Sunday, September 22, 2024

Sunday Night Notes -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48365TECH.

Mideast: the question that needs to be asked -- why is Israel moving so fast now? Lebanon, Hezbollah. There will be a story out tomorrow in The WSJ that may shed some answers, but it will require connecting some dots. Just thinking out loud.

Politics, link here

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The Book Page

Geniuses At War: Bletchley Park, Colossus, and the Dawn of the Digital Age, David A. Price, c. 2021.

The Allies were reading German secret messages at will.

Until just after D-Day. Then, without explanation, the Germans made changes to their system. The Allies were working feverishly but unsuccessfully to break in, to solve the problem. The allies were using a "huge" computer dubbed Colossus (Mark) I and Colossus (Mark) II.

From page 154 with editing: 

The Germans had made a number of changes, the most important of which was that they were changing the patterns of all twelve wheels [on their machine} not monthly, as they had in the past, but daily. Wheel patters that worked on messages of one day wouldn't work on those of another day. Translating this knowledge into effective action was another matter. The wheel patterns were distinct from the wheel settings ... the  computational burden of working out the wheel patterns every day, rather than once at the beginning of the month would be enormous. "The problem of solving current traffic seems completely hopeless," wrote the director.

But it wasn't quite completely hopeless. It turns out the [engineers] had designed enough flexibility into the Colossi that they could be programmed for attacking the wheel patterns. Until then, that flexibility had been a theoretical gambit; now their idea would be put into practice. 

Three more Colossu Mark II machines arrived over the next three months (late summer, 1944). The added power more than overcame the daily wheel changes. One month later, cracking coded messages was surpassing the cryptographers' previous records.

And Colossi kept arriving; as Block F filled, new machines went to a newly constructed Block H next door. Including Colossus I, a total of ten machines were installed by April, 1945, an overwhelming force. Exploiting them was a constant growing staff of cryptographers, engineers and Wrens.

Production of an eleventh Colossus started on May 8, 1945. But the work was soon halted; it was V-E day, and the war was over.

As I read that, I couldn't help but think of Nvidia and the Blackwell GB200 NVL 72 and the race to get them to market. 

And then I thought. Who else would be ordering as many as they could get. Quick. Anyone else involved in cryptography? NSA, perhaps. Deep pockets.

And those large data centers? They aren't static. As time goes on, they will replace the "200's" with the next upgrade. 

Never quit reading.

Geniuses At War was published in 2021. The author seems not to have a background in cryptograpohy. Where do I go next. I don't know but this looks like a good start.


My copy of Geniuses is from the library. I may order my own copy to place side-by-side with Gannon's Colossus. We'll see.

The Geniuses epilogue is bittersweet -- more bitter than sweet. Turing's suicide? 

From the epilogue, p. 167:

The recognition accorded to the participants in Bletchley Park's success varied enormously. During the final year of the war, Edward Travis, head of Bletchley Park from February 1942 onward, was knighted as a KCMG, for Knight Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George, sometimes rendered as "Kindly Call Me God." His predecessor, Alastair Denniston, received no honors and would die in 1961 without an obituary in the London newspapers. Flowers was named an MBE, an almost negligible honor, and received an award of one thousand pounds, said to have been less than he spent on Colossus out of his own pocket. 

Turing received an OBE, a level above an MBE but still minor, especially next to his contributions to the war; Newman said that Turing accepted it "rather as a joke." Turing stored his OBE medal in a tin box together with nails, screws, nuts and other miscellaneous hardware. Newman was offered the same award but turned it down, disgusted by what he considered the government's "ludicrous" ingratitude toward his former student. (Seven decades later, in 2015, the actor Benedict Cumberbatch, who had the role of Turing in a feature film the preceding year, would receive a CBE, a higher honor than the one given to the war hero he had portrayed.)

Sunday Night -- Tech Investing -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48364TECH.

I can't recall if I've already posted this. Very, very helpful for those interested in investing in tech. 

Link here

When the link "opens," something weird happens. Instead of scrolling down, you will want to scroll up to see data points about each of the twenty companies.


Personal investing:

New money:

  • tech (magnificent seven), including MSFT but not AAPL; 
  • CAT
  • SCHB
  • SCHD
  • BRK-B
  • SCHG (see below)
  • SCCO

Don't forget: from August 18, 2024 --

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Musical Interlude

Sunday night. Early. YouTube. Leonard Cohen. Norah Jones.

This takes me back to 2004. Yorkshire, England. August meteors. Perseid meteor shower. Not that night, but eventually hikes along the River Nidd. To Pateley Bridge. 

