Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Time To Watch Some Perry Mason -- And A US Supreme Court Note -- Off The Net For The Night -- August 24, 2021


I Need To Get A Life -- LOL -- But These Things Bug Me -- August 24, 2021

I have no idea why this site has not been updated. This is a screenshot from August 24, 2021:

In fact, OKE paid its quarterly dividend on August 16, 2021, in line with previous dividends: 93.5 cents/share (at least to the best of my knowledge that is accurate).

In addition, there are sources that suggest OKE's next quarterly dividend:

  • ex-div: October 29, 2021
  • pay date: November 12, 2021

OKE has not raised its dividend since January 24, 2020, and it was only a two-cent increase. 

******************************
Cryptocurrency -- Visa

Link to MarketWatch.

Why did Visa just buy a ‘CryptoPunk’ NFT for $150,000? 
The payments giant wants ‘a seat at the table as the crypto economy evolves.’
Visa says it doesn’t expect to be the last major institution to buy an NFT.

**********************
Playing for Change

Sittin' on the dock of the bay, playing for change.

An Oasis Spratley Federal Well In Alkali Creek Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- August 24, 2021

Previous entry:

  • June 7, 2020: watch this 2018 well hit 500K soon: #33524, maybe at end of 2020? t1/18; cum 478K 1/21; cum 498K 6/21; at 4,000 bbls/month, this well has gone over 500K bbls cumulative.

The well:

  • 33524, 930, Oasis, Spratley Federal 5494 44-13 3BX, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 498K 6/21; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2021304198406829341473313471602
BAKKEN5-202131487650543278151761443460
BAKKEN4-2021294106386425221166310864161
BAKKEN3-20212022352356149767956262115
BAKKEN2-202128425942492770118201117628
BAKKEN1-2021243808380520389960939537
BAKKEN12-202031470846282987134911275752
BAKKEN11-202030492848363186133651266045

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 17

For first sixteen pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

I no longer track these wells as wells that need to be followed up. 

April 3, 2021: #22041; an old Hess well that cuts right through CLR's Long Creek Unit;

March 19, 2021: this well and several others have just come off line and I can't find reason --

  • 18153, 647, Marathon, Brodahl 31-25H (2 sec), Reunion Bay, t9/09; cum 453K 11/20; off line 12/20, remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; nothing special; steady Eddy; 458K 6/21;

March 1, 2021:

  • 22418, 724, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-1, Cherry Creek, t12/12; cum 120K 10/20; remains off line 1/21 while neighboring wells are fracked; back on line 4/21; not remarkable yet; yet to see how it will do; looks good; nice well, but nothing remarkable, 6/21;

December 29, 2020: nice production but no frack data; was this well ever fracked? #33929.  As of February 9, 2021 no FracFocus data; a second bench Three Forks well; stimulation test, March 7, 2020, but no data;

November 14, 2020: #20669, #24713; two different pads; look at them both; on either side of a seven-well pad in the process of being drilled/completed; #24713 still off line; #20669 not remarkable; #24713 coming back on line; looks like it might be a good one; returns to production, much better but nothing outstanding;

September 22, 2020: #20995; four new wells cut right across this old horizontal running at 90°; see this interim update;

August 12, 2020: fresh water by mass only 60% in these three Enerplus wells; 10% produced water by mass used in the fracks;

  • 35600, SI/NC-->SI/A-->GL/A/490, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 199K 1/21; did not shut down; however, only 24 days in 6/20; a 28K month; from Fracfocus: 5.6 million gallons of water, moderate (almost small) frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 59.99% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%; cum 236K 6/21;
  • 35599, SI/NC-->SI/A-->GL/A/1,177, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 228K 12/20; did not shut down; 29 days in 6/20; a 34K month; from Fracfocus: 8.3 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.57% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%; cum 266K 6/21;
  • 35598, SI/NC-->SI/A-->GL/A/1,031, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 183K 12/20;  did not shut down, but only 10 days in 6/20; a 33K month; from Fracfocus: 8.5 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.66% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%; cum 217K 6/21;

July 3, 2020: the HBU Marmon Federal wells; particularly the parent well, #18143; unremarkable.

