Locator: 50105EPICFURY.
WTI: up 7.61%; up $5.10; trading just above $72, around 5:00 a.m. CT. At 7:00 a.m. CT, WTI was up 8.55%; up $5.73; and, trading at $72.75.
This was posted by Peter Zeihan on February 23, 2026. War broke out February 28, 2026.
U.S. strikes against Iran appear imminent, with two aircraft carriers being positioned in the Persian Gulf. Trump has presented Iran with negotiation terms that would effectively end Iran's status as a regional power, so it's no surprise that negotiations have stalled.
The terms laid out by Trump would end Iranian nuclear enrichment, force them to give up long-range missile capabilities, and stop supporting regional paramilitary groups. Spoiler alert: that's Iran's entire strategy and security model. Any conflict would likely start in the air, then move to targeting strategic assets like Kharg Island. Once that happens, Iran would be crippled.
Outside intervention would be unlikely, and removing Iranian oil from global markets wouldn't be the end of the world. The main concern would be destabilizing the region and risking the formation of new terror groups, although things like that take time.
Why did Trump neutralize the entire Iranian navy:
- commercial tankers
- US a/c carriers and their support ships
