Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Apple -- Or, Climbing The Wall Of Worry -- Summer Breakout? WTI With 86-Handle -- Phoenix Rising? August 19, 2026

Locator: 51449MARKET.  

Lots of records being set today

Moderna:  up $78. Trading at $141.65. Up 125% today. That's today. 

Merck: just surpassed CAT as the best-performing S&P stock today. 

About two months ago, I posted on the blog that there was a good argument for pivoting to banks and pharmaceuticals. Banks are down severely today. 

The diesel effect? 

Trump: mentioned phoenix rising -- Keystone XL? Here we go again. 

Financial advisors: still using the old equity / bond mix based on one's age. Ridiculous. Cookie cutters. "All" wealth managers are now, it appears, using "tax loss strategy." You will immediately have 500 different tickers/stocks in your portfolio. I guess if your focus is on losses you are doing something wrong.  How about the top two companies in each S&P sector and use tax loss strategy selectively.  By the way, you can develop your own portfolio with any rules you want using Claude. 

NDIC Director's Cut: June data. To be released today. Link here. Must use a non-Firefox browser. By the way, it's also on YouTube, link here. Some of these may be the previous month but you can find the most recent (August cut with June data). Use Chrome and search "NDIC Director's Cut" and wow! How fast it pops up. Amazing. 

AI: our local school district (elementary -- high school) has directed that middle school teachers cut back on devices / digital and use more paper this year. More writing; no surfing. AI was not mentioned. LOL. 

So there's that. Last year, the district directed that middle school teachers use more digital, cut back on paper. Over the summer, "they" revamped the entire electronic communication process -- new e-mail addresses for teacher; new websites to access lesson plans. In the big scheme of things, the middle school Sophia attends is quite awesome. She is very lucky. Her ELA (English) class -- almost no digital except for communication / lesson plans -- all writing -- and lots and lots of writing. 

Sophia's favorite class, so far: Texas history. And it's the longest class. 5th period: first half about 30 minutes and then they go to lunch; after lunch they come back to Texas history for another 30 minutes or so. That's true for all 5th period classes -- it just happened that Sophia's 5th period is Texas history and her favorite teacher. Also, no digital / no devices, except occasionally some video snippets. 

Less (almost no) homework -- emphasis on family, sports, church. Not necessarily in that order. Oh, correction: Sophia's favorite class (teacher) is science, but Texas history is a close second. 

WTI: $86.41.

**********************************
Stock Talk 

Stock talk. See disclaimer.  

I could be wrong but if I recall correctly, Dan Nathan's last trade recommendation last week -- Friday? -- was to short AAPL.  

I wonder if he also took a short position in MRNA?


 I wonder what Michael Burry is doing today?

*********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.
  • From yesterday -- lots of anxiety -- link here:

    • Competing interest, for the investing dollar, of course -- the hyperscalers; the LCD infrastructure; the chips up and down the racks -- CPUs, GPUs, TPUs, NPUs, HBM. 
    • Amazon: announced today it is increasing its Louisiana data center investment by 50% of $18 billion as it adds a third campus in Shreveport.
    • The Mideast is unsettled ... really unsettled ... The NYT, of course, will tell us in great detail how Iran is preparing for more war. Link here. If you're a doom-scroller, probably no better place to start than The NYT
    • US bonds -- which I understand not at all -- are trending higher and higher... putting pressure on the AI story -- and more and more state governors are temporarily halting AI development (at least until the midterms are over) ... and The New York Times will tell you how bad it really is ... anything to take a swipe at Trump / Bessent. Link here. It gets tedious.
    • The business stories are contradictory ... things seem more concerning, more unsettled than the business media is letting on ... 
    • The META story is just beginning, will take a long time to play out, but META could be in very, very deep trouble ... California will balance its budget, pay for health care with META dollars ...