Updates
February 12, 2019: continuing the discussion --
I have looked at almost 1,000 scout tickets from file number #28000 to #28700, and then #18000 -- #18037. Some observation, with regard to "Bakken" wells. Again, this is from the scout tickets alone, regarding the "pool" designation:
- almost 100% of scout tickets designate "Bakken" as the pool; the only ones not designated as "Bakken" are about ten "Bakken/Three Forks" pool wells in Keene oil field
- the "Bakken" is designated as the pool regardless of whether the formation targeted is the middle Bakken or any of the benches of the Three Forks
- of the almost 1,000 scout tickets I have looked at so far, one field is unique: every "Bakken" wells in the Keene oil field is designated at "Bakken/Three Forks" on the scout ticket. This is regardless of operator, and extends back to the first "Bakken" well to the most recent "Bakken" well
- I have found not one scout ticket that designates the pool at "Three Forks"
- the fields immediately surrounding the Keene oil field, all use the "Bakken" pool designation and not "Bakken/Three Forks"
- looking at the geologist's reports for Keene oil field, the field has the typical geology seen across the Williston Basin where the Bakken exists: upper Bakken, middle Bakken, lower Bakken, Three Forks (benches may or may not be separated out), Birdbear
- there are a dozen or so "Sanish" wells but that designation is better understood
February 10, 2019:
The original post brought us full circle to an issue that we discussed in the early days of the boom.
A reader responding to the original post has it exactly right.
His interpretation helps explain what I was missing and what I could not figure out and why I was so confused. For now, I will post the reader's interpretation -- which I think is exactly on target -- and perhaps later, make some additional comments. It's a long note, but the bottom line is that the "Bakken" production referenced in the original post includes both the middle Bakken and "most/all" of the Three Forks wells, all benches, drilled during the Bakken boom.
If I correctly understood your comparisons of Bakken and Three Forks production by years, I think there might be something lost
in terminology.
The ND Oil and Gas Division has chosen to use the term “Bakken” for all zones from 50 feet above the upper Bakken shale to
the top of the Bird Bear formation. This group term includes the middle Bakken and all four benches of the Three Forks. In
this case the name Bakken does not mean only Middle Bakken.
When you review the individual well files, the group name “Bakken” includes about 6500 middle Bakken wells and 5500 Three
Forks with some over 80% of these being 1st bench, with balance being mostly 2nd bench and only very few 3rd bench. The
wells in Divide County and southern Billings County are mainly Three Forks wells but by the ND O&G group definition of “Bakken”,
these Three Forks wells are included as Bakken wells. I guess this overlapping naming system makes it easier in writing
and enforcing regulations, but is makes it confusing when trying to get detail on which specific zones of the Bakken/Three Forks
complex are involved in oil and gas production.
The ND O&G production summery includes zones such as Bakken/Three Forks and Three Forks only. Many of
the wells in these categories are old vertical wells which were completed in overlapping zones. Some might be newer horizontal
wells which were drilled on the edges of the basin where the lower Bakken shale is not present and the horizontal well made
intermittent contact with both the middle Bakken and Three Forks bench one.
The Three Forks wells do make a major contribution to ND oil and gas production but their production is often lost in
the group name “Bakken”.
The reader provided his methodology:
FYI, here’s my methodology. I took each township in what appears to be the core area and assigned it an EUR potential. This included the number of pay zones (MB, TF 1, 2, 3) and their quality which
resulted in an ultimate potential of each spacing unit in that township. I did the same for each township in non-core areas. Most of these non-core units have only two pay zones and some only one. It was an
interesting challenge.
Now technology and the price of crude can take over and do their magic!
The last two years have brought unbelievable changes.
Original Post
With Some Editing Following The Reader's Comments Above
30-second elevator speech:
- production from the Bakken, calendar year, 2017: 360 million bbls
- production from the Three Forks, calendar year, 2017: 2 million bbls
- USGS 2013 Survey, technically recoverable oil
- Bakken: 3.7 billion bbls
- Three Forks: 3.7 billion bbls
*********************************************
The Post
Production in the Williston Basin by formation (
link here):
YEAR
|
Bakken
|
Three Forks
|
2017
|
361,131,625
|
1,713,089
|
2016
|
348,961,329
|
2,063,186
|
2015
|
397,684,040
|
3,198,603
|
2014
|
361,654,835
|
3,477,315
|
2013
|
284,554,268
|
1,631,693
|
2012
|
215,490,552
|
735,568
|
2011
|
126,178,063
|
563,459
|
2010
|
85,075,338
|
464,976
|
The graph:
Modified graph: it is impossible to see the Three Forks production in the graphic above, so I modified the graph by changing the middle Bakken production -- moving the decimal to the left by two spots. In other words, in the graph below, for it to be accurate, the middle Bakken production is 100x more than shown. The Three Forks data is unchanged.
Note: this was done quickly, not triple-checked and there are likely to be typographical and facutal errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.
**************************************
Number of Wells Drilled In North Dakota, 2000 - 2017
Includes all wells, including salt water disposal wells and injection wells. Link here.
Year
|
Number of Wells
|
2017
|
1,033
|
2016
|
756
|
2015
|
1,579
|
2014
|
2,350
|
2013
|
2,176
|
2012
|
1,995
|
2011
|
1,300
|
2010
|
862
|
2009
|
522
|
2008
|
581
|
2007
|
359
|
2006
|
317
|
2005
|
240
|
2004
|
223
|
2003
|
216
|
2002
|
164
|
2001
|
190
|
2000
|
138
|
The graphic:
Production:
And imagine: the Bakken is said to be "peanuts" in size compared to the Permian. Can you imagine?
***********************************
Idle Calculations
Using Back-of-the-Envelope
In round numbers, the Bakken/Three Forks first bench is producing 400 million bbls of oil each year.
Over twenty years that translates to 8 billion bbls of crude oil. Not boe but crude oil.
Some folks think that "they" will drill for 70 more years. Let's say 50 years.
Unfettered, it was assumed by some that the Bakken could produce 2.2 million bopd.
Let's say 1.5 million bopd, not much more than the current production rate.
x 365 days = 550 million bbls/year (which is in the current ballpark of 400 million bbls/year).
x 50 years = 27,750 million bbls or nearly 30 billion bbls.
The 2013 USGS survey:
- the mean: 7.4 billion bbls of recoverable oil
- the maximum estimate: 11.4 billion bbls of recoverable oil
Leigh Price's original paper: a reservoir of 500 billion bbls.
Ten percent primary recovery across the entire basin: 50 billion bbls.
The law of big numbers: everything seems to be in the same ball park.
Every one percent of 500 billion bbls = 5 billion bbls = about 275,000 bopd over the 50 years.
Currently producing about 1.3 million bopd, 275,000/1,300,000 = 20% increase in daily production.