Link here.

Intel, Qualcomm, Apollo Group -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48363INTC.

Apollo Group.  

David Faber, CNBC, just had a major interview with the CEO of the Apollo Group last week.

When a major bank fails, there are any number of suitors swooping in for bits and pieces, or the entire thing.

When OXY ran into trouble, Warren Buffett swooped in.

This feels like the same thing. 

All things being equal, INTC (Intel) should have another great day tomorrow.

Tonight:

Sunday Night Headlines That Caught My Attention -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48362INCOME.

Income changes by state, link here. North Dakota is #2. But on the "bad list." North Dakota? I assume it was depressed agricultural prices and less oil activity.

South Dakota saw the largest increase both in dollars and percentage growth.
Maryland had the worse decline in incomes. The state with the next-worst decline in incomes, North Dakota, experienced a 6% decrease to its household median.
Maryland was worse, #1 in terms of folks fleeing the state. Isn't Maryland near the Federal capitol/capital?


Israel
: may be ready for a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. Everything seems easier without a pesky US president who might otherwise be too over-involved.

The Middle East pivots. Link here.

Military / national security officials endorse Harris. Link here. Trump: a loose cannon, narcissistic, stubborn, and has his own strategic plan for the defense of America. Unhinged comes to mind. Also, Dr Strangelove's General Turgidson also comes to mind. LOL.


GOP will try again. Link here.

Trump: We Were Duped -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48361BOOKS.

Book review by Alexander Nazaryan.

LUCKY LOSER: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father’s Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success, by Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig, 2024.


How it all began: 

It’s a strength of “Lucky Loser” that the biographical details deepen the portrait as much as they foreshadow the plot.
The book is a multigenerational saga that begins with the former president’s grandparents, Frederick and Elizabeth Trump, migrating from Germany at the turn of the century and settling in Queens, where they got into real estate, buying up vacant lots.
Their middle child, Fred, joined the business and took advantage of the newly established Federal Housing Administration, which supercharged the market in the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s. Creative only in his dishonesties — his buildings were dull boxes — Fred inflated his construction costs to secure generous F.H.A. loans and then skimped on construction expenses, pocketing the difference and setting high rents based on the original, fictitious projections.

Federal investigators eventually caught on. So did the local press. A 1954 article in The Brooklyn Daily Eagle described Fred Trump, in Buettner and Craig’s words, as “a pariah feeding on government largesse and gouging his tenants.” Having to trudge down to Washington to answer questions from U.S. senators proved humiliating, but Fred never faced serious consequences.

The elder Trump made his family prosperous and comfortable enough to join the Atlantic Beach Club, where Donald, the fourth of five children, “would wait by the pool for arriving families to pass by in their street clothes and then soak them with a monster cannonball off the high diving board,” Buettner and Craig write. The authors track down a club member from that era who laments Trump’s antics, since he always found a way to pass off the blame.

By the early ’70s, Fred had settled into tending the fortune he had created, while Donald, as the favorite son, played with his father’s money. Bolstered by millions of dollars from Fred, Donald bought the decrepit Commodore Hotel on East 42nd Street in 1976, replacing it with the boxy, unimaginative Grand Hyatt. It was his first building in Manhattan.

Never quit reading.

Personal Investing -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48360PERSINV.

SCCO:

Personal investing:

New money:

  • tech (magnificent seven), including MSFT but not AAPL; 
  • CAT
  • SCHB
  • SCHD
  • BRK-B
  • SCHG (see below)
  • SCCO

Don't forget: from August 18, 2024 --

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Watching NFL Football, I About Fell Off My Chair When This Was Pushed To Me -- Sunday, September 22, 2024

Locator: 48359ARCHIVES.

As readers know, we call Grapevine, TX, home, now.

I guess Grapevine, TX, is conservative, though I don't really notice it. Grapevine, TX, is also home to DFW airport, and either home to or near huge Amazon fulfillment centers.

But just to the northwest is a very, very conservative Southlake, TX. And to the immediate west, Colleyville, even more so.

Whatever.

Link here.

There's a very good chance that Ted Cruz could lose this election. 

A little bit of irony here. 

With Roe v. Wade overturned, some battles were won, but the war was not yet over. So, we'll see.

The article: currently almost 1800 comments.

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The Book Page

Gillian Anderson has been getting a lot of press lately -- mostly from New York writers, I suppose. I know her only from The X-Files; haven't followed her since, but wow, what a biography

Here, in The NY Times, Gillian answers questions on her reading program. I wouldn't have posted this but then I came across this:

Q: What books are. your embarrassed not to have read yet?

