Sunday, January 24, 2021

Focus On Fracking Has Posted -- January 24, 2021

The lede:

  • refinery utilization at 10-month high; operating at 82.5% of their capacity which is remarkably high;
  • the EIA reports a record jump in gasoline production; and, 
  • December DUC backlog is at 14.1 months;

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US: Closed For Business

At least that's the perception for foreign companies as reported by CNN. A new CEO/CIC as of January 20, 2021, and the following headline, January 24, 2021.

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Lady Godiva

Lady Godiva is shutting or selling all of its 128 brick-and-mortar stores in North America. Its stores in Europe, the Middle East, and Greater China will remain open. Link here.

Vaccine Rollout -- Update -- Sunday, January 24, 2021

No additional vaccine was delivered to health facilities today (Sunday).

However, over 1.3 million doses were administered in the past 24 hours. 

Link here.  All raw data is from the CDC. 


A

B

C

D

E

F


Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered






















Januar 24, 2021

41,411,550

0

21,848,655

1,310,665


52.76%

January 23, 2021

41,411,550

1,519,150

20,537,990

696,269

45.83%

49.59%

January 22, 2021

39,892,400

1,932,400

19,841,721

1,392,433

72.06%

49.74%

January 21, 2021

37,960,000

1,969,850

18,449,288

1,924,007

97.67%

48.60%

January 20, 2021

35,990,150


16,525,281



45.92%





A

B

C

D

E


Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses

Number of People Receiving 2 Doses

Number of People Considered Fully Immunized

Percent (B+C)/A













Jan 24, 2021

21,848,655

18,502,131

3,216,836


99.41%

Jan 23, 2021

20,537,990

17,390,345

3,027,865


99.42%

Jan 22, 2021

19,107,959

16,243,093

2,756,953


99.44%

Spicks And SPACS -- An Update -- January 24, 2021

Link here.  

The companies in the chart below and their webpage tag or similar:

  • RIDE: Lordstown Motors Corp
 -- the world's first all electric commercial pickup;
  • FSR: Fisker, Inc -- Ocean (crossover SUV?), $37,499;
  • 
FIII: Forum Merger III
 --December 11, 2020 -- definitive merger agreement with Electric Last Mile Solutions, Inc, a deal valued at $1.3 billion;
  • GIK: Lightning eMotors
 -- powering fleets with lightning;
  • HYLN: Hyliion Holdings Corp -- Class 8 tractor trailer electrification;
  • 
CIIC: CIIG Merger Corp
 -- a SPAC; close to a deal with electric luxury vehicle start-up Lucid Motors
  • NGA: Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp

  • XL: XL Fleet Corp -- fleets, trucks; partnering with some big names, Chevrolet, GMC, Ford, Coca-Cola,
  • WKHS: Workhorse Group Inc
 -- focused on C-Series electric delivery vans;
  • GOEV: Canoo -- delivery vans
  • NKLA: Nikola Corporation 
-- Class 8 tractor trailer electrification;
  • ACTC: ArcLight Clean Transition Corp -- infrastructure?
  • TSLA: Tesla
 -- cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, Class 8 tractors; and flamethrowers

The screenshot at the link at twitter:

Reality Sucks -- EV Vehicles Still Account For Only Four Percent Of All Sales -- January 24, 2021

From the Taipei Times. How did we end up with this chip shortage? 

From India to China to the US, automakers cannot make vehicles — not that no one wants any, but because a more than US$450 billion industry for semiconductors got blindsided. 
How did both sides end up here? 
Over the past two weeks, automakers across the world have bemoaned the shortage of chips. 
Germany’s Audi, owned by Volkswagen AG, would delay making some of its high-end vehicles because of what chief executive officer Markus Duesmann called a “massive” shortfall in an interview with the Financial Times. 
The firm has furloughed more than 10,000 workers and reined in production. 
Companies appear to have been off in their calculations that traditional auto production was all but coming to a halt, and that new-era vehicles were almost here. 
In reality, talk of the death of the conventional auto industry has been premature. So were prospects around the technology upgrade that has been under way. 
Yes, demand has been down and slowing, but we have been hovering around “peak auto” for a while, with global sales of 70 million to 80 million a year. They fell 15 percent to 66.8 million last year. 
However, the expected onslaught of new-technology vehicles has not been as severe as the hype. Announcements of billions of dollars of investment covering electric to hydrogen and autonomous systems would have you believe that we have entered a new era of driving — or of being driven around. Yet electric and autonomous vehicles still account for only about 4 percent of all sales.

