Shell To Sell $1 Billion Of Western Canadian Assets -- October 21, 2016

Rasmussen's daily poll:

A new high of 88% of voters now say they are certain how they will vote in this election. Among these voters, it’s Trump 48%, Clinton 47%, Johnson three percent (3%) and Stein two percent (2%). Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Trump 38%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 21% and Stein 16%.

Unemployment rose in 3 of 8 swing states last month: US News. Employers cut jobs in four swing states and added them in three, with job totals flat in New Hampshire.

Tesla's self-driving software (see below): I assume that once the car becomes available you can give the "keys" to your 12-year-old kids when they need to go to soccer or water polo. Wow, what a great country. 

Shell to sell $1 billion of west Canadian assets: story here. 

Shell said Thursday it would sell developed and undeveloped acreage in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia to Calgary-based Tourmaline Oil Corp. Those assets currently produce dry gas and natural-gas liquids equivalent to 24,850 barrels a day of oil.

The deal comes as Shell seeks to shed $30 billion assets world-wide after its $50 billion acquisition of BG Group PLC in February. It represents a further retrenchment for Shell in Canada, where a year ago it shelved plans for a major new oil-sands project and took a $2 billion write-down.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	10/21/2016	10/21/2015	10/21/2014	10/21/2013	10/21/2012
Active Rigs	33	68	191	182	186

RBN Energy: new crude oil pipelines and new diluent pipelines and storage capacity in Alberta. The series continues.

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Some Things Never Cease To Amaze Me

Some months ago, maybe it's been a year now, I decided to "figure out" Scotch. Except on very, very rare occasions -- in fact, I remember only once, and that was when I was in northern England, near Scotland -- do I recall tasting/comparing Scotch whisky before this past year.

After a year of reading several books on the subject, and tasting about 15 different "brands," I have a pretty good idea of what Scotch is all about. I probably know as much about Scotch as I know about the Bakken, that is to say, about 1% of all there is to know, and that may be a stretch.

Having said that, in today's Wall Street Journal: Irish whiskey barrels ahead -- rising demand has turned Irish whiskey into the world's fastest-growing major spirit. [Note: Scottish whisky -- without the "e" and Irish whiskey with the "e" is generally the correct spelling.]

The curiosity surrounding the Teeling Whiskey Co., which opened last year, is part of a larger wave of interest in Irish whiskey that has new ventures mushrooming across the Emerald Isle. There are now 16 distilleries in Ireland and Northern Ireland, up from four just three years ago, according to the Irish Whiskey Association. Eleven more are planned.

The spirit—which must be made only in the Republic of Ireland or Northern Ireland—jumped 131% by volume globally during the past decade, easily trumping rises of 13% for Scotch whisky and 56% for bourbon during the same period.

I had read earlier that whisky/whiskey/bourbon were making a comeback but I was amazed to see these figures:

• for Irish whiskey: up 113% over the past decade
• for Scotch whisky: up 13% over the past decade
• for bourbon: up 56% over the past decade  

Much of the Irish whiskey growth is driven by Jameson which accounts for 67% of global volumes. In the US Jameson holds 785 of the Irish whiskey market.

The "percent increases" can be taken out of context; one also needs to know the denominator, and in this case, worldwide sales:

• for Irish whiskey: less than 8 million cases
• for Scotch whisky: almost 100 million cases
• for bourbon: 20 million cases

As for me, my "Scotch" phase has pretty much ended. I have now found the "brand" I prefer, and I occasionally have an ounce of Scotch with two ice cubes with herring or sushi, but that's about it. I don't recall every having tasted Jameson; I may have to taste it to compare to the others I've tasted. I'll see. Probably not, at least not any time soon.

My "martini" phase is also over but I still enjoy an occasional martini at home. I haven't had a martini with sushi since our favorite waitress left our favorite sushi restaurant about six months ago to get married in Louisiana.

I went through a very, very short period when I was trying to figure out mezcal and tequila. Neither impressed me.

But I digress. Time to move on.

