Notes From All Over -- December 31, 2021

Updates

Later, 8:30 p.m. CT: wow, talk about a mismatched semifinal game, Alabama vs Cincinnati -- one could see where this game was headed before the first drive by Alabama was even completed. As for the second game, it appears one team failed to show up. The good news: most fans were able to spend more time with their families on New Year's Eve knowing the outcome of both games before the end of the first quarter.

Later, 6:52 p.m. CT: in the original note I mentioned that the largest Buc-ee's in the world was outside New Braunfels, TX. I mentioned that to my granddaughter. She replied, "not for long." World's largest Buc-ee's is under construction in Tennessee:

• construction began earlier this autumn (2021); to be completed in 2023;
• in Sevier County; exit 407, I-40, "gateway" for Great Smoky Mountains National Park; Kodak, TN
• 120 fueling positions (compared with 60 at the New Braunfels, TX, site
• 250-foot long car wash:
• 74,000-square-foot development;
• the first Buc-ee's in Tennessee was recently announced, located in Crossville, TN

What I find most interesting about this: the close relationship between Tennessee and Texas that began more than a hundred years ago continues today.

Original Note

Betty White: reportedly dies at 99. 

Vanguard: if you're having problems with accessing Vanguard, you are not the only one.  Bogle's website has been down off and on (mostly off) for the past six days.

XOM: it's going to be one of the bigger investing stories in 2022.

• whisper numbers here; let me know if one can find a company whose expected quarterly earnings will grow more than XOM's with their next report (year/year); for XOM: 5,733%.
• SEC filings suggest earnings will be better than Wall Street thinks; Barron's.
• reaps windfall with energy rally; Bloomberg;
• higher gasoline prices to boost profts by as much as $1.1 billion; MarketWatch.
• quarterly earnings per share, 2006 - 2021,  XOM; macrotrends. This could be one of XOM's best quarters in recent history;
• XOM to post fourth consecutive quarterly (increase) in profit; HartEnergy;
  

UNP: closed at a 52-week high, after raising dividend twice in one year. Closed just above $252.

Pelosi: I have no idea why folks are upset with news of her recent equity trading. Has she not provided us her crystal ball? You may not like Pelosi, but you might want to look at her picks. It's not as if she doesn't know what's happening. For the record, she invested in Google, Roblox, and Disney, hardly earth-shattering.

• Roblox: huge
  

Pelosi's home state: it's generally agreed that California could see $6-gasoline next year (2022).

Lutheran Social Services: declares bankruptcy. Won’t follow. 

Richest people in the world: nice video. Speaks volumes about the Bakken, but in a way most folks won't connect.

Buc-ee's New Braunfels, TX: the world's largest gas station.

TSLA: one of my predictions for 2022 -- China will present formidable challenges for Tesla. Today this: China will cut subsidy standard for new energy vehicles by 30% y/y in 2022; CN Wire. So, nine of ten predictions yet to follow.

Flaring: when I heard that AOC had departed NYC for a sunny vacation I assumed she was going to Iraq to check in on flaring; alas she went to maskless Florida. Iraq: flares more natural gas in ONE year than California produces in 3.5 years. California banned flaring in 1939.

• California imported almost 50 million bbls of crude oil from Iraq in 202
• California has increased its dependence on oil from Iraq by almost 70% since 2017 (almost 30 million bbls)

US equities: best sector in 2021? Energy. Up almost 50% in the past year.

Flashback: bringing down the bank in Williston, ND. Ultimate Googie architecture?

• opened, May 22, 1963, next door to my dad's business. 
• the story begins with the classic Patty Melt. The story is behind a paywall, but there appears a way around; will be archived;
• think The Jetsons
  
• demolished July 21, 2008 -- after 45 years
• more of the story, here;
  

DAO: new "buzzword" for 2021. 

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.512% -- trending down.
  
• DXY: link here. 95.60 -- trending down.
  
• Silver: link  here. $23.31 -- trending up.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. 17.5, up slightly but remains at the lower end.
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$75.46	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019	12/31/2018	12/31/2017
Active Rigs	30	13	55	67	49

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: the top ten RBN energy prognostications for 2021 -- scorecard. 

Finally! It’s the last day of 2021, which means it’s time for our annual Top 10 Energy Prognostications blog, the long-standing RBN tradition where we look into our crystal ball to see what the upcoming year has in store for energy markets. And unlike many forecasters, we also look into the rear-view mirror to see how we did with last year’s predictions. That’s right! We actually check our work! And that’s what we’ll do in today’s scorecard blog. Then on Monday we’ll lay out what we see as the most important developments of the year ahead. But today it’s time to look back.