Saturday, January 30, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Late Saturday Afternoon Edition -- January 30, 2012

Wow, I'm in a great mood. What a beautiful day in north Texas. Shirt-sleeve weather. They say global warming will increase the average temperature of the earth by two degrees. I've long forgotten whether that is in Celsius or Fahrenheit. My hunch: even Greta has forgotten.

Who wouldn't like to see the average temperature of the earth increase by two degrees? Don't New Yorkers fly to Florida for the winter? Don't folks from North Dakota/Montana flock to Phoenix at the same time as the New Yorkers fly south? The Brits love their vacations on the islands on the equator off the Iberian peninsula and the north African bulge. They're not going there for the clouds and cooler weather. LOL.

Whatever. 

During the spring and autumn my electric bill runs about $55/month (I only have electricity, no natural gas). Except for about $20 for water, sewer, and trash, that's the extent of my utility bills.

I get upset when my summer bill (a/c) and my winter bill (heating) go over $100/month. We are very well off, financially and the utility bill is but an asterisk or a footnote in my monthly expenses. But I do get upset when I see my summer and winter statements. If the utilities met demand in the summer and winter like they meet demand in the spring and autumn, rates would be low all year around.

So I can only imagine how these utility statements affect those much less fortunate and living where the political "goal" is to see those utility bills increase. I don't understand at all why politicians want utility bills to go up.

I think about that often, but was reminded of it today when I posted the rates in New England and New York earlier today and yesterday: here; here; here; and, here.

After following ISO NE closely, I pretty much know at what point renewable energy maxes out; at what point natural gas maxes out; at what point nuclear energy maxes out. When those max out, the expensive hydro from Canada is brought in to make up the gap and/or coal and oil are burned. 

A reader brought me up to date with the following note about NYISO:

Earlier today, noted at the above link, ~4,400 Mw of power was coming from the three nuclear sites within the state of New York. 
One of the three plants, the Indian Point plant, which provides a steady, reliable >1,000 Mw, is closing in 90 days.

While there are alternative suppliers (two new natgas plants just north of NYC providing ~1,400 Mw), the gas fuel supply will be restricted and expensive,  somewhat similar to New England's situation.

It is absolutely amazing to observe the slow motion 'train wreck' situations that these political 'leaders' are creating for their constituents.

The reader adds this should not be surprising when telegenic ditzes are placed in decision-making positions. I'm glad the reader said that. I didn't want to have to apologize to any readers for being insensitive. [Not all ditzes are telegenic. Exhibit A: Bernie Sanders.]

Along that line, speaking of apologies, I want to apologize for insulting my readers. Earlier I talked about a "fudge factor" in the supply of oil of which I was unaware. A reader said that the "fudge factor" was common knowledge, implying (at least I inferred) that I was the only one who was unaware of that fudge factor. A huge apology to all my readers for wasting their time.

Please continue to let me know whenever I post something that is "common knowledge," things that don't need to be posted. I only have so much time to blog and I certainly don't want to waste my time or my readers' time posting things everyone already knows. See first comment at this post

On the other hand, don't bother clicking on the link. You would just be wasting your time.  You already know/knew about the fudge factor.

LOL. I have to laugh out loud thinking about that fudge factor as being common knowledge. It reminds me of Guy Adami telling viewers last week that the market plummeted because the volatility index spiked. Hey, that was common knowledge. Everyone knew that the market plummeted because the volatility index spiked. Who didn't know that? LOL. 

I think it's time for a bike ride. Or maybe y'all already knew that.

For The Archives -- US Oil Sector Going Forward -- January 30, 2021

This was posted a few days ago; I'm finally posting it for the archives. It will help explain to Californians why gasoline prices will start trending higher this next year. 

Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices can be tracked here.

500K Missing -- January 30, 2021

I'm posting this graphic for only one reason. There is a reader that follows this much more closely than I do. Every week the reader tracks the same metrics and was one of the few that has called out the EIA on "fudging" the data it reports. The EIA is forced to use a "fudge factor" to explain away 500K bbls of lost oil every week, plus or minus a few hundred thousand. I never would have known but the reader pointed that out about a year ago. And it's true. One can easily find the small print in the weekly EIA stats in which the EIA points out they need to place a "fudge factor" in the data to make the "books balance."

So, now this, from twitter this past week:

Macht nichts but this comment by HFI Research would have meant nothing to me had I not blogged, and had a reader not pointed this out to long ago.

So Many Story Lines In One Photo, One Headline -- January 30, 2021


Meanwhile, across the Pacific:

CBR Back In The News -- Warren Buffett Watching With Anticipation, No Doubt -- January 30, 2021

For investors in the rails, Biden is an absolute godsend. Whoo-hoo. 

Over the past week or so, I noted that three rails increased their dividends: two of the rails were Canadian and one was a US rail. I'm looking forward to an announcement from UNP in February regarding its next quarterly dividend. Six quarters without a dividend increase while others are increasing their dividends must be putting some pressure on UNP. We'll see.

