The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/21/21

Sunday, February 21, 2021

CLR's Gordon Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- February 21, 2021

A mix of wells; good to excellent wells. Many permits expired. Will they be renewed?

A WPX Good Voice Just Went Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2021

This page won't be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere. This well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

27068, 502, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HD, Squaw Creek, t11/14; cum 514K 12/20; off line while neighboring wells fracked; off line for about five months; now back on line as of 1/19; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2946	2921	488	7915	6873	352
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	3089	3082	379	8096	7406	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	4195	4217	417	9242	8418	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	3418	3442	370	8057	7329	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	4933	4865	658	11552	10652	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	5065	5059	938	9464	8534	15

Reminder: Focus On Fracking Weekly Update Should Be Released Later Tonight -- February 21, 2021

Link here.

Discrepancy In CDC Vaccination Data -- February 21, 2021

This is the vaccine data I posted this past week. I just added the Sunday, February 21, 2021, data a minute ago from this site.

		A	B	C	D
		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before
Sunday	February 21, 2021	75,204,965	-3,923,530	63,090,634	1,801,134
Saturday	February 20, 2021	79,128,495	976,000	61,289,500	1,704,457
Friday	February 19, 2021	78,152,495	2,864,685	59,585,043	1,651,608
Thursday	February 18, 2021	75,287,810	1,814,918	57,933,435	1,651,608
Wednesday	February 17, 2021	72,423,125	765,150	56,281,827	1,061,463
Tuesday	February 16, 2021	71,657,975	800,088	55,220,364	1,168,004
Monday no data holiday	February 15, 2021	70,857,888	800,088	54,052,360	1,168,004
Sunday	February 14, 2021	70,057,800	521,538	52,884,356	2,236,899
Saturday estimate	February 13, 2021	69,536,263	521,538	50,647,457	2,236,899

Here's a screen shot of today's data from the linked CDC site:

Today's CDC data says 75,204,965 doses were distributed. In fact, we hit 75 million distributed doses last Thursday, and had reached 79 million yesterday, Saturday, from the same CDC source.

Today, the number decreased by 3.9 million doses.

Pemex's Oil Production -- Update -- February 21, 2021

Some years ago I was taken to task by a reader suggesting I did not know the difference between petroleum and oil (which, at that time, was true ... LOL).

But it turns out I might not have been the only one. Irina Slav is pointing out that Mexico is reporting its crude oil production has increased year-over-year.

It turns out there's a bit of smoke and mirrors here.

Mexico’s Pemex reported its oil production grew last year, for the first time in fifteen years. However, there’s a big catch—the increase was only a result of how the company is counting barrels, Bloomberg reports.

And anyone trying to compare production figures from year to year will run into a problem of comparing apples to oranges.

The change in calculations is pretty straightforward; Pemex simply started adding gas condensate output to the total crude oil production it counts.

Without condensates, Pemex and its partners produced 1.66 million bpd of oil last year, down 1 percent on 2019.

With condensates, oil production was 0.23 percent higher last year.

The boost was made possible by new condensate discoveries that added 46,000 barrels daily to Pemex’s condensate production: a twofold increase. A positive as this is, it is questionable whether the condensate production increase should actually count towards the company’s total oil production, which it has been struggling to boost after a persistent decline.

Global Warming Scam In One Graphic -- Sunday, February 21, 2021

Global warming scam:

Texas natural gas, ATMOS, first question: to whom does ATMOS owe $3.5 billion? Can you say Jerry Jones and Comstock?

Crude oil rally: GS raises Brent to $75:

For Investors, The Tectonic Plates Are Separating-- February 21, 2021

It will take a decade to play out but this is going to be the energy story of the 2020's.

We'll sort it out later but there are seven (?) global integrated oil E&P companies. Three of them American (?); four of them European (?). The European majors have declared for "renewable energy." At least one American company has declared for "fossil fuel" and my hunch, the other two will follow.

If that's (generally) accurate, it means that the three American companies will have much less competition. Instead of seven competitors, "they" may be down to three.