June 7, 2020: watch this 2018 well hit 500K soon: #33524, maybe at end of 2020? t1/18; cum 478K 1/21; cum 498K 6/21; at 4,000 bbls/month, this well has gone over 500K bbls cumulative.

 

Kraken With Four New Permits; EOG Cancels Another Nine Hawkeye Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed-- August 24, 2021

WTI: up another 3% today; up $2.00/bbl; trading at $67.63

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$67.63
8/24/202108/24/202008/24/201908/24/201808/24/2017
Active Rigs22*11646254

Twenty-two active oil and gas rigs according to the daily activity report. 

Four new permits, #38509 - #38512, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Fields: Burg (Williams); Ellisville (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for four wells to be sited in NENE 9-158-99: Jenna, Jenna LE, Alamo, and Maddie;
    • the wells will be sited 375 FNL and between 396 FEL and 528 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

  • Zavanna: seven Hunter permits renewed, section 29-150-102;

Eleven permits canceled, EOG cancels another nine Hawkeye permits:

  • EOG (9): nine Hawkeye permits, section 24/25-152-95, McKenzie County
  • CLR (2): a Bismarck permit in Williams County; and a Gjorven Federal permit, also in Williams County;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37288, 1,573, Kraken, Marcy 24-13 5H,
  • 34378, 1,658, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 4-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34375, 998, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 3-12H, Clarks Creek,
  • 34377, 887, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 10-12TFH, Clarks Creek,
  • 34373, 520, White Butte Oil Operations, Jore Federal 11-12TFH, Clarks Creek,

Wells of interest near #37288:

  • 21014, IA/472, Kraken, Marcy 1-24H, Oliver, t12/11; cum 194K 7/20; remains off line 6/21;
  • 22579, 466, Kraken, Marcy 2-24H, Oliver, t8/12; cum 165K 6/21;
  • 22580, IA/240, Krakcn, Marcy 3-24H, Oliver, t8/12; cum 150K 9/20; remains off line 6/21;

Saudi Arabia Update -- Recovery -- August 24, 2021

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves, link here. For last month, I think that was an all-time low in modern history, but this month a nice recovery, foreign exchange reserves in Saudi Arabia increased to 1672260 SAR million in June from 1639349 SAR million in May, 2021:

Saudi oil exports, June, 2021, soared by 123%, link to Tsvetana Paraskova:

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports hit a five-month high in June at nearly 6 million barrels per day (bpd) as the world’s top oil exporter and entire OPEC+ group continued to ease the cuts amid recovering global demand.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in June rose for a second consecutive month to reach 5.965 million bpd, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed last week. That was the highest export volume since January 2021.

Off The Net -- Going Swimming -- "Focus On Fracking" -- August 24, 2021

While I'm gone, consider checking out the most recent edition of "Focus on Fracking." This week's lede:

  • oil in longest losing streak since 2019;  
  • global oil shortage at 2,540,000 barrels per day
  • DUC well backlog at 7.1 months.

Let's Make A Deal -- Big Bend -- August 24, 2021

Disclaimer:

  • in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors;
  • this is not an investment site;
  • this site is for education and entertainment only; no recommendations ever given or implied;
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken
  • if this is of interest to you, go to the source.

Since this is a private deal, we will "never" know the bid / ask, but my hunch:

  • a cool one million dollars will be the ask;
    • and that may be too low
  • I have the piece of scratch paper (an old envelope) on which I did the math; will keep it in the archives;

From Hart Energy, August 20, 2021.

Private seller offering:

  • 80 net mineral acres
  • six horizontal wells plus five DUCs
  • operated by Slawson
  • average monthly income: $14,000
  • leased at 20%

From Hart Energy:

From the NDIC:




The wells, most of these wells run south; several run north:

  • 35206, 1,627, Slawson, Stallion Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t7/19; cum 349K 6/21; most recent month: 11K 6/21;
  • 35205, 818, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t7/19; cum 238K 6/21; most recent month: 12K 6/21;
  • 20203, 833, Slawson, Stallion 2-1-12H, Big Bend, t1/12; cum 544K 6/21; most recent month: 2K 6/21;
  • 35204, conf, Slawson, Stallion 8-1-12TF2H, Big Bend;
  • 20204, 743, Slawson, Zephyr 2-36H, Big Bend, t1/12; cum 261K 6/21; most recent month: 1K 6/21;

