The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 08/17/26

Monday, August 17, 2026

It's Hot Here In Texas -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51442TEXASHEAT.

I think we came to Texas in 2002 or thereabouts. It gets hot in the summer -- we lived in San Antonio when we first moved here and then moved to the Dallas-Fort Worth area in 2013. We have seen many, many hot days.

But never have we seen any sports activity canceled due to hot weather.

Until this week. We received notification that our granddaughter's soccer practice scheduled for later in the week had been canceled due to hot weather. Her coach sent out a message that the league had cancelled all practice this week due to the hot weather. I was quite surprised. I mentioned this to my wife and she said the temperature reached 106°F today and more of the same was forecast for the rest of the week. I had no idea it was that hot.

It's 11:40 p.m. CT right now; it's still 89°F and I doubt it will cool off much overnight. I went for a swim earlier this evening. Awesome. Really nice. But it is hot.

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Meanwhile, At The U of Penn

This is incredibly troubling, on so many levels.

Russia Is Now Importing Gasoline From India -- After Losing Refining Capacity Due To Ukranian Drone Attacks -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51441RUSSIA.

Russia: receives first gasoline cargo from India as fuel shortages spread. Link here, from Charles Kennedy.

Russia has received its first gasoline cargo from India as Ukrainian attacks knock out refining capacity and a second wave of fuel shortages spreads across at least 10 Russian regions.
The roughly 68,000-metric-ton cargo was produced by Nayara Energy at its Vadinar refinery in western India and delivered to Russia’s Arctic port of Vitino after a ship-to-ship transfer at Port Said, Egypt. Two more gasoline cargoes from India are expected to reach Russia in the coming weeks.
Russia’s gasoline shortages have now led filling stations in at least 10 regions to impose sales restrictions or run short of some grades of fuel, with shortages now reaching the Moscow region. Gasoline sales on the St. Petersburg exchange have fallen by an average 20% since the beginning of August.
Russia was already using gasoline imports from Belarus to plug domestic supply gaps. It is now bringing gasoline and diesel by sea from Asia as refinery outages cut the volume of fuel available inside the country.
Ukraine has spent the summer hammering Russia’s refining system. The latest major casualty is the 120,000-barrel-per-day Orsk refinery, which could remain offline for as long as six months after an August 11 Ukrainian attack. The shutdown has tightened fuel supplies across Russia’s Urals region.

Tuesday -- August 18, 2026

Locator: 51440B.

Economy: New York manufacturing activity accelerates. Link here. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s statewide manufacturing index of business conditions rose to 20.6, its highest reading in four years.

Factory activity in New York State grew strongly in August, according to the latest monthly edition of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions rose to 20.6, its highest reading in four years. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 12.

Russia: receives first gasoline cargo from India as fuel shortages spread. Link here, from Charles Kennedy.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.28.

New wells reporting:

Thursday, August 20, 2026: 39 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 424 for the year,

42209, conf, Murfin Drilling, CD Steffan 1-17H,
42208, conf, Murfin Drilling, CD Steffan 1-18H,
41357, conf, Whiting, Gullikson Federal 5203 42-31 3B
41158, conf, Whiting, Dobias 5203 44-32 2B,

Wednesday, August 19, 2026: 35 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 420 for the year,

None.

Tuesday, August 18, 2026: 35 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 420 for the year,

41973, conf, Devon, Thunderbolt 10-12 4H,

RBN Energy: Permian gas processing buildout continues, with a tilt toward the Delaware. Link here. Archived.

Since the start of 2022, more than 12 Bcf/d of new gas processing capacity has come online in the Permian, about half of it in the Midland Basin and half in the Delaware. That unprecedented, multibillion-dollar buildout will be continuing without let-up through early 2029, and the shift toward the gassier Delaware — seen by many operators as offering a longer runway for future growth — is picking up steam. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the latest tranche of gas processing plants under development in the Permian and what these projects reveal about production growth trends in the world’s most prolific stacked play.

Things are looking up for Permian natural gas. After an extended period of pipeline takeaway constraints and negative gas prices at the Waha Hub, the situation for producers and marketers has been improving as new takeaway capacity has come online, first in June with the official startup of the 570-MMcf/d expansion on the now-2.55-Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express (GCX). More recently, our weekly NATGAS Permian report has cited initial flows on both the Hugh Brinson Pipeline (Phase 1 capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d) and the Blackcomb Pipeline (ramping up to 2.5 Bcf/d of capacity over the next few months).

With the untangling of the takeaway logjam — and still more pipeline capacity on the way, including Hugh Brinson’s Phase 2 next year and Eiger Express in 2028 — Waha prompt-month and cash prices have turned positive, and we expect they will stay there for some time. (See our recent Fly Like an Eagle for more.)

All that’s given new confidence to crude-oil-focused producers in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, whose wells also churn out massive volumes of associated gas that needs to be run through gas processing plants. As we’ve discussed in many a blog over the past several years, operators in the Midland and Delaware basins have been in a constant struggle to stay one step ahead on the gas processing front — that is, to be sure they will have sufficient processing capacity in place as new production starts up.