As an investor, if you want to remain invested in pure-play fossil fuel at the "global" level, you have three choices. If you like renewable energy, you have four other choices.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

CLR Inventory -- February 21, 2021

I will add to these as I find them. This is just scratching the surface.

CLR is putting together massive projects: 36 to 56 wells in a "drilling unit," and assigning two rigs to drill the wells. The Brooklyn oil field project was the first.

Angus Federal/Simmental Federal.

Morris / Carson Peak.

Long Creek Unit.

Norfolk.

Hartman.

Flint Chips / Dennis.

Kukla.

Candee.

Lundberg Federal.

Kate / Rodney.

Gordon Federal.

Bailey/Wiley.

Palmer / Palmer Federal.

Shelby, Happiness By The Mile, Part 2 -- February 21, 2021

This is so cool. Yesterday, we saw part 1. Today, part 2. Shelby and Dakota are on their way to North Dakota, traveling east from Portland,OR.

North Dakota via Fourth of July Pass in Idaho. Please watch the video and send Shelby a message. At 10:00 in the video, "we just made it to North Dakota not too long ago." It looks like her route was I-84 to I-90 in Washington/Idaho/Montana, and then to I-94 in North Dakota. It's -22°F. Yes, she entered North Dakota at Dickinson, not Williston. Too bad.

Anyways.

There's a big difference between pilots and truck drivers. I appreciate the latter more. Pilots don't work on their aircraft. I think Sophia needs to drive trucks for two years between high school and college.

I don't know if there's anything I enjoy more than her videos. What an upbeat, optimistic attitude. The music is great.

What I enjoy most: seeing people helping people. If I didn't have Sophia, I would be on the road today. [For newbies, Sophia is our youngest granddaughter, age six years old.]

There's only one song that fits:

Me and Bobby McGee, Janis Joplin

The Sunday Market Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 21, 2021

The Texas Dairy Queen, 2021, the recent unfortunate event: this is the movie I'm watching.

Logistics: local grocers opened again on Thursday, about three days ago. By the time I got there, much was sold out. The grocers tossed out millions of dollars of refrigerated and frozen items. Shortages everywhere. I bet everything at the grocer will be back to normal by Wednesday this week, if not sooner.

Due to overwhelming demand, the blog will now have a "market blog" on Sundays, to help investors (and traders) get ready for the new week.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Bubbles:

Inflation: an investor's dream, from The WSJ:

Link here.

JPM:

Small business under Biden, no gulag experience, but a person of color:

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My Alma Mater

I hope these folks know how fortunate they are. This is absolutely incredible. What I like best: no fancy lettering, no fancy logo, simply "USC."

Sing, Sing, Sing, USC Marching Band At Trafalgar Square
Tusk

Looking back on my life, I find it absolutely amazing I was accepted by USC for my graduate studies; absolutely amazing. I wish I could repay them what they "gave" me. My four years cost me absolutely nothing, a full scholarship including room and board. Had it not been for USC, I would not have met my Hispanic-Japanese wife. Had it not been for USC, I never would have seen the best of California during the best of times. Wow, it was a great period in my life. I still remember the first Trader Joe's. My roommate introduced me to southern California.

If I had to connect the dots, how I got from there to there, these are the dots:

first grade: leading my group in a drawing of an igloo; a group project;
second grade: the most beautiful teacher in the world, Ms Priebe, who unfortunately married while I was a second grader;
fifth grade: Ms Ghandi, who I never knew was something other than Norwegian, despite her name and her dark skin;
high school: Ms JoAnn Ashmore, my mentor; Mr Del Easton, my nemesis; Mr Olson, my idol (think "John Wayne")
Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD
my mother, sending me a clipping about medical school scholarships
USC

Interestingly enough, the Air Force did not enter into this in the same way as the other "dots" did. I can't explain that. The USAF was incredibly important but it seemed to be a "vehicle" but not much else. By the time I was in the USAF, my moral compass was set, set by the "dots" listed above.

Smart Phones And Health -- February 21, 2021

NASCAR: running now.

