Director's Cut -- February, 2020, Data -- Posted

Link here.

Month-over-month crude oil production increased by 1.4% ... and this was in the middle of winter. This is based on preliminary figures; when the final figures are in (next month), the percent will increase).

Crude oil production (bopd) increased month-over-month, despite:

• this being February, historically the most severe winter month of the year;
• completions dropped from 70 wells in January, to a meager 57 wells in February (average 2.258 wells/day vs 1.966 wells/day); ; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; a decrease in the number of completed wells is historically problematic;
• DUCs increased by almost 3%; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; an increase in DUCs is historically problematic;
• so, what accounted for the better production numbers? The number of inactive wells dropped by a whopping 20% (actual: 19.793%)?
• what would account for such a large number of inactive wells coming back on line? better weather and pad drilling

Disclaimer: As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. I need to check the figures later. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The Director's Cut

Data For February, 2020

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here to past reports.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data.
 
Crude oil production:

• February, 2020, preliminary: 1,451,029 bopd 
• previous months: 
• January, 2020, final: 1,430,511 bopd (all-time time was November, 2019)
• December, 2019, final: 1,476,777 bopd
• November, 2019, final:1,519,037 bopd -- new all-time high after final figures come in;
• revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
• October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- previous all-time high
• September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month, bbls: 20,518 bopd  (February, 2020 - January, 2020)
• month-over-month, percent: +1.5%  (February, 2020 - January, 2020)

Gas production:

• February, 2020, preliminary: 3,102,965 MCF/day (new all-time high); 87% capture;
• January, 2020, final: 3,019,938 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• Previous months:
• December, 2019, final: 3,061,412 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• November, 2019, final: 3,165,585MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
• 83% capture
• October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
• 81% capture
• September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, December, preliminary:

• February, 2020, preliminary
• natural gas: 3,102,965 MCF/day = 517,075 boe
• crude oil: 1,451,029 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for February, 2020: 1,968,104 boepd
• all-time high, November, 2019: 2,046,547 boepd

Producing wells:

• February, 2020, preliminary: 16,118
• January, 2020, final; 16,014
• December, 2019, final; 16,042
• November, 2019, final: 16,110
• October, 2019, final: 16,169 (new all-time high)
• September, 2019, final: 16,115
• August, 2019, final: 15,964 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, final: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Wells off-line:

• February, 2020, preliminary: 
• inactive: 2,091
• DUCs: 1,054
• total: 3,145
• January, 2020, final:
• inactive: 2,607
• DUCs: 1,024
• total: 3,631
• December, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,920
• DUCs: 958
• total: 2,878
• November, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,726
• DUCs: 919
• total: 2,645

Permitting:

• March, 2020: 60
• February, 2020: 60
• January, 2020: 61
• December, 2019: 67
• November, 2019: 79
• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 34 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• March, 2020: 52 
• February, 2020: 54
• January, 2020: 55
• December, 2019: 55
• November: 55
• October: 56
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• February, 2020, preliminary: 57
• January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
• December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
• revenue forecast: 90
• November, 2019, final: 92
• October, 2019, final: 102
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

 Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 87% (trending better compared to previous two months)
• statewide, captured: 
• February, 2020: 3,102,965 MCF/day (preliminary) new all-time high
• January, 2020: 2,553,067 MCF/day (final)
• December, 2019: 2,557446 MCF/day (final)
• November, 2019: 2,594,922 MCF/day (new all-time high)
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
• January, 2020: 83%
• December, 2019: 81%
• November, 2019: 81%
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

Off line, to end of February, 2020: 3,145 -- up significantly from January, 2020 -- 3,631 in January; 

• DUCs: 1,054 (up 30 from the 1,024 in January;
• inactive well count: 2,091 (down 516 from 2,607 in January )
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;  
• if I recall correctly, December, 2019, was a fairly "mild" winter by North Dakota standards;
• January: huge jump in DUCs and inactive wells; 
• February, 2020, was a fairly mild month, as I recall;

A year earlier, February, 2019, the "off-line well" data:

February, 2019:

• DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report
• inactive: 1,667, up a whopping 150 from last report
• total: 2,561 (up from 2,332 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)