Showing posts with label EVs_Trucks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EVs_Trucks. Show all posts

Friday, December 29, 2023

EV Trucks, The Ports, California And All That Jazz -- December 29, 2023

Locator: 46418EVTRUCKS. 

If I track the new California - Port - EV truck mandate, effective January 1, 2024, it will be tracked here. Re-posting;

California, E-trucks, and the ports: link here. Something tells me it's not as rosy as Mr Diaz is making it sound. It will be interesting to see if his company is still around in 2026. And the bigger picture: look how much it will take to build out the infrastructure to accomplish what California and the ports have mandated. And note that every one of the EV trucks he bought-- Nikolas -- were recalled with the promise that Diaz would get them back "sometime" in 2024. If Nikola survives financially. The bigger question: why didn't he go with Daimler EV trucks? Nikola is in the middle of moving battery operations from California to Arizona.

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Nikola

From link above.

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Mullen Is Up 75% Today -- What's Up? December 21, 2023

Locator: 46371EVS.

Mullen is up 75% today.

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Re-Posting

Locator: 45349EVS.

Warning: all readers should skip this page. I did this for my own benefit because I was starting to lose the bubble.


This is re-capping a rabbit hole from which acabo de volver

LOL.

It all started when I realized I omitted ELMS from my EV scorecard. Or if it's there, which it probably is, I missed it.

Long story short: ELMS went bankrupt; was bought by Mullan.

Mullan will roll out its class 3 truck on August 24, 2023.

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Tickers

ELMS:


MULN:


From the link above:
Mullen / ELMS: 
The $240 million cash purchase allows Mullen the capability to build up to 50,000 EVs annually, accelerating the launch of the Mullen FIVE and Bollinger B1 and B2 retail vehicles. The deal also gives Mullen control over ELMS’s inventory, intellectual property rights and plant in Mishawaka, Indiana.

Mullen, which went public in a 2021 SPAC merger, is in growth mode, acquiring in September a 60% controlling interest in Bollinger Motors, a Michigan-based startup that aimed to build battery-electric commercial trucks and off-road pickups. Electric Last Mile Solutions, another Michigan startup, filed for bankruptcy in June, less than a year after it went public through a $1.4 billion SPAC deal.

Several startups that went public in high-profile reverse mergers over the past couple of years have faced bankruptcy, SEC scrutiny or cash crunches. The purchase of ELMS will allow Mullen to “to shorten its production path and aggressively expand into the commercial and consumer EV market,” David Michery, CEO and chairman of Mullen Automotive, said in a statement.

The automaker plans to build the Mullen FIVE, as well as the Mullen Class 1 and Class 3 commercial delivery vehicles expected next year, at its factory in Tunica, Mississippi. In addition to the Mullen FIVE slated to enter production in 2024, the company plans to build the Five RS, an “ultra-high-performance EV sport crossover” with 1,000 horsepower, a top speed of 200 mph and 0-to-60 acceleration under two seconds.

Break, break. I also forgot to include Canoo (GOEV) on the EV scorecard, and any updates, or maybe I did and I forgot. I do remember the Canoo - NASA tie-up some month ago.
Today:


Ticker, GOEV:



From wiki:


Probability of bankruptcy: link here.

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Truck Classification

In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors, errors of omission and commission. If this is important to you, go to the source.


Vehicle classification in the US.

Light duty.
  • Class 1: passenger cars and really, really light-weight pickup trucks like the Ford Ranger, Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier.
    • The F-150 is almost a class 1, but it falls into the the class 2 category, but class 2 is the only class further broken into class 2a and 2b. So, the F-150 "upsets" the "trend" that one sees below. 
  • Class 2a: F-150
  • Class 2b: F-250
Medium duty.
  • Class 3: F-350
  • Now, it gets a bit interesting. An F-350 is a class 3 truck but an F-450 comes in both the class 3 flavor and the class 4 favor. 
    • so, Ford markets two class 3 pick-up trucks: the F-350 and the F-450
    • class 3 F-450: the typical pick-up truck;
      • class 4 F-450: just the cab and the chassis; no "box." It's like the typical urban tow trucks one sees everywhere picking up stalled EVs
  • Class 4: F-450 (chassis only model, as noted above)
A trend is starting to develop, continuing with medium duty.
  • Class 5: F-550
  • Class 6: F-650
Heavy duty
  • Class 7 26,001 - 33,000 pounds.: F-750; Kenworth K370, Mack MD, Peterbilt 220 and 337/348, etc.
  • Class 8, 33,001 - 80,000 pounds: Volvo Truck VNL, Freightliner Cascadia, Ford F-750, Kenworths, Nikola TRE, Peterbilts, Western Stars, and so on. 
I figured out the nomenclature using the quarter-ton, half-ton, three-quarter-ton naming, but now the "class nomenclature" makes sense. Whether it was planned that way or not.

