Sunday, September 4, 2022

Focus On Fracking -- September 4, 2022

Link here.

  • US oil supplies at a new 19-year low;
  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve at new 37½ year low;
  • total oil + oil products supplies at a new 13½ year low; 
  • oil rigs drop most since Hurricane Ida; 
  • natural gas rigs at a 3-year high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy:

 Information Administration for the week ending August 26th showed that after a decrease in our exports was offset by a decrease in our imports and after a drop in the amount of oil pulled from the SPR was offset by a jump in oil supplies that could not be accounted for, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time in 7 weeks, and for the 24th time in the past 40 weeks.... 
Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 216,000 barrels per day to average 5,956,000 barrels per day, after rising by 40,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 210,000 barrels per day to average 3,967,000 barrels per day, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 1.989,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending August 26th, 6,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. 
Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly 100,000 barrels per day higher at 12,100,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,089,000 barrels per day during the August 26th reporting week

And yet other EIA sources tell us US gasoline demand is "down."

BR's Lone Beaver Wells In North Fork -- September 4, 2022

The wells, to the west:

  • 37925, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17MTFH, North Fork,
  • 37693, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH, North Fork,
  • 37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH, North Fork,
  • 37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH, North Fork,
  • 37696, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH, North Fork,
  • 16886, IA/359, BR, Lone Beaver Creek 21-17H, North Fork, t4/08; cum 182K 1/22; offline; 

The wells, to the east:

  • 38217, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 8-1-17TFH, North Fork,
  • 38161, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 6-1-17MBH, North Fork,
  • 38160, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH, North Fork,
  • 38159, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17MBH, North Fork,

The Whiting Miller Wells In Dollar Joe

The wells, sections 15/22-155-97:

  • 37411, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-2H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221800
6-20222099047589
5-20222562955842
4-2022479310616
3-20222688355888
  • 37412, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-3H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221479850396
6-20222217662813
5-20222014545765
4-20221672139599
3-20223290565819
  • 37413, conf, Whiting, Milleer 31-15H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221362555896
6-20221940759528
5-2022650316241
4-20221557641252
3-20222362156776

Of interest, immediately to the west, sited in section 15-155-97, also, and also running into section 22:

  • 37338, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221247251680
6-20221620059431
5-20221776849263
4-2022662516295
3-2022298367050
  • 37339, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15-2H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221231036366
6-20221562347500
5-20222103354019
4-2022774518187
3-20223069969225

Sited in 22-155-97, and running north, ending at the pad to the north:

  • 20594, IA/599, Whiting, Vance 44-22H, t9/11; cum 92K 10/21; off line;

Europe Natural Gas -- 2022 - 2023

September 4, 2022:


September 4, 2022
: OPEC meets tomorrow. Consensus: no change in quotas. Saudi will bow to Putin.

September 4, 2022, link here. We'll see; I don't know. I'm learning.


US natural gas production, link here.

NASCAR Playoffs -- September 4, 2022

September 11, 2022: Kansas Speedway.

  • Three races with "final 16 drivers" with next cut line at 12.

**********************************
DARLINGTON

Going into Darlington, the first race of the playoffs (this might be a dynamic link):

Results at Darlington:

  • Eric Jones
  • Hamlin
  • Reddick
  • Logano
  • Bell
  • McDowell
  • Keselowski
  • Bryon
  • Wallace
  • Bowman

Another Well With A Jump In Production -- September 4, 2022

From an earlier post, December 19, 2012:

  • 21513, 23, Whiting/KOG, Smokey 3-6-7-14HS, Bully, t2/12; cum 141K 7/16; cum 227K 7/22
    • This well was originally spud in late 2011 and completed/tested in February, 2012. For whatever reason (bad frack?) it never produced much oil -- almost dry. Then in early 2013, KOG requested permission to drill a sidetrack which they did. I assume they cemented off the old lateral well bore (but don't know for sure). The new sidetrack was fracked and is a nice well. Interestingly, the "new" IP is not provided. 
    • The well's original name was "Smokey 3-6-7-14H." The name of the new well (same permit/file number) is "Smokey 3-6-7-14HS." Obviously the "S" stands for sidetrack. This is a graphic of the well:


Now an update, look at the jump in production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202231386138287321592259148
BAKKEN6-20223048674924836294289243185
BAKKEN5-2022314755488211638116401159347
BAKKEN4-20222736253361121694249423613
BAKKEN3-2022314112416213958535653479
BAKKEN2-20222859025806135857997798611
BAKKEN1-20228116011485051622161111
BAKKEN12-202191037103323511637162017
BAKKEN11-2021301168116325341773175221
BAKKEN10-20218310310751109710889
BAKKEN9-202183193167539939894
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20202481293712852566248710
BAKKEN12-20193111241121210839573305559
BAKKEN11-201930113711022062429504205
BAKKEN10-201931117112862258554605453

Current graphic:


The wells on that five-well pad:

