Sunday, July 6, 2025

Hunt Oil's Clearwater Wells -- July 6, 2025

Locator: 48682CLEARWATER.

The wells:

41234, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-1, Clear Water,
41235, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-2, Clear Water,
41236, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-3, Clear Water,
41237, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-12H-1, Clear Water,


40180, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-23-26H 3, Clear Water,
40181, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-23-26H 4, Clear Water,
40182, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-23-26H 5, Clear Water,
40541, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H 2, Clear Water,

19501, 254, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 1-24-25H 1, Clear Water, t9/11; cum 248K 5/25;

 

41239, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-1, Clear Water,
41240, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-2, Clear Water,
41241, drl/conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-3, Clear Water,


40547, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-3, Clear Water,
40548, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-4, Clear Water,
40549, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-5, Clear Water,
40550, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 2, Clear Water,f


The map:



Posted by at

When Asked: Who Wants To Decriminalize Illegal Border Crossings? Every Hand But One Went Up -- NYT -- July 6, 2025

Locator: 48681IMMIGRATION.

At the Democratic debates in June–July 2019, when candidates were asked if they would decriminalize illegal border crossings (making them a civil, rather than criminal, offense), all but one candidate on stage raised their hands. That exception was Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, who did not support decriminalizing such crossings and kept his hand down. -- AI.

Must-read article.

Link here. 

Article by Lisa Lerer, Jazmine Ulloa and Reid J. Epstein.The lede:

The Democrats onstage saw themselves as morally courageous. American voters, it turned out, saw a group of politicians hopelessly out of touch.

Standing side by side at a primary debate in June 2019, nine of the party’s candidates for president were asked to raise their hand if they wanted to decriminalize illegal border crossings. Only one of them held still.

Six years later, the party remains haunted by that tableau. It stands both as a vivid demonstration of a leftward policy shift on immigration that many prominent Democratic lawmakers and strategists now say they deeply regret, and as a marker of how sharply the country was moving in the other direction.

Last year, 55 percent of Americans told Gallup that they supported a decrease in immigration, nearly twice as many as in 2020, and the first time since 2005 that a majority had said so. The embrace of a more punitive approach to illegal immigration includes not only white voters but also working-class Latinos, whose support Democrats had long courted with liberal border policies.
Posted by at

They're Reading The Blog -- China And Russia Both Keeping Their Distance From Iran -- Neither Came To Iran's Aid -- July 6, 2025

Locator: 48680IRAN.

There are so many story lines here. I will come back to this later. 

Link here.

Posted by at

Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 6, 2025

Locator: 48679B.

The wells:

  • 40850, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 8TFH, Haystack Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251108835965
4-20251668430463
3-20252165829488
2-20252103136477
1-20251505523428
  • 40789, conf,  Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 4B, Bonetrail,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251636812247
4-20251801413189
3-20252190115682
2-20252075414134
1-2025100937038
  • 40787, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 3B, Bonetrail,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251644712002
4-20251513411698
3-20251984514725
2-20251834112539
1-2025118417924
  • 41310, conf, Kraken, Bubba LE 14-11-2 1H, Bear Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20253296168
  • 41448, conf, Kraken, Bear Butte 13-12-1 5H, Bear Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025332476
  • 41449, conf, Kraken, Bubba 14-11-12 2H, Bear Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025317220
  • 40864, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 3H, Rosebud,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251591313647
4-20252334121145
3-20253273429721
2-20252035316864
1-20252419513739
  • 40547, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-3, Clear Water,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025136417107
4-2025168647202
3-2025193915808
2-2025146944496
1-202559771209
  • 40689, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 2B, Bonetrail,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251600311716
4-20251672412154
3-20251804813345
2-20251735412080
1-2025133268877
  • 40849, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 7H, Haystack Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251095766555
4-20251637155312
3-20252393255116
2-20252494652733
1-20252959546132
  • 40888, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F XS 2H,  Haystack Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251432132015
4-20252137773600
3-20253147877554
2-20254001167403
1-20254917061972
  • 40865, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 4H, Rosebud,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251858917047
4-20252218519196
3-20253019127327
2-20251605812012
1-20252596014054
  • 40549, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-5, Clear Water,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025122966147
4-2025163855838
3-2025194075417
2-202584802644
1-202566721160
  • 40548, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-4, Clear Water, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025150218103
4-2025165907755
3-2025199526192
2-2025198227000
1-2025122492580
  • 41248, conf, CLR, Thornson FIU 13-28H1, Alkali Creek, npd,
  • 39547, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 5, Clear Water,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025111564459
4-2025181456065
3-2025223715114
2-2025190363857
1-202590411747
  • 39546, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 4, Clear Water,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2025152987380
4-2025158146000
3-2025192805102
2-2025154374966
1-20255063947
  • 39545, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 3, Clear Water,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-202560372668
4-202589093138
3-2025133153628
2-2025140593840
1-2025366126
  • 40886, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 10TFH, Haystack Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251431643266
4-20252331137854
3-20252598036269
2-20251501825230
1-20252007233251
Posted by at

