So Much Happening -- But I Need To Go For A Bike Ride -- Laser-Focused On Dividends -- October 4, 2022

 EPD: declares dividend. No change in dividend. Record date, Halloween, 10/31/22 and pay date, 11/14/22. Now paying about 7.7%. And depending when one bought EPD originally, the yield may be a whole lot greater.

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Loretta Lynn

From wiki:

As of 2022, Lynn was the most awarded female country recording artist, and the only female ACM Artist of the Decade (1970s). Lynn scored 24 No. 1 hit singles and 11 number one albums. She ended 57 years of touring on the road after she suffered a stroke in 2017 and then broke her hip in 2018. 

I guess it will be awhile for Taylor Swift and Beyonce to catch up, and, of course, Cher never will.  

How does one produce that many albums? My hunch: she thought about her coal-mining dad who died of black lung disease at age 52 and knew that whatever she was doing was "less" than what her dad did for her. If that makes sense.

My parents were almost "exact" contemporaries of Loretta Lynn. My dad was born in 1922 and my mother was born in 1926, or thereabouts. Loretta Lynn was born in 1932.

I never listened to any music growing up in Williston until I got my driver's license, a 1948 Willys jeep, and a girlfriend in 1967 or thereabouts.

I guess Loretta Lynn's fame came a bit later. 

I still have my driver's license. My brother got my jeep. And someone from Fargo, ND, got my girlfriend.

Wow, that sounds like a country song. 

I guess my favorite memories of Loretta Lynn are those when she was with Conway Twitty.

The discography of Conway Twitty and Loretta Lynn consists of 10 studio albums, seven compilation albums, 13 singles, and two charted B-sides. 

While signed to Decca and MCA as solo artists, Twitty and Lynn charted 12 duet singles in the top ten of the Billboard Hot Country Singles chart, including five number one hits.

Definitely not one of my favorite of her duets but it reminds me of one of the women in my past. P--  had the most sexy phone voice. And that was worth a lot. 

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Back Street Affair

As I've gotten older, I've become less interested in the private lives of celebrities.

 
I would have to run through the discography but it seems the majority of Loretta Lynn - Conway Twitty duets had to do with infidelity.

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Estate Planning

One great thing about long bike rides.

Estate planning.

Got it figured out.  

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Spouses Drive Spouses Nuts

Life was so much easier last month -- the entire month -- when my wife was out visiting friends and family in southern California. 

This is turning into a Neil Simon play.

What Warren Buffett Sees -- October 4, 2022

I normally don't pay much attention to API data, rather the EIA data that comes out a day later.

Earlier I posted: 

API: reported a "surprise" draw .... well, check it out for yourself ... there's a huge data point that blows me away ... and I think Warren Buffett sees it, also. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

Let's look at that one data point that blows me away:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise draw this week for crude oil of 1.770 million barrels, while analysts predicted a build of 333,000 barrels. U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 21 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly eight times that figure.

The draw comes even as the Department of Energy released 6.2 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending September 30 that left the SPR with 416.4 million barrels.

In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 4.150 million barrels after analysts had predicted a small build of 333,000 barrels.

Did you catch it?

U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 21 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly eight times that figure.

From my perspective, in the big scheme of things, "oil" seems fairly well balanced -- oil supply / oil demand -- based on price of gasoline and the number of days of supply for US crude oil, and yet, and yet, and yet, look at all the oil that was released from the SPR this past summer ... and gasoline is still over $3.00 / gallon in most of the US and trending toward $8 / gallon in California.

Imagine what would have happened had the US not released a million bbls of crude oil from the SPR every day this past summer.

Sure, I know a lot of that oil was exported to Europe -- and that's the SecEnergy's argument -- which means she doesn't understand the concept of "commodity." 

Cut exports to Europe, Brent surges in price, and WTI follows. 

And US operators aren't interested in making up any shortfall; US operators are laser-focused on free cash flow. 

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While Traders Were Dumping Oil ...

... Buffett bought another 5.99 million shares of OXY. And more CVX.

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What Else Warren Buffett Sees

Link here.

Arguably nothing is more important than earnings growth, as surging profit levels is what most investors are after. For growth investors, double-digit earnings growth is highly preferable, as it is often perceived as an indication of strong prospects (and stock price gains) for the company under consideration. While the historical EPS growth rate for Chevron is 8.4%, investors should actually focus on the projected growth. The company's EPS is expected to grow 126% this year, crushing the industry average, which calls for EPS growth of 122%.

Is anyone paying attention?

And this analysis / article was written before the announcement that OPEC was going to cut production.