 

  • 36126, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 4-1-12TFH, Big Bend, 
  • 37218, drl/NC, Slawson, Zephyr Federal 4-36H, Big Bend, 
  • 36125, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 3-1-12H, Big Bend, 
  • 36124, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 8-1-12TFH, Big Bend, 
  • 36123, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 7-1-12H, Big Bend, 
  • 36122, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 5-1-12TFH, Big Bend, 
  • 36121, drl/NC, Slawson, Zephyr Federal 3-36H, Big Bend, 

 

  • 18364, 1,526, Slawson, Zephyr 1-36H, Big Bend, t2/10; cum 451K 6/21; most recent month: 1.5K 6/21; 
  • 18180, 2,561, Slawson, Stallion 1-1-12H, Big Bend, t2/10; cum 548K 6/21; most recent month: 0.5K 6/21 
  • 28220, 495, Slawson, Stallion 6-1-12TFH, Big Bend, t12/14; cum 222K 6/21; most recent month: 3K 6/21; 
  • 28219, 1,747, Slawson, Sniper Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t12/14; cum 372K 6/21; most recent month: 3.3K 6/21; 
  • 29151, 215, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 10-36-25TF2H, Big Bend, t5/15; cum 188K 6/21; most recent month: 2K 6/21;

Re-Posting Today's Look At Covid-19 -- August 24, 2021

Just plain silly. Even at the peak of hysteria this was viewed as silly: 

Oregon governor Kate Brown has imposed OUTDOOR mask mandate, regardless of vaccination status. This speaks volumes about the governor and the state of Oregon. Antifa has been complying with this mandate, like, forever.

The homeless are specifically exempt from mask mandates.

Interestingly, the latest surge has already peaked. This is the worst "option" the governor could have selected:

Meanwhile, the NFL: I'm watching the New York Giants / Cleveland game -- not sure if it's live or recorded -- doesn't matter -- I'm not going to watch any more of it -- five minutes was more than enough -- but the stadium was full and I'm sure "no one" was wearing a mask. This tells me folks are ready to "power through" Covid-19.  There comes a point when one needs to live life, not worry incessantly about death and dying. 

Re-posting below.

**********************
Covid-19

Time to take another look at "Coronavirus Tracker" over at The WSJ.

  • new cases: the southeast, from eastern New Mexico all the way to the tip of Florida, and north to Kentucky, is getting hammered;
  • fully vaccinated: slow-going.

Japan to expand coronavirus state of emergency to Hokkaido -- the northern island -- and seven other prefectures. Link here

Hawaii: corroborates my "feelings" regarding Covid-19 -- link here. A reader sent this to me asking ifit was accurate. My reply:

This is accurate (comes from a reliable site).

This corroborates everything I've thought about the virus and the vaccine from the beginning.

It will be interesting when/if journalists ever ask the "right" questions on this now that we've had a year-plus experience with Spanish Flu II.

So Much Money Floating Around -- Juneteenth, 2021

Crazy. From one of the more respected talking heads, over at twitter:

  • on the front page of The WSJ, Saturday, discussing a federal reserve signal pertaining to a policy action that is two years away! This highlights the extent to which markets have embraced the Fed-driven liquidity paradigm and, in the process, have disconnected from fundamentals. The WSJ headline:
  • rate-hike worries send Dow to worst week since October

So much money floating around out there. Exhibit A. Note, for at least the second time in the past year, this product is "out of stock." 

Greta's nightmare:

Three RimRock Two Shields Butte Wells Updated -- August 24, 2021

The wells (original note here):