A: Middlemarch, Passages, the list goes one.

Middlemarch!!?

I began an aggressive, eclectic reading program in 2000. Middlemarch was a big part of that reading program. I've discussed that book many times on the blog, perhaps most recently, August 18, 2024.

Perhaps one of my best notes on Middlemarch was written / posted September 1, 2012. Sometimes I surprise myself with some of my notes. LOL.

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The NFL Page

I'm watching the Dallas game.

Color commentary / analysis: Tom Brady.

Wow, Brady does not have a TV announcer's voice. 

I prefer Tony Romo's voice and his "craziness."


As Usual, There Is Always More To The Story -- Let's Take A Look At Credit Card Debt -- Again, We're Never Given The Denominator -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48358CREDITCARDDEBT.

Link here.


Thank goodness for twitter, the internet, transparency, and the Fed:

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The Movie Page

DEI -- Backlash --> Dead -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48357DEI.

Link here.

ZeroHedge -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48356ARCHIVES.

The shocking truth about global warming. Link here.


Top-selling albums of the 21st century. Look who's missing. Link here. But this is why I posted this:

The B-1 bomber, Ellsworth AFB, SD, link here:

Terrible Maps -- The USA's Largest Aircraft Carrier -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48355MAPS.

Link here.

Movie Night -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48350ARCHIVES.

Movie: early Friday evening, Soylent Green. Al Gore was a "johnny-come-lately." Hollywood knew about global warming since at least before 1973! Harari's worst fears realized! 1973 -- fifty years ago. I'm glad I never saw this film until tonight. 1973: I graduated from college that year. Since then, raised two generations of children. [By the way: I haven't had a haircut by a "professional" since February, 2020 -- wow -- can you believe that? 2020 -- Trump shut everything down in March, 2020. My only barber: Sophia, now ten years old. She started cutting my hair when she was five years old or thereabouts.]


Daimler: the boys took a tour of the Daimler plant in Portland, Oregon, today. I was told not to show photos taken inside the facility. So, for now, this one only:

Politics -- A Fair And Balanced Review Of Articles Streaming Last Week Suggest Trump May Be Giving Up -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48355POLITICS.

Updates

September 23, 2024:

Later, 7:07 p.m. CDT: having just watched an exciting NFL game, I went over to Drudge. The tea leaves suggest Harris is peaking at just the right time; and the Trump organization is imploding. JD Vance is absolutely not helping. Are we down to the last six weeks?

Original Post

JD Vance is doubling down, Trump himself is opting out of a second debate even as polls begin to turn.

Desperate? A flurry of freebies. Link here.

NC rally, link here:

  • when we had high inflation: the country was doing badly
  • now that low inflation is being report: low inflation is associated with a country doing badly

It gets tedious. 

And whiner in chief: cutting the Fed rate was political. 

I'm not exactly sure what to think of his base any more. 

MAGA looks to shut down government, tying unrelated issue to funding. Nothing new, but it does get tedious.

Trump polls. Dynamic link.

Harris looms.


From the linked article, a woman of color beating Trump at his own game:
Vice President Kamala Harris entered the homestretch of the general election building a campaign that was bigger than former President Donald J. Trump’s in nearly every discernible category.
She is raising more money than Mr. Trump, with her campaign collecting more than four times as much as his did in August.
She is spending far more money than he is — nearly three times more in August. And she is holding on to more money than Mr. Trump, ending the month with $100 million more in the bank than him.

The Fed Is Flying Blind -- Investors Don't Seem To Care -- TWSJ -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48354ECON.

Tag: Fed, JPow, economy.

Link here

Bloomberg NEF -- A New Site To Follow -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48353ETSC.

Link to wiki for background

The Bloomberg NEF site.

Texas: tug of war -- solar and power-hungry data centers.

How Bad Was It? Yeah, That Bad -- App Economy -- FEDEX -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48352RETAIL.

Tag: FedEx.

Link here.  

WMT And Costco -- Buying Back Shares -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48351RETAIL.

Tag: Walmart, WMT, Costco, COST

With cut in Fed rate, we're going to see a lot more of this.

Link here.

SLB And Nvidia Partnership -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48350NVDA.

Tag: Schlumberger, SLB, Nvidia, NVDA

Link here.

Cost Of Renewables -- Bankrupting Europe -- LDCs -- September 21, 2024

Locator: 48349RENEWABLES.

Updates

September 22, 2024: Bjorn Lomborg -- decades in the making -- the chickens come home to roost --

Original Post 

Italy: sky-high power costs "despite" clean energy push. I thought clean energy was to provide free electricity. LOL. Link here.