And, of course, if anyone needs a reminder:

• Russian exports will soon plummet;
• US shale cannot make up the shortfall that will be caused by the OPEC cut in production;
• China is about to "open up";
• as the Europeans begin to freeze this winter, they will start burning more oil to make heat.

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What Else Warren Buffett Sees

There's at least one more thing that Warren Buffett sees.

I'll leave this one for later. Let readers think about it. 

Actually I can come up with at least two more reasons why Buffett is betting $25 billion on CVX and OXY.

Hess With Four New Permits; Significant Drop In Number Of Active Rigs -- October 4, 2022

API: reported a "surprise" draw .... well, check it out for yourself ... there's a huge data point that blows me away ... and I think Warren Buffett sees it, also. We'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

ISO NE: renewables now accounting for a paltry three percent of the resource mix in New England. Incredible. Fortunately demand is low.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41. A huge drop from the 45 - 47 we've been seeing. We're now in a new quarter, and winter is coming.

WTI: $86.52.

Natural gas: $6.837

Four new oil and gas permits, #39289 - #39292, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4)
• Fields: Ray (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four GO-Tong Trust A wells, NENW 20-157-96; 
• to be sited 737 FNL and between 1630 FWL and 1729 FWL

Eight permits renewed:

• Enerplus (6): a shoal (type of sandbar), a fjord, a hogback (geologic: outcropping), an arroyo, a barchan (a type of sand dune), and a cirque (glacial craters carved into mountains) permit, all in McKenzie counties:
• BR (2): two Lillibridge permits, McKenzie County

Eight permits canceled:

• Enerplus: six LK-Bice permits, an LK-Olson permit; and a Kudo permit, all in Dunn County

It Appears The Bear Market Is Over. Recession? What? Me Worry? October 4, 2022

There are indications that the best opportunity in quite some time for investing has just come to an end. 

• the best single indicator? Recent articles about Warren Buffet.
  

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

WTI: up another 3.3%; up $2.75; trading at $86.37.

• OPEC considering two-million-bopd cut?
• US shale can't make up that shortfall.
• just how big are oil profits going to be? More on that later.   

New Hampshire: LNG prices soar; electricity consumers see double

• link here;
• from the article:

When talk turns to electricity bills, fear sparks and eyes roll. Consumers here and across New Hampshire feel squeezed, and some are choosing whether to postpone making essential payments.

blockquote>“A 112% increase is ridiculous. It’s either pay this on time or that on time,” said a waitress in Tilton, a town of 3,800 on the Winnipesaukee River.Because her earnings are unpredictable and her job is not guaranteed, she is nervous about rocketing costs. The price of powering her home recently jumped from $225 to $500 a month, she said. It’s tough to decide: “Do I make my car payments, or pay my electric bill?”

Covid-19: just ordered this book; published/released today, October 4, 2022.
excerpt here;

Twitter: Elon Musk says he will purchase at original offer price. 

Biggest story of the day? Link here.

• Micron will spend up to $100 billion over at least the next two decades building a new computer chip factory in upstate New York
• this is such a huge story on so many levels;
• again, for investors, an open-book test;
• go to the link and loook at how big this story is; it's simply incredible. 
• will post later as a stand-alone post;

Streaming: by the way, there was a huge story on "streaming" also

• don't remember what it was;
• can't recall if I posted it?
• when I find it, I will let you all know
• but a lot of things have been percolating this past two months, 3Q22 -- now we enter 4Q22.

To Infinity And Beyond -- October 4, 2022

This is pretty funny. Last week, when the meeting was announced, I sent a note in jest to a reader that  before it was all over, OPEC would be discussing a 2.5-million-bopd cut. 

LOL.

It looks like we're getting there:

A Closer Look At Hess' Proposal For Seven Wells On Each Of Two New Drilling Units -- October 4, 2022

Case 29639: 

This is a case, not a permit:

Application of Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC for an order amending the applicable orders for the Beaver Lodge-Bakken Pool, Williams County, ND, to (i) establish two overlapping laydown 1280-acre spacing units described as Sections 3 and 4; and Sections 9 and 10, T.156N., R.95W., and authorize seven horizontal wells to be drilled on each such unit; (ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 3, 4, 9 and 10, T.156N., R.95W., and authorize one horizontal well to be drilled on such unit; and (iii) for such other relief as may be appropriate. 

 Existing well of interest:

• 16721, 152, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0904H-1, Beaver Lodge, t3/08; cum 134K 8/22

The graphics:

Actually, Governor Newsom Can Do Somthing About High Price Of Gasoline -- October 4, 2022

From The Los Angeles Times today:

Officials can’t do much about soaring gas prices:

California is getting another reminder of the volatility of its energy supply as shutdowns at several oil refineries have sent gas prices spiking. 

