Thursday, August 25, 2022

Slawson With One New Permit; Zavanna Renews Seven Permits; Slawson Cancels One Permit; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 25, 2022

Crisis: link here I do not share the concern. The y-axis is compressed. There is a 20+ day of SPR supply and a 26+ day of commercial crude oil supply. Natural gas inventories are still within five-year range.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $93.05. Bellwether CVX was up $1.41 / share today, up almost a percent, trading just under $165.

Natural gas: $9.368, up slightly.

Active rigs: 46.

One new permit, #39200:

  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has a permit for a Voyager well in NENE 33-152-92; 
      • to be sited 250 FNL and 1100 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

  • Zavanna: seven Hunter permits, McKenzie County.

One permit canceled:

  • 37240, Slawson, Loon Federal 1 SLH, Mountrail County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37240, 0, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH,
  • 36246, 150, BR, Maverick 2E TFH,

US Economy -- August 25, 2022

First, the definition of stagflation again, three components:
  • high unemployment:
  • low growth;
  • high inflation.

US GDP, 2Q22: second reading revised.

The second-quarter decline in U.S. economic output was less severe than initially estimated and unemployment claims fell slightly last week, signs of measured slowing in the overall economy in the face of high inflation and easing consumer demand
U.S. gross domestic product contracted at a 0.6% annual rate from April to June, compared with an initial estimate of a 0.9% decline, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. 
One factor was an upward revision of consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of economic output. 

Jobs: 1Q22 -- jobs market more robust than previously reported.

  • government revisions to payroll estimates add almost a half million jobs in the year through March;

That means the economy added an average of nearly 39,000 more jobs each month for the year ended in March than previously thought.

It was hard to find words to describe how strong the job growth was over those 12 months, and now it’s even stronger,” said Heidi Shierholz, president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute. She said the change didn’t significantly alter what is known about the labor market’s performance.

Companies have added jobs at a rapid pace over the past two years, seeking to fill roles to meet strengthening demand after steep cutbacks at the onset of the pandemic.

The labor market is holding up betterthan many other parts of the economy that are buckling under the weight of high inflation, rising interest rates and shifting consumer spending.

Southern surge: it should be noted that the job growth will not come close to absorbing the record number of folks coming across the southern border. But as long as that's not being reported by the mainstream media, it's probably not happening.

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Southern Copper

A reader reminded me that SCCO paid its quarterly dividend today at a yield of 6.3%, apparently.

SCCO had a good day today, up almost 3%, trading at $50.63, with a P/E of 13 but well off it's 52-week high of $79. According to Yahoo!Finance it's forward dividend, $4.00 / year, yields over 8%.

And, yes, for the record, I accumulate SCCO shares for Sophia, her sisters, and her cousins.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

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New Water-Table For The Boys

The boys made it themselves with help from their dad.

For toy trucks now, but in middle school it will be where they do their chemistry experiments. 

My Montana Home -- August 25, 2022

Both of these articles on-line, today, The Wall Street Journal:

bike Going-To-The-Sun Road every spring before the road is opened to motor vehicles, generally between mid-May and mid-July.

Going-to-the-Sun Road is the only road in Glacier that traverses the park, running east to west over the Lewis Range’s Logan Pass. 
It closes fully during winter and remains closed to motorized vehicles while park road crews take on the monumental task of clearing accumulated snow. 
Considering the upper road can see snow drifts of up to 60 or even 80 feet, it takes until June and often well into July to fully plow. Before then, typically starting in late April or May, hikers and cyclists are allowed on the cleared sections of the road. This year, the road won’t fully open to cars until July 13, at the earliest. 
When the entire 50-mile stretch of pavement once again welcomes cars, buses and RVs, traffic jams are common. In other words, those few months in between the inhospitable winter and bumper-to-bumper summer present a rare chance to soak up the astounding beauty of Glacier’s scenic road in relative solitude.

Flathead Lake, feature, lakefront property; house

His guest house is bigger than my planned house on my lot. But I have a nicer location. LOL. From the article I can't tell if "they" are on the west side of the lake or the east side. Doesn't matter; both views are nice. They wanted a view of the setting sun and the lake, so I assume they are on the east side of the lake, facing west.


It's hard to believe my mom and dad left "us" -- the five siblings -- two lots and an incredible vacation home on the lake. The youngest sister owns the vacation home now but it's open year-round to all siblings. Meanwhile, I have an adjoining lot, bought from my mother, on which I never plan to build.