  • 36398, SI/NC-->F/A, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-12-4H3U, Mandaree, t--; cum 44K 4/20; first production, 12/19; t--; cum 213K 6/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213189589008111452442822018395
BAKKEN4-20213097909787118561861216409368
BAKKEN3-202130925292071055316342136481087
BAKKEN2-202128983598651114317904148071439
BAKKEN1-20213112390123531370119337123985211
BAKKEN12-20203113507135441443020406127894844
BAKKEN11-20203014851148341646620543767411482
BAKKEN10-20203116174161891785119433119315966
BAKKEN9-20203015657156722080718058151761506
BAKKEN8-20203117350172952491018642158791460
BAKKEN7-20203117449173471896717883155861061
BAKKEN6-20203016842165623208916193125321218
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202023441182173380573148
BAKKEN3-2020311745817136551021710615563809
BAKKEN2-2020291572715354578461505713829551
BAKKEN1-20202394349537452211076171602827
BAKKEN12-20193174944433143890389
  • 36399, SI/NC-->ALK/A, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 4-24-12-4H3, Mandaree, first production, 1/20, t--; cum 20K 3/20; off line 4/20; back on line 11/20; cum 98K 5/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202131899889331311626086232141120
BAKKEN4-2021301025410281142062469322472641
BAKKEN3-202129984998211452222271187362160
BAKKEN2-20212810775107881463423640195532644
BAKKEN1-20213113297132621883323830138648499
BAKKEN12-20203114540143991999221462104357945
BAKKEN11-20202210192991015106743030203745
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200020000
BAKKEN6-20201781791047616131260181
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200050000
BAKKEN3-202092594481111927721040
BAKKEN2-202028902390174904361145285292
BAKKEN1-202025104071021853425723531533760
  • 36400, SI/NC-->1,013, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-3H, Mandaree, F, t1/20; cum 92K 4/20; cum 235K 6/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2021315193514636541660014201685
BAKKEN4-2021305713575538611578013808394
BAKKEN3-20212960416030484217326143041649
BAKKEN2-20212867666785535618025146071975
BAKKEN1-20213186458609708218816107576594
BAKKEN12-2020269013908762331380566565068
BAKKEN11-2020301215712213101541849275169321
BAKKEN10-20203113558136091329318235120454616
BAKKEN9-20203016124159921500717906152771227
BAKKEN8-2020221130611436118441254010627986
BAKKEN7-20203119973201301896720570179971099
BAKKEN6-20203023079238372287521668169322437
BAKKEN5-202019571016541679154018
BAKKEN4-20203023030230812933521628173292036
BAKKEN3-20203126765266533336623006174383321
BAKKEN2-2020282029520267410401747115102835
BAKKEN1-2020312230621896791601734675609014

One Of The Most Amazing Graphs Ever -- July 19, 2021

From an earlier post:

This chart simply amazes me: link here. Story here by Charles Kennedy.

How can a country make such a huge mistake -- they could not have seen the global lockdown coming, but that much oil that fast, under any circumstances? What were they possibly thinking?

... And, Oh, By The Way, No Super-Spreader Reports -- Sturgis Rally -- August 24, 2021

By the way, most pundits have said "most" cyclists attending the rally were unvaccinated and yet there's no evidence of any surge in Covid-19 since the rally, unlike what we're seeing in Oregon, one of the most vaccinated states in the union and the Covid-19 surge there worse than anywhere else in the US right now. 

This brings us back to the vaccination issue and super-spreader issue. But that discussion for another day.

This is what I find most remarkable. Not mentioned: disorderly conduct arrests and arrests for drug dealing was very, very low. 

Note source.


Stories We Might Get Back To Later, Part 2 -- August 24, 2024

For investors only. The usual disclaimer applies

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

US markets: on track for new records.

  • NASDAQ screams to new all-time record; reaches 15,000 for first time ever.
  • Chinese stocks come roaring back (think Cathie Wood).
  • S&P 500 hits new all-time record led by AAPL, others.

XLNX: link here. The NASDAQ is record-bound and two stocks are leading the way.

AMD: AMD is stealing market share from Intel, and it's not stopping now. 

WMT: opens local delivery service to other retailers. Gig workers driving Walmart grocery orders will also handle last-mile deliveries for other merchants. The question: why? Link to The WSJ

Renewables: turbine makers left out in the cold as wind power booms. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

**********************
Covid-19

Time to take another look at "Coronavirus Tracker" over at The WSJ.

  • new cases: the southeast, from eastern New Mexico all the way to the tip of Florida, and north to Kentucky, is getting hammered;
  • fully vaccinated: slow-going.

Japan to expand coronavirus state of emergency to Hokkaido -- the northern island -- and seven other prefectures. Link here

Hawaii: corroborates my "feelings" regarding Covid-19 --



Stories We Might Get Back To Later, Part 1 -- August 24, 2024

Cryptocurrency: is tracked here.