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 6, 2025

Locator: 48678B.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 456 for the year,
40850, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 8TFH,
40789, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 4B,
40787, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 3B,

Tuesday, July 15, 2025: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 453 for the year,
41310, conf, Kraken, Bubba LE 14-11-2 1H,

Monday, July 14, 2025: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 452 for the year,
41448, conf, Kraken, Bear Butte 13-12-1 5H,

Sunday, July 13, 2025: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 451 for the year,
41449, conf, Kraken, Bubba 14-11-12 2H,

Saturday, July 12, 2025: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 450 for the year,
40864, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 3H,
40547, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-3,

Friday, July 11, 2025: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 448 for the year,
40689, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 2B,

Thursday, July 10, 2025: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 447 for the year,
40849, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 7H,

Wednesday, July 9, 2025: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 446 for the year,
None.

Tuesday, July 8, 2025: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 446 for the year,
40888, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F XS 2H, 

Monday, July 7, 2025: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 445 for the year,
40865, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 4H,
40549, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-5
40548, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H-4, 

Sunday, July 6, 2025: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 452 for the year,
41248, conf, CLR, Thornson FIU 13-28H1,
39547, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 5,
39546, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 4,
39545, conf, Hunt Oil, Redmond 157-89-19-30H 3, 

Saturday, July 5, 2025: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 448 for the year,
40886, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 10TFH,

Posted by at

Barron's: Why BRK Is Lagging The Market And How It Can Get Back On Track -- Sunday, July 6, 2025

Locator: 48677BRK.

Tag: EPD, SCCO, copper; pipelines, natural gas

Before we get started, a look at companies poised to join the S&P 500. Link here. 

Now, back to BRK.

A couple of days ago,  I posted a note about BRK / Warren Buffett being on the wrong side of history. See below, below the fold.

Today, Barron's discusses BRK / Warren Buffett and is much more optimistic than I am with regard to current state of affairs over at BRK. Barron's, as I read the article, is way too optimistic and way off the mark.

Barron's provides six reasons why BRK has lagged the market and is even behind its S&P 500 benchmark. Without question the authors have completely missed the mark. BRK is behind the market because Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett simply and completely missed the AI revolution. Their investment in Apple was not an AI investment. It was simply an "old school" investment and right now Buffett, et al, are resting on their "old school" laurels. 

Quick: name the top ten movers and shakers in the NASDAQ 100. Quick, name the ten companies that have a market cap of $1 trillion (or trending toward $1 trillion).

Now, name the top ten holdings of BRK.

Compare the two lists.

End of discussion.

Back to the ticker. "Old school" folks remain excited that BRK's return for the past five years is 165%. Yes, that is quite incredible. Really, really reassuring, but:

  • ORCL: 313%
  • NVDA: 1,420%
  • AVGO: 762%
  • PLTR: 1,360%

There's no way apologists for BRK / Warren Buffett can sugarcoat BRK's share appreciation in light of ORCL-NVDA-AVGO-PLTR numbers. Two of those (ORCL and AVGO) have been around forever and Charlie Munger, for all the reading he did, should not have missed them. NVDA surged but there was still more than enough time for BRK to jump on that bandwagon. I can sort of see why they -- Charlie and Warren -- missed Palantir -- but not really -- they have some of the brightest people working for them and someone should have seen Palantir coming. 

At the end of the day, apologists for Buffett keep talking about making that one big investment Buffett is looking for. They often cite BNSF. To see how. BNSF is doing, the proxy is UNP: up 42% over the past five year. Times have changed. It would be better to make ten relatively big tech investments and even if only one "hit," it would more than make up for the other nine that don't.

BNSF: one of Buffett's huge success stories. Up 42% in the past five years. Starting from July 15, 2024, one year ago, UNP is absolutely flat. Flat. And it's no longer a growth company. The best it has going for it (UNP) is its 2.3% dividend. 

Oil is dead money. Really, really dead money. BRK made a lot of money on OXY using methods I don't understand (warrants, etc) but once that plays out (probably already has) OXY is really, really dead money. I hope I'm wrong. I still hold a lot of oil stocks in my portfolio.

Warren Buffett will look like a genius if Apple / AAPL gets back on track but it's a two-edge sword -- if AAPL gets back on track, folks will wonder why in the world Warren sold so much of his only tech stock of note.

Right now, Warren Buffett looks like a stodgy "old school" mutual fund sitting back, enjoying 5 to 7 percent return on its cash hoard. 

Meanwhile, over the past five years:

  • ORCL: 313%
  • NVDA: 1,420%
  • AVGO: 762%
  • PLTR: 1,360%

 ***********************************
BRK / Warren Buffett Lagging The Market

From July 2, 2025, on the blog:

*******************
Warren Buffett: On The Wrong Side Of History?
It's Beginning To Look That Way

The S&P 500 hit another record high today.

This is starting to not look good.

BRK-B's benchmark: the S&P 500.

BRK-B:  down 12.5% from its 52-week high.

*******************************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.  
Posted by at
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)