The SPR Release -- Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time -- April 2, 2022

The Biden Surge is tracked here. 

This was in my queue for posting. I was going to get to it eventually but others have sent it to me, some with comments, some without. 

So, I'll post it now, and then post a "not-ready-for-prime-time" post and update it as we go along.

I told the most recent reader who sent me the link:

• I have that article from "Common Sense" in the queue for posting.
• Everybody will have opinions on the release.
• I will make my opinions known on the blog.
• I think this will be absolutely fascinating.
• Like everything else in life it's political, and it's money, and it's power.
• Depending on where on stands (or where one sits) determines how one will see this.

So, here goes.

Again, remember, it's a "not-ready-for-prime-time" post so it is subject to heavy editing in the future, with potential for lots of flip-flopping, and with typographical and content errors that may or may not be corrected later. 

 

So, let's do the bottom line first. 

If I were to write all the pros and all the cons on a long yellow legal pad, the "pros" would outweigh the "cons."

Like many issues involving this administration, it seems counterintuitive.

As noted above, everything in life is related to politics, power, and money.

PART 1: The Average American.

 

The average American cannot handle $5.00 gasoline. Five-dollar gasoline is not good for the US economy. I'm surprised so many folks seem not to realize this.

PART II: Politics

 

The more I read with regard to the release, the more it appears the Biden administration is in a state of panic.

• sanctions will last longer than expected;
• sanctions will result in consequences much more severe than anticipated;
• the myth of spare capacity in the Mideast has been exposed;
• global economy coming out of Covid;
• US driving season will begin in less than two months;
• midterms in six months;

PART III: The Purpose of the SPR

It's not what folks think.

 

PART IV: Unintended Consequences

 

Most analysts, it appears, feel this will only "kick the can down the road."

 

In fact, with associated "punitive actions on Big Oil," it is likely crude oil will actually become more expensive in 2023.

The energy transition is dead. The SPR release did not lead to that. The SPR release simply "revealed" it to those who could not see.

 

PART V: Nietzsche

 

What does not kill me, makes me stronger. 

US shale. 

PART VI: Circling Back

 

Will the price of gasoline be a factor in the midterm elections? After all, this is what this is all about.