Updates
April 11, 2022: the SPR release announced by President -- "smoke and mirrors."
April 6, 2022: week 0.
April 5, 2022: jet fuel, east coast, soaring.
April 4, 2022: futures. And, here.
April 3, 2022: futures. Days in storage.
April 2, 2022: commentary. Production: US, Saudi, Russia.
April 2, 2022: the graphic.
April 1, 2022: RBN Energy weighs in.
March 31, 2022: one big Rube Goldberg debacle.
March 31, 2022: Day Zero -- the Biden Surge.
March 31, 2022: the Biden administration is in deep trouble. Huge, huge release announced; how much might Americans see in savings at the gas pump? From President Biden himself: "The SPR release could cut anywhere from 10 - 35 cents a gallon, but it depends on how much allies release." The allies can't come close to releasing anything like the US promises to release.
March 31, 2022: it is now being reported that President Biden will release one million barrels of oil from the SPR on a daily basis for the next six month. WTI over night had dropped to $100/bbl (or thereabouts) but is now back up to $103/bbl. We've talked about this before, why a release of SPR oil could have a paradoxical effect on the price of oil.
Original Post
I assume everyone saw the sell-off of oil today -- March 30, 2022.
The buzz is that the administration will release a million bopd for an extended period of time, and, at the same time, offer rebate coupons to help with high gasoline prices at the pump.
There are so many story lines here, but we now have a new tag: the Biden Surge, just as we had the Saudi Surge tag when Saudi Arabia, 2014 - 2016, flooded the world with oil in an attempt to "break" (bankrupt) US shale.
This is the post where updates for the Biden Surge will be tracked.
Will it make a difference?
- March 31, 2022: unlikely to be enough. Reuters.
- March 30, 2022.
Why now?
Data points of interest to be followed monthly for the next six months, baseline, March 31, 2022:
- US production of crude oil:
- baseline: pending
- days of supply of US crude oil:
- baseline: 26.6 days; almost four weeks;
- amount of distillate in storage -- percent relative to 5-year average:
- baseline: -16.0% (that's a minus sign)
- refiners percent of operating capacity:
- baseline: 92.1%
- US imports of crude oil,
- US imports from Russia; tracked here.
- US exports of crude oil, EIA link:
- baseline, December, 2021: 3.452 million bopd
- US exports of finished motor gasoline, EIA link:
- baseline, December, 2021: 941,000 bopd
- destination of US crude oil exports; EIA link:
- baseline, December 2021, monthly, in 1000's of bbls: more complete list here; top ten destinations:
- Brazil: 11,944
- Canada: 26,436
- China: 14,345
- India: 25,061
- Japan: 18,538
- Korea, South: 18,082
- Mexico: 43,160
- Netherlands: 16,082
- UK: 10,725
- France: 5,766
Political analysis:
- The energy transition is dead. Tracked here.
- ESG is dead, too. Tracked here.
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