Five or six plants are simultaneously dealing with maintenance-related shutdowns, leaving limited supplies of the special blend of gasoline mandated by California to reduce pollution. 

And unlike the spike in gasoline costs this summer, Californians and some of its western neighbors are alone facing the recent rise in gasoline prices, underscoring yet again the fragility of the state’s transitioning energy markets.

While Gov. Gavin Newsom responded last week to the drastic increases in fuel costs by jump-starting the state’s shift to cheaper, winter-blend gasoline, energy experts say it could still be weeks until drivers start to feel some real relief at the pump.

The article began:

Officials can’t do much about soaring gas prices.

 In fact, they can: with a stroke of the pen, they can cut prices by $1.51 per gallon.

Earlier this morning I posted:

Normally I don't post links to ZeroHedge, but this is a great op-ed. 

Link here.

From the article:

Tax hikes to lower gas prices? Bring them on.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is lashing out at oil companies who he says are “fleecing” Californians with gasoline prices that are rising disproportionately in the Golden State.

“The fact is, they’re ripping you off. Their record profits are coming at your expense,” Newsom said in a scathing video posted to Twitter Friday in which the governor called for a new windfall tax on oil companies.

 Let’s look at the cost of gas at the California pump again.

 A report from Stillwater Associates last year found that California consumers were paying an extra $1.19 a gallon. This year the added costs include a 51 cent state excise tax, an 18 cent sales tax, 20 cents for Fuels Under the Cap, part of the state’s corrupt environmental cap and trade program and 17 cents for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The Los Angeles Times must be reading the blog.

For Investors, It's An Open-Book Test -- October 4, 2022

Link here. See also the Ukraine update at this post, from earlier today.

In one-to-two years, Ukraine will be part of NATO. Or ground zero.

Gen-Zers and Millennials -- October 4, 2022

Fascinating article.

DNYUZ: at NYU, students were failing organic chemistry. Who was to blame?

Link here.

In the field of organic chemistry, Maitland Jones Jr. has a storied reputation. He taught the subject for decades, first at Princeton and then at New York University, and wrote an influential textbook. He received awards for his teaching, as well as recognition as one of N.Y.U.’s coolest professors.

But last spring, as the campus emerged from pandemic restrictions, 82 of his 350 students signed a petition against him.

Students said the high-stakes course — notorious for ending many a dream of medical school — was too hard, blaming Dr. Jones for their poor test scores.

The professor defended his standards. But just before the start of the fall semester, university deans terminated Dr. Jones’s contract.

The officials also had tried to placate the students by offering to review their grades and allowing them to withdraw from the class retroactively. The chemistry department’s chairman, Mark E. Tuckerman, said the unusual offer to withdraw was a “one-time exception granted to students by the dean of the college.”

Marc A. Walters, director of undergraduate studies in the chemistry department, summed up the situation in an email to Dr. Jones, before his firing.

He said the plan would “extend a gentle but firm hand to the students and those who pay the tuition bills,” an apparent reference to parents. 

This one unhappy chemistry class could be a case study of the pressures on higher education as it tries to handle its Gen-Z student body. Should universities ease pressure on students, many of whom are still coping with the pandemic’s effects on their mental health and schooling? How should universities respond to the increasing number of complaints by students against professors? Do students have too much power over contract faculty members, who do not have the protections of tenure?

Of all the science courses I took in college, organic chemistry was one of the easiest, though I hated "lab." If these students cannot handle organic chemistry, they will struggle in medical school. But note this: once accepted to medical school, you will graduate. Period. Dot. No one who really wants the "M.D. degree" will wash out of medical school. 

One Can't Tell Me Warren Buffett Didn't Know This -- October 4. 2022

Link here.

From HartEnergy:

• details:
• Gomez field
• 22,124 contiguous net-acre position
  
• estimate: between $100 million and $500 million
• average daily production: 1,280 boepd
• next 12-month cash flow estimate: $7.6 million
• at mid-point, $250 million
• $250 million / 22,124 acres = $12,000 / acre
• $250 million / 1,280 boepd = $20,000 / boepd

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Governor Newsom And California

Normally I don't post links to ZeroHedge, but this is a great op-ed. 

Link here.

From the article:

Tax hikes to lower gas prices? Bring them on.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is lashing out at oil companies who he says are “fleecing” Californians with gasoline prices that are rising disproportionately in the Golden State.

“The fact is, they’re ripping you off. Their record profits are coming at your expense,” Newsom said in a scathing video posted to Twitter Friday in which the governor called for a new windfall tax on oil companies.

 Let’s look at the cost of gas at the California pump again.