If anything, that challenge has become even more, well, challenging over the past couple of years as the lead time for key, in-demand processing plant components like brazed aluminum heat exchangers (aka “cold boxes”) and turbo-expanders has increased. “Lead times definitely have gotten extended,” Pat McDonie, Targa Resources’ president of gathering and processing, said during the midstream giant’s August 6 earnings call. “A lot of it is around the electrical infrastructure for the plant. ... Frankly, we’ve adapted to that.”

With takeaway constraints easing, Waha prices well north of zero, and dry-gas production in the Permian approaching a record 23 Bcf/d, we thought it would be a good time to discuss the latest round of gas processing project announcements and what they say about where things stand — and where they are headed.

Inheritance And Estate Taxes By State -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51439ARCHIVES.

Tag: Chevron CVX

Link here.

At the state level, I'm only a spectator. I am not affected by either an inheritance tax nor an estate tax at the state level. But I am absolutely fascinated by these two taxes at the state level.

Adding salt to the wound, the state thresholds that have either of the taxes are incredibly low. Much worse than the federal thresholds.

Maryland is the only state that has both an inheritance tax and an estate tax. And already known as a highly taxed state, Illinois has an estate tax, also.

California has neither but it looks like it may institute the equivalent of an estate tax this year. Sure, it's just a one-time tax .... but ... stay tuned ....

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Just An Observation -- Good, Bad, Indifferent

Sorry. Error in the graphic above. I didn't start investing until 1980 or thereabouts, Perhaps a bit before 1980, I forget. But the point I'm making is still the same.

WTI Jumped To $85 Right At The Close Of The Market Today; Four New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Six DUCs Reported As Completed; 33 Active Rigs In The Bakken -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51438B.

AAPL: new price target from one analyst, from $260 up to $400, with a buy recommendation. Rothschild & Co Redburn said Apple is going to benefit having not spent huge amounts of money as a hyperscaler but with all the benefits. Sees Apples installed base which could result in Apple being the AI gatekeeper. Link here. At Barron's. There are going to be a lot of hyperscalers trying to make deals with Apple for its installed base, particularly with Apple's tech model (edge) and focus on security.

Neoclouds: scaling faster than hyperscalers, link here. Huge opportunities; huge risks. See disclaimer below.

Digital Brands Group can't make it in California; moving to Texas. New location, Round Rock, north of Austin.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.27. Wow. Is this going to be a slow climb to $90? Higher? Or is the strait now irrelevant?

Active rigs in the Bakken: 33 (new recent record)

Four new permits, #43216 - #43219, inclusive:

Operators: Petro-Hunt (2), Phoenix Operating, and True Oil
Fields: Little Knife (Billings), Skabo (Divide), and Bowline (McKenzie)
Comments:

True Oil has a permit for Superior Federal well, NWNE 32-148-101,

to be sited 643 FNL and 2600 FEL;

Phoenix Operating has a permit for an Akemi Ferrari well, SWSE 14-160-98,

to be sited 350 FSL and 1426 FEL;

Petro-Hunt has permits for a Kadrmas well and a BR well, NENE 10-143-98,

to be sited 350 FNL and 1057 / 1090 FEL.

Eight permits renewed:

MRO (6): Anita USA, Elva USA, Carolyn USA, Shell USA, Judith USA, and Treasure USA in NWNE 14-147-94 Dunn County; McGregory Buttes;
KODA Resources: two Stout permits, SESW 14-160-102, Divide, Fertile Valley.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

36698, 843, BR, Sanmuri 4BUTFH-ULW, McKenzie County;
36701, 500, BR, Muri 2D-UTFH, McKenzie County;
36702, 2000, BR, Muri 2E-MBH, McKenzie County;
41833, 709, BR, Muri 3E-MBH, McKenzie County;
41843, 709, BR, Muri 3C-UTFH, McKenzie County;
42422, 1,389, Kraken, Bregman 6-7-18 2H, Williams;

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Disclaimer

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Longer version here.

For Night Owls -- Update On 24-Hour Trading -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51437NASDAQ.

Some Are Hitting New Highs -- If Not Very Close -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51436OIL.

Tag: CVX PSX COP VNOM Energy Breakout

Meanwhile, BRK-B falls > 1% -- twice as much as what the S&P 500 fell (0.5%). And, of course, has never paid a dividend. Not too long ago, some analysts said BRK's oil holdings would be huge deal for BRK.

Cerebras -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51435CEREBRAS.

Tag: CBRS.

Locked in, link here.

SPR -- Oil -- Talking Head: Oil Bull On CNBC Says WTI Will Hit $100 / Barrel -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51434SPR.

Query:

Oil. SPR. Someone has written that there are laws about limits on drawing down the SPR, but a talking head on CNBC today says there is no such law. What are the facts: law or no law about drawing down the SPR below a certain level. Following talking head -- a spokesman from Rapidan Energy Group -- on CNBC moments ago.

