Another Old Bakken Well WIth Jump In Production -- November 2, 2019

Here is another example of jump in production in an old Bakken well. I was scanning the NDIC map, looking for a recently completed DUC. I found the DUC, a WPX Bison section line well. Just to the west of that horizontal, was another horizontal running in the opposite direction. I assumed it would be off line (while neighboring wells were being fracked) but I was pleasantly surprised.

From 1,600 bbls/month to 13,000 bbls/month -- an 8-fold jump in production.

The well:

• 24163, 759, Enerplus, Cirrus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, t4/13; cum 279K 9/19;

Recent oil production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2019	29	12689	12723	10419	19034	12452	6483
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	7797	7322	7187	11696	5004	6599
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	1440	1415	1077	2160	4	2066
BAKKEN	6-2019	23	965	976	744	1447	93	1289
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1589	1734	997	2383	1330	964
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1595	1736	1135	2393	1158	1148

Back of the envelope, a mom-and-pop mineral owner:

• 1280-acre spacing
• own 160 acres
• 1/8 royalty (12.5%)
• $40 oil
• decimal unit works out to:
• 160/1280 = 0.125
• 1/8 royalty = 0.125
• 0.125 x 0.125 = 0.015625

1,600 bbls x $40 x 0.015625 = $1,000 for that month for that one well, back in 4/19.

13,000 bbls x $40 x 0.015625 = $8,125 for that month for that one well, this past month, 9/19.

(There would be several wells on this drilling unit.)

$23 Trillion Is Just A Milestone -- Not To Worry -- We Owe Most Of It To Ourselves -- November 2, 2019

Flashback, from March 16, 2015:

From Yahoo!Finance:

The U.S. government has officially hit its debt ceiling. Beginning today, the Treasury Department is taking “extraordinary measures” to keep the government from defaulting on its debt which now exceeds $18 trillion.

A suggestion: starting exporting US oil. LOL.

Fast forward, November 2, 2019: US debt surpasses $23 trillion for the first time.

Of the $23 trillion figure, just under $17 trillion was in the category of debt held by the public, which is a more useful gauge of the debt the government has to pay down, and the number typically used in calculating the nation's debt burden. The other $6 trillion comes from loans within government bodies.

So, not to worry. The "$23 trillion" is simply a milestone, and one that arrived on/about Halloween, 2019.

Debt doesn't matter -- Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman.

Link here.

Link here.

July 22, 2019, two-year debt ceiling deal between the White House and Congress.

Week 44: October 27, 2019 -- November 2, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

• Conan the Belgian Malinois takes out ISIS #1; Conan trumps Trump;
• ISIS #2 taken out; military gets minimal credit; Trump gets none;

Top international energy story:

• UK halts all fracking
• Canadian Encana leaves Canada; moves to US; says Canada is closed for business;
• OPEC imports collapse;

Top national non-energy story:

• Markets surge to new records; here; here; AAPL; and, here;
• Incredible jobs report;
• Houston Astros can't win one game at home; four opportunities;

Top national energy story:

• MPC to be broken into three companies;
• US gasoline demand jumps;
• US crude oil inventories surge;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• NDDOT, city of New Town, others celebrate the completion of the Northwest Truck Reliever Route north of New Town
• $30.3 million project
• final portion of the truck reliever route around New Town
• diverts traffic from 1804 to ND 23 west of New Town
• five-year project; 1.5 mile long; one of four major projects completed in New Town in the last five years
• in all, approx $87 million has been invested in improving roadways in that area
• Kathy Neset to head the North Dakota Petroleum Council 
• September crude oil production could be down as much as 150,000 bopd due to road restriction; September -- wettest September ever
•  Linton DAPL hearing could get tense; meeting could stretch two days or more; Emmons County Courhouse Auditorium; to begin November 13 at 9:00 a.m.
• state officials to investigate the Keystone Pipeline spill near Edinburgh, ND; estimated to be 9,120 bbls

Operations:

• Forty-four permits renewed in one day;
• Thirty-two permits renewed in one day;
• 20-fold jump in production -- old Oasis well in Elidah oil field;
• Twelve DUCs reported as completed;
• Bakken sets another "recent" record: oil/well/day
• BR looks to put 20 wells on a 2560-acre drilling unit;