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The Market

 
Mid-day trading: some recovery; the market is only down about 40 points. NYSE:

• new highs: 46 -- Arch Coal (of all things); SandRidge Energy (wow);
• new lows: 23

Open: another miserable day -- the Dow 30 opens almost 100 points in the red. Lead story over at Yahoo!Finance -- another story about "pain" for restaurants -- low grocery prices and changing consumer habits are slowing sales (McDonald's, apparently, did not get the menu -- see below). The story is hardly worth reading; not much there. Tesla remains under pressure and under $200 after it announced that it will place self-driving hardware (something like one radar unit; one sonar unit; and eight cameras) on every new vehicle for free. But to turn on the software -- when it becomes available -- will cost .... $8,000. Musk Melon says that one can offset the cost of the software by "allowing" the car to be used as a "ride-hailing service" while you work at the office or watch television at night, or something to that effect. 

Tesla Motors Inc. said it plans to charge buyers of its newest cars $8,000 to activate autonomous-driving technology, hinting those who do would be able to offset the cost through a ride-hailing network similar to Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc.

McDonald's earnings top expectations. Story here. 

• better than expected
• shares up 3.5% in pre-market trading but had been down 13% over past three months
• sales rose 3.5% in existing restaurants, handily beating the 1.5% growth expected

GE reports EPS in-line; misses on revenue.

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Connecting The Dots

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy remains one of my favorite movies. I have always been intrigued by the names chosen by the author, e.g., Toby Esterhase. I've read thoughts from various bloggers about the "meaning" or origin of that name.

Then, out of the blue, reading something about the Dreyfus affair the other day, I was reminded again that Dreyfus had been wrongly accused; the real spy had been Ferdinand Walsin Esterhazy.

There may be no connection whatsoever between the John le Carré character but the names certainly pique one's interest. Both spies. Both self-serving. Both eastern European. I love it.

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Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution

Nathaniel Philbrick

c. 2016

DDS: 973.4 PHI

Chapter 10

The Chasm

Begins in NYC: after three years of British occupation, a hellhole.

Arnold meets with Joseph Stansbury, a British loyalist. Will begin work with the Brits.

Arnold, meanwhile, prepares for his court-martial at the Continental army's headquarters in Middlebrook, NJ.

Nathaniel Greene invites Arnold to visit. Benedict Arnold not only turned on his country; he turned on his very close friend Greene.

Arnold gets off with a "rebuke," a term used by Geo Washington, but the court martial was yet to proceed.

Now, the spring of 1779. Henry Clinton still stuck in NYC; looking toward West Point, about 60 miles up the Hudson. If he could control West Point, he could control the Hudson and that might win him the war.

Arnold had told Clinton that Geo Washington was also planning to move to West Point -- enough intel to help Clinton move. Unfortunately for Arnold, Washington learned of Clinton's move (6,000 troops and a fleet of more than 200 ships on the Hudson) and postponed his plans for West Point, instead, moving his army into the region between the newly taken British positions and West Point.

Instead of returning to Philadelphia (where he had been governor), he moved to nearby Morristown, NJ, to "wait events."

Arnold, deeper into treasonous plans, egged on by his wife.

Colonists with two minor victories but enough to show that rebels were still a force to be reckoned with.

Washington stymied in plans to take NYC because French not able to support at that time.

October 4, 1779: hostilities come to a head in Philadelphia between radical Constitutionalists and the conservative Republicans. Exploded into violence. Reed brings it to an end; Arnold shows up but is inconsequential.

But now with Philadelphia Continental soldiers and Pennsylvania militiamen killing each other, Arnold felt it was time to "join" the Brits.

December 3, 1779: Arnold provides Stansbury with a long list of information. Benedict Arnold's court martial still pending. It was scheduled to be held one month later, so Benedict Arnold had to act fast.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Alliteration

The Princeton Dante Project.

From the introduction, page xvii, Robert Hollander & Jean Hollander's verse translation of Dante's The Inferno, c. 2000, DDS 851.1 DAN:

Dante seems completely aware of the radical newness of a lady loaded with such lofty theological meaning in the tradition of vernacular poetry of love. 

From wiki:

In Greco-Roman mythology, Aeneas (possibly derived from Greek αἰνή meaning "praised") was a Trojan hero, the son of the prince Anchises and the goddess Venus (Aphrodite). 

His father was a first cousin of King Priam of Troy (both being grandsons of Ilus, founder of Troy), making Aeneas a second cousin to Priam's children (such as Hector and Paris).

He is a character in Greek mythology and is mentioned in Homer's Iliad.
Aeneas receives full treatment in Roman mythology, most extensively in Virgil's Aeneid where he is an ancestor of Romulus and Remus. He became the first true hero of Rome.