  • 37478, loc/A, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2HR, t--; cum 167K 7/22;
  • 37228 DRL/A, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, t--; cum 170K 7/22;
  • 37227 loc/A, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2H, no production data,
  • 21513, 23, Whiting, Smokey 3-6-7-14HS, t--; cum 227K 7/22;
  • 37365, A, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-3H, t--; cum 159K 7/22;

Ask Yourself: Why Do These Companies Have Such Low P/Es? September 4, 2022

Take particular notice:

  • Ovintiv (OVV)
  • Apache (APA)
  • ATT (T)
  • Phillips 66 (PSX)
  • Valero (VLO)
  • OXY
  • MPC
  • MRO
  • Diamondback (FANG)
  • Micron (MU)

For investors: look at Moderna, link here --

  • "cheapest" US stocks
  • cheapest P/Es over $10 billion market cap

One Liners (And A Few More In Some Cases) -- September 4, 2022

Tires and EVs:

  • gasoline cars: tires rated for 50,000 miles; folks generally replace at 40,000 miles
  • EVs: tires will be rated for 25,000 miles; folks will likely replace at 15, 000 miles

Neocons: they're reading the blog

  • I posted this on the blog this past week;
  • now this;
  • the clue: Liz Cheney vs Trump

Europe: rationing is inevitable.

Sweden, first; now, Germany: "inflation relief."

For investors: look at Moderna, link here --

  • "cheapest" US stocks
  • cheapest P/Es over $10 billion market cap

The Rings of Power: for diehards or casual fans?

OXY, link here.

Russia, sanctions, predictions: link here.

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- UNP -- September 4, 2022

Link here.


Mergers In The Permian -- September 4, 2022

Link here.


Permian Resources: Centennial Resource Development + Colgate Energy Partners.

REI closes deal with Stronghold. 

Permian Resources:

Permian Resources, the combine of the now-closed merger of Centennial Resource Development Inc. and Colgate Energy Partners III LLC, expects to deliver total equivalent production of 140,000-150,000 boe/d in fourth-quarter 2022.

********************
Ring Energy -- Stronghold

Link here, July 5, 2022:

THE WOODLANDS, Texas, July 05, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE American: REI) today announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire the assets of privately-held Stronghold Energy II Operating, LLC and Stronghold Energy II Royalties, LP. 

Stronghold’s operations are located primarily in Crane County, Texas and focused on the development of approximately 37,000 net acres in the Permian Basin’s Central Basin Platform. 

Stronghold is majority owned by Warburg Pincus, LLC, a leading growth investor.

Consideration for the Transaction, subject to customary closing adjustments, consists of:

  • $200.0 million in cash at closing;
  • $15.0 million deferred cash payment due six months after closing;
  • $20.0 million of existing Stronghold hedge liability; and
  • $230.0 million in Ring equity based on a 20-day volume weighted average price (“VWAP”) of $3.60 per common share as of June 30, 2022, all of which will be issued to the owners of Stronghold.

Back-of-the-envelope:
$465 million / 37,000 net acres = $13,000 / net acre.

Carlsbad Current Argus, July 12, 2022: 

Oil Demand -- Highest June Level Since 2006 -- September 4, 2022

Link here.


Meanwhile, gasoline demand: link here.
  • bogus?
********************************
See It In Real Time

Gasoline prices jump in Germany, link here.


*********************************
Time To Buy Housing in Europe

If the Americans are doing it, one can imagine what the Russian oligarchs and Chinese capitalists are doing in Europe. Link here.


The opening:
Laetitia Laurent, a South Florida interior designer, has long had her heart set on a Parisian pied-à-terre. 
This summer, with the dollar soaring and Parisian real-estate prices holding steady, she took the leap. The 42-year-old, who lives in Boca Raton, paid 758,000 euros, or $758,606, for a 460-square-foot, one-bedroom in the Golden Triangle—the prime residential and commercial area between the Seine and the Champs-Élysées, in the French capital’s pricey 8th arrondissement
“I had been looking for a place for a long time,” says Ms. Laurent, who plans to use the apartment for work when she visits Paris to source designs for American clients, and for vacations with her husband and three young children. 
What helped propel her from just looking to outright buying was the strength of the U.S. dollar—“a huge factor” in the purchase, she says—15% over the past year, hovering at or near parity since mid-July
The dollar is rising so much, and so quickly, that Ms. Laurent estimates she saved around $80,000 between the time she first saw the apartment in early 2022 and when she closed in July.

NASCAR Playoffs -- September 4, 2022

Darlington Raceway today.

Link here.

The round of 16 begins this weekend with NASCAR's oldest and most grueling speedway event, the venerable Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, a race and place that has been on the Cup Series calendar since its second-ever season in 1950.
The elimination races for each Playoffs round are equally challenging. 
The Bristol night race marks the end of the round of 16, the Charlotte Roval closes out the round of 12, and the flat half-mile bullring Martinsville Speedway, the last track remaining from NASCAR's first season of 1949, will determine which four will compete for the Cup the following weekend.

Chips -- September 4, 2022

Link here.

*****************************
Sweden

Link here.

Link to Financial Times, paywall. 

