DAPL Update -- March 13, 2017

Most recent court filing by Dakota Access, LLC, suggests oil will be introduced into the line under the lake between Monday (March 20, 2017) and Wednesday (March 22, 2017). Company is reaming the hole one last time this week before pulling the pipe through. No mention made whether the pipe is US made or not. Just a minor point. Again, a huge "thank you" to a reader for providing the link for the update.

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New England Electricity Currently "Free"

2 cents/MWH. Can't get much cheaper than that. Was $160/MWH early this morning. [About one hour later -- now 11:17 p.m. Central Time zone, Iso Express up to $45/ MWH. Huge volatility. Several story lines here, but the one I'm interested in right now is watching winter storm Stella roll in.

Green Energy Overreach? -- Even New Mexico Residents Can Figure This One Out -- March 13, 2017

In New Mexico, on the books: 20% renewable by 2020.

Cost of electricity in New Mexico: 9.62 cents / kwh -- not too far off the national average.

New Mexico considering 80% by 2040 (same link as first link). Voted down in committee.

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The Basketball Page

Wow. This is amazing. Two NBA conferences: west and east.

In the west, my favorite team, the San Antonio Spurs.

Standings:

• with 52 wins, is #1 Golden State.
• [update: with win over Atlanta, San Antonio Spurs to 52 wins, even with #1 Golden State]
• third place: 6.5 games behind -- Houston, with 46 wins.

Truly amazing. Love it.

Eastern Conference? I don't follow. I hardly follow the western conference any more.

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Applebee's

The one thing I hate to miss any weekend is a NASCAR race. All week I look forward to NASCAR. So when there's a conflict, I always look for a solution.

Yesterday was typical. All week I had been looking forward to the Las Vegas NASCAR race. Nothing on the schedule to interfere with the my opportunity to watch it. Then, at the last minute the "soccer gods" schedule a soccer practice an hour east of where we live, to begin about the same time the race is to begin. The last minute practice was scheduled to "make up" for an earlier practice canceled due to inclement weather.

But "the NASCAR gods" are on my side. After driving 40-some miles to drop off Olivia at soccer practice, I head straight for Applebee's on Main Street, Rowlette, Texas.

I get there in plenty of time; strike up a conversation with the bartender.

The bartender, I can tell, is not of Norwegian descent. A great bartender. I tell him I'll be there for two hours. I will have a small beer, and then order something off the menu, while waiting for our granddaughter to complete her practice.

And I would like the big-TV screen to be on the NASCAR race. Done.

After awhile, I ask the bartender where he grew up, his hometown?

He says New Orleans.

He says he moved to Texas after "Katrina."

He says it was the best thing that ever happened to him. He lost his home; his mother lost her home to Katrina.

He was driving home from Ferguson, MO, back to New Orleans, the day the hurricane hit. And then he lost it all. His mother also lost her home.

He was evacuated to Texas. I asked him if he entered Texas through Houston or Dallas. He said Dallas. He reiterated it was the best thing that ever happened to him.

He loves his job and he has a house.

I don't know how it came up in conversation. I know I didn't ask specifically. He says his mother and he were able to get re-settled in Texas, the best thing that ever happened to him.

He was about 30 years old, I suppose. Katrina hit in 2005, at which time he would have been about 22 years old.

How could his mother and he get resettled in Texas?

It turns out his mother at age 17 -- repeat, at 17 years old, a new mother -- bought shares of Walmart.

Doing the math, I assume she bought shares of Walmart back in 1980 or thereabouts. Posted earlier:

WMT: back in 1980 shares were selling for 29 cents, I believe, if I'm reading the chart correctly. If accurate, I assume that's based on split-adjusted shares/prices. We'll get back to this later. Wlamart shares are selling for around $70 now. Around $46 in 2005. Hold that thought. I will get back to it later.

So, how does a new mom at age 17 afford shares in WMT. I didn't ask, but I will bet she was a "checker"/cashier at a local Walmart in the New Orleans area. She must have listened closely to her manager, about the opportunity to buy shares in WMT.

I don't know.

All I could think to myself, "what a great country."