Cryptocurrency: biggest story of the day. Earlier (actually twice) I mentioned there will be a tipping point for cryptocurrency but won't post it, for various reasons. However, there were more hints today in news stories today. Here's one:

  • first link (also here): from a respected columnist -- a "maximalist" vision of bitcoin means every company will be a crypto company.
The latest move punctuates a particularly busy period for the digital currency, and crystallizes something that even its biggest critics have to acknowledge. Cryptocurrency in general, and bitcoin in particular, has been gaining major currency (pun intended) across sectors.

‌ PayPal’s decision is “a sign that every company will eventually be a crypto company — they just don’t know it yet,” Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, told Yahoo Finance Live in an interview on Monday. “And I think this trend is just getting started.” ‌

She was only half joking. In addition to the PayPal move, Wall Street is making crypto increasingly available to its clientele, while Facebook (FB) is also making its own ripples in the sector (albeit with a scaled-back version of its original grand design). Separately, trading platforms are clearly reaping the benefits of transacting in crypto (looking at you, Robinhood (HOOD)).
  • second link: Visa busy NFT of digital avatar tiwth mohawk for $150,000. The payments network shelled out for a CryptoPunk of a woman with clown-green eyes and "hot lipstick."

Visa Inc. bought a digital avatar for $150,000 in a show of support for a burgeoning area of investment in the realm of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

The purchase of CryptoPunk #7610 — one of a slate of digital avatars originally distributed free to anyone with an ethereum wallet — was made on Aug. 18 with 49.5 of the cryptocurrency ether.“We think NFTs will play an important role in the future of retail, social media, entertainment and commerce,” Cuy Sheffield, Visa’s head of crypto, said in a company blog post. Visa wanted to “signal our support” for people involved in the NFT market, Sheffield said.

Stories We Might Get Back To Later, Part 3 -- August 24, 2024

Oh, oh: Russia is pumping  a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden -- and it's not clear why. Link here. I'll give you three guesses and the first two don't count, as my dad used to say. If folks can't sort this out, they're either not thinking hard enough, or they're over-thinking it.

The Pemex fire: link here. Shuts in 421,000 bopd with no ETA for power restored to allow restart, but one source suggests sooner than later. Art Berman weighs in with a re-tweet.

Motiva: probably won't amount to anything, but Motiva reported several process units at its 607,000 b/d Port Arthur, TX, refinery shut down unexpectedly due to loss of power -- occurred at approximately 13:08 hours, August 22, 2021. Link here.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Continues To Climb -- August 24, 2021

Bozo: there's a Chinese word for American wokeness: "baizuo." The Chinese are using it to undermine America's moral standing on the global stage. Link here. Pronounced "bozo." I can't make this stuff up.

WTI: another jump, up over 2%; up almost $1.50/bbl; now trading at $67.11. And again, we're hearing two reasons why (despite dollar getting stronger). Link here for some background.

  • Chinese economy coming back; delta surge receding;
  • short covering

Dollar strength and oil: link here.  As noted earlier, CNBC erred yesterday saying the dollar was getting weaker.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$67.11
8/24/202108/24/202008/24/201908/24/201808/24/2017
Active Rigs2411646254

No wells coming off confidential list

RBN Energy: high propane prices fail to put the brakes on exports

The high-demand season for propane is just around the corner: crop drying, then winter heating demand.  This is when propane marketers make most of their money; so under normal circumstances it’s a happy time, when all participants across the supply chain are making last-minute preparations for the season of peak propane demand. But this year is different.

There is palpable concern in the market about the level of inventories available to meet demand, and the possibility that propane could be in short supply. How could this be?  As we have covered many times in the RBN blogosphere, U.S. propane production is more than double domestic demand. So how could a shortage possibly happen?

The answer is pretty simple: exports. The U.S. exports more of its propane production that it uses here at home. This year the domestic market needs more barrels, so all that needs to happen is for U.S. prices to increase enough to shut off exports, right? Wrong. Propane prices have been spiraling up all year, and August prices are higher than they’ve been since 2013. But exports are still running strong, and so far, inventories are not building fast enough. In today’s blog, we’ll look at the drivers behind this seeming market aberration and consider why the upcoming winter season looks like uncharted territory for propane marketers.