Locator: 48696CHIPS.
Updates
July 20, 2025: link here.
Original Post
Link here. The Buffett Indicator: at its highest level ever. Ever.
Charts:
Five-day:
One-month:
Five-year:
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Re-Posting
A couple of days ago, I posted a note about BRK / Warren Buffett being on the wrong side of history. See below, below the fold.
Today, Barron's discusses BRK / Warren Buffett and is much more optimistic than I am with regard to current state of affairs over at BRK. Barron's, as I read the article, is way too optimistic and way off the mark.
Barron's provides
six reasons why BRK has lagged the market and is even behind its
S&P 500 benchmark. Without question the authors have completely
missed the mark. BRK is behind the market because Charlie Munger and
Warren Buffett simply and completely missed the AI revolution. Their
investment in Apple was not an AI investment. It was simply an "old
school" investment and right now Buffett, et al, are resting on their
"old school" laurels.
Quick: name the top ten movers and shakers in the NASDAQ 100. Quick, name the ten companies that have a market cap of $1 trillion (or trending toward $1 trillion).
Now, name the top ten holdings of BRK.
Compare the two lists.
End of discussion.
Back
to the ticker. "Old school" folks remain excited that BRK's return for
the past five years is 165%. Yes, that is quite incredible. Really,
really reassuring, but:
- ORCL: 313%
- NVDA: 1,420%
- AVGO: 762%
- PLTR: 1,360%
There's no way apologists for BRK / Warren Buffett can sugarcoat BRK's share appreciation in light of ORCL-NVDA-AVGO-PLTR numbers. Two of those (ORCL and AVGO) have been around forever and Charlie Munger, for all the reading he did, should not have missed them. NVDA surged but there was still more than enough time for BRK to jump on that bandwagon. I can sort of see why they -- Charlie and Warren -- missed Palantir -- but not really -- they have some of the brightest people working for them and someone should have seen Palantir coming.
At the end of the day, apologists for Buffett keep talking about making that one big investment Buffett is looking for. They often cite BNSF. To see how. BNSF is doing, the proxy is UNP: up 42% over the past five year. Times have changed. It would be better to make ten relatively big tech investments and even if only one "hit," it would more than make up for the other nine that don't.
BNSF: one of Buffett's huge success stories. Up 42% in the past five years. Starting from July 15, 2024, one year ago, UNP is absolutely flat. Flat. And it's no longer a growth company. The best it has going for it (UNP) is its 2.3% dividend.
Oil is dead money. Really, really dead money. BRK made a lot of money on OXY using methods I don't understand (warrants, etc) but once that plays out (probably already has) OXY is really, really dead money. I hope I'm wrong. I still hold a lot of oil stocks in my portfolio.
Warren Buffett will look like a genius if Apple / AAPL gets back on track but it's a two-edge sword -- if AAPL gets back on track, folks will wonder why in the world Warren sold so much of his only tech stock of note.
Right now, Warren Buffett looks like a stodgy "old school" mutual fund sitting back, enjoying 5 to 7 percent return on its cash hoard.
Meanwhile, over the past five years:
- ORCL: 313%
- NVDA: 1,420%
- AVGO: 762%
- PLTR: 1,360%
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BRK / Warren Buffett Lagging The Market
From July 2, 2025, on the blog:
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Warren Buffett: On The Wrong Side Of History?
It's Beginning To Look That Way
The S&P 500 hit another record high today.
This is starting to not look good.
BRK-B's benchmark: the S&P 500.
BRK-B: down 12.5% from its 52-week high.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
- Longer version here.