Something Different -- Lego And Star Wars -- January 24, 2021

Sunday afternoon, January 24, 2021: episode VII, The Force Awakens (2015). This was the first installment in the Star Wars sequel trilogy, following the story of Return of the Jedi (1983), and is the seventh episode of the nine-part Skywalker saga. 

Sunday afternoon, later, January 24, 2021: episode VIII, The Last Jedi (2017)

The question arises: is there enough fuel in the tank for another post-sequel sequel trilogy? 

From wiki

The Force Awakens, episode VII, was widely anticipated, and Disney backed the film with extensive marketing campaigns. 

The film premiered in Los Angeles on December 14, 2015, and was released in the United States on December 18, 2015.

The film received positive reviews for its screenplay, direction, acting performances (particularly those of Ford, Driver, Ridley, Isaac, and Boyega), musical score, visual effects, editing, and action sequences, although some critics found it derivative of the original trilogy. 

The film broke various box office records and became, unadjusted for inflation, the highest-grossing installment in the franchise, the highest-grossing film in North America, the highest-grossing film of 2015, and the third-highest-grossing film at the time of the release, with a worldwide gross of over $2 billion and a net profit of over $780 million.

Among films' box office adjusted for inflation, the film is the top-grossing sequel of all time in North America.

The film received five nominations at the 88th Academy Awards and four nominations at the 69th British Academy Film Awards, where it won the award for Best Special Visual Effects.

Two sequels within the sequel trilogy have been released: The Last Jedi (2017) and The Rise of Skywalker (2019).

So, there was the original trilogy, episodes IV - VI; the prequel trilogy, episodes I - III; and the sequel trilogy, episodes VII - IX. 

This was spread over 42 years, from 1977 to 2019. Nine films spread out over 42 years. Think about that. That's at least three generations around the world enjoying this franchise before it was finally completed.

Lego is going to make a bundle off its partnership with Lucasfilms
. Without question, Lucasfilms / Star Wars saved Lego from oblivion. From what I see visiting the local Lego store weekly (no exaggeration), this shows no sign of fading. Most remarkable, compared to smart phones, laptops, Apple watches, and tablets, the price points for Lego products are incredibly affordable. 

As long as I'm off-topic, I might as well add another interesting phenomenon about Lego: scale of their products does not matter. In the same "play area," one can see very, very small cars and humongous trucks but the characters all remain the same size, and no one cares. Some finished sets rival any other objet d'art.

Closer Look At A Huge Hess EN-Labor Well In Alkali Creek -- January 24, 2021

The wells:

