Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Exuberant Edition -- July 13, 2021

Updates

CPI:

  • up 0.9% vs 0.5% expected;
  • pre-market trading immediately reverses
  • AAPL: pre-market looked to have a good day; after CPI released, AAPL turns negative in pre-market trading
  • EOG: stays green, but drops a bit after CPI released;
  • Dow trending toward green immediately fell to -78 in pre-market trading
  • S&P: barely green went to -10 after numbers released
  • NASDAQ: definitely green pre-market; after CPI released, NASDAQ goes negative to -40
  • Steve Liesman
    • raises pressure on the Fed to react sooner than later, but nothing right away
    • used cars: #1 on the list; up 10% on the month
      • would love to hear some analysis of the used-car phenomenon
      • my hunch: the reasons might surprise us

Original Post

Elon Musk schools Algore: from twitter, on Elon Musk, link here.

Market:all major indices hit new records yesterday

  • two of thee will hit new records today
  • possible that the Dow will also hit new records today

CNBC: best states for business: link here.

  • 5: Tennessee; cracks top 5 for first time
  • 4: Texas: lowest ranking since CNBC study began;
  • 3: Utah: 
  • 2: North Carolina: strongest finish in history of study; AAPL -- new campus
  • 1: Virginia -- CNBCs first back-to-back winner. Life, health, and inclusion.

Most ignored story on twitter: Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves;

Ft Worth: the garden spot in Texas! -- WAR52 over at twitter.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: mark this day on your calendar. For investors, it's gonna be a huge day. 

AAPL: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Oil: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Inflation: 

 

  • historical:

  • investors, BofA July Fund Manager Survey:
    • only 22% of investors see higher inflation in the next twelve months;
      70% say it is temporary
    • nearly 73% of investors say economy in mid- or late-cycle; up 9% from June   
  • what's going on in Cuba? 
    • the underlying trigger for riots / protests in South Africa and Cuba is likely the development in food pricesfood prices are now up 40% on the year (as in 2011 before the Arab Spring)

Oil:

  • more and more indications global demand will exceed supply
  • in its monthly report, IEA warned that unless OPEC+ reaches a deal (and soon), 3Q21 could see the largest crude oil stock draw "in at least a decade."  Oil markets will tighten significantly.
  • Giovanni: following two consecutive months of decline, global oil demand surged by an estimated 3.2 mb/d to 96.8 mb/d in June;
  • Javier Blas: "strikingly, OPEC+ flagged that Russia 'has never pumped anywhere close" to its OPEC+ baseline of 11 million b/d;

Earnings, 2Q21:

  • Conagra Brands: raises dividend to 31.25 cents; record date, 8/3/21; was 27.5 cents; strong 4Q21 and full-year results; as recently as August, 2020, the dividend was 21.3 cents; between August, 2020, and August, 2021, CAG has increased its dividend 46 percent;
  • Pepsi: blows past estimates, Brian Sozzi, anchor editor-at-large;
  • JPM: down $1.60 in pre-market trading;
    • earnings top estimates
    • posts $2.3 billion benefit from releasing $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking $734 million in charge-offs; 
    • whisper numbers killing share price
  • GS, huge beat;
    • earnings: $15.02 vs $10.24 expected; link here;
    • revenue: $15.39 billion vs $12.17 billion expected;
    • whisper numbers killing share price


Defund the police:

  • like global warming, does anyone really care?
  • Chicago gangsters outnumber cops 10 to 1 as spike in crime reaches fever pitch;
  • three top issues that get a lot of attention, but no one in DC is truly concerned
    • murder, crime; defunding the police;
    • unemployment
    • global warming: 1994 -- first major warnings came out; 2021 -- business as usual; in fact, business is much better than usual

Fun with statistics:

  • Guillain-Barré vs gun violence in Chicago
  • JNJ vaccine: Guillain-Barré: 100 people out of 12.8 million  = 0.0000078 = 0.00078%
    • people shot in Chicago over weekend: 100 / 2.7 million = 0.000037 = 0.0037%
    • 0.0037 / 0.00078 = 5x -- five times as many folks shot with guns in Chicago over the weekend compared with number of GB possibly associated with JNJ vaccine. "all" of whom who will recover; which cannot be said about the 20+ that dies from gunshot wounds over the weekend
    • which will get more coverage today?

Vaccine:

  • Delta variant deaths,
    • 0.5% were vaccinated
    • 95.5% were unvaccinated

Global warming:

AAPL:

Saudi Arabia: drops Morgan Stanely on gas pipelines deal; hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs; link here.

Cuba: the western hemisphere country that was most hurt by the UN over the past fifty years --

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