Locator: 51401ENERGY.
Never in a million years -- back in the late 1990's did I ever think I would say this. Ten, twenty years ago, I was trying to think how to get out of my oil-and-gas-heavy portfolio. I'm not adding to my position but I'm certainly not thinking about getting out of oil and natural gas until at least 2030
Energy breakout.
Stay tuned.
Refiners.
Natural gas.
Elon Musk pivots.
In the near-term, and probably for the long term, the war in the Middle East over the Hormuz Strait has ended further investment in refiners in those countries. Whether it comes back or not, is hard to say.
Where might we see new refineries:
- not sub-Saharan Africa; yes, Nigeria is getting a lot of attention, but that's a one-off;
- more likely: the Mediterranean region north and west of the Mideast
- Turkey -- this is a huge possibility; the tri-nation military pact speaks volumes; and,
- Morocco (tourism), Algeria (French), Tunisia (too small), Libya (unrest)
Economy: for investors, is it time to pivot?
- real GDP growing at 2%
- nominal GDP is growing at 7%
- the S&P is growing at 17%: health care, financials, energy but not seeing it in semiconductors (growth already priced in); neo-cloud hyperscalers -- part of the original magnificent 7. None of the original mag 7 tech were built on memory chips. Five of the seven were hyperscalers from the beginning; then came along the sixth; the seventh is not a hyperscaler..
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Disclaimer
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Longer version here.