Apple: I don't know if folks are following this story. I posted it some time ago. When Tim Cook was asked what Apple's legacy would be fifty years from now, he said, "health and wellness." From February 16, 2021, on the blog:

Apple: Apple's legacy 50 years from now? Health and wellness, led by the Apple Watch. Link here to Inc. Tim Cook doesn't mention the autonomous vehicle. At least not in the article.

So, now this, link to The Wall Street Journal;

I wonder if that was the problem? IBM's "Watson Health" was run on a wall-size screen; Apple's ran its app on a watch. A wristwatch. The number one digital wristwatch in the world.

Covid, Propane, Insanity And All That Jazz -- February 21, 2021

The Israeli vaccine, link here:

Japan update:

US update:

And, of course that will lead to an increase in oil demand:

Einstein's definition of insanity:

The Next Big Thing -- Pick-Ups With Generators -- Tesla Has Them Built-In, Of Course, But Diesel Ford Has A Better Idea -- February 21, 2021

One of my favorite sections within the blog is "the next big thing." It started with Netflix about ten years ago.

Now, today, we have a new "next big thing" to add to the list: F-150 pick-ups with self-contained generators that can power a house. A fleet of F-150s could power a small city.

From The Detroit Press: priceless marketing. Better than a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl. If this doesn't move F-150's, I don't know what will. I can't wait to get one for our new grandsons.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 21, 2021

Note: BR's "Cherry pad" is tracked here.

The wells:

37639, conf, BR, Cherry Ice Cream 1V TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
37305, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,
35952, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-2TFH, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	16445	2773
11-2020	19595	11640
10-2020	9839	20739
9-2020	11773	22567
8-2020	0	96

37715, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2, Oakdale,
37638, conf, BR, Cherry Daquiri 1W MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
37637, conf, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
37636, conf, BR, Cherry Claire 1Y MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
37635, conf, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
37304, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, no production data,
37097, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6, Cherry Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	23029	31868
11-2020	20129	25333
10-2020	5276	7866
9-2020	28310	22892
8-2020	6659	2650

37096, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-LE-149-99-1201H-1, Cherry Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	21890	32467
11-2020	24741	30106
10-2020	27057	39663
9-2020	31955	28816
8-2020	13662	5530

35951, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-1H, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	15875	2627
11-2020	23190	9401
10-2020	12959	24804
9-2020	274	0
8-2020	16918	19638

35710, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-2H, Grinnell,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	12914	53928
11-2020	15938	52882
10-2020	16299	53102
9-2020	31823	79754
8-2020	17049	44474

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 21, 2021

March 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year.

37639, conf, BR, Cherry Ice Cream 1V TFH,
37305, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ,
35952, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-2TFH,

Sunday, February 28, 2021: 23 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year.

37715, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2,
37638, conf, BR, Cherry Daquiri 1W MBH,
37637, conf, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH,
37636, conf, BR, Cherry Claire 1Y MBH,
37635, conf, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH,
37304, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL,
37097, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6,

Saturday, February 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.

None.

Friday, February 26, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.

None.

Thursday, February 25, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.

None.

Wednesday, February 24, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.

37096, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-LE-149-99-1201H-1,

Tuesday, February 23, 2021: 15 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 48 for the year.

35951, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-1H,
35710, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-2H,

Monday, February 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.

None.

Sunday, February 21, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.

None.

Saturday, February 20, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.

None.

The Great American Spirit -- February 21, 2021

Hardest hit city in Texas? Houston.

Earlier in the week, before we had power back on, I saw that this most recent unfavorable event would be forgotten in two weeks and everything would be back to "Covid-19 normal" in two months (or did I say one month? I forget).

From The WSJ today which means the story was written one to two days ago.

When I say this will be forgotten two weeks from now, I'm not talking about the horrendous challenges faced by those directly hit. Those folks will be affected for months; some will have faced unimaginable tragedies (including deaths) but the media will have moved on to something else two weeks from now.

