Putting The Bakken Into Perspective -- December 9, 2018

Updates

Later, 10:07 a.m. CT: Don sent me a link to an article in the January, 2018, issue of Geo News. It should download as a pdf on your desktop:

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/documents/newsletter/2018Winter/Examination_of_Middle_Three_Forks_Hydrocarbon_Charge_and_Production.pdf

From that article:

There is currently limited geological information available regarding the petroleum geology and economic importance of the middle to lower Three Forks.

Resource assessments of the Three Forks Formation have ranged from approximately 2 to 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil, but these assessments have been limited to the upper Three Forks (Nordeng and Helms, 2010; Gaswirth et al., 2013).

This article reports the preliminary findings of a recently initiated study on the origin and distribution of oil saturations within the middle Three Forks. It also reviews the present production footprint of 2nd bench horizontal oil wells and projects their potential future distribution.

In addition, I am examining oil saturations and hydrocarbon production in the lower Three Forks (3rd and 4th benches).

The author is Timothy O. Nesheim.

As noted, this article is a "work in progress." Unless I missed it, the author did not provide estimated reserves in the middle or lower benches of the Three Forks.

Don suggests it is likely that this paper is part of the ongoing USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks.

Original Post

At one million bopd, the Bakken produces (365 million bbls x 3 years =) one billion bbls every three years. Unfettered, of course, the Bakken could produce more than 2 million bopd, or one billion bbls every year and a half.

So what?

At the sidebar at the right, there is a long list with "Other Formations." Here is the link to "Norway," for example.

And from that page, the most recent post:

December 8, 2018: from Equinor's website, this date -- Johan Sverdrup—the North Sea giant Johan Sverdrup is one of the five largest oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf.

With expected resources of between 2.1—3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalents, it will also be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years. The development and operation of this enormous field will generate revenue and provide jobs for coming generations.

My hunch is that the next USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks will be the equivalent of adding several such fields to the Williston Basin. It is unlikely the next survey will include Three Forks B2 and B3 because so few wells have been drilled into the lower Three Forks.