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

F-150 Update -- Stealth Launch -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45629EVS.

EV sales growth slows: link here

Hybrids: fake EVs. Link here.

The all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck gets a lot of attention, but make no mistake the traditional truck is still Ford’s more important vehicle.

Ford Motor launched the newly redesigned 2024 F-150s on Tuesday evening, September 12, 2023. The launch is intended to extend Ford’s lead in the key truck segment of the U.S. automotive market.

The importance of the F-150 to Ford can’t be understated. It’s been the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for some 40-plus years and the best-selling truck for almost 50. Through the end of August, Ford has sold 514,716 F-150s in America, up 22% year over year and accounting for about 38% of Ford’s U.S. total sales.
Buried:
The all-electric F-150 Lightning was launched with a lot of fanfare in 2022, but sales are stuck at roughly 2% of total F-150 units. Manufacturing problems have hurt Ford’s ability to deliver more.

And more:

Lightnings aren’t the only F-150s with batteries, however. About 10% of F-150 sales in 2023 are hybrids. “We’re looking to double our mix of hybrid sales … to at least 20% next year,” says Andrew Frick, vice president of Ford’s traditional car unit, Ford Blue.

Ford is cutting the price of 2024 hybrid models by some $2,000 to help make that happen
.

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Daimler Truck -- Has It Turned The Corner? Reports Record Margins Despite Rising Costs -- August 1, 2023

Locator: 45286TRUCKING.

Link here.

This article corroborates what I've heard elsewhere.

Highlights:
  • 2Q23 adjusted return on sales: 10.3% for its industrial business
  • supply chains were easing
  • some bottlenecks but no major production downtime was expected
  • company's order intake was down partly because it had not yet opened up order books for next year
  • guidance: "won't be a bad year next year"
  • guidance: raised approx 100 basis points

Monday, July 31, 2023

Why Did The Blog Editor Decide To Post This Story? July 31, 2023

Locator: 45266EVS.

The story, link here.

I looked at this story for quite some time -- couldn't decide whether it was worth the time, the effort to post it. There were a lot of nice data points but the article just didn't have enough of what I needed to post a story ... 

... until ...

... near the end. 

First of all, this story is all about the LA and Long Beach ports. Period. Dot.

But this is why I posted the story. Near the end:

As folks should know by now, I am accumulating shares in Daimler Trucking. Not for me. For the grandsons in Portland, Oregon.

Monday, June 5, 2023

Ford Sales -- Mixed But Better -- But EVs A Debacle -- May, 2023

Locator: 44841FORD. 
Locator: 44841EVS.  

 Updates

June 6, 2023: link here. But do you ever see anyone hauling anything in an F-150?

Original Post

GM:

Link here.

Ford -- all vehicles:

  • y/y: up 10.7%
  • y/y: from 154,461 to 170,933

Ford -- by vehicle:

  • trucks: point of strength (again)
    • up 31.6%; 98,000 units
    • F-Series: 42.7% gain y/y
    • F-150: soared nearly 50%; 
    • the redesigned Super Duty, recently launched, up 33.9%
    • F-150 Lightning (EV): 1,707 for the month
  • SUVs: down nearly 10% in May
    • up: Bronco Sport, redesigned Escape, Expedition
    • down: EcoSport, Bronco, Mach-#, Edge, Explorer
  • ICEs: up 11.1% in May
  • hybrids: up 20.5%
  • EVs DOWN 13% year-over-year
    • ramping up plant production: Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning.

Note: it's my understanding that for an EV to qualify for tax credits, it must be built in the US --

Mach-E production was down at Ford's Cuautitlan plant in Mexico for several weeks earlier this year while the company prepared to increase production there to 130,000 units this year. Mach-E output has risen steadily the last few months, according to production data released Friday, with more than 13,600 units assembled in May. Year to date, the plant has produced more than 33,000 Mach-Es.

Others, y/y:

  • Honda: up 58.2%
  • Hyundai: up 18%
  • Toyota: 6%+

Cox Automotive estimate:

  • y/y for the industry: 20.3%
  • results higher than Cox estimate (but not reported in the article?)

Glut of new cars starting to be reported by US dealers. I was off by a year. I thought we would see this last summer. 

Ticker, one year:


Bud:


BRK-B:

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Tesla China

Link here.

