Sunday, July 7, 2019

XTO's Porcupine Federal Wells Are Coming Back On-Line -- Bear Creek -- July 7, 2019

Disclaimer #1: in a long note like this there may be typographical and / or factual errors.

Disclaimer #2: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

 Note: when I see data like this, it is clear to me that folks at "peak oil barrel" have no idea what is going on in the Bakken. See disclaimer #2.

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The Note

The well:
  • 30001, 847, XTO, Porcupine Federal 44X-2H, Bear Creek, t8/15; cum 245K 5/19;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20192119081844327615831121453
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019001290000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20181012821516687191518650
BAKKEN7-20183148234604246947573999682
BAKKEN6-201826355735142006288416841169
BAKKEN5-201818250525621305330916361644

The well:
  • 30002, 2,411, XTO, Porcupine Federal 44X-2D, Bear Creek, t8/15; cum 320K 5/19;
Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201915147914293473101872934
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-201900220000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-201832195331003793690
BAKKEN7-20183144644276222559875033858
BAKKEN6-201826366436761989428325011736

The well:
  • 30003, 1,556, XTO, Porcupine Federal 44X-2G, Bear Creek, t8/15; cum 242K 5/19;
Production: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20192817231674728616321161497
BAKKEN4-2019677304246101
BAKKEN3-201965593233507319106205
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20182012018000
BAKKEN7-20183015991599133922001850315
BAKKEN6-201830296529812263630036792554
BAKKEN5-201831338833812316686733953411
BAKKEN4-201830359735982322553732902200

And, now this one. The well:
  • 30004, 3,027, XTO, Porcupine Federal 44X-2C, Bear Creek, t8/15; cum 272K 5/19; API: 33-025-02749; FracFocus - not re-fracked; no sundry form to explain jump in production;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2019301050710701221441173383210764
BAKKEN4-201915487543272230244299533402
BAKKEN3-20191001000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20181317610000
BAKKEN6-201830427743302032656838352663
BAKKEN5-201831560655902538803139713989
BAKKEN4-201830586557182784591235122349
BAKKEN3-20181211481137604879634232

Then this well:
  • 34559, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2F2-S, Bear Creek, no production data, a Three Forks well; no frack data yet at FracFocus;
The graphic:


Note the distance between #34559 and the wells on the pad at which #30004 is sited. The nearest separation is 0.13 mile (686 feet); the farthest separation is 0.49 mile.
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Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- July 7, 2019

Blackout shuts Venezuela's main refining complex -- ArgusMedia. Data points:
  • blackout on Paraguana Peninsula began yesterday morning (Saturday, July 6, 2019)
  • state-owned refinery: almost one million bopd CRP refining complex
  • also paralyzed terminal (export) operations
  • sounds like a big story, but it really isn't: it had already been operating at 15% nameplate capacity due to weak national power grid for energy supply
  • Venezuela's power crisis peaked on March 7, 2019, with a string of nationwide blackouts that extended through early April
Based on rest of story, it sounds like things may be worse than actually being reported.
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Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 7, 2019

Back in late June, 2019, Apple announced it would move Mac Pro production to China. The $6,000 desktop computer had been the company’s only major device assembled in the U.S. I don't recall if I posted that it was certainly an interesting twist.

Now this, from The Financial Times:
Global consumer electronics makers HP, Dell, Microsoft and Amazon are all looking to shift substantial production capacity out of China, joining a growing exodus that threatens to undermine the country's position as the world's powerhouse for tech gadgets.
HP and Dell, the world's No 1 and No 3 personal computer makers, which together command around 40 per cent of the global market, are planning to reallocate up to 30 per cent of their notebook production out of China, several sources told the Nikkei Asian Review.
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Goes Without Saying


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Illinois Basin Back In The News -- July 7, 2019

Illinois Basin, linked at the sidebar at the right, is now back in the news. [See first comment. The story is six months old but that was the second hit on google when looking for "Bakken oil news today."]

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Two Weeks Ago: Oil Could Go Below $30

Today, over at oilprice:


And, no I did not read the article. LOL. But, I'm wondering, "why not $369 or $314" instead of $325? Wow, it gets tedious.

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Item

It took quite awhile but I finally finished the July, 2019, dockets. 

***************************
Flathead Lake


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It Looks Like Natural Gas Is The Big Story -- July 7, 2019

Link here.