  • 37066, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, 33-061-04618, Alkali Creek, fracked 5/28/20 - 6/5/20; 6.5 million gallons of water; 83.8% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20202548736968
10-20202645641469
9-20203001744685
8-20204138434128
    From the file report:
    • spud date: March 1, 2020
    • cease drilling: March 8, 2020
    • target: middle Bakken
    • logging services began at a depth of 8,110' MD at the base of the Tyler formation at 8:00 a.m., March 3, 2020;
    • the KOP was reached at 10:15 p.m., March 3, 2020 (14 hours)
    • the curve:
      • began: March 4, 2020, at 9:00 a.m. CT
      • build curve reached TD of 10,947' at 5:30 p.m. CT, March 4, 2020 (8 hours)
    • lateral:
      • began: 4:15 a.m. CT on March 6, 2020
      • center of the ideal target area was located 30' vertical depth inside the middle Bakken formation;
    • the overall drilling window has a thickness of 20' inside the middle Bakken formation with the base ending at 40' total vertical feet
    • the entire lateral was drilled within the target geological area except 270' that was drilled within one foot of the base target location;
    • two collision points deconflicted:
      • EN-Labar 154-94-0310H-1
      • EN-Labar 154-94-0310H-3
      • location for the intersection of the lateral wells are estimated at 8,304' VS for the H-1 and 11,409' VS for the H-3;
    • total depth reached at 8:10 p.m. CT on March 8, 2020 (60 hours -- 2.5 days -- wow;
    • 14 + 8 + 60 = 7.5 days from start to finish;
    • gas levels averaged 388 units with a maximum of 4,024 units
    • drill rates averaged 339.90 feet/hour but rounding, about 350 feet/hour, about half-a-mile an hour. Incredible.

    A Closer Look At the Huge Hess TI-Hanson Well -- January 24, 2021

    The well:

    • 36812, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-1, 33-061-04553, Alkali Creek, fracked, 6/21/20 - 7/2/20; 7.8 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass;
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20202548736968
    10-20202645641469
    9-20203001744685
    8-20204138434128

    From the file report:
    • spud: April 24, 2020
    • cease drilling: May 3, 2020
    • target: middle Bakekn
    • TD: 20,093' MD
    • logging services began April 25, 2020, 11:07 p.m. CT
    • KOP reached at 9,013' MD on April 26, 2020, 4:42 p.m. CT (less then 30 hours)
    • curve:
    • began on April 27, 2020, at 11:40 a.m. CT
    • completed on April 28, 2020 at 9:50 a.m. CT (about 24 hours)
    • lateral:
    • began on May 1, 2020, at 7:03 a.m. CT
    • ceased drilling on May 3, 2020 at 1:55 p.m. CT (31 hours to drill the lateral)
    • 30 hours + 24 hours + 31 hours = about 3.5 days, start to finish.

    Initial Production Data For The Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 24, 2021

    The wells:

    • 37066, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, Alkali Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20202548736968
    10-20202645641469
    9-20203001744685
    8-20204138434128
    • 36243, conf, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, 
    • 36812, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-1, Alkali Creek, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    11-20202548736968
    10-20202645641469
    9-20203001744685
    8-20204138434128

    Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week --January 24, 2021

    Monday, February 1, 2021:
    37066, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9,
    36243, conf, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH,

    Sunday, January 31, 2021:
    None.

    Saturday, January 30, 2021:
    None.

    Friday, January 29, 2021:
    None.

    Thursday, January 28, 2021:
    36812, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-1,

    Wednesday, January 27, 2021:
    None.

    Tuesday, January 26, 2021:
    None.

    Monday, January 25, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.

    • None.

    Sunday, January 24, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.

    • None.

    Saturday, January 23, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.

    • None.

    Reason #16 Why I Love To Blog -- Seeing Around The Corner -- January 24, 2021

    Updates

    Later, 3:50 p.m. CT: from the Taipei Times. How did we end up with this chip shortage? 

    From India to China to the US, automakers cannot make vehicles — not that no one wants any, but because a more than US$450 billion industry for semiconductors got blindsided. 
    How did both sides end up here? 
    Over the past two weeks, automakers across the world have bemoaned the shortage of chips. 
    Germany’s Audi, owned by Volkswagen AG, would delay making some of its high-end vehicles because of what chief executive officer Markus Duesmann called a “massive” shortfall in an interview with the Financial Times. 
    The firm has furloughed more than 10,000 workers and reined in production. 
    Companies appear to have been off in their calculations that traditional auto production was all but coming to a halt, and that new-era vehicles were almost here. 
    In reality, talk of the death of the conventional auto industry has been premature. So were prospects around the technology upgrade that has been under way. 
    Yes, demand has been down and slowing, but we have been hovering around “peak auto” for a while, with global sales of 70 million to 80 million a year. They fell 15 percent to 66.8 million last year. 
    However, the expected onslaught of new-technology vehicles has not been as severe as the hype. Announcements of billions of dollars of investment covering electric to hydrogen and autonomous systems would have you believe that we have entered a new era of driving — or of being driven around. Yet electric and autonomous vehicles still account for only about 4 percent of all sales.

