Friday, October 18, 2024

Week 42: October 14, 2024 -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48600TOPSTORIES.

Top story

  • IDF takes out  leader of Hamas, a real monster, #1 on Israel’s hit list.
  • Mideast: on the brink of all-out war
    • Israel agrees not to attack oil, nuclear facilities in Iran
      • in returns, THAAD missile protection with US troops for Israel; 
      • US to send second THAAD unit

Top international non-energy story:

  • Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

  • Iran builds oil export terminal outside of Strait of Hormuz

Top national non-energy story:

  • 17 days until the election -- swing states: PA, NC, GA
  • US equity markets continue to break records;

Top national energy story:

  • WTI drops below $70

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- more records -- broad rally --

Marlo Operating: New Operator In North Dakota -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48599B. 

WTI: $69.22.

Active rigs: 39.

Two new permits, #41257 and #41258:

  • Operators: Silver Hill Energy Operating; Marlo Operating Company
  • Fields: Gros Ventre (Burke County); wildcat (Bowman County)
  • Comments:
    • Silver Hill Energy has a permit for an Oliver well, NWNW 20-159-93, 
      • to be sited 489 FNL and 738 FWL;
    • Marlo Operating has a permit for a Tosco Branch 2 well, NENE 19-129-103, 
      • to be sited 800 FNL and 676 FEL, Bowman County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40160, 6,717, MRO, Susie USA 14-20H, McKenzie County;
  • 40543, 1,016, EOG, Wayzetta 408-1336H, Mountrail County; note the chronolotic number of this well;

Operator of interest: Marlo Operating; website.

  • website copyright: 2024
  • HQ: Fort Worth, TX
    • Ed O'Connor: managing partner (on Linked In)
  • NDIC, well search: Marlo Operating Company, LLC
  • first and only permit:
    • 41258, TOSCO Branch 2
      • NENE 19-129-103
  • nearest producing well
    • 13869, 68, CLR, Downing 1-23, State Line, formation: Red River, t12/95; cum 284K 8/24; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER8-20243165466333863270327
RED RIVER7-20242438842723831940194
RED RIVER6-20243064065636123200320
RED RIVER5-20243164365633083210321
RED RIVER4-20243064665333093230323
RED RIVER3-20243166466435873320332
RED RIVER2-20242959366132582960296

Initial production in 1995:

ED RIVER1-19973010381378837631000
RED RIVER12-1996301053665821031000
RED RIVER11-19963011141094838632800
RED RIVER10-199625930875853727300
RED RIVER9-199630122513291084636000
RED RIVER8-19962913431510737439500
RED RIVER7-1996311936169877796210244
RED RIVER6-1996302112225416486210244
RED RIVER5-1996312361224477036940147
RED RIVER4-1996302473244876687270180
RED RIVER3-1996312548255379747490192
RED RIVER2-1996292389260579827020147
RED RIVER1-199631231122339562617022
RED RIVER12-1995278264469193000

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MRO -- Susie USA


Well of interest
:

  • 40160, 6,717, MRO, Susie USA 14-20H, McKenzie County; see this post for the incredible wells on this pad.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202430549075486236844705147027310
BAKKEN7-2024204939449305354924220441826282

Halftime Report -- CNBC -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48598HTR.

HTR: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to "Halftime Report" on CNBC.   

Definitions (1):

  • hard landing: Fed goes back to raising rates, time line -- through end of 2025
  • no landing: Fed -- no more rate changes in 2024 / 2025
  • soft landing: Fed continues to drop rates, time line -- through end of 2025

It sounds like a lot of folks are "mis-using" the terms "soft landing" and "no landing."

It appears some folks use this:

Definitions (2):

  • hard landing: Fed goes back to raising rates, time line -- through end of 2025
  • no landing: Fed continues to drop rates, time line -- through end of 2025
  • soft landing: Fed -- no more rate changes in 2024 / 2025: 

I prefer  Definitions (1).

Still no talk about huge drivers:

  • RMDs
  • inter-generational wealth transfer
  • DINKs now in their 60s

25-year-old in 1985 are now ... wait for it ... 64 years old. So much money.