From a reader, this link from S&P Global Platts: Canadian rails see CBR increasing on pipeline cancellations, uncertainty.

Takeaways:

  • Biden XL cancellation increases reliance on CBR
  • Canadian heavy crude proving to have resilient USGC demand
  • CP Railway finishing construction to ship more from Hardisty

Wow, I haven't used the CBR or the CBR_Canada tags in a long, long time. I can hardly wait to use the CBR_Minnesota tag again. 

The great news: BNSF has had several years to enhance CBR infrastructure. My hunch: huge job opportunity in western North Dakota as moth-balled terminals are brought back on line. 

This will help with CO2 emissions. LOL.

Another Bakken Well Disproving Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory -- January 30, 2021

17046: after being off line for more than year, back on line.

The well:

  • 17046, 306, Irene Kovaloff 31-18H, Murphy Creek, t8/08; cum 155K 11/20;

From the file report:

  • at the time, this was MRO's seventh middle Bakken project in the Murphy Creek field;
  • spud June 11, 2008; kick-off point reached June 21, 2008;
  • the curve took 55.5 hours to build (in 2021, operators generally build a curve in 12 - 18 hours;
  • required a sidetrack
  • target zone 11' thick
  • the curve was landed three feet above the target zone approx 10 feet into the middle Bakken;
  • the middle Bakken estimated to 28' to 35' thick at this site;
  • frack: open hole frack with681,360 pounds 40/70 sand;

 Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030145711474191042431344
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019001120000
BAKKEN10-201919055605
BAKKEN9-2019305216011073970198
BAKKEN8-2019316296221244650241
BAKKEN7-201931686637125533175131
BAKKEN6-20193066879513152829116

Update On A Nice Petro-Hunt Well In The Charlson Oil Field -- January 30, 2021

The well:
  • 17050, 391, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Mineral Trust 6B-2-1H, Charlson, t3/09; cum 184K 7/19; cum 213K 11/20; original frack back in 2009, 7 stages; less than 750K lbs of sand; a Three Forks well; a 50' flare if you can imagine that! Total horizontal section was 5,291' with 5,291' (100%) in the pay zone.

Update: back in late 2019, the operator noted a problem with this well; planned to re-enter/seek to repair. 

Graphics at this link.

Some observations:

  • this well is a single section well; spaced at 640 acres
  • it is a very, very old well by Bakken standards, drilled back in early 2009 -- over ten years ago
  • it is in a very, very good field, amenable to nice jumps in production with neighboring fracks
  • the Charlson may just be the best field in the Bakken
  • so, why was this well taken off line? Let's look at the map

See this note;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20203040173837206056754819647
BAKKEN10-20203145534811253544013838347
BAKKEN9-202030514950753225684966400
BAKKEN8-2020316760724237431003198150
BAKKEN7-20203958078946816109
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202832503823172752574844230
BAKKEN3-202021419137364316569755860
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-2019154456761358567590
BAKKEN6-201930902695157151513060
BAKKEN5-20193178987421016161259141
BAKKEN4-2019309659002931929163486

EIA Predicts Under New Administration, US CO2 Emissions Will Surge Over Next Two Years -- January 30, 2021

Link here.

In Case You Missed It: Demand Severely Outpacing Supply -- Chinese Flu Vaccine -- Moderna Requests Emergency Waiver To Increase Supply -- January 30, 2021

In case you missed it, in the most recent data provided by the CDC, the government distributed only 830,000 doses of vaccine; meanwhile, 1.7 million doses of vaccine were administered. Demand was 203% of the supply provided in the most recent 24-hour period for which we have data. If there's any hiccup in distribution of vaccine over the weekend, it's going to be a rough Monday.  

From last evening: 

Later, 6:03 p.m. CT: Moderna, apparently saw the same thing I saw today (see below). Breaking news now: "Moderna asks FDA to authorize five additional doses per Covid vaccine vial to speed distribution.
I don't know: adding five additional doses per vial seems to be incredibly risky.

See this post for graphics / spreadsheet.

This is Friday. This is the raw CDC data, no manipulation, simply the CDC data:


A

B

C

D

E

F


Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered






















 







January 29, 2021

49,216,500

830,225

27,884,661

1,690,979

203.68%

56.66%

January 28, 2021

48,386,275

1,155,325

26,193,682

1,541,048

133.39%

54.13%

January 27, 2021

47,230,950

2,836,875

24,652,634

1,111,640

39.19%

52.20%

January 26, 2021

44,394,075

2,975,750

23,540,994

806,751

27.11%

53.03%

January 25, 2021

41,418,325

6,775

22,734,243

885,588

13071.41%

54.89%

January 24, 2021

41,411,550

0

21,848,655

1,310,665


52.76%

January 23, 2021

41,411,550

1,519,150

20,537,990

696,269

45.83%

49.59%

January 22, 2021

39,892,400

1,932,400

19,841,721

1,392,433

72.06%

49.74%

January 21, 2021

37,960,000

1,969,850

18,449,288

1,924,007

97.67%

48.60%

January 20, 2021

35,990,150


16,525,281



45.92%

The Road To New England In An ERA Of Global Warming -- January 30, 2021

Link here.

