Wednesday, June 28, 2017

"Energy Week" In DC - Harold Hamm Expands NG Deal With SK; Lithuania: Helping To Make The US Great Again; The Energy Page, Continued -- T+159 -- June 28, 2017

Over at "The Big Stories," I have a link to "LNG Exports." The first post was dated October 4, 2015. We all expected the LNG story to be a big story, but I think it is growing much faster than anyone expected. And here's another story, showing just how far-reaching Cheniere Energy is. From Zacks:
  • new deal linked between Cheniere Energy and Lithuania
  • another effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy giant Gazprom
  • Lithuania is recommending neighboring countries to do the same
  • Lithuania created a floating LNG terminal along the Baltic Sea coast in 2014
  • also imports natural gas from Norway's Statoil
  • this is the first LNG deal that Lithuania has signed with the US
  • this will help propel the US to become the world's largest LNG supplier by 2035, leapfrogging both Australia (problems of its own) and Qatar (even bigger problems)
  • and, The New York Times might note: the LNG to Lithuania does not have to go through the Panama Canal
Later, CLR / Harold Hamm will expand deal with South Korea for natural gas.
Under the backdrop of "Energy Week" in Washington, Continental Resources and SK E&S of South Korea announced they will sign a memorandum of understanding Wednesday which expands their existing joint development agreement to consider pursuing other opportunities with US shale plays, including the development and exporting of liquid natural gas. 
The Graphic Page

The fossil fuel statistics are simply staggering. Again, look at these figures just released today:
But note this: OPEC (and others) keep talking about the 5-year average. The 5-year average is no longer "valid" after the two-year Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016 and similar surge in US shale. One needs to use the 10-year average which I have mentioned many, many times. I see that John Kemp also uses the ten-year average -- at least in this tweet.

And look at that 10-year comparison: US distillate fuel oil stocks are up over 23 million bbls. That is simply staggering. The number is so staggering, the 10-year average cannot even be placed on the graph above.

US gasoline inventories: the same holds true for gasoline (compare the next chart with the chart above -- see if you can spot any differences -- I could not):

US crude oil: and to complete the picture, the US crude oil inventories graphic -- third verse, same as the first:

Henry The 8th, I Am, Herman's Hermits

Glut: reported earlier but with sketchy data. The data and associated analyses are now coming in and things don't look good. From Oil & Gas Journal, regarding US crude oil inventories:
  • EIA: the increase was only 100,000 bbls
  • API: the increase was actually 800,000 bbls (in my earlier post, I used the 851,000-bbl figure intially reported; when I get time, I have corrected it to the new EIA number)
  • EIA: US crude oil inventories stand at 509.2  -- upper half of the average range for this time of year
  • EIA: total motor gasoline fell 900,000 bbls last week but inventories still remain above the upper limit of the average range

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