The Biden Surge is tracked here.
That's the million-dollar question, or as we used to say, the $64,000-question: will one million bbls of "new" oil per day make a difference?
This takes me back to a "not-ready-for-prime-time" post, February 19, 2018.
Buried in that post is a link to (I suppose it's the most recent) March 8, 2022, EIA short-term energy outlook. That means the analysts took into consideration Putin's War.
Look at the "World Liquid Fuels Consumption" graphic:
- 2020: 92 million bpd the year of the plague
- 2021: 97 million bopd
- 2022: 101 million bopd
- 2023: 102.5 million bopd
Then look at the "World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production" graphic:
- 2020: 94 million bpd
- 2021: 96 million bopd (demand-supply deficit of one million bpd)
- 2022: 102 million bopd (demand-supply deficit of one million bpd)
- 2023: 102.5 million bopd
Some argue the demand-supply deficit will be much larger.
Earlier today, it was being argued that global supply is already short three to four million bopd on supply. OPEC+ does not have enough spare capacity to make up the shortfall, even with Iran.
That "summer of '22" graphic at that link is pretty startling.
At this moment my thoughts: a release of one million bopd from the SPR is a wash. It could have a huge short-term (six months) psychological impact, but long term (one year) it won’t amount to much.
We've had this discussion before. Saudi is not going to let oil get below $80 / bbl, and may in fact move quickly to keep it from dropping below $90 / bbl. I have trouble believing that OPEC+ would react quickly to the Biden Surge but they will be watching closely.
Bottom line:
- global consumption / global demand: 100 million bpd
- the Biden surge: one million bpd; one percent
- the Keystone XL: in round numbers, one million bopd
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