First question of the day: how could UNC give up a 15-point lead in mere minutes?
- may have been the biggest comeback in NCAA men's championship basketball history;
Market:
- analyst says "bear market rally" is over; it's all gloom and doom from here;
- if you even bother to read this article, make sure you note the track record of the analyst.
- in pre-market trading, it looks like some profit-taking after a couple of great days on Wall Street -- at least for oil and tech.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
US blocks Russian bond payment:
- complicated;
- $4 billion due April 4, 2022
- 30-daygrace period
- money being blocked: frozen assets in US banks
- also, JPMorgan told to halt activity as go-between
- if US markets (equities) fall today, a major reason will be the US-Russian bond story.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
XOM:
- many questions
- when might it take $4 billion write-off in Russian losses due to sanctions?
- record profit likely to be reported 1Q22; why does stock not reflect that? or does it?
- when will Congress step in? windfall profits tax or something else?
- estimates here:
- EPS: $2.03, up over 200% from prior-year quarter
- revenue: $83 billion; up over 40% from prior-year quarter
- XOM has history of slightly beating estimates
- probably same here unless it writes down Russia losses, although that's really too early
Disclaimer: this is not an
investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
UNP:
- notable stock price drop over last couple of days
- can't find any specific reason; I assume some analyst downgraded the stock
- buying opportunity?
- three transportation stocks covered by analyst here: Delta, UNP, Ryder;
Disclaimer: this is not an
investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career,
travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think
you may have read here.
JNJ:
- interesting play, but there should be time for investors;
- the split / spin-off shouldn't close for 18 to 24 months;
- liability issues seem to be behind them (?): NPR had story
AMD: huge sell-off over last few days; recovering a bit?
- to buy Pensando -- a Milpitas startup led b Cisco "vets"
- $2 billion; link here.
Biden and the truckers:
- don't even click on this article; all fluff
- incredible that business reporters would write this story as they did
- amazing that Teamsters agreed to the photo-op
- I expected more of Buttigieg; sorely disappointed;
- one hour ago: Barron's -- article on diesel;
- US diesel up 63% in 1Q22 -- would that be unprecedented? Let's take a look:
- at $5.25 / gallon, it appears that diesel set an all-time high
- it's hard to believe but the previous high, June 30, 2008, only had a 4-handle: $4.72
- as low as $2.50 during the Trump years of "drill, baby, drill" -- not that long ago
Airfares:
- expect "spectacularly" higher airfares;
- only question for airlines:
- keep prices "as is" at the front end, but when "checking out" add a fuel surcharge; or,
- simply keep it simple, no surprises, high price at front end when searching for flight?
- northeast is going to be a debacle for those wishing to fly;
- jet fuel for delivery to NYC-area airports hits $6.43 / gallon or $270 / barrel -- a likely spot market record. Link here. When you see it in print, doesn't look like much, but graphically, oh-oh.
ISO NE:
- a paltry 12000 MW demand but still prices in the 5th decile, though still "a shade of green"
- link here;
- wind not helping out much yet this morning (5:01 a.m. April 5, 2022)
Putin's War:
- the atrocities are unbelievable; photos / videos now starting to emerge as Russia pulls back:
- Biden refrains from using the word "genocide"
- unbelievable that the EU continues to fund Putin's War; hasn't put sanctions on Russian energy:
- links everywhere including oilprice;
- the fact that Putin is not being compared to Hitler, at least by many, still boggles the mind;
Renewables can't solve Europe's energy crisis: link here;
- a reader of the Bakken wrote me regularly three to four years ago the same thing that is now being said by "everyone"
- renewables can't even begin to "save" Europe
- and that's why EU has difficulty placing sanctions on Russian energy -- difficulty, perhaps "impossible"
- Greta, take note:
- most recent energy plan for Europe:
- Another 20 billion cubic meters, according to the plan, could be replaced by using more coal, per Industry and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton.
Speaking of coal: great observation by Twain's Mustache --
- 23% of electricity in the US comes from burning coal:
- US GDP per capita last year: $70,000
- meanwhile, there's more than 3 billion people in the world earning $5.50 per day or less
- and Greta is lecturing them for using coal?