Whiting To Report Three More Nice Rolla Federal Wells; WPX To Report Another Nice Behr Well -- March 13, 2017

Active rigs:

	3/13/2017	03/13/2016	03/13/2015	03/13/2014	03/13/2013
Active Rigs	45	32	112	191	186

Five wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:

• 30828, 597, WPX, BEHR 30-31HU, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 6.1 million lbs; t1/17; cum 20K over 23 days;
• 31707, 2,546, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-4TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t9/16; cum 115K 1/17;
• 31710, 2,426, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 7.1 million lbs, t10/16; cum 139K 1/17;
• 32329, 2,861 (NDIC has a typo), Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, Twin Valley, Three Forks, 35 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/16; cum 156K 1/17;
• 32755, SI/NC, XTO, Bear Creek 31X-3BXC, Bear Creek, no production data,

No new permits.

Three permits renewed:

• CLR: three Micahlucas permits, Dunn County.

One dry hole:

• 29256, dry, Cynosure Energy, Glenn Paetz, a Madison well, a wildcat, Mountrail County; this was a few miles east of the very prolific Bakken-Parshall field (but it was clearly east of the Bakken); not sure what the future holds for the Madison in this area; nothing else is going on in this area; a true wildcat

Behr wells currently coming off confidential list are at this post.

Whiting's Rolla Federal wells are tracked here.

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30828, see above, WPX, BEHR 30-31HU, Reunion Bay, producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	20276	3375

31707, see above, Whiting, Rolla Federal 31-3-4TFH, Twin Valley:

	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	23624	53115
12-2016	30777	54394
11-2016	35478	68515
10-2016	17854	38616
9-2016	7328	15115

31710, see above, Whiting, Rolla Federal 21-3-1TFH, Twin Valley:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	25135	66046
12-2016	32909	78526
11-2016	39714	97851
10-2016	36805	77907
9-2016	4481	9441

32329, see above, Whiting, Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU, Twin Valley:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2017	27610	57235
12-2016	39007	78877
11-2016	42769	96398
10-2016	39202	91968
9-2016	6356	9250

Speaking Of Free Rides: Looks Like Kuwait Is Getting A Free Ride; Worth Repeating -- Kuwait Has Added Almost 50% More Active Rigs In The Past Year; Kuwait Has Added 34% More Rigs Since The Announcement Was Made To Cut Production -- March 13, 2017

Posted earlier today, but worth repeating. Note the huge jump in active rigs by Kuwait.

Kuwait becomes first OPEC nation to call for longer oil cuts -- from Bloomberg.

By the way, a reader spotted this: in February, 2017, Kuwait activated 7 more drilling rigs, going from 52 in January, 2017, to 59, in February, 2017. Something tells me OPEC is keeping a couple of set of books on oil production. The source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsintl.

In fact, as long as we are at it, here are the number of active rigs Kuwait has/had according to BHI:

• February, 2017: 59 -- another huge jump again in rigs in February
• January, 2017: 52 -- note huge jump in rigs after November announcement
• December, 2016: 44
• November, 2016: 47 -- announcement -- OPEC cut
• October, 2016: 48
• September, 2016: 48
• August, 2016: 47
• March, 2016: 41
• February, 2016: 43
• January, 2016: 40 

For those who like statistics:

• from 44 to 52, an 18% jump in the number of active rigs, month-over-month
• from 52 to 59, a 13% jump, month-over-month
• from 44 to 59, an incredible 34% jump in the number of active rigs since the November meeting to cut production
• from 40 (January, 2016) to 59 (February, 2017): a 48% jump in the number of active rigs

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

A huge thank you to a reader for bringing this to our attention. It speaks volumes.  

Most Recent Monthly Petroleum Drilling Report Has Been Released -- April, 2017, Data

The link will take you to a pdf: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf.

New Poll: WIll The Fed Raise Rates This Week? -- March 13, 2017

Poll at the sidebar at the right.

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Top Gun

Research: Solving A Drone Problem

Robber Fly -- Top Gun Of The Fly World  University Of Cambridge (UK) Published March 9, 2017

Could The GOP Come Out Looking Good With Regard To ObamaCare -- The Political Page, T+52 -- March 13, 2017

Declare victory and shut down Congress for all of April, instead of staying in session just eight days as it is.