Nuclear: Three Mile Island -- now we need it! For AI. For LDCs. For Microsoft. Link here.


Nuclear. Three Mile Island -- now we need it! For AI. For LDCs. For Microsoft. Link here. WSJ.

US construction costs for solar, wind, natural gas. Link here.


Construction costs for utility plants
. Statista. Link here. "Overnight costs." Which means "all-in" costs are much, much greater. 

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AI -- LDCs  -- Energy

More on Microsoft - AI - Pennsylvania -- LDCs -- Nuclear -- Three Mile Island

Link here.

Tech giants, including Microsoft, are increasingly exploring nuclear energy as a power source for energy-hungry AI data centers.
Job postings uploaded last year suggested that Microsoft, which has invested heavily in artificial intelligence through its partnership with OpenAI, was exploring using nuclear energy to power its data centers.
Bobby Hollis, Microsoft's vice president of energy, told Bloomberg that the Three Mile Island reactor would help Microsoft meet its target of being carbon-negative by 2030 and that energy from the site would be used for data-center expansion in Pennsylvania and nearby states. The AI models behind chatbots like ChatGPT require huge amounts of energy to train and run, and those power needs have supercharged a wave of spending on data centers across the US.

NOTE: 800,000 square feet is the threshold to watch ...

USA Data Centers: link here.

Western Europe Data Centers: link here.

EU/UK: ten largest data centers. What catches your eye?

  • Portugal: has the largest, 800,000 sq feet; one of the world's largest
  • Wales: 750,000 sq feet
  • Germany: 560 sq feet
  • Ireland: 550 sq feet, Microsoft;
  • Sweden: 290 sq feet, Facebook;
  • Slough, UK: 226
  • Finland: 161
  • Denmark: Google
  • Netherlands: 100; AMS-1, Iron Mountain

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NVIDIA

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 22, 2024

Locator: 48354WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40330, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-LW-156-94-0805H-1, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241518423600
6-20241750524229
5-20242048727865
4-20242771133776
  • 38260, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-6, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241940632073
6-20242032638109
5-20241727530851
4-20242442635938
  • 37824, conf, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242271613706
6-202459697407
4-2024930911196
  • 37819, conf, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242279617218
6-20242707631978
5-20241095717086
4-20241068110289
  • 40238, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-LW-156-96-3427H-1, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241956458240
6-20241967442865
5-20242747847123
4-20244354380172
  • 37825, conf, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241952212112
6-20241966212816
5-20241442711487
4-202487298740
3-20240250
  • 40239, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-8, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241310736410
6-20242232750147
5-20242433942830
4-20244049873871
3-20248951123
  • 37826, conf, Enerplus, Renard 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241677416445
6-20242395520959
5-20241300312575
4-20242190219155
3-20240422
  • 40281, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-156-94-0805H-8, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241345620021
6-20241301718128
5-20241204012718
4-20241190814037
3-202415653091
  • 40280, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-156-94-0805H-7, Blue Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241748124211
6-20241838824048
5-20241792524111
4-20243875754727
3-202457755657
  • 39936, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-LW-156-92-1423H-1, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241952214655
6-20242147014374
5-20242039614167
4-20243302014352
3-202451911300
  • 40522, conf, Slawson, Fisherman 5-21 28TFH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39935, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-2, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241771310125
6-20241998811624
5-2024173899364
4-20243055720086
3-202492223083
  • 37827, conf, Enerplus, Swift 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241616015884
6-20242279920253
5-20241188011919
4-20241897015096
3-20240329
  • 40562, conf, Slawson, Snoop Alley 6-16-9TFH, Big Bend, npd, 
  • 38259, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-7, Blue Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242257238611
6-20242144737437
5-20242124535298
4-20242814553503
3-202450077658
  • 40554, conf, Slawson, Fisherman 4-21-28H, Big Bend, npd,
  • 40561, conf, Slawson, Payara 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 40351, conf, KODA Resources, Stout1435-6BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2024201271428
7-2024202932268
6-2024135150
5-2024197080
4-202434270
  • 40350, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 14-2-5BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202411412533
7-2024154961239
5-202450360
4-202485440
  • 40240, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-7, Beaver Lodge, the oldest oil field in North Dakota:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241753049541
6-20242233459187
5-20242409445394
4-20244435083258
3-20241471925476
  • 40560, conf, Slawson, Prowler 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39934, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-2, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241778213743
6-20241804712961
5-2024128918742
4-20242118615177
3-2024148695488
  • 23385, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241468956907
6-20241903852454
5-20242724747339
4-20241911720367