Car prices collapsing. Link here. Folks focused on $100,000 Teslas and $100,000 pickup trucks and feel they are out of the car market for a new car. In fact, it's easy to find any number of makes/models in the $31,000 to $37,000 range. Three-year loans, free money, at 1.9%. Five-year loans not much worse. In fact, looking at monthly payments where interest rates play such a big role, it's hard justifying a used car at 9% interest vs a new car at 2%. Some hyperbole, but not much

"Generational opportunity" -- phrase used by Jensen Huang. In other words, folks in their 20's, 30's, and 40's may never see an investing opportunity like we see now. Again, Jensen's words, not mine.

LDCs: hard to fight "this stock." "This stock" being Nvidia.

Apple: "the Judge" has it exactly right. A lot of folks have been burned fighting the Apple story. Most notable: Carter Worth and Dan Nathan on "Fast Money," CNBC.

*************************
Energy Transformation

Electrification continues.

Driven by the fourth industrial revolution.

$4 trillion between now and 2050.

Energy: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box -- wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear.

Utilities up almost 40% year to date (need to fact-check).

Power: GE Vernova, Vistra, Quanta Services, Eaton Corp PLC.

************************
The Fourth Industrial Revolution 

AI in all its various forms.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Eisen Hour -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48625EISENHOUR. 

Eisen hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Sara's first hour on CNBC.

First mention! Apple and Nvidia powering the NASDAQ this morning. 

AI answers on google: absolutely incredible. I had a very specific question about one of our automobiles and Google AI provided an incredible answer -- probably better than the auto manufacturer's website or the owner's manual. 

Easy-Money policy continues: agree completely even if the Fed pauses.

EV charging mandates coming: will target housing rentals and apartments. Link here. We're in good shape. Our apartment complex appears to have an adequate number of charging stations for tethered vehicles. 

Nuclear: OKLO -- OpenAI -- Sam Altman -- surges 20% today -- on top of 10% previously --


**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 4 -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48624CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

David Faber has the day off. Just Carl and Jim.  

WTI: drops below $70. Peace must have broken out in the Mideast.

Market opening: it could be a huge day for tech. Again. Dow is negative in pre-market trading, but indications suggest it could be in the green by the end of the day. The one I'm watching today? AAPL. Surprise, surprise! LOL. Reminder: iPhone 16 sales surge in China. First sales report -- the "16" was introduced in China three weeks ago. Biggest conundrum: what is Buffett up to?

Goldilocks: Carl just used that word. Whoo-hoo! Carl's "binder" continues to impress me.

Cramer now doing a report on Apple -- still doesn't understand how analysts missed this one. AAPL opens up $2.66; up 1.31%. But it's gonna be up and down for the next two hours. Note, multiple:

  • Trane: 39
  • AAPL: 35.
  • okay.

Goldilocks: Cramer just mentioned that word. Whoo-hoo! 

SLB: still touts, pumps, pushes SLB. Says SLB is the best in their sector. And, get this, references RNB Energy this morning! Which I've already posted -- some hours ago!

DIS: Cramer still "hopeful" on Disney. Likes an influencer by the name of Bob Iger.

Amazon: mandates workers come back to office full time -- if workers balk, they can find work elsewhere. Wow. Now that Amazon has done this, the rest will follow. The word is getting back to Jeff Bezos that a lot of engineers working from home are now working for two -- and perhaps as many as three -- tech companies. Managers running into a lot of engineers working from home who can't explain what they're working on. 

Autos, multiples:

  • GM: 5.
  • F: 12.

Chart of the day:


Polestar: I was going to post the Polestar chart also but absolutely not worth it.

Tesla, Model S: price plummeting. Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 3 -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48623CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

David Faber has the day off. Just Carl and Jim. 

#1 story: CVS tumbles after CEO shakeup, outlook. The challenge? Amazon. Only Walmart has been able to fend off Amazon. 