The graphics:

  • New Englanders burning a lot of coal to stay warm --
    • coal: 5%
  • spot price of electricity spiked over $210 / MWh -- on a Saturday!
  • seems to have flat-lined at $120 / MWh -- wow; hope folks don't have to charge their EVs today;
  • it appears all fuel sources are maxed out; if more is needed, NE starts burning oil, sourced from overseas (previously posted)

Natural gas is only able to meet 50% of demand. 



This note was from a reader back on December 19, 2021. Because I was so far behind I did not have a chance to post this note.

I am posting it now. The numbers will be different now than they were in December but the analysis and explanation remains valid. I am posting it to help me understand the ISO NE charts.

The far right graphic showing LMP 'spot' pricing (~$100) also offers the option to see tomorrow's Day Ahead pricing (tab atop graphic, left corner).

The Day Ahead pricing routinely depictes - by far - the actual amount of electricity for which the producers get paid and at this (Day Ahead) price point.

The idea is that the ISO folks 'guesstimate' the following day's needs, and have ongoing open offers through which generators bid to provide the juice.

Lowest offers  - divided into 5 minute increments - are locked into providing that power at that price.

This can be seen in the very first, left side chart "System Load Graph."

The Green line is the 'Cleared' power, handled through the Day Ahead pricing/power need estimates. (Tomorrow's - Sunday's - Cleared Demand is <17,000 Megawatts at this time of day, as is shown on the LMP map, Day Ahead option).

The Orange line in the graph is the actual consumption in real time.

The 'Spot pricing' to which we constantly refer, (technically called Local Marginal Pricing - LMP) is applied to the difference between Cleared and Actual Demand, which is graphically  depicted as the 'space' between the Green and Orange lines.

Regardless of tomorrow's spot pricing, the Boston folks will be paying over $150/Mwh - wholesale -  for most of their electricity Sunday afternoon.

The Road To New York -- January 30, 2021

Holy mackerel! AOC's constituents paying upwards of $116 / MWh for their electricity. Link here. And it's an incredibly mild winter so far this year. They should have been storing all that excess electricity in batteries supplied by Elon Musk.

Friday Night Fugue -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 30, 2021

Some nights after midnight, I find myself wanting to escape, to forget about blogging about the Bakken ... I find myself surfing YouTube or watching TCM looking for pieces from a previous life.  Tonight is one of those nights. If you came here looking for the Bakken go to the sidebar at the right or scroll down.

TCM: TCM is simply getting better and better.

Ben Mankiewicz is taking this network to higher and higher levels.

I don't know if TCM will reach its potential in my lifetime -- its growth is very, very slow -- it's probably a low-budget network -- and, in addition, they don't want to change the flavor of the network too fast .... but wow, Ben Mankiewicz is doing things he probably never thought he would to do.
Brassed Off: I remember seeing this at a very special time in my life ... long ago and far away ... wow .. the memories ... It was from this movie I first heard the word "colliery" ... I had forgotten all about this movie until tonight when looking for something else ... here's a video clip, followed by notes from Wikipedia:

Concierto d'Aranjuez
 
Some comments at YouTube regarding the above:
  • This is, without a doubt, one of the best movie scenes filmed. The musical piece and Peter’s conducting were spot on. As a musician and singer, I am so proud of these musicians and the story they told of this painful time. Peter’s conducting was perfect. I cry each time I watch this, and return over and over to listen again.
  • Steven Spielberg said Pete Postlethwaite was the best actor in the world. I think he's right!
  • Pete Postlethwaite.... what a performance throughout this whole film. He was one of the best. RIP.
  • The music in this film was played by one of the top "real and genuine" brass bands in Britain, the Grimethorpe Colliery Band (whose own struggle the film partly reflects).
  • One of the best films ever about British social history
From wiki:
Brassed Off is a 1996 British comedy-drama film written and directed by Mark Herman and starring Pete Postlethwaite, Tara Fitzgerald and Ewan McGregor. 
The film is about the troubles faced by a colliery brass band, following the closure of their pit. 
The soundtrack for the film was provided by the Grimethorpe Colliery Band, and the plot is based on Grimethorpe's own struggles against pit closures. It has been generally very positively received for its role in promoting brass bands and their music. 
Parts of the film make reference to the huge increase in suicides that resulted from the end of the coal industry in Britain, and the struggle to retain hope in the circumstances.

Also from wiki:

JoaquĆ­n Rodrigo wrote the Concierto de Aranjuez (1939) for guitar and orchestra which was inspired by the royal gardens of Aranjuez (Spain) and became one of the most famous orchestral compositions of the 20th century.

I had forgotten how good this movie was. 


Which of course leads us directly to this one, another great British movie:

Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie, Chiwetel Ejiofor

And the "original":

Baccara



I Will Follow Him, Maastricht, The Netherlands