Locator: 48809MARKET.
Macro-economy: biggest head fake in thirty years?
- all that talk about alternative reserve currency being anything from rials to rubles to Euros to BRICS, turns out it will be ...
- crypto.
Japan trade deal:
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Big beautiful bill: I need to keep reminding myself that --
- the bill may have exceeded 1,000 pages in length - a lot of stuff can be hidden in a bill that long;
- the bill included a significant increase to the DOD budget
- specifically:
- $150 billion for defense and national security -- this is in addition to the Pentagon's existing budget request for $848 billion for FY26, pushing total planned defense spending over $1 trillion
- bad news: no increase in retired pay; military pensions remained unchanged;
- did not include any direct COLA freezes or increases for current military annuities;
- however, existing retirement structures were left intact and fully preserved, which is a positive but modest outcome for the retiree community;
- other:
- tax breaks in 2017, temporary at the time, are now permanent; that alone is amazing
- this time: temporary deductions for tip and overtime income for certain workers -- that overtime piece may be a bigger deal than many think
- cut: Medicaid and SNAP; states like California where majority of population won't accept cuts.
- border security: finish the wall and increase the number of ICE officers and Border Patrol agents -- it will be difficult for future administrations to make cuts in ICE / BP
- clean energy initiatives go away
- however, after reading answers to specific questions, it seems this bill did not change much for the average American in terms of increased benefits -- there were instead some significant cuts reflecting a pivot in philosophy -- generally one looked at spending bills to see what goodies might be in there for them; this time, really nothing, except maybe for infants born during these next three years (2025 - 2028) getting a very, very nice IRA
How to think about that additional $150 billion. The DoD provides US Congress:
- what we absolutely need
- what we really need but could survive with less but this is what we would not get
- a dream list: those things which we don't think we will ever get but if we don't ask we definitely won't get it; sort of a nice-to-have list -- this third rice bowl is the $150 billion
Hasbro: earnings blowout today. Wow. Who wudda thought? Let's see what ChatGPT has to say.
- Prompt:
Hasbro reported incredible, almost unbelievable numbers, earnings 2Q25 -- what accounts for Hasbro's success this past quarter?
- Answer, from ChatGPT:
ChatGPT: revenue surged 16% y/y driven by Magic: The Gathering. Segment operating margins remained strong at 46%.
- MTG is a fantasy trading card game created by Wizards of the Coast, a subsidiary of Hasbro;
- released in --- can you believe this? 1993!
dominance of high-margin gaming/IP (Wizards)
- widely considered the first and most influential collectible card game in the world what makes it successful: deep strategy; new card sets.
- know what would be fun? To play against ChatGPT. LOL.
- my next prompt to ChatGPT:
Has anyone ever thought of playing any of the MTG games with ChatGPT as an opponent? Would you be willing to play the game as an opponent?
It's worth reading ChatGPT's response to get an idea of what a chatbot can do and can't do.
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Other
ATT: a nice surprise.
GOOG: after market closes this afternoon.
Texas Instruments: after earnings, drops almost 10%.
- key sectors for TI: automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers like Ford.
- does this tell us how US automotive manufacturers might be doing? Exhibit A: GM's earnings. Horrendous report this week.
Freeport-McMoRan: beats on higher copper and gold prices;
- shares down slightly after report; SCCO is up slightly today;