I will leave it for our grandchildren, our parents' great-grandchildren to do with the lot what they want. Me? I love the green space. I don't need another house.

 If AAPL shares trade at $285 in late 2024 as forecast by Gene Munster, I may re-consider about building. LOL.

Lots Of Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- August 25, 2022


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Safety Sewing Glasses

Energy: "Meaningful" Dividend Increases? We Will See -- August 25, 2022

Link here.

Television -- August 25, 2022

Only Murders In The Building: watching it for the fourth time in thee days -- the final episode -- episode 10 -- season two -- every time I watch it I see something new.

NFL: Thursday Night Football -- the only way -- out of area -- you're going to watch TNF is over Amazon Prime Video. Whoo-hoo. Link here.

For the past few years, the Fox Thursday night games have been simulcast by Amazon Prime. As of 2022, Amazon Prime is the exclusive home of Thursday Night Football, in addition to over-the-air channels in the two markets involved in a given game.

And while it doesn’t really begin until three weeks from tonight, when the Chiefs host the Chargers, the NFL officially debuts on Amazon Prime tonight, with the Texans hosting the 49ers in a Week Three preseason game.

NFL: Exclusive TNF will cost Amazon $1 billion / year -- analysts estimate the company will make $400 million per annum -- but it's the exposure from which Amazon will benefit.

The BR Phantom Ship Wells -- August 25, 2022

The wells:

  • 30817, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3C UTFH, Elidah, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 73K 6/22;

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20222822319223911950154542520042086
BAKKEN5-20223132590324652379371349683172445
BAKKEN4-2022301771317667109533097430163801
BAKKEN3-202231000000
BAKKEN2-20222827427451371168537619
BAKKEN1-20220000000

Other Phantom Ship wells:

  • 19102, Phantom Ship 24-22H, see this note.
  • 32427, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3B MBH, Elidah, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 84K 6/22;
  • 32428, loc/A, Phantom Ship 3A UTFH, Elidah, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 56K 6/22;
  • 36144 loc/A, Phantom Ship 3D MBH, Eliidah, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 72K 6/22;
  • 36145, conf, Phantom Ship 1B UTFH, Elidah, no production data,

Here's Another One -- They Just Keep Coming -- Bakken 101 -- Bakken 4.5 -- Huge Jump In Production After Ten Years; Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- August 25 2022

Almost every pundit / theorist says this is not supposed to happen. They've not read the "original paper."

The well:

  • 19102, 1,885, BR, Phantom Ship 24-22H, Elidah, t12/10; cum 540K 6/22;

Recent production: 18,381 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 46K over 30 days. Just saying. After ten years of production. Just saying.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20222615981157071642041781395391557
BAKKEN5-20221218381180622067344302427111275
BAKKEN4-20221225424310259325930
BAKKEN3-2022158580236823680
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20211000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20211492410301802387233220
BAKKEN8-20213124612608507597558980

Two Grayson Mill Banks Wells With A Jump In Production -- August 25, 2022

These are the first two wells I looked at today. I simply started at the top of the list and started going down the list, and these were the first two. 

The wells:

  • 22900, 3,660, Grayson Mill, Topaz 20-17 3H, Banks, t4/13; cum 271K 6/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20223060415938162451976019607131
BAKKEN5-202224976953840298993751
BAKKEN4-20221866765667691236120431
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220030000
BAKKEN1-202200590000
BAKKEN12-202129148015961193285128460
BAKKEN11-202130164116731281352235220
BAKKEN10-202131198119871752472547169
BAKKEN9-2021302190207317085341532615
BAKKEN8-2021312960328024066104607925
  • 22902, 2,404, Grayson Mill, Topaz 20-17 4TFH, t5/13; cum 183K 6/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20223023432297145662741271621
BAKKEN5-20229115114412984804
BAKKEN4-20221217216941873573489
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220020000
BAKKEN1-202200360000
BAKKEN12-2021308779001120199419910
BAKKEN11-2021305395551259171317130
BAKKEN10-2021316986801112246724634
BAKKEN9-2021305905551952164016355
BAKKEN8-2021316687239032557254611

LNG: Lake Charles Project In Louisiana -- Shell Signs 20-Year Deal -- Hart Energy -- August 25, 2022

Link here. Also, here. And, finally, a link not behind a paywall.

Energy Transfer will supply the 2.1 million tonnes of LNG per year to Shell for twenty years.

Link here.

Official name? Lake Charles LNG Export Facility?

Website here.

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For The Archives

A specialty sewing machine -- a serger can cut and sew two pieces of material together for hemming, edging, or seaming.