U.S. automaker Tesla Inc delivered 77,695 China-made electric vehicles in May, a 2.4% jump from April.
On a yearly basis, sales rose 142% in May from 32,165 vehicles in the same month of 2022 when Shanghai, where its factory is located, was still subject to COVID-19 containment measures that impacted production.
Chinese rival BYD Co Ltd with its Dynasty and Ocean series of EVs and petrol-electric hybrid vehicles, logged sales of 239,092 vehicle in May, up 14% from April.

Friday, March 24, 2023

Ford -- An EV Company -- For The Archives -- March 24, 2023

Updates

Later, 4:19 p.m. CT: too big to fail. A WSJ op-ed.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

For the archives.

I've traded in and out of Ford over the years, but nothing recently. 

Readers must know, by now, that, even with a rolling 30-year horizon, and despite a >%5 dividend, EVs are not for me.

Ford has now declared itself an EV company and that's how I now follow Ford, along with:

  • Tesla
  • Rivian
  • Arrival
  • Lucid
  • Lordstown, and,
  • more than a dozen others.

Question for the day -- what's behind Ford's decision to "break out" EV costs? Answers to the above two questions fall in these three arenas.

  • reassure Ford shareholders;
  • after three years of increasing losses, ready to report an improvement;
  • going head-to-head with Tesla

Also, this question:

  • why a special dividend at this time?

Ford announced this week that it is a "new company," with five divisions, and will now break out earnings for its EV division. This is huge, and raises two questions:

  • why did Ford make the decision to break out earnings for its EV division; and,
  • why now?

Ford dividend: hand-in-glove with the above question is Ford's dividend -- particularly the special dividend --  at which we will also take a look. 

Ford dividend: history.

  • 20 lines; if dividends paid quarterly, 20 lines should go back five years -- to 2018
  • dividend:
    • 1996: 35 cents;
    • 1997: 42 cents;
    • 1998: 48 cents;
    • 2000: 50 cents;
    • 2001: 15 cents;
    • 2002: 10 cents;
    • 2006: 5 cents;
    • 2006 - 2011: dividend suspended; almost a full five years lost;
    • 2012: 5 cents;
    • 2015: 15 cents;

Shares before / after announcement of 65-cent-extra:

  • 3/14/23: $11.93
  • 3/23/23: $11.42

Forbes: link here.

Financhhill: link here, undated.

Critical floor: $10.

Financials:

  • outstanding shares: 4,021,000,000 shares.
  • 60 cents / share regular dividend for the year + 65 cents / share special dividend, 2023 = $1.25 / share
  • 1.25 x 4,021,000,000 = $5.03 billion forecast to be paid in 2023

EV division loss:

  • 2023: forecast -- $3 billion
  • 2022: $2.1 billion
  • 2021: $900 million

EPS -- Ford:

  • Ford Motor 2022 annual EPS was $-0.49, a 111.01% decline from 2021.
  • Ford Motor 2021 annual EPS was $4.45, a 1490.63% decline from 2020.

Comments:

  • glad to see that $167-savings on a $100,000-truck
  • "low-end" F-150s can be had for $35,000 suggesting a huge mark-up / margin for the Raptor

Bottom line:

  • BOD decision with regard to dividend / special dividend and the decision to break out earnings for its EV division:
    • it points to a "belief" by the BOD that Ford is going to announce huge reversal of fortunes for its EV division and huge earnings for fiscal year 2023

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Chip War -- January 21, 2023

I'll be posting my notes on the Chip War at this post.

Having just completed the book for the first time, I am absolutely convinced the Pentagon, Silicon Valley, and the national security agencies in Washington are working well together. Considering.

For investors, this is a must-read book. 

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Philadelphia Eagles

I can’t recall seeing such a dominant NFL team as the Philadelphia Eagles tonight. 

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Mercedes Benz -- EV

Link to arena-ev.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

As folks probably know, 5% of my new money investment allotment goes in Mercedes Benz. I believe Mercedes Benz of North America may have the inside track with regard to EV trucks, but I could be wrong.

From autoweek, May 24, 2021.

See also this post on the blog, November 21, 2022.

Friday, December 9, 2022

Talking Autos -- December 9, 2022

See also, Ford, the business model.

Note: while reading this article, remember: "everyone" says the US is headed for a very severe recession in early 2023 to be followed by a long period of American stagflation.

