Coal -- December 15, 2023

Locator: 46314COAL.
Locator: 46314INSANITY.  

Before we get to today's news, from the past, August 6, 2023, just a few months ago:

Now, back to today's news.

The "final statement" published by COP28, I assume, will be a fairly thick document, with lots of attachments and appendices.

I hope this is one off the appendices:

Global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4% this year and surpass a record-high level of 8.5 billion tons for the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. 

While coal demand in the United States and the EU is set for a 20% record decline this year, coal use in emerging economies “remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output,” the IEA said in its Coal 2023 annual report today.  

The US and the EU are not the problems here. Now that wind and solar energy is / are now the answer to all our global energy problems, the question is why India and China continue to add coal to their energy mix, rather than cutting coal use to the same extent that the US and the EU have.

Had India, China, and the rest of the emerging markets cut their coal demand by 20%, we would not have even needed COP28. 

By the way, "global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4%." Are you kidding me? A gazillion tons of coal use worldwide in a dozen emerging nations and the IEA bureaucrats can forecast coal use to this preciseness. LOL. The EIA can't even accurately account for oil supplies in the US from week to week. Yes, this is a fact. Doesn't even need fact checking but I will provide a link later.

Meanwhile, it appears New England will pivot from natural gas (clean) to coal and heating oil and crude oil and diesel (dirty) if it really gets cold this year and next. 

All I can think of is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity.

Enbridge Ordered To Close Part Of Its Wisconsin Pipeline Within Three Years -- June 19, 2023

Locator: 44980ENB.
Locator: 44980COAL.

What's the difference between cyber ransom and pipeline ransom? I honestly see no difference from a "dollar" and/or business point of view. 

Link here. 

Native Americans are exacting ransom from Enbridge. Court agrees. 

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From Bloomberg Today

Link here.

Big Oil: pivots. Last hold-out -- Shell -- seals the deal.

Buffett: pivots. Sells US banks; buys Japanese "trading houses."

Biochar: ? As long as it's not called "coal" or "lignite," environmentalists and "greenies" will support coal. One even self-identifies as green man char. 

Biochar:

• just like coal, except coal burns hot and produces less smoke:

• and look at this -- biochar has more carbon content than lump coal:

• biochar being made -- clean, smoke-free, scalable, great for the Amazon River drainage system -- oh, then this popped up -- from The US Biochar Initiative:
  

Deserves A Stand-Alone Post -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44785COAL. 

This article interested me. Not. At. All. 

Anyone "surprised" by this story is a nominee for the annual Geico Rock Award.

Dog-bites-man story.

But one data point jumped out at me. Truly amazing.

I don't care about the data point from an emissions point of view.

I don't care about the data point from a political point of view.

I don't care about the data point from an investment point of view.

I only "care about" the data point as a data point that reflects the energy demand of China and what that means going forward.

And then we have India.

 The data point -- okay, there were three data points, I guess, that caught my attention:

Busy, Busy, Busy Friday -- So Much To Post -- The EU Just Can't Help Itself -- Aprll 21, 2023

Locator: 44442B.

Before we start: might the US have its first cybernetic president in 2025? Something to think about.

The EU is absolutely committed to destroying its economy. When will Daimler say enough is enough?

Link here. This was in USA Today. This is the kind of graphic Bloomberg should have posted.

• of the entire EU, only Germany makes the chart
• the US-EU industrial gap continues to widen and yet US has greatest emissions decline
• this graph is worth the subscription price of The Million Dollar Way blog!

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $78.12. Apparently ...

Natural gas: $2.239.

Monday, April 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 296 for the year
None.

Sunday, April 23, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 296 for the year
38682, conf, Whiting, LBJ 14-14HU,
36146, conf, BR, Mazamaphantom 1A MBH-ULW,

Saturday, April 22, 2023: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 294 for the year
None.

Friday, April 21, 2023: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 294 for the year
39062, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3229-2 BH,
37474, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-11C-2-3H,

RBN Energy: huge incentives, rising demand drive boom in clean ammonia project development. Link here.

For some time now, clean ammonia proponents have been talking up its potential as a very-low-carbon alternative for power plants, ships and other hydrocarbon consumers. Still, rock-solid plans for U.S. projects to produce large volumes of ammonia from clean hydrogen remained few and far between. Until lately, that is, with the recent uptick in project announcements spurred on, in large part, by the supercharged tax credits for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the newly firmed-up efforts by power generators in Japan and South Korea to make clean ammonia an important part of their fuel mix going forward. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the progress that clean ammonia has made since the IRA became law and the growing list of projects advancing to a final investment decision (FID), construction and production.

We’ll begin with a brief refresher course on what clean ammonia is, how it’s produced and what it can be used for. Then we’ll look at the primary drivers behind the development of clean ammonia production facilities (and ammonia export terminals), and after that (in Part 2) we’ll discuss in detail the bevy of U.S. projects now being planned.

The Coal Market At Work; And Cost Of Renewables In Germany -- February 15, 2023

China and coal:

Meanwhile, in Germany:

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Doing the Math

Coal: The Transitional Fuel

Investors.

COP26 (November, 2021): coal is the transitional fuel. 

Folks seem to forget that COP26 agreed that coal would be the transitional fuel.

Germany: returning to coal.

Japan: returning to nuclear but that will take time.

India: their only choice -- coal. 

It makes no sense for India to pivot to oil and / or natural gas.

Oil, globally: 50%, transportation; 50%, other uses.

Analogy:

Brazil transitioned from 19th century transportation to air. Brazil never developed a rail system like the US or Europe. Brazil went directly from 19th century transportation to air. 

Likewise, there's no reason for India to pivot / transition to ICE vehicles. Oil will simply be too expensive. Only alternative for India? Electricity for transportation. Multiple fuel sources for generating electricity and coal will be the only economic option for India.

From the IEA, 2021:

To a great extent, this is just as true for China, maybe even more so. 

Corollary: oil bulls should not look at India as a growth "center" for oil. Going forward: oil is for the elite and the rich.

Posted earlier this morning:

Link here.