To put this in perspective, the Japanese have still not "contained" Fukishima from 2011, ten years ago, and that directly affected a lot fewer people. It should be noted that humans built nuclear reactors in the most volcanically-active nation and did not protect at least one nuclear reactor from tsunamis, a well-known phenomenon in that region of the world. And, of course, the irony, the only nation to have been hit by two nuclear events during wartime

Reminders -- Television -- February 21, 2021

NASCAR: today. Early afternoon. Start times will vary depending on time zone. I doubt it will be aired in California.

All Creatures Great and Small: 8:00 p.m. tonight on PBS. Check local listings; time could be wrong. I was fortunate enough to visit the James Herriot (two-r's; one-t) museum some decades ago. One of my favorite television shows while stationed in England: All Creatures Great and Small.

Tennis: Novak schools Daniil. Spelling?

Work today: still cleaning up after the water damage. Many, many silver linings. I still haven't had the heat on the apartment since it went out Monday morning almost a week ago, except for a 8-hour spell Thursday night, I believe. Can't keep track of the days.

Lamb: from a reader. He couldn't find milk, butter, eggs at his local grocer the other day, but he found lamb. And his Weber. The before photo was posted yesterday. This is the "after" photo:

This is so incredibly perfect. Truly amazing. And nothing but a Weber.

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Sophia's Duolingo / Spanish Progress Report

Just arrived in my mailbox a few minutes ago. I think Duolingo says Sophia has learned 175+ words. We haven't missed one day since starting; around 175 consecutive days. Hmmm? Averaging one word per day:

The Bakken -- A Reminder -- Running The Numbers -- February 21, 2021

Running the numbers.

The Bakken holds 500 billion bbls of OOIP. Ten percent is definitely recoverable. Harold Hamm once suggested the Bakken held upwards of one trillion bbls of OOIP but then backed off. The "500" number comes from a paper written years ago, never vetted, never published. With new data, one does wonder if 500 is off by half.

Early in the boom, it was expected that 1 - 3% of OOIP would be recovered/produced through primary production. It didn't take long for Whiting to show that 10% was easily achievable, and now there are estimates that percent recoverable through primary production could be much, much higher. But let's stick with the conservative numbers.

OOIP: 500 billion bbls
primary production, 10%: 50 billion bbls
Bakken production: one million bbls / day = 365 million bbls/year
do the math: (50 billion bbls ) / (365 million bbls/year) = 50,000 / 365 = 140 years of drilling and CBR

Now let's assume primary production is 20% and let's assume OOIP remains the same. Let's assume that production drops to an average of 250 million bbls/year for various reasons (Biden policies; EVs; pipelines shut down, etc):

500 billion x 0.2 = 100 billion bbls
100 billion bbls / (250 million bbls/years) = 400 years and CBR

The law of big numbers.

Sunday Morning Coming Down -- February 21, 2021

Wow, it could be a really, really busy day of blogging. I can hardly wait to get started. I have two choices: really long posts with lots of notes / links and or many short posts so stuff doesn't get lost. I really don't know what to do. So, let's get started and see what happens.

Texas freeze: for the record, our power went out at 2:02 a.m. (just after midnight) on Monday morning, February 15, 2021, a holiday of some sort. I don't recall for sure but I think the power for our apartment complex came back on Thursday, February 18, 2021.

For the record I have not turned on the heat in this apartment since the power went off last Monday except for a short spell -- I believe it was Thursday night -- but that was it. I think it gets down to about 45°F at night -- no, I do not get up in the middle of the night to check. I know it doesn't get below 32°F because my bedtime beverage does not freeze. One can use this method to estimate the ambient temperature when it gets really cold in your house.

I think it's generally about 54°F in the evening before going to bed.

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Wind

The facts are in: the primary and immediate cause of this unfavorable event -- wind turbines that froze. We'll provide links later. Where is Richard Feynman when we need him?

There will be six months worth of state and federal investigations, and in the end, we will learn that had it not been for wind turbines and global warming it would have been much worse. And, of course, it occurred while the country was focused on the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump, the most acquitted president in history, even more so that Bill Clinton.

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Cartoons

The cartoons over at PowerLine are so good this week, I may post one cartoon from the selection each day. We'll see. Again, links later.