Ford: link here -- long, long story in The Detroit News. The headline puts a positive spin on Ford but --

  • I'm really having trouble looking for much good news.
  • buried deep in the article: sales results in November underperformed the industry as a whole;

EVs

  • Ford EV brand: now #2 behind Tesla
  • y/y: November sales
    • all vehicles: down 7.8%; sales: 146,364 vehicles
    • truck sales: down 1.2%; sales: 81,210 vehicles
    • SUV sales ... fasten your seat belts -- down 15%; sales: 61,889 units
  • EVs: doubled y/y
    • market share: 8.6%
    • sales: 6,255
    • So, November, 2022 EV sales: 6,255
  • Ford's goal: producing 600,000 EV's annually by end of next year (2023)
    • ramp up from 6,000 / month to 50,0000 / month twelve months from now
    • talk of a recession first two quarters of 2023
    • goal: 2 million EVs by the end of 2025

Tesla:

  • doesn't provide detailed breakdown of sales
  • independent source suggests Tesla sold:
    • 340,000 in first nine months of 2022;
    • that averages out to 38,000 / month
    • vs Ford's total EV sales to date in 2022:
      • Ford: 53,752 EVs;
      • works out to 6,000 EVs / month
      • F-150 Lightning (#1 EV pickup in US), Mustang Mach-E, E-Transit
  • Tesla market share: has dropped from 79% in 2020 to 65% this year (2022)

Hyundai-Kai:

  • number 2 for EV sales in the US

Ford pickup line up:

  • Ford F-Series will easily retain title as best selling pickup brand
  • but that flagship franchise saw sales slide 8.7% y/y
  • Ranger pickup sales down 70% (rounded)
  • Maverick compact p/u up almost 200% y/y

All:

  • independent-derived numbers because not all report figures
  • GM: strongest y/y sales growth in the industry; up 42.2% (again compare with F's 8% decline)
  • Stellantis; largest y/y decline of major OEMs with sales down 13%, y/y

Others:

  • American Honda: sales down 6% y/y
  • Hyundai Motor America: record November sales up 43% y/y

Most interesting, the last paragraph in the story:

Meanwhile, Ford reported that retail orders for 2023 model year vehicles are up 104% compared to orders for 2022 model year vehicles a year ago.
The company, which has increasingly emphasized customers placing orders in advance, has 307,000 orders for '23 vehicles.
Andrew Frick, vice president of sales, distribution and trucks for Ford Blue, said in a statement that growth in the order bank is being driven by demand for the Super Duty and Maverick trucks.
Super Duty has notched a record 152,000 orders since they opened in late October.

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GM in Forbes

Link here.

GM's Mary Barra confident of complete consumer EV conversion / acceptance.

A quote that surprised me:

“There's a lot of forces that are going to be driving people to electric vehicles. They're fun to drive. They're great vehicles. I've been driving a Bolt and then we own a Hummer and you get used to not going to the gas station really quickly."

Thoughts:

1. I don't picture Mary pumping her own gas;

2.  Unless charging at home, waiting in queues to charge an EV certainly is not more pleasant that filling up with gasoline with no wait.

Americans buying an EV is still contingent upon price of gasoline. 

From the article:

A survey of more than 2,000 U.S. vehicle owners on their attitudes towards EVs, revealed 56% said they'd consider one if gas prices reached $5.00 a gallon.
Since spiking earlier this year, gas prices have fallen to an average of $3.329 a gallon according to the Triple A. There goes one stimulus to change.

GM goal: all light-duty vehicles to be battery EV by 2035. 

Talking her book; I did not a lot of warm fuzzies from the article.

Monday, November 21, 2022

Wow -- Daimler -- November 21, 2022

Link here.

Daimler -- Freightliner -- Western Star -- tag.

We've discussed this often on the blog.

An open book test. 

I've changed my "new-money allocation" plan, 30-year horizon.

Was:

  • Buffett, blue-chip: 40%
  • tech infrastructure (mostly chips): 30%
  • energy (mostly oil): 20%
  • mRNNA: 10%

New:

  • Buffett, blue-chip: 30%
  • tech infrastructure (mostly chips): 30%
  • energy (mostly oil): 20%
  • mRNA: 10%
  • Daimler: 10% (might be considered part of Buffett, blue-chip)

Screenshots:




 More:


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

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For The Archives
Daimler

The various ticker symbols are confusing.

I had been accumulating shares in Daimler for decades before the truck division spin-off.

I don't remember the specifics but after the spin-off, all my Daimler holdings were exchanged for "Daimler truck group holding," ticker symbol: DTRHF.

Most recently, I've been accumulating DTRUY.

From page 28 of the 2021 Annual Report:

Schwab generally charges no commission fees but because DTRUY is "OTC," Schwab charges a fee. My most recent trade included a commission of $6.95.

