Wednesday, January 2, 2019

The "Red Queen" Argument All Over Again -- January 2, 2019

Fracking has a problem -- WSJ -- link here. It's the "Red Queen" argument all over again. Among many other arguments. Additional comments here.


By the way, this is why this blog is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The gist of the article: operators over-estimated their projections when talking to investors. Shocking! Shocking, I say!

Meanwhile, from the NDIC: historical monthly oil production statistic.


The entire North Dakota oil history. Oil was discovered in North Dakota in 1951. Data is available for every month, but I simply took the highest production month for any given year. Production routinely dropped below 30 bbls/well/day in the mid-1990s.


Year
Daily Oil Per Well (bbls)
1951
202
1952
231
1953
150
1954
58
1955
71
1956
69
1957
51
1958
43
1959
47
1960
47
1961
47
1962
48
1963
47
1964
47
1965
44
1966
44
1967
41
1968
42
1969
41
1970
41
1971
41
1972
40
1973
41
1974
40
1975
40
1976
40
1977
41
1978
42
1979
49
1980
54
1981
55
1982
48
1983
48
1984
46
1985
42
1986
40
1987
37
1988
33
1989
32
1990
31
1991
30
1992
28
1993
26
1994
25
1995
26
1996
29
1997
32
1998
32
1999
34
2000
29
2001
29
2002
27
2003
26
2004
29
2005
32
2006
34
2007
37
2008
50
2009
55
2010
70
2011
86
2012
96
2013
101
2014
105
2015
100
2016
88
2017
85
2018
91

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