows to New York harbor: General William Howe and General Henry Clinton
  • late August, 1776: British unload 15,000 soldiers at Gravesend Bay, far south Brooklyn; far west Long Island
  • Washington appoints General Israel Putnam of Connecticut to take charge of troops in Brooklyn
  • American defense at Wallabout Bay; three easily defended passes
  • British attack; American General William Alexander, Scottish, defends
  • but the Brits took a fourth pass: Jamaica Pass -- far to the east -- that the colonists had forgotten about; huge lapse in judgement
  • the evacuation from Brooklyn, across the East River (overnight, August 29 - 30, 1776)
  • the Brits are in command of Brooklyn; will eventually take Fort Putnam and secure the island
  • Geo Washington had no option: evacuate, but make it look like he was going to replenish his troops
  • huge, huge story: evacuation began where base of Brooklyn Bridge now is

  • the reason NYC strategically important

      • Brits in St Johns (present day, Quebec), planning an assault on Fort Ticonderoga on Lake Champlain
      • Hudson River to Albany and then to For Ticonderoga
      • if Brits control New Jersey "sea" up the Hudson all the way to Lake Champlain, the Brits have cut "America" in half
    • Washington evacuates NYC
    • controls the Hudson 14 miles north of NYC from Harlem Heights 
    • Admiral Howe moves north of Brooklyn, to Queens County, still on Long Island
    • Chapter 1 ends with the Brits taking NYC; Geo Washington severely beat; and retreating across New Jersey to the Delaware River

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