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Huge Cash Crunch Over At Rivian; Now, All Those Pre-Orders? Being Sold At A Loss -- March 5, 2022

I track EVs here

I almost this story. Huge story. Speaks volumes about the trouble these EV manufacturers are in. 

I didn't keep the link but someone on twitter mentioned that he put an order in for an F-150 Lightning back in 2021 minutes after Ford started accepting pre-orders. Yesterday that individual received a note from Ford that he would not be getting his F-150 Lightning in 2022. That's absolutely stunning. Again, EVs are for the elites, for those who already have two or three cars and can wait two or three years for an EV. 

How long have "we" been manufacturing EVs and there's still a supply chain problem? 

Anyway, I digress. This was the story I was referring to -- about Rivian.

Link here.

Rivian Automotive Inc has rolled back price hikes on electric vehicles booked before March 1 after facing backlash from customers following a 20% increase in prices.

Preorders as of March 1 will not be subject to the new prices, and customers who canceled orders can reinstate them with the original price, Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said in a letter to clients on Thursday.

The Amazon-backed company on March 1 increased the base price of the Rivian R1T electric pickup to about $79,500 from $67,500, while the R1S SUV went to $84,500 from $70,000.

The price hike spurred some customers to cancel orders and express frustration, accusing the company of "betraying" its early supporters, according to social media postings.

"It was wrong and we broke your trust in Rivian," Scaringe wrote.

"I have made a lot of mistakes since starting Rivian more than 12 years ago, but this one has been the most painful."

Rivian stock, which plunged over 13% on Wednesday, extended losses on Thursday, down 4%.

A lot of Rivian owners are going to make a killing if they ever get their pre-orders. As soon as they get them, they could turn around and "flip" them for the going price of a new Rivian. My hunch: some will double their money.

Thursday, December 9, 2021

I Stand Corrected -- EV Truck Weight May Not Be An Issue -- December 9, 2021

In an e-mail conversation with a reader about road taxes and truck weight, I suggested that there were reports earlier that EV cargo loads would have to be lower to account for heavier EV tractors due to the batteries.

Apparently that is being address. See this article. Most interesting is this:

Interestingly, the company reports a little known fact that electric trucks in the US and Europe have both been approved for slightly higher total load. From Tesla:
With both the U.S. and E.U. having approved higher weight allowances for electric heavy-duty trucks, we expect the payload to be at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck. In the E.U., electric semi trucks are allowed to be 2 tons (~4,400 pounds) heavier than diesel equivalents, and in the U.S. the allowance is 0.9 tons (2,000 pounds). 
When fully loaded, the Tesla Semi should be able to achieve over 500 miles of range, achieved through aerodynamics and highly efficient motors. This truck will be able to reach an efficiency of over 0.5 miles per kWh. 
While a 2,000-lb difference doesn’t sound like much leeway on an 80,000-lb limit, it’s going to give Tesla Semi just enough to compete with diesel trucks. 
My hunch is that federal and state governments were able to get this "passed" by compromising to agreeing to a higher tax rated on that increased weight. Maybe the rate increase will be linear; to be determined. See below: after posting this note about weight, a reader who is, seriously, an authority on this, corrected me:

Later, from an expert in the trucking industry.

Each state has a road use mileage tax compiled by the truck registering with IFTA – Interstate Fuel Tax Authority. 
Each state has different tax rates per mile traveled. The trucking company files quarterly reports on the miles traveled in each state. You can buy fuel in each state to pay as you go and make up the difference or receive credit from each state. Your base state does the audit to verify your mileage is correct. With electronic logs it is very easy and accurate to compute the tax. 
When drivers had paper logs it was much harder. The driver would record his odometer reading while crossing each state line and compute the tax. 
Tax has nothing to do with weight, it’s the same loaded or empty. Miles traveled are all that matters. 
Many trucks are loaded full and the freight is light so the total gross weight is much lower than the limit. Like moving Styrofoam cups. Other  freight is very heavy per cubic foot so the trailer may be ½ empty and still be close to max weight. 
Taxes have nothing to do with gross weight. Weight limits have to do with bridge load limits, brake function needed to stop the full weight unit in the distance required in the Code of Federal Regulation and other engineering limits like tires and frames.

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

USPS Sticks With ICE's Despite Biden's Executive Order -- March 3, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

For those interested in e-trucks, this is a must read: Workhorse Electric delivery van builds are lagging, but backlog swells.

Over at FreightWaves via Yahoo!Finance, March 2, 2021.

WKHS:

  • trading in the mid- to high-teens
  • one year ago: < $3/share
  • market cap: $2 billion
  • P/E: N/A

Their truck plant is located in Union City, Indiana (a red state, which will be important later on as we will see).