Fact: everyone knows ObamaCare will die one way or the other. Some advocate doing nothing and letting ObamaCare simply die on its own.

Alt-left: Pelosi, Schumer, et al think they are in a win-win situation. If ObamaCare implodes and the GOP has done nothing to prevent the debacle, the GOP will be blamed. If GOP assumes the mantle of US healthcare, by definition the GOP has lost.

It's all about the narrative: the GOP should simply say that too many folks -- including the "Deep State" and the mainstream media love ObamaCare so the GOP will leave it alone. Declare victory and move on. Continue to call US healthcare ObamaCare and it will be the gift that keeps on giving. The only ones reminding us of the Trump/GOP pledge to "repeal and replace" will be the alt-left media (which will blame Trump/GOP regardless) and the randites. [The randites are not to be confused with the Ronettes.]

Fallout: the fallout of "declaring victory, moving on" can hardly be any worse than stepping into this pile of manure.

Walking In The Rain, The Ronettes

Kuwait: First OPEC Nation To Call For Longer Oil Cuts -- March 13, 2017

OPEC is already in trouble with $49 oil. When the US raises interest rates, cost to borrow money for OPEC countries will rise (no link, easy to find).

Kuwait becomes first OPEC nation to call for longer oil cuts -- from Bloomberg.

By the way, see first comment: in February, 2017, Kuwait activated 7 more drilling rigs, going from 52 in January, 2017, to 59, in February, 2017. Something tells me OPEC is keeping a couple of set of books on oil production. The source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsintl.

In fact, as long as we are at it, here are the number of active rigs Kuwait has/had according to BHI:

• February, 2017: 59 -- another huge jump again in rigs in February
• January, 2017: 52 -- note huge jump in rigs after November announcement
• December, 2016: 44
• November, 2016: 47 -- announcement -- OPEC cut
• October, 2016: 48
• September, 2016: 48
• August, 2016: 47
• March, 2016: 41
• February, 2016: 43
• January, 2016: 40 

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The Apple Page

Tech support in the computer sector, from Laptap Mag, via MacRumors: Apple is #1, by a large margin. Microsoft in fourth place; Dell in 6th place; Samsung in 9th of ten places. Look how long folks spent with HP to get their question answered or problem solved (almost half an hour vs six minutes for Apple; even Microsof was over 20 minutes to answer a question/solve a problem):

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The Government Works In Mysterious Ways

I filed our 2015 federal taxes before the April 15th deadline (in 2016), on/about April 10th (I've forgotten the exact date; I could look it up, but not worth the effort).

I received a note from the IRS sometime during the month of August (2016) that I was due a refund (that's another story for another time) "assuming no new taxes were due."

Today, let's see, this is March 13, 2017, we received the refund from the IRS. With a bit of interest. 

Just in time to pay our 2016 income taxes.

From The US Govt File: Buy HIgh, Sell Low -- March 13, 2017

From The Oil & Gas Journal, data points with comments:

• seven companies awarded contracts for SPR oil
• 10 million bbls 
• 10 million bbls = one day's US production
• tells me how inconsequential the SPR has become (or maybe always was)
• seven companies, the usual suspects, including Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero
• but also, PetroChina (so, the US sells oil at a very low price to enemy #1; LOL)
• deliveries to take place May and June (2017)
• one wonders how much the seven companies are more interested in "contango" than in supply?

Backwardation: immediate demand for oil, certainly we are not in that position now, which means we are in a contango situation, with the potential for huge gains by these seven companies.

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Pipelines, Pristine Waterways, and Native American Religious Rites

From Twitter:

Then There Were Four -- March 13, 2017

Updates

Later, 12:41 p.m. Central Time: a couple of hours after posting the original post below, The Drudge Report banner headline: US Navy simulates attack on NKorea.

Original Post 

Yesterday I added another region to the "on the brink" link at the sidebar at the right: NOKO-SOKO-Japan-China.