Reply:

Discouraging: Cramer And Carl Q Trying To Talk The Market Down -- August 17, 2026

Locator: 51433CRAMER.

For the extended family, not the general reader of the blog. These are not recommendations for others. See disclaimer. This is the first of several big days for investing this month.

Purchases for three grandchildren, 30 year rolling horizon:

AVGO, BNY, PLTR, AMD, and parking cash in SCHB, SCHD.
it's really, really difficult not to add more energy stocks but rules won't allow me.
the rules also don't allow me to purchase more AAPL, but that's also very difficult

I opened a position in Cerebras last week. I see it's up $30 today.

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Back To Cramer Et Al

US debt: will hit $40 trillion today.

Spider-Man:

$2 billion globally after three weeks; 2nd fastest ever;
fastest: $2 billion in 11 days; Avengers: Endgame, currently at $2.8 billion
adjusted for inflation only 8 movies have made $2 billion

Oman and Trump:

I think we're long past "it's now time to walk softly and carry a big stick" mentality
"shit or get off the pot"
TACO
did the administration lose a lot of credibility when Trump snuck (sneaked? both are correct) out of Turkey?

Only Carl Q and Cramer: Faber must have the morning off.

Cramer: highlights the Bakken! Says the Bakken is back!

Cramer and Q: concerned about too much borrowing by the hyperscalers. Time will tell.

You can howl at the wind, AI is here to stay.

Sandisk CEO: "We've just seen an explosion in the market around inference."

Now Cramer switches to talking up the industry.

Appears to depend on the company.

For example: Cramer says if one is selling Sandisk, one is an "idiot." His word, not mine. Says Western Digital needs to go higher (which he owns). "Up 195% and may not be done."

The one I missed: Bloom Energy.

Pre-market: oil and tech are up. NASDAQ up; Dow down.

Pre-market:

CAT is up a bit.
SCCO up almost 2%.
GLW up almost 1.7%.

Wow, not really talking up the chips, especially Nvidia, SpaceX,

Musk will be the biggest buyer of Nvidia's Vera Rubin, but also will need AMD.

AMD down slightly in pre-market.

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Disclaimer

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Longer version here.

Production Data For The Incredible MRO Wells On The Winona Pad Have Been Updated; Some Were Offline For A Few Months; Now, Back Online --

Locator: 51432WINONA.

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked here, FAQ #9.

Before looking at the Winona pad wells, take a look at this well in the same drilling unit, note the file no (33492) and the spud date (6/17); first month of production, 57,224 over 18 days extrapolates to 95K over 30 days.

33492, 6,637, MRO, Mamie USA 21-1TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 836K 6/26;

Some of the Winona pad wells:

37089, 5,502, MRO, Jonah USA ... 2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 105K 2/21; 53K over 17 days extrapolates to 93,500 bbls over 30 days; see this post; cum 203K 4/21; t1/21; cum 395K 4/23; cum 424K 3/24; cum 455K 6/26; has been offline four five months, now returning to production 6/26;
36221, drl/NC-->6,420, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, 33-053-08982, Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K 2/21; initial production, 84K over 25 days extrapolates to 100,800 bbls crude oil over 30 days; fracked 11/22/20 - 12/2/20; 8 million gallons of water; 52% fresh water by mass; 30% produced water by mass; see this post; cum 276K 7/21; came off line 7/21; t1/21; cum 434K 4/23; 462K 3/24; cum 180K 6/26; on line for one year;
36222, 7,083, MRO, Morsette USA 11-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/21; cum 188K 4/21; t1/21; cum 368K 4/23; cum 385K 3/24; cum 409K 6/26; has been offline four five months, now returning to production 6/26;
36223, 7,146, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, first production, 1/21; t12/20; cum 130K 2/21; cum 229K 4/21; cum 436K 4/23; cum 466K 3/24; cum 510K 6/26; was offline a couple of months in early 2026; now back online;
***33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 596K 2/21; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; off line 3/20; back on line 8/20; nice return to production; off line 1/21 back on line 2/21; cum 711K 4/23; cum 744K 3/24; cum 784K 6/26;
33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 479K 2/21; back on line 8/20; production okay; off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; off line 7/21; cum 486K 7/21; t3/18; cum 531K 4/23; cum 549K 3/24; cum 577K 6/26;
33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 565K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t3/18; cum 650K 4/23; cum 697K 3/24; cum 756K 6/26;
33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 365K 2/21; did not come off line; but then came off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21; t4/18; cum 416K 4/23; cum 429K 3/24; cum 415K 6/26;

The Strait Of Hormuz An American Territory? And WTI Drops In Price? August 17, 2026

Locator: 51431B.

CEO of drones: from TWSJ today -- hopefully Hegseth is watching --

New Dems: eliminate ICE, defund the police, and shut-down the US Senate -- mainstream Dems not so sure.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.95. President Trump considering declaring the Strait of Hormuz an American territory and the price of WTI drops.