So, this $2 billion company. How many trucks rolled off its assembly line in December, 2020? I don't know.

How many rolled off its assembly line in November, 2020?

I don't know that either.

But for the 4Q20, a whopping -- are you sitting down? -- a whopping seven trucks were built by the company. Seven trucks. And the company is worth $2 billion.

Okay.

But there is good news. The CEO says the company is scaling up [one would hope so]. 

We are facing various supply chain challenges, both internal and external," CEO Duane Hughes said on the company's Q4 earnings call Monday. "Given our backlog, we cannot sacrifice future build volume for current-year production. Scaling up manufacturing properly has to take precedence."

So, Workhorse will continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June.

The full-year goal of producing 1,800 trucks is a stretch, Hughes said. [At least he seems honest.]

The negligible volume also means Workhorse is paying more for parts and for delivery to the plant.

Now, back to that "red state" bit.

See another Freightwaves article, dated March 1, 2021:

Workhorse Group will meet face-to-face with the U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday and may fight to be included in the program for next-generation mail delivery trucks. 
The Cincinnati-based company was stunned last Tuesday when the Postal Service awarded a 10-year contract worth an initial $482 million to defense contractor Oshkosh Truck Co. for the Next Generation Delivery Vehicles. 
Workhorse was the only finalist in the competition offering a full battery-electric vehicle (BEV). 
Oshkosh submitted a gasoline-powered prototype for evaluation. 
It recently said it could provide about 10% electric trucks within the 50,000 to 165,000 mail trucks initially planned. 
Politics are becoming a factor in the Postal Service award, which followed years of delays. 
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a holdover from the Trump administration, reports to a nine-member board of governors. Three members were appointed by Trump. 
President Joe Biden recently filled three openings.Biden signed an executive order Jan. 25 requiring the nation’s 645,000-vehicle fleet to convert to electric vehicles. The Postal Service accounts for about 35% of those. 
DeJoy told a congressional subcommittee that he did not see reduced maintenance cost of electric vehicles providing a significant advantage over internal combustion engines. He also said charging infrastructure was expensive compared to maintenance. 
Both Ohio, home to Workhorse, and Wisconsin, which is Oshkosh’s base, are hotly contested states politically. Trump won Ohio in the November presidential election. Biden was victorious in Wisconsin.

Monday, February 22, 2021

WTI Soars, EV-Long Haul Trucking Won't Be Ready For Prime Time For Years -- February 22, 2021

WTI:

  • GS sees $75 Brent in 3Q21
  • today: WTI soared over 4%; up $2.45; trending toward $62;

Tesla: Tesla's least expensive version of its Model Y is no longer available. Unlike the Model T, these cars are not made for the average man.

  • Standard Range Model Y: $41,990; cut by $2,000 last week; "only," $39,999
  • possibility of new federal tax credits for EVs that would make Tesla eligible for tax credits again; push profit margins lower if Tesla were to sell more of its cheapest model versions;
  • bottom line:
    • prices keep changing:
    • expensive;
    • federal tax credits are critical

Iraq: Iraq pauses massive prepaid oil deal with China as prices soar (very similar to hedging, but apparently Iraq can cancel any time it wants). 

EV trucks: yesterday I watched the Daimler unveiling of their new Freightliner Cascadia. Range: 250 miles. When I was growing up in North Dakota my dad told me truckers could re-fuel in Minnesota and drive clear across North Dakota without refueling. With a 250-mile range, EV truckers would have to re-charge at least once in North Dakota and possibly twice. With a 250-mile range between charging, that's barely a four-hour trip before re-charging.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Early Afternoon Edition -- February 16, 2021

Olympics 202One: it's being reported by CNBC that Japan, which will begin vaccinating tomorrow, will not require vaccination for athletes or spectators. Earlier the IOC had suggested all athletes would require vaccination "to save the Olympics." Perhaps this remains in flux.
 
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Retirees: Which State Is Best?

Retirees
: best states in which to retire. These lists are incredibly ridiculous but they are always fun. 

This is from MoneyRates via Yahoo!FinanceThe ten data sets used:

  • cost of living: okay
  • property taxes: okay
  • unemployment: why would retirees care? Sure, some relevancy but it's far down the line.


  • safety: okay, but generally retirees will pick safe places regardless of the state to which they move
  • violent and property crime (2): okay, but generally retirees will pick safe places regardless of the state to which they move
  • nursing facility capability: perhaps
    life expectancy: by the time in the life expectancy for any retiree has already been determined; where the retiree moves will hardly affect the retiree's own life expectancy
    health care costs: maybe; Medicare is the great leveler

And the results? 