Netflix: up 7% in pre-market trading. For me, goes back to the early days of the blog. After the Bakken, Netflix may be the #1 "subject" on the blog. It all began, for me, with a pretty animated discussion with my Harvard-MBA-son-in-law. He agrees that I won that argument. His choices: Roku and Vudu (now Fandango). Netflix -- all the way back to 2013:

Weather: link here. Yes, I know, it's a slow news day. LOL. That will change quickly.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

The Blog -- 50,000 Stand-Alone Posts -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48622BLOG.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48621CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Grocery prices falling fast in north Texas

  • salmon: usually $9.99 / lb; now $7.77
  • turkey: 88 cents / pound -- less than Thanksgiving price last year
  • eggs: $1.50 / dozen

Spirit Aerosystems: will furlough workers. Machinists' strike at Boeing has completely disrupted Spirit's production timeline. Shares down over 1% in pre-market trading.

Boeing: biggest financial story this year? Probably not, but it's a huge story. And not a good story.

Healthcare premiums are soaring. Link to TWSJ.


Medicare: link to TWSJ.


**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1 -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48620CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Pre-market: AAPL still trading up almost $5 / share; up almost 2%.

For investing, Cramer's two favorite stocks? AAPL and NVID. AAPL could have a big day today. Dan Nathan over at "Fast Money" has consistently missed AAPL. Has done his listeners a real disservice.



Brookings Institution spokesperson on CNBC this a.m.: "....only later does free money / government debt lead to higher inflation." Wow.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

LDCs Lag A/C -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48619LDCS.

Heat pumps: yesterday on the blog

Now, today, over at Bloomberg:

My hunch: Will Mathis will be surprised. Link here. Getting his information from IEA which has its own agenda.

Worse: investors run the risk of mis-reading this article. Article's focus is on the pace of the AI infrastructure buildout -- the amount of money that will be spent on the AI infrastructure buildout is a completely different issue.

*****************************
Discount Brokers

Hood: time for another look. Social media suggests younger folks are "head-over-heels" on this announcement. The more I read the more it appears that for one-stop shopping it's coming down to Schwab vs Robinhood.

TGIF -- Friday -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48618B.

IRA: IRS has clarified rules on inherited IRAs. Link here. Bottom line: beneficiaries will see need for much larger distributions in 2025 -- and that comes after an incredible 2024 -- stock market probably pushed some IRAs up 20 - 30% y/y -- inherited IRAs will have appreciated significantly -- EOY 2024 basis will result in huge distribution requirement and great news for government/IRS.

Pre-market trading suggests tech could have an incredible day. What's up? Apple news -- iPhone sales soar in China. 

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.40.

Sunday, October 20, 2024: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 551 for the year
40266, conf, Silver Hill Energy, CO 158-92-7-6-1MBH,

Saturday, October 19, 2024: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter, 550 for the year
None.
Friday, October 18, 2024: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter, 550 for the year
26027
, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-11H
26025, conf, Grayson Mill,, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-4H,
22198, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-3H, 

RBN Energy: carbon-capture projects reach major milestones, but not all the news is good.

Progress in the carbon-capture industry can be slow, given the extended permitting process for sequestration wells, uncertain long-term outlook and skepticism about the real-world effectiveness in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The past several weeks have been a better-than-usual period for advocates of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), with significant milestones reached for a trio of important projects under development, but not all the news was positive. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what’s happening with a handful of key CCS projects.

Apple And Sempra -- October 18, 2024

Locator: 48617INV.

Apple, link here. Absolutely not on my bingo card.


SRE: one of my biggest holdings, but completely forgot about it. Maybe more on this later. Incredible for a utility. Nuclear is getting all the press lately, but it's going to be the utilities that thrive, and natural gas will be the bridge. Earliest we could see SM(nuclear)Rs making a dent: 2030. That's five years of waiting around.

Perhaps one of my favorite holdings: RACE. Also this, link here. Ferrari's $4-million F80 to be the "ultimate collector's piece." I assume it's already "sold out." First hypercar in eleven years. And get this: a hybrid -- a hybrid powertrain that combines a V6 turbo engine and three electric motors; nearly 1200 hp when the ICE pairs with the EV powertrain -- making it the most powerful Ferrari ever.