- meanwhile, US coal prices top $100 / ton for the first time since 2008
- but 23% of US electricity comes from coal? Wow, that's a quarter of all our electricity -- dependable, dispatchable, predictable
Gasoline demand: interesting phenomenon --
- anecdotal: stations running out of gasoline more frequently, especially in high-density urban areas like New York City:
- the stations are getting the same amount of gasoline but more customers are doing more frequent purchases; trying to avoid sticker shock
- interestingly enough, EIA data still doesn't show the increase in gasoline demand that GasBuddy says is happening;
- we'll get new numbers tomorrow;
More and more taxing jurisdictions cutting fuel taxes:
- stimulating demand? LOL.
OPEC+:
- Russia offering record discounts (~ $32 under Brent); link here;
- Saudi Arabia: raised its selling price for its key Arab Light to the Far East to a premium of $9.35 over Dubai
- I assume Dubai is a proxy for Brent in that part of the world
EV batteries:
- I didn't care for this article one way or the other; would not have posted it but it has a summary of those companies that "provide" EV charging stations;
- look at the list and tell me who's going to win this game; that's a rhetorical question; don't reply;
- one can also see where money can be made in mergers;
- winners will be those with deep pockets; here is the list provided at the linked article:
- ABB (ABB)
- Blink Charging (BLNK)
- BP (BP)
- ChargePoint (CHPT)
- Chevron (CVX)
- COP
- EVBox (TPGY)
- XOM
- Phillips 66 (PSX)
- Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL)
- Sunoco (SUN)
- Total Energies (TTE)
- Valero (VLO)
***********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $104.30 | 4/5/2022 | 04/05/2021 | 04/05/2020 | 04/05/2019 | 04/05/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 35 | 12 | 44 | 62 | 58 |
Tuesday, April 5, 2022: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 169 for the year
- 38517, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 7-28H1, Little Knife, no production data,
- 36102, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, nice well;
- 36101, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, nice well;
Monday, April 4, 2022: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 166 for the year
- 38518, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 8-28H, Little Knife, no production data,
- 37015, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 2-27H, Long Creek, no production datal
Sunday, April 3, 2022: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 164 for the year
- 38548, conf, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-6H, Westberg, no production data,
- 38526, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 9-28HSL1, Little Knife, no production data,
- 38545, conf, Ovintiv, Wisness State 152-96-16-21-14H, Westberg, no production data,
RBN Energy: energy transition slams into energy reality slams into war in Europe.
The battle lines were drawn. The drive toward decarbonization was rushing headlong into the reality of energy markets. Things were going to get messy, but at least it was becoming more evident how the energy transition would impact key market developments, from the chaos in European natural gas, to producer capital restraint in the oil patch, to the rising impact of renewable fuels and, of course, the escalating roadblocks to pipeline construction. Then, a monkey wrench was thrown into the works.
The world was confronted with the madness of war in Europe, with all sorts of consequences for energy markets: sanctions, boycotts, cutbacks, strategic releases, price spikes and, here in the U.S., what looks to be a softening of the Biden administration’s view against hydrocarbons — at least natural gas and LNG. So now the markets for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs aren’t only inextricably tied to renewables, decarbonization and sustainability, they must navigate the transition turmoil under the cloud of wartime disruptions. It’s simply impossible to understand energy market behavior without having a solid grasp of how these factors are linked together. That is what School of Energy Spring 2022 is all about! In today’s RBN blog — a blatant advertorial — we’ll highlight how our upcoming conference integrates existing, war-impacted market dynamics with prospects for the energy transition.
The war did not end "energy transition" -- the new euphemism for "renewable energy" -- it only made obvious what most of us already knew. See how RBN Energy analyzes this and compare to Peter Zeihan.
************************************
Wells Coming Off Confidential List Actually Reporting Production
The wells:
- 36102, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, nice well;
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2022 | 19349 | 29880 |
| 1-2022 | 26665 | 40192 |
| 12-2021 | 26548 | 38584 |
| 11-2021 | 34840 | 47151 |
| 10-2021 | 4668 | 6810 |
- 36101, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, nice well;
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2022 | 20192 | 35630 |
| 1-2022 | 26471 | 44242 |
| 12-2021 | 25723 | 39804 |
| 11-2021 | 32812 | 45361 |
| 10-2021 | 6337 | 9098 |
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