Using those criteria, the best state for retirees:

  • Iowa
  • West Virginia
  • Arkansas
  • Mississippi
  • Florida
  • Kentucky
  • Connecticut
  • Missouri
  • Alabama
  • Rhode Island

The five worst:

  • Colorado
  • California
  • Washington
  • Nevada
  • Alaska


One would think amenities, hobbies, quality of life, would be a bit more important. 

But Iowa, the #1 state for retirees? I love Iowa, but give me a break. Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia. 

North Dakota, at #14, outranked Washington State, Oregon, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Texas. As much as I love North Dakota, I don't see retirees preferring North Dakota to these states.

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EVs vs Fracking

Exxon Mobil: energy demand, three drivers.

Link at WSJ

The Joe Biden administration will be piling a lot of chips on electric cars, the most popular and least useful way of fighting climate change. How much do the cars you and I drive actually contribute to emissions?

Don’t ask the Union of Concerned Scientists, an EV promoter habituated to quickly changing the subject to “transportation” emissions. Many inventories also ignore the full range of greenhouse emissions, focusing on CO2 to foster a nevertheless-untenable illusion that passenger cars provide leverage over a global climate problem. No matter how you fiddle the data, personal EVs are a single-digit factor and belong low on any sane list of priorities.

If the Environmental Protection Agency is right, the average light vehicle racks up 11,500 miles a year and sits idle 96% of the time. The World Resources Institute says passenger vehicles account for 7.5% of all emissions, but this includes buses, taxis, etc. Rental cars average 31,000 miles. Other fleet vehicles average 23,000 or more. Heavy trucks average 63,000 miles. One finding that appalled fleet operators is that their vehicles spend up to 33% of their time idling, which is not how people treat their personal vehicles.

The International Energy Agency in 2016 estimated that if 50% of all new cars were electric, petroleum use would continue to grow because of “trucks, aviation and the petrochemical industry and we don’t have major alternatives to oil products there.”

Exxon Mobil estimated more recently that if all new cars were electric by 2025, and the world’s entire fleet were electric by 2040, liquid-fuel demand in 2040 would be the same as 2013’s.

Few talk about it, but mining battery-related minerals generates emissions too. An electric car that’s sitting in your garage, not displacing a significant amount of gasoline-powered transportation but still sucking power out of a wall socket, can be a net emissions contributor when all is said and done.

I no longer have a dog in this fight but it's interesting to watch. 

Sunday, January 24, 2021

Spicks And SPACS -- An Update -- January 24, 2021

Link here.  

The companies in the chart below and their webpage tag or similar:

  • RIDE: Lordstown Motors Corp
 -- the world's first all electric commercial pickup;
  • FSR: Fisker, Inc -- Ocean (crossover SUV?), $37,499;
  • 
FIII: Forum Merger III
 --December 11, 2020 -- definitive merger agreement with Electric Last Mile Solutions, Inc, a deal valued at $1.3 billion;
  • GIK: Lightning eMotors
 -- powering fleets with lightning;
  • HYLN: Hyliion Holdings Corp -- Class 8 tractor trailer electrification;
  • 
CIIC: CIIG Merger Corp
 -- a SPAC; close to a deal with electric luxury vehicle start-up Lucid Motors
  • NGA: Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp

  • XL: XL Fleet Corp -- fleets, trucks; partnering with some big names, Chevrolet, GMC, Ford, Coca-Cola,
  • WKHS: Workhorse Group Inc
 -- focused on C-Series electric delivery vans;
  • GOEV: Canoo -- delivery vans
  • NKLA: Nikola Corporation 
-- Class 8 tractor trailer electrification;
  • ACTC: ArcLight Clean Transition Corp -- infrastructure?
  • TSLA: Tesla
 -- cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, Class 8 tractors; and flamethrowers

The screenshot at the link at twitter:

Sunday, January 3, 2021

Reason #4: Why I Love To Blog -- January 3, 2021

On December 4, 2020, I posted this as an update, EV Class 8 trucks at the Los Angeles port:

It's only a matter of time before the County of Los Angeles mandates EV-only trucks to service the San Pedro Harbor ports. The mandate will come when EV truck manufacturers tell Janice Hahn they can meet demand. And assuming the Teamsters agree. Career politician and politically connected. Really, really politically connected. 

