CHINA-US trade:
- China desperately needs US ethane (plastics);
- US auto manufacturers need rare-earth-based magnets. China blinks. Link here.
Warren Buffett, ask ChatGPT anything -- "Buffett said he was making a huge purchase in the first quarter of 2025 but SEC allowed him to keep it secret; any update?
Reply: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed that the confidential investment made in the first quarter of 2025 was a substantial stake in Chubb Limited (NYSE: CB), a leading global property and casualty insurance company.
Berkshire accumulated approximately 26 million shares, valued at around $6.7 billion, representing a 6.4% ownership in Chubb as of March 2025.
The SEC granted Berkshire confidential treatment for this investment to allow the firm to build its position without influencing the market price.
This approach is consistent with Berkshire’s past practices when acquiring significant stakes in companies like Chevron and Verizon. Chubb’s stock experienced a notable increase following the disclosure, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s prospects and the significance of Berkshire’s investment.
Warren Buffett, 1Q25: reported yesterday by MarketWatch. That source did not mention Chubb.
- did not open any new positions (no word on "secret" new position rumored earlier)
- exited, completely, had trimmed in prior quarters:
- Nu Holdings (NU)
- Citigroup (C)
- maintained his massive stakes in:
- CVX
- AAPL
- added to positions:
- Constellation Brands (STZ), "bulked up" -- Corona Beer; opened his position in 4Q24
- Pool (POOL)
- Sirius XM (SIRI)
- Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
- VeriSign (VRSN)
- Heico (HEI)
- OXY (interesting, very interesting)
- remains pessimistic with banks and financial stocks; pared large positions in
- BofA (BAC)
- Capital One (COF)
- other reductions:
- Charter Communications (CHTR)
- DaVita (DVA)
- T-Mobile (TMUS)
- Liberty Media (FWONK)
- Legacy
- AAPL: now makes up 28% of Berkshire's total equity portfolio, up from 6% in 2016
- notably: essentially nothing in tech
- NVDA: 1,500%
- AMD: 120%
- AAPL: 144%
- MSFT: 150%
- INTC: - 50%
- AMZN: 60%
- META: 200%
- SNOW: - 10%
- AVGO: 700%
- BRK-B: 145%
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The Market In Early Trading
It's as if yesterday never happened.
Open:
- Dow Jones: +417 --> +526
- S&P 500: +60 --> +66
- NASDAQ: +230 --> +232
S&P 500: reaches 6,000.
- the all-time high closing value for the S&P 500 was 6,144.15 on February 19, 2025.
AAPL: up $4.29; up over 2%; now trading about $205.17.
AVGO: down $10; down almost 4%; trading at $250.
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Is California Ready To Implode?
Statistics:
Central Valley:
- middle class to upper-income neighborhoods: as many as 40- 50 people living in home zone for "single-family" occupancy; how do they manage? Port-a potties and Winnebagos.
- 20% of the population at or below the poverty level;
- 33% of the population on public assistance live in Califonia;
- 40% of the population are on Medi-Cal;
- 50% of all births are covered by Medi-Cal;
- 27% of the resident population was not born in the US
- huge black market economy: flea markets and restaurants do not collect state sales tax.
When we lived in San Pedro, Los Angeles, California: on all small residential streets with 1500-square-foot single-family units with a small one-car garage, there were as many as four to five cars parked in front of each of these houses, on the street, or double-parked / triple-parked on the driveway / lawn.
Property tax does not come close to paying for public school requirements when two to three families with six young children live in a 1500-square-foot home designed for one family with two children.
Gang members in Compton: have gone to public authorities complaining that cartel gangs from south of the border are creating major problems for US gang members and their extended families.
State income tax: 10% once income reaches $70,000.
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Origin Of Life
Lead author: Sawsan Wehbi, Genetics Graduate Interdisciplinary Program, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.
Amino acids date back four billion years, the last universal common ancestor (LUCA).
Scientists have creaated an evolutionary tree of amino acids, a tree of these protein domains.
Trytophan, designated by the letter "W" was the last of the 20 canonical amino acids to be added to the genetic code, but "W" has now been found to exist pre-LUCA.
Nohting new here: again, suggesting these amino acids emerged around the alkaline hydrothermal vents that are believed to have played a key role in how life began, despite the fact that the resulting life forms did not live there for long.
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Haircut By Sophia