It's getting serious now. Sweden set up a $23 billion emergency backstop for utilities. 

Link to Bloomberg

South China Morning Post, no paywall. 

********************************
Artemis 1

Link here.

Awesome! -- September 4, 2022

Sophia and I watched the first two episodes last night. 

Sophia arrived late. I was already watching the second episode. Her first question: "Have they found the first ring?"

Sophia is in third grade, eight years old. She knows the story line.

She wanted me to start over, with episode one, but we continued where we were -- it was so good -- I did not want to start over -- we will start over later. She left at 9:00 p.m. to go bowling with her older sister and her sister's soccer friends. 

See the original post

This one story had a profound effect on my relationship with twitter.

***********************************
Classic Caesar Salad

Link here.

Alberta's Riches -- September 4, 2022

Link here.


Canadian dividends, link here:


Excelerate Energy -- September 4, 2022

Previously:

Jim Cramer's Picks, August 31, 2022.

RBN Energy, December 30, 2014:

The RBN Energy story by Housley Carr down below  was posted early on the morning of December 30, 2014. Later that afternoon Reuters was reporting that Excelerate Energy's Texan liquefied natural gas terminal plan has become the first victim of an oil price slump threatening the economics of U.S. LNG export projects.

A halving in the oil price since June has upended assumptions by developers that cheap U.S. LNG would muscle into high-value Asian energy markets, which relied on oil prices staying high to make the U.S. supply affordable.
The floating 8 million tonne per annum (mtpa) export plant moored at Lavaca Bay, Texas advanced by Houston-based Excelerate has been put on hold.
The project was initially due to begin exports in 2018.
Excelerate's move bodes ill for thirteen other U.S. LNG projects, which have also not signed up enough international buyers, to reach a final investment decision (FID). Only Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Sempra's Cameron LNG projects have hit that milestone. 

Now:
This morning, September 4, 2022:


Excelerate Energy webpage.

Hart Energy, link here.

IPO:

Inaugural quarterly cash dividend:

Initial Production Data For Wells Cominig Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 4, 2022

The wells:

  • 37693, conf,  BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 29782, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 2H, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
  • 37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH, North Fork, no production data,
  • 37828, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 37367, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 29781, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
  • 37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH, North Fork, no production data, 
  • 37368, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-3H, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 35442, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23H, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20222533225610
6-20222511024122
5-20221099511463
4-202236602218
3-202233632538
  • 38007, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-202279330
6-20221157331121
5-20221528626198
4-2022508613151
3-20222262424996
  • 37369, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-2H, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 37370, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-2H, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 37413, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221362555896
6-20221940759528
5-2022650316241
4-20221557641252
3-20222362156776
  • 37412, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-3H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221479850396
6-20222217662813
5-20222014545765
4-20221672139599
3-20223290565819
  • 37411, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-2H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221800
6-20222099047589
5-20222562955842
4-2022479310616
3-20222688355888
  • 38006, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-202299370
6-20221364429834
5-20221284124726
4-202265837727
3-2022251581792
  • 37371, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-1HS, East Tioga, no production data, 
  • 37372, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-1HS, East Tioga, no production data,
  • 35443, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23TFH, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221271814920
6-20221744413619
5-20221786419431
4-20221810816448
3-20221327812657
  • 36643, conf, Hess, BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-4, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2022208990
6-20222306759226
5-20221915234256
4-20222004029491
3-20224279449453
  • 37339, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15-2H, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20221231036366
6-20221562347500
5-20222103354019
4-2022774518187
3-20223069969225
  • 35444, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23HU, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2022794814924
6-20221316024299
5-20222161026266
4-20222214815938
3-20222429519437

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 4, 2022

Wednesday, September 14, 2022: 23 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 412 for the year
37693, conf,  BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH,
29782, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 2H,

Tuesday, September 13, 2022: 21 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 410 for the year
37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH,

Monday, September 12, 2022: 20 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 409 for the year
37828, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW,
37367, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H,
29781, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH,

Sunday, September 11, 2022: 17 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 406 for the year
37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH,
37368, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-3H
35442, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23H,

Saturday, September 10, 2022: 14 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 403 for the year
38007, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5,
37369, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-2H,

Friday, September 9, 2022: 12 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 401 for the year
37370, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-2H,

Thursday, September 8, 2022: 11 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 400 for the year
37413, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15H,
37412, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-3H,
37411, conf, Whiting, Miller 31-15-2H,

Wednesday, September 7, 2022: 8 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 397 for the year
38006, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5,
37371, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-1HS,

Tuesday, September 6, 2022: 6 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 395 for the year
37372, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-1HS,

Monday, September 5, 2022: 5 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 394 for the year
35443, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23TFH,

Sunday, September 4, 2022: 4 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 393 for the year
36643, conf, Hess, BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-4,

Saturday, September 3, 2022: 3 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 392 for the year
37339, conf, Whiting, Ark 21-15-2H,
35444, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23HU,

Laser-Focused On Dividends -- SLB -- September 4, 2022

Link here.