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Jobs:
- private payrolls rose by almost half a million; topped expectations --- yeah, that was the headline; LOL:
- estimate: 450,000 jobs
- actual: 455,000 jobs
- so, yes, headline technically correct; but more accurate, "in line"
- giving the Biden administration a little extra help with this headline
- perhaps this should be the headline:
- job growth in the U.S. private sector has decelerated in every month since December, when nearly 800,000 payrolls returned in a single month
GDP, 2021: story here.
- for all of 2021, the nation’s gross domestic product — its total output of goods and services — jumped by 5.7%, the fastest calendar-year growth since a 7.2% surge in 1984 in the aftermath of a brutal recession.
- previous estimate was a 7% jump
- the writer downplays it, but a drop from 7% to 5.7% is not trivial
- a 23% downgrade, as it were
- the "small" downgrade (23%) reflected a smaller increase in consumer spending and fewer exports, both of which could worse going forward
- this strengthens the argument for those who see stagflation around the corner
- but look at that: strongest calendar-year growth since 1984 when US coming out of a brutal recession
- having said that, the post-Covid surge has not yet begun
EU energy crisis: Germany warns of natural gas rationing
Proxies: developing a list of one ticker for each sector as a proxy of overall trend
- Big Oil: CVX
- shale: DVN
- rail: UNP
- auto/EV: F
- semiconductor: up for grabs; perhaps AMD by default;
- chip foundry: TSM
- graphic cards: NVDA
- midstream: SRE
- value: BRK-B
- wow factor: AAPL
Old people and Covid: okay to get additional booster. Starting to lose count, but those that need to know, know
More later: taking Olivia to school
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