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The Market

When I last watched CNBC the new meme: rising interest rates (10-year Treasuries and 30-year Treasuries) will put a damper on stocks. That's true for the short term, let's say from six months to a year; that's not true over the long term, let's say fifteen to thirty years. There's a difference between trading and investing. Again, links coming.

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The Bakken

Running the numbers.

OOIP: 500 billion bbls
primary production, 10%: 50 billion bbls
Bakken production: one million bbls / day = 365 million bbls/year
do the math: (50 billion bbls ) / (365 million bbls/year) = 50,000 / 365 = 140 years of drilling and CBR

500 billion x 0.2 = 100 billion bbls
100 billion bbls / (250 million bbls/years) = 400 years and CBR

The law of big numbers.

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We Will Never See Snow Again

For mineral owners, would you like to see 10 years of drilling activity with an average ND light sweet oil pegged at an average of $33/bbl, or 150 years of ND light sweet oil pegged at an average of $50/bbl? Asking for a friend. I laugh when I hear folks tell me that a two-rig program in the Powder River Basin is not aggressive enough.

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We Will Never See Snow Again

EOG's LR Wells Have Been Updated -- February 21, 2021

EOG's Liberty LR (long-reach) wells have been updated. A few new wells have been completed since last updated.

Whiting's Kannianen Wells In The Sanish Oil Field Have Been Updated -- February 21, 2021

Whiting's Kannianen wells in the Sanish oil field have all been updated; they are tracked here.

All of these wells are back on line and producing, except for two which are now AB.

The Oasis Lawlar Wells In North Tobacco Garden Have Been Updated -- February 21, 2021

The Oasis Lawlar wells in North Tobacco Garden have been updated. It appears all of these wells have now been completed, IPs reported, and actively producing, except for the original Lawlar well which is now AB.

Lots Of Oasis Activity In Willow Creek -- February 21, 2021

An area of interest; look how busy it is:

Area A:

34107,PNC, Wren Federal .. 11-35 8B,
34112,PNC, Fraser Federal .. 11-35 2BX,
34110,PNC, Borden Federal .. 11-35 3B,
34109, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 11-35 3B, Willow Creek,
34108, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 11-35 4B, Willow Creek,
37914, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 11-35 3BR, Willow Creek,
37915, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 11-35 4BR, Willow Creek,

Area B:

34337,PNC, Borden Federal .. 14-36 2BX,
34336, drl/drl, Oasis, Wren Federal 5300 14-36 9B, Willow Creek,
34338, loc/loc, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 14-36 3B, Willow Creek,
34340, PNC, Borden Federal .. 14-36 5T,
34339, ros, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 14-36 9B, Willow Creek,

Area C:

34137, PNC, Fraser ... 5300 32-38 8T,
34136, loc/loc, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 9B, Willow Creek,
34135, loc/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX, Camp,
34134, loc/loc, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 11B, Willow Creek,

34133, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 32-35 4B, Willow Creek,
34132, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 32-35 5B, Willow Creek,
34131, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5B Willow Creek,
34130, loc/loc, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 32-35 12T, Willow Creek,
37916, drl/drl, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5BR, Willow Creek,

38008, drl/drl, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 6B, Willow Creek,
34222, drl/drl, Oasis, Cliff Federal 5300 43-35 4B, Willow Creek,
37266, loc/drl, Oasis, Cliff Federal 5300 43-35 5B, Willow Creek,

Area D:

34234, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 34-36 8B, Willow Creek,
34235, drl/drl, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 34-36 7B, Willow Creek,
34236, loc/drl, Oasis, Borden Federal 5300 34-36 6BX, Willow Creek,

The CLR Boulder Wells In Banks Oil Field Are All Off-Line -- February 21, 2021

The Boulder and Boulder Federal wells are tracked here. They have all come off line recently. I don't see any activity in the immediate area that might explain this. There are several wells to the east that have recently been fracked but the timing wouldn't seem to explain why the Boulder wells are off line.

Another CLR Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2021