Our younger daughter picked up a "thousand-dollar serger" for $100. 

She already had one but likes to have a back-up when she needs to take her serger in for servicing. 

And it's something the two-year-olds can explore.

Link here

The brand-name, make and model, our granddaughter buys: Baby Lack Imagine. This particular model is discontinued.

In the United States, the term "overlocker" has largely been replaced by "serger." However, in other parts of the world such as Australia and the UK, the term "overlocker" is still in use. 

History of the Serger here

Throughout the early 19th Century the areas of Connecticut, USA and New York USA were the centers of textile manufacturing and machine production. Consequently many overlock machine companies established themselves in the Northeastern United States.

In 1964 Juki Corporation was formed; a precursor of the modern industrial overlock sewing machine company. Throughout the 1980s Japanese and Chinese sewing machine production came to dominate the industry.

California, China, And EIA Finally Updates Their Gasoline Demand Graph -- August 25, 2022

California archives:


  • likely to ban all new gasoline car sales by 2035, link here
    • a lot of folks think that Californians have until December 31, 2034, to change direction if it doesn't work out;
    • in fact, if the rules do in fact ban new ICE automobile sales by 2035, every public policy considered by California going forward needs to take that into account
  • the changes will begin as soon as the rules are published
    • first major rule change: all new houses to have charging centers installed
    • no more natural gas to new homes; all new homes must be all electric
    • major oil companies will need to start divesting their retail service stations
    • since nuclear energy is unlikely to be in place by 2035, expect to see a lot of coal-fired electric utility plants out-of-state producing electricity for California

China, EVs: oh, oh. Link here.

Gasoline demand: it took all night but the EIA finally updated their graph, link here.

Biggest Story All Week -- August 25, 2022

I just happened to come across this story while looking for something else. This blows me away.

One has to read to the very end of the story to see the "real" reason why policy was changed.

I always said that when the "Red Cross" runs short of blood they will reverse the policy. 

US military personnel barred from blood donation by "mad cow disease" fears receive eligibility. 

I was caught up in this decades ago when assigned to USAF bases in Europe: Germany (multiple bases); England, and Turkey.

Link here.

Second to last paragraph of a very long article; should have been in the lede:

According to the FDA, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused “unprecedented challenges” to the U.S. blood supply because of social distancing requirements and the cancellation of blood drives.

Background from the article:

Mad cow disease, also known as variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, is attributed to human infection with the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, likely from consumption of contaminated beef products, according to the FDA.

The rare but invariably fatal disease was first recognized in the U.K. in 1985 and subsequently spread worldwide. 

It also can be transmitted through blood transfusions from an infected donor, and there is no blood test for it. The FDA issued its first guidance restricting blood donors in 1999.

In 2020, the FDA lifted restrictions affecting people who had spent time or received a blood transfusion in European countries except the U.K., Ireland and France.

1985 to 1999: fourteen years. 

Forget About FANG. It's Now Triple-A -- AAA -- August 25, 2022

Link here to Motley Fool.

  • ATT
  • Apple
  • Amazon

IBD (previously posted), stock of the day: the new "buy" point would be a new all-time high --


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

CLR Drilling Wells In XTO Drilling Units -- A Random Note -- August 25, 2022

A reader had a question regarding XTO and CLR. See this post

For background, google xto sell Bakken

I'll tag these stories: XTO_Divest_2022

So, far it looks like XTO has not made a decision how to go about this divestiture. I assume XTO is "sharing" in the costs of drilling these new CLR wells, but not necessarily. XTO could simply be a royalty owner like any other.  

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Safety Glasses
>

With a family friend.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 25, 2022

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $95.29. Nice.

Natural gas: $9.362.

Active rigs: 46.

Thursday, August 25, 2022: 17 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 387 for the year

  • 38368, conf, CLR, Fuller Federal 2-2HSL1,
  • 38005, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-6,
  • 36641, conf, Hess, BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-6,

RBN Energy: Canadian natural gas prices experience another collapse, record discounts.

We’ve seen this movie one too many times. Just when natural gas prices are rallying across the world to multi-year or historic highs, another monkey wrench gets thrown into the workings of the Western Canadian gas market, imploding its suite of price markers. Last week, gas prices in Western Canada collapsed to mere pennies and even went negative for a time due to an unfortunate combination of pipeline restrictions and record-high production — a situation that will cost the region’s gas industry billions if left unchecked. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the root cause of the latest price collapse and when a turnaround might be expected.