Locator: 51829B.
WTI: surprise, surprise .... WTI up 1.74% Sunday night; pre-market, up $1.61; trading at $94.
President Trump says he has no plans to even look at Iran's proposal to open the strait. Good for him. Trump has already completed the trifecta in his first year or so in office -- trifecta plus many other "smaller" successes, though those successes would hardly be considered "small" in any other administration.
New wells reporting:
- Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 54 for the month, 134 for the quarter, 491 for the year,
- 42395, conf, KODA Resources, Ale 2436-1BHN,
- 42284, conf, Formentera, Fonda 23-02-BAL N518HF,
- Monday, September 28, 2026: 52 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 489 for the year,
- 42283, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N516HF,
- Sunday, September 27, 2026: 51 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 488 for the year,
- 42282, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N513HF,
- Saturday, September 26, 2026: 50 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 487 for the year,
- 42281, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N611HF,
RBN Energy: potential plans to limit US diesel exports come with plenty of downside risk. Link here. Archived. [President Trump's advisors convinced the same for President Trump and at the moment he has no plans to ban exports of diesel fuel. Wow. Amazing.]
It’s been a banner year for U.S. refiners, especially those able to consistently run at high rates and maximize their production of diesel. The U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread surpassed $100/bbl for the first time in August and has remained elevated ever since, driven by a series of disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows significant enough to raise the prospect of a ban on U.S. diesel exports as a way to keep prices in check. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where things stand and how a U.S. export ban could result in a number of unintended short- and long-term consequences.
Geopolitical tensions and upset trade flows have been the central theme of this year’s energy markets. Middle Eastern refineries have been affected by damage inflicted during the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian refining and exports have been repeatedly set back by Ukrainian drone attacks. Those developments come at a time when global refining capacity is already tight due to a number of permanent shutdowns (many during the COVID years) and limited new capacity coming online (a subject addressed in detail in our recently released Future of Fuels report), leading to sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.
The diesel market is particularly exposed to those types of disruptions because global supply remains constrained and demand is comparatively (vs. gasoline) resilient, leaving little cushion when disruptions occur. The U.S. has historically been the biggest supplier of diesel to the global market, so it should be no surprise that exports have increased this year, with foreign buyers pulling harder on a system that is already near its limit. U.S. distillate exports averaged about 1.4 MMb/d in H1 2026, up from 1.25 MMb/d in 2025 and about 7X the volumes from 20 years ago. Imports have also declined this year, leading to a record level of net exports.