From the linked article:
America is awash in natural gas. In parts of the country there’s hardly a drop to burn.
Earlier this year, two utilities that service the New York City area stopped accepting new natural-gas customers in two boroughs and several suburbs. Citing jammed supply lines running into the city on the coldest winter days, they said they couldn’t guarantee they’d be able to deliver gas to additional furnaces. Never mind that the country’s most prolific gas field, the Marcellus Shale, is only a three-hour drive away.
U.S. gas production rose to a record of more than 37 trillion cubic feet last year, up 44% from a decade earlier. Yet the infrastructure needed to move gas around the country hasn’t kept up. Pipelines aren’t in the right places, and when they are, they’re usually decades old and often too small.
That's as far as I read: I wonder if the article mentioned Cuomo, Schumer, Occasional-Cortex, or Algore.

*******************************
Boeing Update

We talked about this earlier. It will be interesting to see where this story goes.


From the linked article:
Analysts estimate it could take several years to get MAX deliveries back on plan. Hundreds of planes are sitting idle with airlines, more have been built but not yet delivered and Boeing also slowed MAX production in April, effectively delaying future deliveries to some customers.
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NASCAR -- Unknown Wins 2019 Fourth Of July Daytona -- His Life Will Never Be The Same -- July 7, 2019

Updates

Later, 4:59 p.m. CT: surprise, surprise -- I was wrong ...

 
Original Post

 Pretty funny.

If the race is "called" now, Justin Haley wins, followed by four others who generally don't win.

My hunch is that NASCAR / Florida would have called the race by now if Jimmy Johnson or Kyle Busch were leading.

Only 33 laps to the end? If that's correct, the race should have been called by Florida / Daytona / NASCAR rules.

So, we'll see.

Background: prior to the "red flag" the announcers were very clear that by the "rules of the game," the race was over if the weather stopped the race. Enough laps had been run to consider the race complete. Every racer knew that. But the "big names" screwed up and were well behind due to pit stops when the race was stopped due to weather. So, all we had were the "no-names" leading the race when the race stopped.

But the "big names," colluding with NASCAR, have asked that "they" wait it out. It's been said that it takes 2.5 hours to dry out the track if it starts to rain. It is now raining.

Now, the announcers are suggesting that it's a) Sunday night; b) the oval has lights; c) and it's okay to wait ... as long as it takes .. to get the "big names" out there.

What a joke.

If I were Justin Haley I would head for the trailer, take a nap, and let this all play out.

Does anyone remember this year's Kentucky Derby? Those with the money, win. 

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Smartest President In The Modern Era

Hate him, love him, whatever.

He may just be the smartest president in the modern era. Bill Clinton, in his prime, may have been the most politically astute president ever, along with Ronald Reagan, but in all arenas, Trump leads the pack. 

Again, over at Yahoo!
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Initial Production Numbers For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- CLR With Some Huge Wells -- July 7, 2019

Full list of wells coming off confidential list at this post. 

34354, conf, CLR, Hawkinson 16-22HSL l, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193442239162
4-20193671433354
3-20192179324373
1-201911210

34352, conf, CLR, Morris 5-23H2, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193530236920
4-20194817346795
1-20198760

35081, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20196933366074
4-20194375541933
1-201918960

34351, conf, CLR, Morris 6-23H, Oakdale:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193582937960
4-20192573819839
1-201911430

35082, conf, CLR, Morris 8-26H1,  Oakdale:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193692436468
4-20193607835051
1-20197300

33944, conf, Liberty Resources, Robert W 159-94-1-25-2TFHX, North Tioga:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2019223470
4-2019229420
3-2019159250
2-2019237520
1-2019138150

34095, conf, CLR, Colter 8-14H1, Bear Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193006134205
4-20192116717738
3-20192252025429
1-20199460

34094, conf, CLR, Colter 7-14H, Bear Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20193958345448
4-20193062327880
3-20195296359453
2-20199251386
1-20199070
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Week -- Nice To See EOG Back In The Mix -- July 7, 2019

Initial production data for some of these wells at this post.