    Later, 3:24 p.m. CT: This is not likely to be a short-lived problem. There is plenty of time for a new competitor to enter the field and challenge TSMC and Samsung. Chipmaking has a pretty high moat. From Automotive News, tight chip supplies could persist for as long as a decade. Wow. 

    China’s automotive-chip shortage could persist for as long as a decade, but it has little to do with the current supply glitches snarling production, according to the official who oversees the nation’s key new energy vehicle technology development platform. 
    Short-term factors like mistakes in ordering due to incorrect forecasts and factory disruptions because of Covid-19 will resolve naturally, Yuan Chengyin, general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, said. 
    Rather, China’s rising demand for electric cars, its lack of domestic technical knowhow and sustained geopolitical tensions will emerge as much more serious issues.

    I've run out of fingers and toes to count all the auto manufacturers who have announced plans to market an EV in the next year or so. 

    Original Post 

    Late last night I posted two long notes about semiconductors and the shortage thereof. Here and here

    This morning surfing the business news, only two stories caught my attention. This was one of them, from Reuters: Germany urges Taiwan to help ease "auto chip" shortage

    How did Germany lose its way? Why wasn't Germany a leader in semiconductor manufacturing? It seems with Merkel's focus on opening Germany's borders to Turks and refugees and pivoting to renewable energy, Germany completely lost focus. But that's another story for another day.

    Back to the "auto chip" shortage and the linked article:

    • Automakers around the world are shutting assembly lines due to problems in the delivery of semiconductors, which in some cases have been exacerbated by the former Trump administration's actions against key Chinese chip factories.
    • The shortage has affected Volkswagen, Ford Motor Co, Subaru Corp, Toyota Motor Corp, Nissan Motor Co, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and other car makers.

    *******************************
    For The Grandchildren

    Our freshman granddaughter had a project assignment for her high school engineering class. 

    At 11:00 p.m. (2300 hours) she began working on it. By noon, the following day, 1200 hours, it was complete.


    A child's toy.

    This is a 6-cylinder ICE undulating snake. LOL. The head is to the right. It appears the snake swallowed a swan (look at the tail to the left). 

    She must have used an electric drill to drill the holes through which the rods move. The eight rods each sit on a steel nut. The undulating snake is made from clay.

    An entrepreneur could package the parts and sell it as a kit.

    Samsung Eyes Investing As Much As $20 Billion In New US Chip Plant(s) -- Sources -- January 23, 2021

    Actually, The WSJ said only $17 billion and only one plant, but you know how these things go. First, one thing leads to another and before you know it, you're talking $20 billion and more than one plant. LOL. See more here.

    The WSJ article, was posted yesterday, January 22, 2021.  Data points (see this article also):

    • Samsung
    • as much as $17 billion to build a chip-making factory in Arizona, Texas, or New York (I think we can quickly narrow that list to two, and perhaps even one, pretty quickly);
    • looking at:
      • two locations in and around Phoenix
      • two locations in and near Austin, and
      • a large industrial campus in western New York's Genesee County
    • with the rise of the chip industry in Asia over the recent decades, the US share of chip manufacturing has fallen to around 12%
    • significant new financial help would be needed for the country to reverse the trend

    Much more at the linked story but enough to satisfy my curiosity and connect a few dots. 

    See this post.

    The last two posts caught my attention. I'm sure they caught the attention of someone else. To repeat:

    • with the rise of the chip industry in Asia over the recent decades, the US share of chip manufacturing has fallen to around 12%
    • significant new financial help would be needed for the country to reverse the trend