Natural gas:

• North Dakota natural gas plant update

Pipeline:

• Keystone Pipeline leak in northeastern North Dakota;

Commentary:

• Bakken looks better and better

Miscellaneous:

• Missouri River runoff could set record;

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- Bloomberg -- November 2, 2019

Link here. Data points:

• the majors have increased commercial reserves by 62 billion boe, proven and probable through the downturn
• equivalent to another BP and Chevron combined
• forecast: 
• 2030 production to be 6 million boepd
• 2030 production: 40% higher than it was in 2014
• majors are chasing value
• have driven breakevens from $63/bbl in 2015 to an average of just $40/bbl today (2019)
• and then, look at this:
• “The U.S. majors, for example, have significantly strengthened tight oil exposure. European Majors have used DROs, M&A and exploration to beef up advantaged positions in conventional plays,” Ellacott stated.
• The seven majors: Equinor, Chevron, XOM, Eni, Shell BP, and Total.

"Advantaged oil":  short cycle time. Going back into "old" fields, using new technology, to bring back production from declining pools; "dead" basins.  Currently refers mostly to older "conventional" plays, but suitable for older unconventional fields.

BP defines "advantaged oil" as: “From an investment perspective, an advantaged oil project means a short cycle time for development (from finding the resource to producing first oil) and a low development cost,” Dupree said in a recent interview published in BP’s in-house magazine.

"Advantaged oil": term used as early as 2012 by the Chinese.

Previously linked:

“This latest expansion at Thunder Horse is another example of how the Gulf of Mexico is leading the way in advantaged oil growth for BP, unlocking significant value and safely growing a high-margin business,” said Starlee Sykes, BP’s regional president for the Gulf of Mexico and Canada.

Consider "brownfield" vs "greenfield."

UK Halts All Fracking -- FT -- November 2, 2019

Link here.

The decision comes at the start of an election campaign where opposition parties are set to make environmental issues central to their attacks on Boris Johnson’s Conservative party.

The government said there would be a “moratorium” on fracking until “compelling new evidence” showed that it was safe.

Although ministers insisted until recently that shale gas could help Britain make the “transition” to a zero carbon economy, replacing imported gas from the Middle East, fracking has been increasingly targeted by a powerful new environmental movement. 

Apparently global warming not as serious as the Brits once thought. 

Orca-1, Offshore Mauritania -- Year's Largest Natural Gas Discovery In 2019 -- So Far -- Announced Monday, October 28, 2019

Mauritania coast: between Western Sahara to the north, Senegal to the south.

Link here to Rigzone.

• Kosmos Energy -- based in Dallas, TX
• deepest and largest discovery so far this year (2019)
• holds around 1.3 billion boe recoverable resources
• adds to world-class discoveries in Senegal and Mauritania
• Mauritania and Senegal are slowly becoming “world class” LNG centers, “with three different planned hubs containing around 10 million tons per annum, including the Yakaar-Terenga hub, Tortue hub and the Bira Allah hub”
• Mauritania now ties Guyana for the second most discovered volumes this year, trailing closely behind Russia with 1.5 billion boe

Petrochemical Plants In North Dakota -- Update -- November 2, 2019

I can't recall if I posted this story earlier -- it may be old news for most readers --

Link to naturalgasintel -- paywall, unfortunately ... October 25, 2019 --

The North Dakota Industrial Commission plans to analyze the composition of natural gas liquids (NGL) produced in the state to weigh the feasibility of building petrochemical plants to help reduce flared and wasted natural gas from Bakken Shale production.

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority (NDPA) is commissioning the University of North Dakota’s Energy and Environmental Research Center to complete the study for $300,650 by May (2020).

In 2020, North Dakota’s total gas processing capacity should reach 3.36 Bcf/d, a 6% increase over 2019 capacity in the state, according to the NDPA.

August, 2019, Director's Cut:

• natural gas production: 3,013,014 thousand cubic feet /day (new all-time high) or 3.013 billion cfpd

Search: EERC.