 A report from Stillwater Associates last year found that California consumers were paying an extra $1.19 a gallon. This year the added costs include a 51 cent state excise tax, an 18 cent sales tax, 20 cents for Fuels Under the Cap, part of the state’s corrupt environmental cap and trade program and 17 cents for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

Holy Mackerel! OMG! The New York Times Is Reading The Blog! LOL -- October 4, 2022

Yesterday, completely out of the blue, I posted a stand-alone blog on "two-buck Chuck."

Now, today from The New York Times, I kid you not, I cannot make this up:

Archived.

From the archived, linked article:

Like many producers of popular, inexpensive wines, Bronco was always vague about where Charles Shaw came from. Most likely it was a combination of wine sold on the bulk market, because it was either surplus or not considered up to snuff, supplemented by wine made from Bronco’s vineyards — it owns more than 40,000 acres in California, mostly in the Central Valley, a hot, fertile expanse that is a source of grapes for many inexpensive wines.

Bronco now has a line of more expensive Shaw wines made, Bronco says, from organically grown grapes. That’s not Two-Buck Chuck.

How were the grapes farmed, and who provided the labor? What steps were taken at the winemaking facility to ensure some semblance of consistency, since the sources of the wine changed year to year? We can only guess.

It may not occur to many wine drinkers to ask these questions. But they do matter, especially if you are concerned about farming methods and conditions for agricultural workers. And they matter to people who care about where a wine comes from and whether it expresses the distinctive character of a place.

To be clear, Charles Shaw is not the only wine that raises these questions. A lot of wines, inexpensive and not, are made without regard for the environment and workers. As with fast fashion, the pleasure in the product and the price can obscure serious issues in the manufacturing.

Most people don’t really care about how wine is made or where it comes from. They just want an inexpensive drink that gives them a buzz and tastes good or, at least, doesn’t offend. A smaller group of wine lovers spend a considerable amount of time, energy and money on wine because they find it delicious, as well as rewarding intellectually and aesthetically.

A lot of people would never pay more than a modest price for a wine, regardless of how it’s made. But I do take issue with cynical companies that peddle false messages to consumers to hype their products.

Two-Buck Chuck did not damage American wine culture. But Mr. Franzia relentlessly told American wine drinkers that no wine could possibly be worth more than $10. “Elites,” he argued, were trying to brainwash people with all their talk about terroir and nuances.

“You tell me why someone’s bottle is worth $80 and mine’s worth $2,” he said in a 2009 profile in The New Yorker. “Do you get 40 times the pleasure from it?”

His message not only promoted his own company’s products, it also destroyed the notion that any wine could be better.

People who are passionate about wine knew better, but for others it confirmed a suspicion that wine was all a bunch of foolishness. And for people who might have been curious about wine, it raised doubts.

Charles Shaw and Charles Schwab. I often get them mixed up. LOL. 

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 4, 2022

Loretta Lynn: dies at age 90. 

Ukraine: from Reuters this morning --

• Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian defenses in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, seizing back more territory in areas annexed by Russia and threatening its troops' supply lines. 
• swamped by panic-stricken requests for help to avoid being drafted, Russian lawyers say they are working flat out to offer advice to those at risk of being sent to fight in Ukraine.

Investing: it is incredibly difficult to stick to my investing allocation with oil doing what it's doing.

Shell: frustrated CEO? I think so. Shell, BP, et al trying to go green, and China is eating their lunch. The fact that the CEO of Shell even talks about this speaks volumes about Shell's strategy. Go woke, go broke. Link here. Greta can't be happy, though I doubt she cares much -- now living off her royalties.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $84.10. Held overnight.

Natural gas: $6.387. To say the least, this is most perplexing but it confirms what I've always thought -- operators can bring natural gas quickly to the market.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 456 for the year

38806, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 6-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
36990, conf, Enerplus, Moray 149-94-36C-25H-TF,
35625, conf, Bowline, Lee 151-101-8-5-13H,

Tuesday, October 4, 2022: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 453 for the year
38805, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 6-13-24-158N-100W-MBH-LL,
36989, conf, Enerplus, Shad 149-94-36C-25H,
32123, conf, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-3XH,

RBN Energy: as interest in EVs spikes, revised tax credit boosts plan for US production, part 3. Archived.

By all appearances, the momentum behind electric vehicles (EVs) has done nothing but increase over the last year, boosted by higher gasoline prices and federal legislation intended to speed the pace of EV adoption. 

But the transportation sector's transition to electric power and away from the internal-combustion engine (ICE) won't be easy, and may take a lot longer than many expect or hope, due in part to the significant challenges in finding the hard-to-come-by metals and other materials needed for EV production. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the continuing focus on EVs, China’s current dominance in the global market, and how the newly passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is boosting plans to make EV batteries in the U.S.