Today I see two new headlines over at Drudge:

• US deploys attack drones to South Korea
• Japan plans to send it largest warship to South China Sea 

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Expansion

I don't know how much folks are talking about this elsewhere and I've simply missed it. All these years I assumed the "Iron Curtain" came down in Germany because Reagan/Gorbachev made nice. That may have been 90% of it; it may have been 10% of it. Who knows/who knew? But at the end of the day,  one wonders whether it would have happened without the blessing of West Germany. It cost West Germany an incredible amount of money to absorb East Germany. But if one looks at this geopolitical event as a "corporate" merger or takeover, it made a lot of sense in the long run. West Germany, playing second fiddle to France and Great Britain had nowhere to expand.

Except in one direction. East. West Germany needed lebensraum and had nowhere to expand. The rest is history.

Take that analogy to current situation in South Korea. South Korea, even more than West Germany in the 1980s, is bursting at the seams. It cannot grow internally any more. Once you get past all the little, inconsequential countries, population density/square mile:

• Taiwan, 1,849
• UK, 650
• South Korea, 501
• Netherlands, 491
• Japan, 399
• Belgium, 343
• Israel, 319
• Germany, 235
• France, 100
• US, 84
• Russia, 22
• Canada, 3
• Australia, 2

The Market And Energy Page, T+52 -- March 13, 2017

Opening

Dow: down 40 points.

WTI: flat at $48.45

Ford to build SUVs in China.

Huge, huge story: Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinpin at Mar-a-Lago. Camelot rising. This is a huge story on so many levels. Planned meeting over April 6 - 7. If I did the calculations correctly this will be days 66 - 67 of Trump's presidency. Not only in the first 100 days but incredibly early in his administration. President Obama did not meet with Xi (in the US) until well into his second administration; in fact, by September, 2015, Obama was pretty much a lame Peking duck. (Yes, Obama was the first president to visit China during his first term but the event was considered "rocky," and things had not improved by the time of his second visit in his second term -- The Washington Post). Trump will probably become the first president to have met all major world leaders face-to-face in his first 100 days of office, and well before his own party has confirmed all his cabinet appointees.

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Futures

Oil touches three-month low. Pre-market trading around $48.25; down slightly.

Futures: Dow was down slightly overnight, but about an hour before opening, up 12 points.

Best convenience store: first-ever ranking by GasBuddy.com.  Ranking based on cleanest restrooms, best coffee, best customer services, and, best overall. Kwik Trip was #1 in all except #2 in best coffee. Wawa rated to have best coffee. AAFES (Army & Air Force Exchange Service) ranked in top 5 in only one category: cleanest restrooms. Not surprising, for any number of reasons. I never recall seeing coffee, much less buying coffee, at an AAFES gas station. I don't recall ever receiving ANY customer service at an AAFES gas station. Often quite the opposite. I seldom felt welcomed at an AAFES station. Weird. But that was mostly overseas. I have visited AAFES stations (recently) in only a few locations (northwest of Boston, and in Ft Worth). The link also has highlighting users' choices in each state.

Bakken moose: human interest story at The Williston Herald. Second story in as many days about moose in Boomtown, USA. It's interesting that with the boom in human activity in the Bakken, the moose have also been arriving. Counterintuitive, but years ago we saw the same thing with wildlife and the Alaskan pipeline.

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Not Smarter Than A Fifth Grader

This is Olivia's winning Bananagram board which "beat" her grandmother's board. Olivia is a fifth grader:

Blizzard To Hit Northeast -- March 13, 2017

Iso Express: over $150/MWH earlier this morning; now about $110.

Active rigs:

	3/13/2017	03/13/2016	03/13/2015	03/13/2014	03/13/2013
Active Rigs	45	32	112	191	186

RBN Energy: US crude oil prices, inventories, and the supply/demand balance.

The latest sharp drop in crude oil prices, which was blamed in part on unexpected gains in already record-high U.S. inventories, is a stark reminder of the importance of understanding and routinely calculating estimates of the oil supply/demand balance. Only by keeping up with the ever-changing relationship between crude availability and crude consumption—and by anticipating shifts in that relationship—can oil traders and others whose daily success or failure depends on crude pricing trends make informed decisions. Today we begin a blog series on the modeling of U.S. crude oil supply and demand, and the sourcing of input data.

Scott Adams: previously posted, could cognitive scientists eliminate ISIS?