Now this in The Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2020, which I had completely missed it. This was buried in the story:

President-elect Joe Biden, a supporter of clean energy, said he plans to encourage electric vehicle adoption and toughen fuel-economy regulations. 
In September, California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered that, “where feasible,” heavy-duty vehicles operating in the state must be zero-emission by 2045
Any truck going out of the ports of Long Beach or L.A. will have a gun to its head that it has to move over to cleaner energy,” said Jeff Osborne, an equity analyst at Cowen & Co. 
Truck demand is up amid a surge in e-commerce orders amid the coronavirus pandemic. 
To satisfy their immediate needs, companies have been buying up diesel-powered trucks, with North American sales in October up 83% over last year. The purchases mean some fleet owners will put off truck renewals another five to 10 years, so Tesla may have to wait for a shot at winning that business.

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Electric Class 8 Trucks Now At The Los Angeles Port -- December 22, 2020

This made my day. Just as I predicted earlier this month. 

I've learned that there are now electric Class 8 trucks at the Los Angeles port. Whoo-hoo!

 Re-posting a re-post, from December 4, 2020:

Think about this.

First, re-posting:

US ports:

  • Port of Los Angeles: busiest it's been in 2000 years.
  • ships wait to unload at Port of Los Angeles as imports boom -- Reuters;
  • US import boom is delaying cargo at nation's busiest port -- Reuters;
  • shipping container freight rates soar amid export boom -- Hellenic Shipping;
  • container shipping is booming again; probably won't last -- Yahoo!Finance;
  • it seems there is a trend here;

If you get the chance, wander down to the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach -- they share the same San Pedro Harbor. Notice all the truck traffic.

The Teamsters must be doing very, very well with these records being set. 

House values will increase significantly in the San Pedro, CA, area.

But this is what gets me really, really excited.

It's only a matter of time before the County of Los Angeles mandates EV-only trucks to service the San Pedro Harbor ports. The mandate will come when EV truck manufacturers tell Janice Hahn they can meet demand. And assuming the Teamsters agree. Career politician and politically connected. Really, really politically connected.

My hunch: there's at least three truck manufacturers that are preparing for this mandate. We should see the mandate sooner than later. And the specs for the trucks don't have to be that onerous. The trucks will only be local -- Los Angeles County, serving customers inside the county, and transferring containers to BN (Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway) and UNP on cargo headed outside the county.

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The Book Page

On Color, David Scott Kastan, c. 2018.

Chapter 8: Basic Black.

There is probably no more celebrated dress than the black satin sleeveless sheath that Audry Hepburn wears in the opening scene of the 1961 film Breakfast at Tiffany's. It is the most famous Little Black Dress of all time, even though it is  full length. It is also the most expensive. In 2006, one of the three versions that Givenchy designed for the movie sold at a Christie's auction in London for Ł467,200.

At the beginning of the film, Hepburn, as Holly Golightly, wears the evening dress as she exist from a New York City tax on an empty Fifth Avenue in front of Tiffany's. It is about 5:00 a.m. (and she has not risen early).

Her hair is in a high bun with a small tiara in front; she wears a rope of pearls, long black gloves, and big sunglasses. She stares up at the engrave name Tiffany and Co. above the closed doors and walks to the store window. She stands there, looking at the jewels, as she eats a pastry and drinks her morning coffee from a paper cup.

That's her breakfast at Tiffany's. I don't have to watch any more of the movie. That's all I need to see.

And like my epiphany with Catcher in the Rye, I finally "get" Breakfast at Tiffany's

Holly Golightly was born Lulamae Barnes, in Tulip, Texas, a real town on Farm Road 2554, about fifty miles northwest of Paris, TX, and, about an hour-and-a-half northeast of Grapevine, TX. Memo to self: road trip. 

She had married when she was fourteen years old, but at the age of fifteen ran away from her first husband and from rural Texas to try to live her dreams in New York City. Wow. 

Coco Chanel knew a good thing when she saw it. By 1936, the LBD was already a fashion staple, having been popularized in the 1920s in large part by Coco Chanel's iconic "Ford" design, Vogue, October, 1926.

With the Little Black dress, the color of funerals became the color of fashion, though fashion now made democratic -- functional, accessible, and black -- available both to the Duchess of Windsor and to Lulamae Barnes. "Ford" had become a fashion term, not just a automotive one.

And then this:

As matters of fact, the Chanel dress was no more the first LBD than the Model T was available to any customer in "any color that he wants, so long as it is black." 

In 1908, when the Model T was first produced, the car was available in red, blue, gray, and green -- but not black. In 1912, it was available only in blue with black fenders. Not until 1914 did black become its sole available color, and it stayed that way until 1926, when, ironically, Ford introduced color choices in the very year Chanel identified her black dress with Ford's once exclusively black cars. 

And that's just the beginning of a wonderful history of the LBD and the color black.