Monday, July 15, 2019: 22 for the month; 2 for the quarter;
35525, conf, MRO, Hayes 14-31H, 
34354, conf, CLR, Hawkinson 16-22HSL 1
34352, conf, CLR, Morris 5-23H2, 


Sunday, July 14, 2019: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter;
35526, conf, MRO, Gwen 44-36TFH,
31805, conf, EOG, Riverview 25-3031H, 

Saturday, July 13, 2019: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter;
35801, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, 
31806, conf, EOG, Riverview 24-3031H, 

Friday, July 12, 2019: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter;
34351, conf, CLR, Morris 6-23H, 
31807, conf, EOG, Riverview 23-3031H, 

Thursday, July 11, 2019: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter;
35546, conf, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, 
35082, conf, CLR, Morris 8-26H1,
33944, conf, Liberty Resources, Robert W 159-94-1-25-2TFHX, 

Wednesday, July 10, 2019: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter;
35545, conf, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HZ,
31808, conf, EOG, Riverview 22-3031H, 

Tuesday, July 9, 2019: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter;
35544, conf, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HY,
34095, conf, CLR, Colter 8-14H1, 

Monday, July 8, 2019: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter;
None.

Sunday, July 7, 2019: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter;
35543, conf, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HIL,
34094, conf, CLR, Colter 7-14H,

Saturday, July 6, 2019: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter;
None.
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10-5-2 -- July 7, 2019

I'll sort this out later, but if I recall correct, US refined production on a daily basis:
  • gasoline: 10 million bopd
  • distillate: 5 million bopd
  • jet fuel: 2 million bopd (link here, 1.7 million bopd)
From WSJ:
Global airline traffic is set to double over the next 15 years, according to the trade group International Air Transport Association.
I think it will be difficult for jets to transition from jet fuel to batteries, wind, or solar energy, but again, that's just me.
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US Natural Gas Production On Pace For One Of Strongest Refill Seasons Since 1994 -- July 7, 2019

New natural gas links:
The reader also noted this EIA note on US natural gas, dated July 2, 2019:
With the fast start to this injection season, 2019 is on pace to see one of the strongest refill seasons since 1994, even if the rate of increase slows.
For example, if net injections into storage match the five-year (2014–2018) average for the remainder of the refill season, cumulative net injections will total 2,399 Bcf by the end of October. If remaining refill season net injections equal the most recent five-year average:
  • the 2019 refill season would be the fifth-largest refill season since 1994<>
  • net injections for the season would exceed the five-year average fill by 16%
  • working gas stocks would total 3,529 Bcf at the end of the refill season—only about 5% lower than the five-year average
The EIA site for above data: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html. 
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ND Oil Production To Surge -- Lynn Helms -- July 7, 2019

From Geoff Simon this week:
North Dakota crude oil production remained steady in the month of April, and the state's top oil regulator says that will likely continue until additional natural gas processing infrastructure comes on line later this year.

Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said even though oil numbers are steady, natural gas production continues to grow, challenging producers to build facilities to capture and process all the gas. Helms said a lot of construction is happening this summer and fall, which he expects will allow the state's producers to get back into compliance with the North Dakota's 88% gas capture target.

Helms said once the natural gas processing infrastructure is in place, he expects the state will see a surge in oil production, pushing it close to the country of Norway, which produces more than 1.6 million barrels per day.

If North Dakota was a country, it would currently rank 17th in the world in production.
At the start of the boom, Bentek suggested the Bakken could/would/should produce 2.2 million bopd.

Later, see comments below. I had not visited "Peak Oil Barrel" in a long, long time. From the linked article in the comments below:

North Dakota is on an 8-month plateau. No one expected this. Does this mean North Dakota has peaked? There is little doubt that Eagle Ford has peaked. Will North Dakota be the second major shale basin to peak? That was through April, 2019.

Good, bad, or indifferent, it was mentioned years ago that after the "boom," the Bakken would move into the "manufacturing" stage.
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Week 27: June 30, 2019 -- July 6, 2019

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
  • US women's soccer wins World Cup, defeating Netherlands, 2 - 0. 
Top US non-energy story:
Top US energy story:

Top ND non-energy story:

Top ND energy story:

Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
Operations:
Natural gas:
Fracking:
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FWIW: Largest Company In Each State -- July 7, 2019

The "blogger app" won't allow this link so you will have to google fox the largest company in each state.
  • The URL is: https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/the-largest-company-in-your-state
For North Dakota? MDU. Revenue: $4.5 billion.
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