Locator: 46763INV.
Breaking: S&P 500 hit 5,000 but closed just below 5,000, but still an all-time high. NASDAQ closes at a new high. And this is after "the Fed cut" is off the table for March, and likely off the table for May, 2024.
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The Blog
Before we get to the market, front and center over at TheDrudge Report today:
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Now, Back to the Market
Sorry for the delay in blogging. Just too many things going on. But I'm back. LOL. Your worst nightmare.
After this note, I'll be taking a break. Going out to the pool. Although I may blog poolside. We'll see.
Wow, the market continues to surge. Today, maybe not across the board but look at this:
- HSY: up $12 / share; up over 6%; holy mackerel — huge increase in dividend. Whoo-hoo!
- RL: up $20 / share; up almost 14%;
- K: up $2 / share; up almost 4%
- ARM: soars over 60%. Tell me again AI is being hyped; ARM with strong guidance.
Quick:
- who was the Time person of the year?
- what was that person "wearing" on the cover?
- with regard to K: what was the rate of inflation for groceries (food) last year (2023)?
- who was instrumental in convincing Joe Biden to "pause" new LNG export facility permitting?
So, that should get us started.
Personal investing:
- one "word" of advice: "neverquitreading."
Having said that, CNBC is a "must."
I go back and forth on CNBC but right now I'm back to watching CNBC "religiously."
As readers know, I generally stop watching CNBC during periods when the overall market is dropping. It just gets too depressing. Although I'm getting better on that front now that I continue to invest through "thick and thin."
Anyway, I wrote all that to say this.
- the best three hours: 8:00 - 9:00 CT, the first and second hours of Squawk on the Street. Standouts: Jim Cramer and David Faber in the first hour. Sara Eisen in the second hour. That's all I need to watch. The third hour, which I frequently miss, Scott Wapner on Half-Time Report.
- without question, Sara Eisen is the best interviewer on CNBC. [One of the worse. if not the worst: Becky Quick. Perhaps just as bad, Phil LeBeau.]
- Sara Eisen may be CNBC's best presenter overall but she has stiff competition. The three best, in order: David Faber, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli.
- top tier but not among the top three: Scott Wapner. Close on his heels, Carl Quintanilla.
- best "specialists": Bob Pisani, Rick Santelli.
- top CNBC entertainer: Jim Cramer.
- panelists: too many to name, many I don't know by name, but my favorite -- Josh Brown.
Back to Sara Eisen. This morning she went on a ten-minute (probably not that long) extemporaneous, soliloquy (riff) on Ralph Lauren. That one segment was worth the price of my monthly cable subscription.
The best guest today: Bruce Richards. Those who missed that interview today ... well, what can I say:
- explained why China is in a world of hurt and how China will respond (good news for US consumer)
- the Fed, very, very specific:
- nine cuts
- over the next two years
- from the current 5% to 2.5% over the next two years
- first rate cut: no sooner than June, 2024
AAPL: one of Tim Cook’s biggest mistakes — not “working with” Epic / Fortnite. A huge lost opportunity. Bob Iger’s fate — saved by Epic.
The biggest risk to the market:
- if the market overheats, look for an increase in the Fed rate
- the Fed doesn't do "cuts" in the current scenario — has never done cuts in a roaring economy;
- so, the Fed rate:
- an increase in the Fed rate this year: 10% chance and the likelihood is increasing;
- higher for longer: 80% chance
- first rate cut in March: 0%
- first rate cut in June: 5%
- first rate cut after November election: 5%
- "Oksol's dot plot"
The market today:
- WTI: $75.85. Up $2.00 today.
- COP: up 1.5% today; up $1.80; announced March, 2024, quarterly dividend in line, 58 cents; pays slightly more than 4%;
- CVX: up slightly; pays 4.3%;
- UNP: down again, two days in a row, after a bump three days ago; down 08% today; pays 2%.
- AAPL: down 0.% today; down $1.21 / share
- NVDA: this is just crazy -- up another 6% today; up almost $4 / share today; absolutely crazy
- AMD: down a bit
- MPC: down a bit, but look at its six-month run:
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One Word: Apple (AAPL)
To the best of my knowledge this is not an issue with Apple Pay (Wallet) and Apple is paying upwards of 5% for cash held.
